Genetically Determined Height and Coronary Artery Disease

Background: The nature and underlying mechanisms of an inverse association between adult height and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) are unclear. 
Methods: We used a genetic approach to investigate the association between height and CAD, using 180 height-associated genetic variants. We tested the association between a change in genetically determined height of 1 SD (6.5 cm) with the risk of CAD in 65,066 cases and 128,383 controls. Using individual-level genotype data from 18,249 persons, we also examined the risk of CAD associated with the presence of various numbers of height-associated alleles. To identify putative mechanisms, we analyzed whether genetically determined height was associated with known cardiovascular risk factors and performed a pathway analysis of the height-associated genes. 
Results: We observed a relative increase of 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4 to 22.1; P<0.001) in the risk of CAD per 1-SD decrease in genetically determined height. There was a graded relationship between the presence of an increased number of height-raising variants and a reduced risk of CAD (odds ratio for height quartile 4 versus quartile 1, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.84; P<0.001). Of the 12 risk factors that we studied, we observed significant associations only with levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides (accounting for approximately 30% of the association). We identified several overlapping pathways involving genes associated with both development and atherosclerosis. 
Conclusions: There is a primary association between a genetically determined shorter height and an increased risk of CAD, a link that is partly explained by the association between shorter height and an adverse lipid profile. Shared biologic processes that determine achieved height and the development of atherosclerosis may explain some of the association. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.)

Identification of Road Irregularities via Vehicle Accelerations

A periodic monitoring of the pavement condition facilitates a cost-effective distribution of the resources available for maintenance of the road infrastructure network. The task can be accurately carried out using profilometers, but such an approach is generally expensive. This paper presents a method to collect information on the road profile via accelerometers mounted in a fleet of non-specialist vehicles, such as police cars, that are in use for other purposes. It proposes an optimisation algorithm, based on Cross Entropy theory, to predict road irregularities. The Cross Entropy algorithm estimates the height of the road irregularities from vehicle accelerations at each point in time. To test the algorithm, the crossing of a half-car roll model is simulated over a range of road profiles to obtain accelerations of the vehicle sprung and unsprung masses. Then, the simulated vehicle accelerations are used as input in an iterative procedure that searches for the best solution to the inverse problem of finding road irregularities. In each iteration, a sample of road profiles is generated and an objective function defined as the sum of squares of differences between the ‘measured’ and predicted accelerations is minimized until convergence is reached. The reconstructed profile is classified according to ISO and IRI recommendations and compared to its original class. Results demonstrate that the approach is feasible and that a good estimate of the short-wavelength features of the road profile can be detected, despite the variability between the vehicles used to collect the data.

Electron-impact ionization of Al2+

We report on a nonperturbative R-matrix with PseudoStates (RMPS) calculation for the electron-impact ionization cross section of the ground state of Al2+. We include both the direct ionization of the 3s and 2p subshells and the indirect ionization from the 2p subshell. This calculation, thus, includes extra decay channels for the indirect-ionization process not included in previous RMPS calculations. This lowers the total-ionization cross section, resulting in closer agreement with the most recent experimental measurements. This calculation also shows better agreement with the position and height of the resonant-excitation double autoionization features seen in the experiment.

The effect of stress on egg quality in farmed Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua L.)

Dissertação de mestrado, Aquacultura, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2011

A qualitative description of soil parameters variation due to a prescribed fire in Portuguese northwestern forests using Fuzzy Boolean Nets — The case study of Cabreira mountain

In this paper we study the modifications that occurred in some forest soil properties after a prescribed fire. The research focused on the alterations of soil pH, soil moisture and soil organic matter content during a two-year span, from 2008 to 2009. The study site is located in Anjos, Vieira do Minho municipality, a forest site that has suffered from recurrent wildfires for several decades. Furze (Ulex, sp.), broom (Cytisus, sp.), gorse (Chamaespartum tridentatum) and a very few disperse adult pine (Pinus sylvestris) are the predominant vegetation type in the study area. The average height of this shrub vegetation is around 1.5 m. The prescribed fire was conducted by the National Forestry Authority (AFN) in November 2008. Fuzzy Boolean Nets (FBN) were used to evaluate the alteration in soil parameters when compared with adjacent spots where: i) no fire occurrence was registered since 1998; ii) fire occurrence was registered in 2008; and iii) vegetation pruning by mechanical cut was done in Spring six months prior to the prescribed fire event. Results suggest that in the particular case of the studied site, Anjos, the observed soil properties alterations cannot be related with the prescribed fire.

