Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Genetics of melanoma predisposition

Predisposition to melanoma is genetically heterogeneous. Two high penetrance susceptibility genes, CDKN2A and CDK4, have so far been identified and mapping is ongoing to localize and identify others. With the advent of a catalogue of millions of potential DNA polymorphisms, attention is now also being focused on identification of genes that confer a more modest contribution to melanoma risk, such as those encoding proteins involved in pigmentation, DNA repair, cell growth and differentiation or detoxification of metabolites. One such pigmentation gene, MC1R, has not only been found to be a low penetrance melanoma gene but has also been shown to act as a genetic modifier of melanoma risk in individuals carrying CDKN2A mutations. Most recently, an environmental agent, ultraviolet radiation, has also been established as a modifier of melanoma risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers. Hence, melanoma is turning out to be an excellent paradigm for studying gene-gene and gene-environment interactions.

The genetics of coronary heart disease: the contribution of twin studies

Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

Primary aldosteronism: From genesis to genetics

The fact that a debate concerning the unexpectedly high prevalence of normokalaemic primary aldosteronism (PAL) attracted a large audience at the 2002 Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Hypertension makes it timely to address this issue. The affirmative case argues that PAL is the most common potentially curable and specifically treatable form of hypertension, itself the most common chronic disorder in Western societies, with significant morbidity and mortality, consuming large proportions of health budgets. Recent discoveries about the genetics of aldosterone production and of its unexpectedly broad effects on the cardiovascular system need to be placed in clinical context.

The genetics of glycosylation in Gram-negative bacteria

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in reports of glycosylation of proteins in various Gram-negative systems including Neisseria meningitidis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Campylobacter jejuni, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Caulobacter crescentus, Aeromonas caviae and Helicobacter pylori. Although this growing list contains many important pathogens (reviewed by Benz and Schmidt [Mol. Microbiol. 45 (2002) 267-276]) and the glycosylations are found on proteins important in pathogenesis such as pili, adhesins and flagella the precise role(s) of the glycosylation of these proteins remains to be determined. Furthermore, the details of the glycosylation biosynthetic process have not been determined in any of these systems. The definition of the precise role of glycosylation and the mechanism of biosynthesis will be facilitated by a detailed understanding of the genes involved. (C) 2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Studies on the genetics of artemisinin resistance in malaria

A existência de estirpes de Plasmodium falciparum resistentes a multiplos fármacos é um dos problemas mais graves no controlo da malária. Novos fármacos, como a artemisinina (ART) e seus derivados são cada vez mais utilizados no tratamento da malaria e muito embora até ao momento não haja registos de fármaco-resistência estável à ART o seu surgimento seria desastroso devido á falta de alternativas. A investigação apresentada nesta tese descreve a selecção de resistência estável à ART e ao artesunato (ATN) utilizando um modelo roedor de malária, o parasita Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi (Plasmodium chabaudi). Dois clones de Plasmodium chabaudi diferentes, AS-15CQ e AS-30CQ, foram inoculados em murganhos que por sua vez foram tratados na presença de concentrações sucessivamente crescentes de ATN e ART, sendo que no final do processo de seleção de resistência, os parasitas obtidos apresentavam uma resistência de 6 e 15 vezes superior ao ATN e à ART, respectivamente, em relação aos parasitas iniciais. Os clones obtidos foram nomeados respectivamente AS-ATN (obtido a partir de AS-15CQ por seleção com pressão de ATN) e AS-ART (obtido a partir de AS-30CQ por seleção com pressão de ART). A resistência obtida durante o processo de seleção é estável após clonagem, congelamento/descongelamento, passagem sanguínea na ausência de pressão de fármaco e transmissão natural através do mosquito vector. A sequência nucleotídica e o número de cópias dos genes previamente descritos na literatura como moduladores putativos de resistência à ART e seus derivados: mdr1, cg10, tctp e atp6; foi comparada entre parasitas resistentes e sensíveis, não tendo sido encontradas nenhumas alterações, quer na sequência quer no número de cópias destes genes. Posteriormente, numa tentativa de identificar os genes envolvidos na resistância à ART e ao ATN a técnica de Linkage Group Selection (LGS) foi utilizada. Para tal dois cruzamentos genéticos foram realizados. Estes cruzamentos foram realizados entre os clones fármaco-resistentes; AS-ART e AS-ATN e um clone geneticamente distinto dos anteriores e sensível aos fármacos em estudos, AJ. Após realização do LGS quatro loci genéticos; nos cromossomas de P. chabaudi 1, 2, 6 e 8 foram encontrados associados à resistência. Atendendo a que, a selecção no cromossoma 2 era a mais forte, este locus foi submetido a subsequentes análises genéticas, tendo sido encontradas duas mutações diferentes (V739F e V770F) num gene que codifica para um enzima de desubiquitinação (gene ubp-1).

Studies on the genetics of artemisinin resistance in malaria

A existência de estirpes de Plasmodium falciparum resistentes a multiplos fármacos é um dos problemas mais graves no controlo da malária. Novos fármacos, como a artemisinina (ART) e seus derivados são cada vez mais utilizados no tratamento da malaria e muito embora até ao momento não haja registos de fármaco-resistência estável à ART o seu surgimento seria desastroso devido á falta de alternativas. A investigação apresentada nesta tese descreve a selecção de resistência estável à ART e ao artesunato (ATN) utilizando um modelo roedor de malária, o parasita Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi (Plasmodium chabaudi). Dois clones de Plasmodium chabaudi diferentes, AS-15CQ e AS-30CQ, foram inoculados em murganhos que por sua vez foram tratados na presença de concentrações sucessivamente crescentes de ATN e ART, sendo que no final do processo de seleção de resistência, os parasitas obtidos apresentavam uma resistência de 6 e 15 vezes superior ao ATN e à ART, respectivamente, em relação aos parasitas iniciais. Os clones obtidos foram nomeados respectivamente AS-ATN (obtido a partir de AS-15CQ por seleção com pressão de ATN) e AS-ART (obtido a partir de AS-30CQ por seleção com pressão de ART). A resistência obtida durante o processo de seleção é estável após clonagem, congelamento/descongelamento, passagem sanguínea na ausência de pressão de fármaco e transmissão natural através do mosquito vector. A sequência nucleotídica e o número de cópias dos genes previamente descritos na literatura como moduladores putativos de resistência à ART e seus derivados: mdr1, cg10, tctp e atp6; foi comparada entre parasitas resistentes e sensíveis, não tendo sido encontradas nenhumas alterações, quer na sequência quer no número de cópias destes genes. Posteriormente, numa tentativa de identificar os genes envolvidos na resistância à ART e ao ATN a técnica de Linkage Group Selection (LGS) foi utilizada. Para tal dois cruzamentos genéticos foram realizados. Estes cruzamentos foram realizados entre os clones fármaco-resistentes; AS-ART e AS-ATN e um clone geneticamente distinto dos anteriores e sensível aos fármacos em estudos, AJ. Após realização do LGS quatro loci genéticos; nos cromossomas de P. chabaudi 1, 2, 6 e 8 foram encontrados associados à resistência. Atendendo a que, a selecção no cromossoma 2 era a mais forte, este locus foi submetido a subsequentes análises genéticas, tendo sido encontradas duas mutações diferentes (V739F e V770F) num gene que codifica para um enzima de desubiquitinação (gene ubp-1).

Phylogeography, conservation genetics and parasitology of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes versus) in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa

Tese de doutoramento em Antropologia, especialidade em Antropologia Biológica e Etnoecologia