Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Optimal fuzzy PID control tuned with genetic algorithms

Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) are intelligent systems, based on heuristic knowledge, that have been largely applied in numerous areas of everyday life. They can be used to describe a linear or nonlinear system and are suitable when a real system is not known or too difficult to find their model. FLC provide a formal methodology for representing, manipulating and implementing a human heuristic knowledge on how to control a system. These controllers can be seen as artificial decision makers that operate in a closed-loop system, in real time. The main aim of this work was to develop a single optimal fuzzy controller, easily adaptable to a wide range of systems – simple to complex, linear to nonlinear – and able to control all these systems. Due to their efficiency in searching and finding optimal solution for high complexity problems, GAs were used to perform the FLC tuning by finding the best parameters to obtain the best responses. The work was performed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK software. This is a very useful tool that provides an easy way to test and analyse the FLC, the PID and the GAs in the same environment. Therefore, it was proposed a Fuzzy PID controller (FL-PID) type namely, the Fuzzy PD+I. For that, the controller was compared with the classical PID controller tuned with, the heuristic Ziegler-Nichols tuning method, the optimal Zhuang-Atherton tuning method and the GA method itself. The IAE, ISE, ITAE and ITSE criteria, used as the GA fitness functions, were applied to compare the controllers performance used in this work. Overall, and for most systems, the FL-PID results tuned with GAs were very satisfactory. Moreover, in some cases the results were substantially better than for the other PID controllers. The best system responses were obtained with the IAE and ITAE criteria used to tune the FL-PID and PID controllers.

Planeamento de redes de distribuição de energia

O planeamento de redes de distribuição tem como objetivo assegurar a existência de capacidade nas redes para a fornecimento de energia elétrica com bons níveis de qualidade de serviço tendo em conta os fatores económicos associados. No âmbito do trabalho apresentado na presente dissertação, foi elaborado um modelo de planeamento que determina a configuração de rede resultante da minimização de custos associados a: 1) perdas por efeito de joule; 2) investimento em novos componentes; 3) energia não entregue. A incerteza associada ao valor do consumo de cada carga é modelada através de lógica difusa. O problema de otimização definido é resolvido pelo método de decomposição de benders que contempla dois trânsitos de potências ótimos (modelo DC e modelo AC) no problema mestre e escravo respectivamente para validação de restrições. Foram também definidos critérios de paragem do método de decomposição de benders. O modelo proposto classifica-se como programação não linear inteira mista e foi implementado na ferramenta de otimização General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). O modelo desenvolvido tem em conta todos componentes das redes para a otimização do planeamento, conforme podemos analisar nos casos de estudo implementados. Cada caso de estudo é definido pela variação da importância que cada uma das variáveis do problema toma, tendo em vista cobrir de alguma todos os cenários de operação expetáveis. Através destes casos de estudo verifica-se as várias configurações que a rede pode tomar, tendo em conta as importâncias atribuídas a cada uma das variáveis, bem como os respetivos custos associados a cada solução. Este trabalho oferece um considerável contributo no âmbito do planeamento de redes de distribuição, pois comporta diferentes variáveis para a execução do mesmo. É também um modelo bastante robusto não perdendo o ‘norte’ no encontro de solução para redes de grande dimensão, com maior número de componentes.

Reliable link quality estimation in low-power wireless networks and its impact on tree-routing

Radio link quality estimation is essential for protocols and mechanisms such as routing, mobility management and localization, particularly for low-power wireless networks such as wireless sensor networks. Commodity Link Quality Estimators (LQEs), e.g. PRR, RNP, ETX, four-bit and RSSI, can only provide a partial characterization of links as they ignore several link properties such as channel quality and stability. In this paper, we propose F-LQE (Fuzzy Link Quality Estimator, a holistic metric that estimates link quality on the basis of four link quality properties—packet delivery, asymmetry, stability, and channel quality—that are expressed and combined using Fuzzy Logic. We demonstrate through an extensive experimental analysis that F-LQE is more reliable than existing estimators (e.g., PRR, WMEWMA, ETX, RNP, and four-bit) as it provides a finer grain link classification. It is also more stable as it has lower coefficient of variation of link estimates. Importantly, we evaluate the impact of F-LQE on the performance of tree routing, specifically the CTP (Collection Tree Protocol). For this purpose, we adapted F-LQE to build a new routing metric for CTP, which we dubbed as F-LQE/RM. Extensive experimental results obtained with state-of-the-art widely used test-beds show that F-LQE/RM improves significantly CTP routing performance over four-bit (the default LQE of CTP) and ETX (another popular LQE). F-LQE/RM improves the end-to-end packet delivery by up to 16%, reduces the number of packet retransmissions by up to 32%, reduces the Hop count by up to 4%, and improves the topology stability by up to 47%.