Measurements of environmental background radiation in the surrounding area of a coal-fired power plant

Certain materials used and produced in a wide range of non-nuclear industries contain enhanced activity concentrations of natural radionuclides. In particular, electricity production from coal is one of the major sources of increased exposure to man from enhanced naturally occurring materials. Over the past decades there has been some discussion about the elevated natural background radiation in the area near coal-fired power plants due to high uranium and thorium content present in coal. This work describes the methodology developed to assess the radiological impact due to natural radiation background increasing levels, potentially originated by a coal-fired power plant’s operation. Gamma radiation measurements have been done with two different instruments: a scintillometer (SPP2 NF, Saphymo) and a gamma ray spectrometer with energy discrimination (Falcon 5000, Canberra). A total of 40 relevant sampling points were established at locations within 20 km from the power plant: 15 urban and 25 suburban measured stations. The highest values were measured at the sampling points near to the power plant and those located in the area within the 6 and 20 km from the stacks. This may be explained by the presence of a huge coal pile (1.3 million tons) located near the stacks contributing to the dispersion of unburned coal and, on the other hand, the height of the stacks (225 m) which may influence ash’s dispersion up to a distance of 20 km. In situ gamma radiation measurements with energy discrimination identified natural emitting nuclides as well as their decay products (212Pb, 214Pb, 226Ra 232Th, 228Ac, 234Th 234Pa, 235U, etc.). This work has been primarily done to in order to assess the impact of a coal-fired power plant operation on the background radiation level in the surrounding area. According to the results, an increase or at least an influence has been identified both qualitatively and quantitatively.

The near ultraviolet absorption spectrum of phosgene /

The near ultraviolet absorption of phosgene has been assigned to a * 1 1 ~.--n, A;-- Al electronic transition from vapour phase spectra recorded under conditions of high resolution and low_t~mperature. Progressions in Vi, v2' V3' V4 and V4 ha\1e been identified in the spectrum and have been analyzed in terms of vibronic transitions between a planar ground and a nonplanar excited state. A ba~rier height of 3170 cm~l:and a nona planar equilibrium angle of 32.5 were calculated for the upper state from a fit of the energy levels of a Lorentzian-guadratic potential func- ~ion to the observed levels of V 4 . ' ~he false ori- 3in, 41 0 , of the spectrum has been assigned to the band at 33,631 cm -1 . An oscillator strength of -3 1 . 1 f = 1. a x 10 has been obtained for the A - A 2 1 transition.

A dimensional analysis of the benzylic hydroxylase active site in mortierella isabellina

The spatial limits of the active site in the benzylic hydroxylase enzyme of the fungus Mortierella isabellina were investigated. Several molecular probes were used in incubation experiments to determine the acceptability of each compound by this enzyme. The yields of benzylic alcohols provided information on the acceptability of the particular compound into the active site, and the enantiomeric excess values provided information on the "fit" of acceptable substrates. Measurements of the molecular models were made using Cambridge Scientific Computing Inc. CSC Chem 3D Plus modeling program. i The dimensional limits of the aromatic binding pocket of the benzylic hydroxylase were tested using suitably substituted ethyl benzenes. Both the depth (para substituted substrates) and width (ortho and meta substituted substrates) of this region were investigated, with results demonstrating absolute spatial limits in both directions in the plane of the aromatic ring of 7.3 Angstroms for the depth and 7.1 Angstroms for the width. A minimum requirement for the height of this region has also been established at 6.2 Angstroms. The region containing the active oxygen species was also investigated, using a series of alkylphenylmethanes and fused ring systems in indan, 1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene and benzocycloheptene substrates. A maximum distance of 6.9 Angstroms (including the 1.5 Angstroms from the phenyl substituent to the active center of the heme prosthetic group of the enzyme) has been established extending directly in ii front of the aromatic binding pocket. The other dimensions in this region of the benzylic hydroxylase active site will require further investigation to establish maximum allowable values. An explanation of the stereochemical distributions in the obtained products has also been put forth that correlates well with the experimental observations.

Education, sport and myth in the community of Glengarry, Ontario : the athletic career of Roderick R. McLennan. 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : Faculty of Education, Brock University ;

This study examined how the athletic career of Roderick R. McLennan contributed to the popularization and subsequent development of Caledonian games in Ontario during the latter nineteenth century. Initially, the development of Caledonian games during the 1800s was examined to provide a contextual framework for McLennan's career. This investigation revealed that the games emerged from rural athletic events at pioneer working bees in the first quarter of the nineteenth century to regional sporting events by the mid-1800s, and finally into annual federated Caledonian games in 1870. Noteworthy primary source material for this chapter included the John MacGillivray Papers at the National Archives of Canada, the Scottish American Journal (NY) and the files retained by the Glengarry Sport Hall of Fame in Maxville, Ontario. Following the investigation of Caledonian games, McLennan's early athletic career was studied. Analysis of the Roderick and Farquhar McLennan Papers at the Archives of Ontario and the newspapers from the period revealed that McLennan rose to popularity in 1865 through a "Championship of the World" hammer throwing match in Cornwall and two "Starring Tours". The next chapter examined the height of McLennan's career through an investigation of the Roderick McLennan versus Donald Dinnie rivalry of the early .. n 1870s. It was detennined that the rivalry between McLennan and Dinnie, the champion athlete of Highland games in Scotland, was a popular attraction and had an impact on the Toronto and Montreal games of 1870 and the Toronto games of 1872. Finally, the athletic records established by McLennan during the 1860s and 1870s were investigated. These records were examined through the context of a media controversy over McLennan's feats that developed in the early 1880s between two newspapers. This controversy erupted between the Toronto Mail and the Spirit of the Times. Caledonian games in Canada have only been briefly examined and a thorough examination of prominent Canadian figures in this context has yet to be undertaken. This study unearths a prominent Canadian athlete of Scottish decent and details his involvement in the Caledonian games of nineteenth century Ontario.

The electronic spectra and the determination of the excited state geometry of 3A" propynal /|nby Chhiu-Tsu Lin. -- 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : [s. n.],

Impurity free eluission spectra of HCCCHO and DCCCHO have been rephotographed using the electronic-energy-exchange method with benzene as a carrier gas. The near ultraviolet spectra of ReeCHO and DCCCHO were photographed in a sorption under conditions of high resolution with absorption path lengths up to 100 meters. The emission and absorption spectra of Propynal resulting from 3 n 1 t 1\ - A excitation has been reanalyzed in som.e detail. Botrl of the eH out-of-plane wagging modes were found to have negative anharmonicity. A barrier height of 56.8/0.0 cm- 1 and a nonplanar oft , , equilibrium angle of 17 3 /30 are calculated for the V 10/ lJ 11 modes. The in-plane and out-of-plane v1. brational modes in the 3A." and 1a~. ' elec ronic states of Propynal were subjected to a normal coordinate treatment in the approximat :on of tIle Urey-Bradley force field. From the relative oscillator strengths of the trans1·t1·0ns connect i ng t he v ibrat1•0n1ess lA' , state and t,he V1· bron1·C 3· if levels of the A state, the differences in equilibrium configuration were evaluated from an approximate Franck-Condon analysis based on the ground state normal coordinates. As this treatment gave 512 possible geometrical structures for the upper state, it 4 was necessary to resort to a comparison of the observed and calculated moments of inertia along with chemical intuition to isolate the structure. A test of the correctness of the calculated structure change and the vibrational assignment was raade by evaluating the intensities of the inplane and out-oi-plane fundarnental, sequence, and cross sequellce transitions y the exact Franck-Condon method.