Quality-of-service aware routing for static and mobile IPv6-based low-power and lossy sensor networks using RPL

The Internet of Things (IoT) has emerged as a paradigm over the last few years as a result of the tight integration of the computing and the physical world. The requirement of remote sensing makes low-power wireless sensor networks one of the key enabling technologies of IoT. These networks encompass several challenges, especially in communication and networking, due to their inherent constraints of low-power features, deployment in harsh and lossy environments, and limited computing and storage resources. The IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) [1] was proposed by the IETF ROLL (Routing Over Low-power Lossy links) working group and is currently adopted as an IETF standard in the RFC 6550 since March 2012. Although RPL greatly satisfied the requirements of low-power and lossy sensor networks, several issues remain open for improvement and specification, in particular with respect to Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees and support for mobility. In this paper, we focus mainly on the RPL routing protocol. We propose some enhancements to the standard specification in order to provide QoS guarantees for static as well as mobile LLNs. For this purpose, we propose OF-FL (Objective Function based on Fuzzy Logic), a new objective function that overcomes the limitations of the standardized objective functions that were designed for RPL by considering important link and node metrics, namely end-to-end delay, number of hops, ETX (Expected transmission count) and LQL (Link Quality Level). In addition, we present the design of Co-RPL, an extension to RPL based on the corona mechanism that supports mobility in order to overcome the problem of slow reactivity to frequent topology changes and thus providing a better quality of service mainly in dynamic networks application. Performance evaluation results show that both OF-FL and Co-RPL allow a great improvement when compared to the standard specification, mainly in terms of packet loss ratio and average network latency. 2015 Elsevier B.V. Al

Forearm surface EMG signals recognition and muscoloskeletal system dynamics identification using intelligent computational methods

Biosignals processing, Biological Nonlinear and time-varying systems identification, Electomyograph signals recognition, Pattern classification, Fuzzy logic and neural networks methods

Student modeling based on fuzzy inference mechanisms

The paper presents a competence-based instructional design system and a way to provide a personalization of navigation in the course content. The navigation aid tool builds on the competence graph and the student model, which includes the elements of uncertainty in the assessment of students. An individualized navigation graph is constructed for each student, suggesting the competences the student is more prepared to study. We use fuzzy set theory for dealing with uncertainty. The marks of the assessment tests are transformed into linguistic terms and used for assigning values to linguistic variables. For each competence, the level of difficulty and the level of knowing its prerequisites are calculated based on the assessment marks. Using these linguistic variables and approximate reasoning (fuzzy IF-THEN rules), a crisp category is assigned to each competence regarding its level of recommendation.

Artificially Intelligent and Adaptive Methods for Prediction and Analysis of Superheater Fireside Corrosion in Fluidized Bed Boilers

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.

Advanced control methods for reducing nitrogen oxides in a fluidized bed boiler

Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli löytää keinoja erään leijukerroskattilan typenoksidipäästöjen vähentämiseksi. Koska päästöt olivat jo alunperin alhaiset leijukerrostekniikan ja hybridin SNCR/SCR –typenpoistolaitteiston ansiosta, päätettiin päästöjä lähteä vähentämään parantamalla ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätöä. Alkuperäinen ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätö oli liian hidas, jotta satunnaisten häiriöiden aiheuttamat typenoksidipiikit olisi pystytty poistamaan. Ammoniakkiruiskutusta parannettiin lisäämällä jokaiseen ammoniakkilinjaan mäntäpumput, joiden avulla ammoniakkia voidaan syöttää sinne, missä sitä eniten tarvitaan. Ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätöön kehitettiin uusi sumeaan logiikkaan perustuva säätäjä. Myös muita kehittyneitä säätömenetelmiä kuten neuroverkkoa hyödynnettiin säätäjän kehityksessä. Ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätäjää testattiin menestyksekkäästi Ruotsissa Brista Kraftin Märstassa sijaitsevalla voimalaitoksella