Photographs of secretarial staff at Lightning Fastener, ca. 1935

Lightning Fastener Co. Ltd. was a zipper manufacturer located on Niagara Street in St. Catharines. It was founded by Gideon Sundback, the inventor of the modern fastener. Sundback was born in Sweden, but settled in the United States in 1905. It was here that he designed and patented a “separable fastener” in 1913. Although he lived in Hoboken, New Jersey, he decided to establish a manufacturing facility for his invention in Canada, choosing St. Catharines over other locations such as Fort Erie and Hamilton. At the height of its success, the company employed more than 500 people and produced more than 50 million zippers annually. Over time, the company had difficulty remaining competitive and was forced to close in 1981.

Toward a Political Theory of Environmental Policy.

This paper makes some steps toward a formal political economy of environmental policy. Economists' quasi-unanimous preferences for sophisticated incentive regulation is reconsidered. First, we recast the question of instrument choice in the general mechanism literature and provide an incomplete contract approach to political economy. Then, in various settings, we show why constitutional constraints on the instruments of environmental policy may be desirable, even though they appear inefficient from a purely standard economic viewpoint.

Exogeneity, weak identification and instrument selection in econometrics

La dernière décennie a connu un intérêt croissant pour les problèmes posés par les variables instrumentales faibles dans la littérature économétrique, c’est-à-dire les situations où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter. En effet, il est bien connu que lorsque les instruments sont faibles, les distributions des statistiques de Student, de Wald, du ratio de vraisemblance et du multiplicateur de Lagrange ne sont plus standard et dépendent souvent de paramètres de nuisance. Plusieurs études empiriques portant notamment sur les modèles de rendements à l’éducation [Angrist et Krueger (1991, 1995), Angrist et al. (1999), Bound et al. (1995), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] et d’évaluation des actifs financiers (C-CAPM) [Hansen et Singleton (1982,1983), Stock et Wright (2000)], où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter, ont montré que l’utilisation de ces statistiques conduit souvent à des résultats peu fiables. Un remède à ce problème est l’utilisation de tests robustes à l’identification [Anderson et Rubin (1949), Moreira (2002), Kleibergen (2003), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)]. Cependant, il n’existe aucune littérature économétrique sur la qualité des procédures robustes à l’identification lorsque les instruments disponibles sont endogènes ou à la fois endogènes et faibles. Cela soulève la question de savoir ce qui arrive aux procédures d’inférence robustes à l’identification lorsque certaines variables instrumentales supposées exogènes ne le sont pas effectivement. Plus précisément, qu’arrive-t-il si une variable instrumentale invalide est ajoutée à un ensemble d’instruments valides? Ces procédures se comportent-elles différemment? Et si l’endogénéité des variables instrumentales pose des difficultés majeures à l’inférence statistique, peut-on proposer des procédures de tests qui sélectionnent les instruments lorsqu’ils sont à la fois forts et valides? Est-il possible de proposer les proédures de sélection d’instruments qui demeurent valides même en présence d’identification faible? Cette thèse se focalise sur les modèles structurels (modèles à équations simultanées) et apporte des réponses à ces questions à travers quatre essais. Le premier essai est publié dans Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 (2008) 2649 – 2661. Dans cet essai, nous analysons les effets de l’endogénéité des instruments sur deux statistiques de test robustes à l’identification: la statistique d’Anderson et Rubin (AR, 1949) et la statistique de Kleibergen (K, 2003), avec ou sans instruments faibles. D’abord, lorsque le paramètre qui contrôle l’endogénéité des instruments est fixe (ne dépend pas de la taille de l’échantillon), nous montrons que toutes ces procédures sont en général convergentes contre la présence d’instruments invalides (c’est-à-dire détectent la présence d’instruments invalides) indépendamment de leur qualité (forts ou faibles). Nous décrivons aussi des cas où cette convergence peut ne pas tenir, mais la distribution asymptotique est modifiée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à des distorsions de niveau même pour de grands échantillons. Ceci inclut, en particulier, les cas où l’estimateur des double moindres carrés demeure convergent, mais les tests sont asymptotiquement invalides. Ensuite, lorsque les instruments sont localement exogènes (c’est-à-dire le paramètre d’endogénéité converge vers zéro lorsque la taille de l’échantillon augmente), nous montrons que ces tests convergent vers des distributions chi-carré non centrées, que les instruments soient forts ou faibles. Nous caractérisons aussi les situations où le paramètre de non centralité est nul et la distribution asymptotique des statistiques demeure la même que dans le cas des instruments valides (malgré la présence des instruments invalides). Le deuxième essai étudie l’impact des instruments faibles sur les tests de spécification du type Durbin-Wu-Hausman (DWH) ainsi que le test de Revankar et Hartley (1973). Nous proposons une analyse en petit et grand échantillon de la distribution de ces tests sous l’hypothèse nulle (niveau) et l’alternative (puissance), incluant les cas où l’identification est déficiente ou faible (instruments faibles). Notre analyse en petit échantillon founit plusieurs perspectives ainsi que des extensions des précédentes procédures. En effet, la caractérisation de la distribution de ces statistiques en petit échantillon permet la construction des tests de Monte Carlo exacts pour l’exogénéité même avec les erreurs non Gaussiens. Nous montrons que ces tests sont typiquement robustes aux intruments faibles (le niveau est contrôlé). De plus, nous fournissons une caractérisation de la puissance des tests, qui exhibe clairement les facteurs qui déterminent la puissance. Nous montrons que les tests n’ont pas de puissance lorsque tous les instruments sont faibles [similaire à Guggenberger(2008)]. Cependant, la puissance existe tant qu’au moins un seul instruments est fort. La conclusion de Guggenberger (2008) concerne le cas où tous les instruments sont faibles (un cas d’intérêt mineur en pratique). Notre théorie asymptotique sous les hypothèses affaiblies confirme la théorie en échantillon fini. Par ailleurs, nous présentons une analyse de Monte Carlo indiquant que: (1) l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires est plus efficace que celui des doubles moindres carrés lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogenéité modérée [conclusion similaire à celle de Kiviet and Niemczyk (2007)]; (2) les estimateurs pré-test basés sur les tests d’exogenété ont une excellente performance par rapport aux doubles moindres carrés. Ceci suggère que la méthode des variables instrumentales ne devrait être appliquée que si l’on a la certitude d’avoir des instruments forts. Donc, les conclusions de Guggenberger (2008) sont mitigées et pourraient être trompeuses. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques à travers des expériences de simulation et deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le problème bien connu du rendement à l’éducation. Le troisième essai étend le test d’exogénéité du type Wald proposé par Dufour (1987) aux cas où les erreurs de la régression ont une distribution non-normale. Nous proposons une nouvelle version du précédent test qui est valide même en présence d’erreurs non-Gaussiens. Contrairement aux procédures de test d’exogénéité usuelles (tests de Durbin-Wu-Hausman et de Rvankar- Hartley), le test de Wald permet de résoudre un problème courant dans les travaux empiriques qui consiste à tester l’exogénéité partielle d’un sous ensemble de variables. Nous proposons deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test basés sur le test de Wald qui performent mieux (en terme d’erreur quadratique moyenne) que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les variables instrumentales sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée. Nous montrons également que ce test peut servir de procédure de sélection de variables instrumentales. Nous illustrons les résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: le modèle bien connu d’équation du salaire [Angist et Krueger (1991, 1999)] et les rendements d’échelle [Nerlove (1963)]. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’éducation de la mère expliquerait le décrochage de son fils, que l’output est une variable endogène dans l’estimation du coût de la firme et que le prix du fuel en est un instrument valide pour l’output. Le quatrième essai résout deux problèmes très importants dans la littérature économétrique. D’abord, bien que le test de Wald initial ou étendu permette de construire les régions de confiance et de tester les restrictions linéaires sur les covariances, il suppose que les paramètres du modèle sont identifiés. Lorsque l’identification est faible (instruments faiblement corrélés avec la variable à instrumenter), ce test n’est en général plus valide. Cet essai développe une procédure d’inférence robuste à l’identification (instruments faibles) qui permet de construire des régions de confiance pour la matrices de covariances entre les erreurs de la régression et les variables explicatives (possiblement endogènes). Nous fournissons les expressions analytiques des régions de confiance et caractérisons les conditions nécessaires et suffisantes sous lesquelles ils sont bornés. La procédure proposée demeure valide même pour de petits échantillons et elle est aussi asymptotiquement robuste à l’hétéroscédasticité et l’autocorrélation des erreurs. Ensuite, les résultats sont utilisés pour développer les tests d’exogénéité partielle robustes à l’identification. Les simulations Monte Carlo indiquent que ces tests contrôlent le niveau et ont de la puissance même si les instruments sont faibles. Ceci nous permet de proposer une procédure valide de sélection de variables instrumentales même s’il y a un problème d’identification. La procédure de sélection des instruments est basée sur deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test qui combinent l’estimateur IV usuel et les estimateurs IV partiels. Nos simulations montrent que: (1) tout comme l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires, les estimateurs IV partiels sont plus efficaces que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée; (2) les estimateurs pré-test ont globalement une excellente performance comparés à l’estimateur IV usuel. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le modèle de rendements à l’éducation. Dans la première application, les études antérieures ont conclu que les instruments n’étaient pas trop faibles [Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] alors qu’ils le sont fortement dans la seconde [Bound (1995), Doko et Dufour (2009)]. Conformément à nos résultats théoriques, nous trouvons les régions de confiance non bornées pour la covariance dans le cas où les instruments sont assez faibles.