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

System for studies of control strategies applied in the refrigerated chambers

The process of cold storage chambers contributes largely to the quality and longevity of stored products. In recent years, it has been intensified the study of control strategies in order to decrease the temperature change inside the storage chamber and to reduce the electric power consumption. This study has developed a system for data acquisition and process control, in LabVIEW language, to be applied in the cooling system of a refrigerating chamber of 30m³. The use of instrumentation and the application developed fostered the development of scientific experiments, which aimed to study the dynamic behavior of the refrigeration system, compare the performance of control strategies and the heat engine, even due to the controlled temperature, or to the electricity consumption. This system tested the strategies for on-off control, PID and fuzzy. Regarding power consumption, the fuzzy controller showed the best result, saving 10% when compared with other tested strategies.

SOFTWARE TO ASSESS BEEF CATTLE BODY MASS THROUGH THE FUZZY BODY MASS INDEX

ABSTRACT The Body Mass Index (BMI) can be used by farmers to help determine the time of evaluation of the body mass gain of the animal. However, the calculation of this index does not reveal immediately whether the animal is ready for slaughter or if it needs special care fattening. The aim of this study was to develop a software using the Fuzzy Logic to compare the bovine body mass among themselves and identify the groups for slaughter and those that requires more intensive feeding, using "mass" and "height" variables, and the output Fuzzy BMI. For the development of the software, it was used a fuzzy system with applications in a herd of 147 Nellore cows, located in a city of Santa Rita do Pardo city – Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) state, in Brazil, and a database generated by Matlab software.

Adaptive Routing Approaches for Networked Many-Core Systems

Through advances in technology, System-on-Chip design is moving towards integrating tens to hundreds of intellectual property blocks into a single chip. In such a many-core system, on-chip communication becomes a performance bottleneck for high performance designs. Network-on-Chip (NoC) has emerged as a viable solution for the communication challenges in highly complex chips. The NoC architecture paradigm, based on a modular packet-switched mechanism, can address many of the on-chip communication challenges such as wiring complexity, communication latency, and bandwidth. Furthermore, the combined benefits of 3D IC and NoC schemes provide the possibility of designing a high performance system in a limited chip area. The major advantages of 3D NoCs are the considerable reductions in average latency and power consumption. There are several factors degrading the performance of NoCs. In this thesis, we investigate three main performance-limiting factors: network congestion, faults, and the lack of efficient multicast support. We address these issues by the means of routing algorithms. Congestion of data packets may lead to increased network latency and power consumption. Thus, we propose three different approaches for alleviating such congestion in the network. The first approach is based on measuring the congestion information in different regions of the network, distributing the information over the network, and utilizing this information when making a routing decision. The second approach employs a learning method to dynamically find the less congested routes according to the underlying traffic. The third approach is based on a fuzzy-logic technique to perform better routing decisions when traffic information of different routes is available. Faults affect performance significantly, as then packets should take longer paths in order to be routed around the faults, which in turn increases congestion around the faulty regions. We propose four methods to tolerate faults at the link and switch level by using only the shortest paths as long as such path exists. The unique characteristic among these methods is the toleration of faults while also maintaining the performance of NoCs. To the best of our knowledge, these algorithms are the first approaches to bypassing faults prior to reaching them while avoiding unnecessary misrouting of packets. Current implementations of multicast communication result in a significant performance loss for unicast traffic. This is due to the fact that the routing rules of multicast packets limit the adaptivity of unicast packets. We present an approach in which both unicast and multicast packets can be efficiently routed within the network. While suggesting a more efficient multicast support, the proposed approach does not affect the performance of unicast routing at all. In addition, in order to reduce the overall path length of multicast packets, we present several partitioning methods along with their analytical models for latency measurement. This approach is discussed in the context of 3D mesh networks.

Flexible multibody dynamics and intelligent control of a hydraulically driven hybrid redundant robot machine

The assembly and maintenance of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) vacuum vessel (VV) is highly challenging since the tasks performed by the robot involve welding, material handling, and machine cutting from inside the VV. The VV is made of stainless steel, which has poor machinability and tends to work harden very rapidly, and all the machining operations need to be carried out from inside of the ITER VV. A general industrial robot cannot be used due to its poor stiffness in the heavy duty machining process, and this will cause many problems, such as poor surface quality, tool damage, low accuracy. Therefore, one of the most suitable options should be a light weight mobile robot which is able to move around inside of the VV and perform different machining tasks by replacing different cutting tools. Reducing the mass of the robot manipulators offers many advantages: reduced material costs, reduced power consumption, the possibility of using smaller actuators, and a higher payload-to-robot weight ratio. Offsetting these advantages, the lighter weight robot is more flexible, which makes it more difficult to control. To achieve good machining surface quality, the tracking of the end effector must be accurate, and an accurate model for a more flexible robot must be constructed. This thesis studies the dynamics and control of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant hybrid robot (4-DOF serial mechanism and 6-DOF 6-UPS hexapod parallel mechanisms) hydraulically driven with flexible rods under the influence of machining forces. Firstly, the flexibility of the bodies is described using the floating frame of reference method (FFRF). A finite element model (FEM) provided the Craig-Bampton (CB) modes needed for the FFRF. A dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using the constrained Lagrange equations and the Lagrange multiplier method. Subsequently, the reaction forces between the parallel and serial parts were used to study the dynamics of the serial robot. A PID control based on position predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders of the robot. Secondly, in machining, to achieve greater end effector trajectory tracking accuracy for surface quality, a robust control of the actuators for the flexible link has to be deduced. This thesis investigates the intelligent control of a hydraulically driven parallel robot part based on the dynamic model and two schemes of intelligent control for a hydraulically driven parallel mechanism based on the dynamic model: (1) a fuzzy-PID self-tuning controller composed of the conventional PID control and with fuzzy logic, and (2) adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-PID (ANFIS-PID) self-tuning of the gains of the PID controller, which are implemented independently to control each hydraulic cylinder of the parallel mechanism based on rod length predictions. The serial component of the hybrid robot can be analyzed using the equilibrium of reaction forces at the universal joint connections of the hexa-element. To achieve precise positional control of the end effector for maximum precision machining, the hydraulic cylinder should be controlled to hold the hexa-element. Thirdly, a finite element approach of multibody systems using the Special Euclidean group SE(3) framework is presented for a parallel mechanism with flexible piston rods under the influence of machining forces. The flexibility of the bodies is described using the nonlinear interpolation method with an exponential map. The equations of motion take the form of a differential algebraic equation on a Lie group, which is solved using a Lie group time integration scheme. The method relies on the local description of motions, so that it provides a singularity-free formulation, and no parameterization of the nodal variables needs to be introduced. The flexible slider constraint is formulated using a Lie group and used for modeling a flexible rod sliding inside a cylinder. The dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using Hamilton’s principle and the Lagrange multiplier method. A linearized hydraulic control system based on rod length predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders. Consequently, the results of the simulations demonstrating the behavior of the robot machine are presented for each case study. In conclusion, this thesis studies the dynamic analysis of a special hybrid (serialparallel) robot for the above-mentioned special task involving the ITER and investigates different control algorithms that can significantly improve machining performance. These analyses and results provide valuable insight into the design and control of the parallel robot with flexible rods.

The role of nuclear and other conventional power plants in the flexible energy system

This thesis reviews the role of nuclear and conventional power plants in the future energy system. The review is done by utilizing freely accesible publications in addition to generating load duration and ramping curves for Nordic energy system. As the aim of the future energy system is to reduce GHG-emissions and avoid further global warming, the need for flexible power generation increases with the increased share of intermittent renewables. The goal of this thesis is to offer extensive understanding of possibilities and restrictions that nuclear power and conventional power plants have regarding flexible and sustainable generation. As a conclusion, nuclear power is the only technology that is able to provide large scale GHG-free power output variations with good ramping values. Most of the currently operating plants are able to take part in load following as the requirement to do so is already required to be included in the plant design. Load duration and ramping curves produced prove that nuclear power is able to cover most of the annual generation variation and ramping needs in the Nordic energy system. From the conventional power generation methods, only biomass combustion can be considered GHG-free because biomass is considered carbon neutral. CFB combusted biomass has good load follow capabilities in good ramping and turndown ratios. All the other conventional power generation technologies generate GHG-emissions and therefore the use of these technologies should be reduced.