Automation of Chemical Spray Pyrolysis Unit and Fabrication of Sprayed CuInS2/In2S3 Solar Cell

Aim of the present work was to automate CSP process, to deposit and characterize CuInS2/In2S3 layers using this system and to fabricate devices using these films.An automated spray system for the deposition of compound semiconductor thin films was designed and developed so as to eliminate the manual labour involved in spraying and facilitate standardization of the method. The system was designed such that parameters like spray rate, movement of spray head, duration of spray, temperature of substrate, pressure of carrier gas and height of the spray head from the substrate could be varied. Using this system, binary, ternary as well as quaternary films could be successfully deposited.The second part of the work deal with deposition and characterization of CuInS2 and In2S3 layers respectively.In the case of CuInS2 absorbers, the effects of different preparation conditions and post deposition treatments on the optoelectronic, morphological and structural properties were investigated. It was observed that preparation conditions and post deposition treatments played crucial role in controlling the properties of the films. The studies in this direction were useful in understanding how the variation in spray parameters tailored the properties of the absorber layer. These results were subsequently made use of in device fabrication process.Effects of copper incorporation in In2S3 films were investigated to find how the diffusion of Cu from CuInS2 to In2S3 will affect the properties at the junction. It was noticed that there was a regular variation in the opto-electronic properties with increase in copper concentration.Devices were fabricated on ITO coated glass using CuInS2 as absorber and In2S3 as buffer layer with silver as the top electrode. Stable devices could be deposited over an area of 0.25 cm2, even though the efficiency obtained was not high. Using manual spray system, we could achieve devices of area 0.01 cm2 only. Thus automation helped in obtaining repeatable results over larger areas than those obtained while using the manual unit. Silver diffusion on the cells before coating the electrodes resulted in better collection of carriers.From this work it was seen CuInS2/In2S3 junction deposited through automated spray process has potential to achieve high efficiencies.

Studies on rainfall variability and the influence of orography and land use on the climate of Peninsular India

The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past century. The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies than considering India as a single unit. The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of monsoon have to be continually updated.