The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

An economic overview of the fish and shrimp production of the Nigeria fish trawling industry under the structural adjustment programme

Over the years, Nigeria have witnessed different government with different policy measures. Against the negative consequences of the past policies, the structural adjustment was initiated in 1986. Its aims is to effectively altar and restructure the consumption patterns of the economy as well as to eliminate price distortions and heavy dependence on the oil and the imports of consumer goods and services. Within the period of implementation, there has been a decreasing trend in yearly fish catch landings and sizes but the reverse in shrimping. There is also a gradual shift from fishing to shrimping, from the vessels purchased with 83.3% increase of shrimpers from 1985 to 1989. Decreasing fish catch sizes and quantity aggravated by the present high cost of fishing coupled with the favourable export market for Nigeria shrimp tend to influence the sift. This economic situation is the result of the supply measures of SAP through the devaluation of the Naira. There is also overconcentration of vessels on the inshore waters as majority of the vessels are old and low powers hence incapable of fishing on the deep sea. Rotterdam price being paid for automotive gas oil (AGO) by fishing industries is observed to be discriminating and unhealthy to the growth of the industry as it is exceedingly high and unstable thus affecting planning for fishing operation. Fuel alone takes 43% of the total cost of operation. The overall consequences is that fishing days are loss and therefore higher overhead cost. It was concluded that for a healthy growth and sustainable resources of our marine fishery under the structural adjustment programme licensing of new fishing vessels should be stopped immediately and the demand side of SAP should be employed by subsidizing high powered fishing vessels which can operate effectively on the deep sea

The effects of brood stock size on the economy of catfish (Clarias anguillaris) fry production using the hormone induced natural breeding technique

89 ripe female brooders of the catfish, Clarias anguillaris (Body wt. Range 150g-1, 200g) were induced to spawn by hormone (Ovaprim) induced natural spawning technique over a period of 10 weeks. Matching ripe males were used for pairing the females at the ratio of two males to a female. Six ranges of brood stock body weights were considered as follows; <200g; 200g-399g; 400g-599g; 600-799g; 800g-999g; > 1000g and the number of fry produced by each female brooder was scored/recorded against the corresponding body weight range. The number of fry per unit quantity of hormone and the cost of production a fry based on the current price of Ovaprim (hormon) were determined so as to ascertain most economic size range. The best and most economic size range was between 400g-599g body weight with about 20,000 fry per ml of hormone and N0.028 per fry, while the females above 1000g gave the poorest results of 9,519 fry per ml of hormone and N0.059 per fry. For optimum production of Clarias anguillaris fry and maximum return on investment female brooders of body weights ranging between 400g-599g are recommended for hormone induced natural breeding exercises

The effects of brood stock size on the economy of catfish (Clarias anguillaris) fry production using the hormone induced natural breeding technique

89 ripe female brooders of the catfish, Clarias anguillaris (Body wt. Range 150g-1, 200g) were induced to spawn by hormone (Ovaprim) induced natural spawning technique over a period of 10 weeks. Matching ripe males were used for pairing the females at the ratio of two males to a female. Six ranges of brood stock body weights were considered as follows; <200g; 200g-399g; 400g-599g; 600-799g; 800g-999g; > 1000g and the number of fry produced by each female brooder was scored/recorded against the corresponding body weight range. The number of fry per unit quantity of hormone and the cost of production a fry based on the current price of Ovaprim (hormon) were determined so as to ascertain most economic size range. The best and most economic size range was between 400g-599g body weight with about 20,000 fry per ml of hormone and N0.028 per fry, while the females above 1000g gave the poorest results of 9,519 fry per ml of hormone and N0.059 per fry. For optimum production of Clarias anguillaris fry and maximum return on investment female brooders of body weights ranging between 400g-599g are recommended for hormone induced natural breeding exercises

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Analysis of the differences between the rates of inflation associated with two aggregate price level: The case of the euro area and the United States

Idioma: Inglés Abstract: This project focuses on two indicators of prices, the GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI), and analyzes the differences and similarities they present. These price indexes have been chosen taking into account its great representativeness and importance to economic and social level, and its direct relationship to the overall functioning of the economy and, in particular, inflation. It should be also mentioned that this study was conducted for cases of the euro area and the United States, as the impact of these economies in the economic and social situation at international level is very significant.

The role of macrophytes in the economy of the lower Sondu-Miriu river of Lake Victoria

This paper highlights the results of a 12 month's ecological study of macrophytes and their role in the economy of the lower Sondu-Miriu river of Lake Victoria. A total of 34 species of aquatic macrophytes were identified. These were grouped as emergent, floating leaved, free floating and submersed. The major community type identified were dominated by Cladium jamaicanse (Crantz) Kurk., Cyperus paprus (L.) and Cyperus latifolius (Poir). The study observed an over dependence on macrophytes by the local community for the supply of bedding, grazing fields, fuel, roofing and other building materials. The white (heart) of Typha shoot, Nile cabbage (Pistia stratiotes and a legume solanum nigrum traditionally known as "osuga" are used as vegetables by local community. The only source of protein in this arid region is the fish caught in the swamps and birds which inhabit the swamp. The swamp provides the only source of green pasture in the dry season for the animals. An export oriented economy has developed involving mat making and basket weaving with exports reaching as far as Japan. The study proposes a rational and sustainable exploitation of the littoral zone to support the adjacent rural community.

生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电的技术经济分析

介绍了生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电技术项目，确定了该项目经济效益的评价指标，定量计算了项目的投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率。同时还对燃料费用、上网电价和固定资产变化引起的敏感性进行分析。结果表明，该联合发电技术的动态投资回收期为9.05a，净现值为2770万元，内部收益率为15.82％，三个经济指标均符合行业标准。从经济角度看是完全可行的。

The financial storms in Vietnam's transition economy: a reasoning on the 1991-2008 period

This study focuses on those substantial changes that characterize the shift of Vietnam’s macroeconomic structures and evolution of micro-structural interaction over an important period of 1991-2008. The results show that these events are completely distinct in terms of (i) Economic nature; (ii) Scale and depth of changes; (iii) Start and end results; and, (iv) Requirement for macroeconomic decisions. The study rejected a suspicion of similarity between the contagion of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and economic chaos in the first half of 2008 (starting from late 2007). The depth, economic settings of, and interconnection between macro choices and micro decisions have all grown up significantly, partly due to a much deeper level of integration of Vietnam into the world’s economy. On the one hand, this phenomenon gives rise to efficiency of macro level policies because the consideration of micro-structural factors within the framework has definitely become increasingly critical. On the other and, this is a unique opportunity for the macroeconomic mechanism of Vietnam to improve vastly, given the context in which the national economy entered an everchanging period under pressures of globalization and re-integration. The authors hope to also open up paths for further empirical verifications and to stress on the fact that macro policies will have, from now on, to be decided in line with changing micro-settings, which specify a market economy and decide the degree of success of any macroeconomic choices.

Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy

This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.

An examination of the effects of government purchases in an open economy

This paper examines the effects of permanent and transitory changes in government purchases in the context of a model of a small open economy that produces and consumes both traded and nontraded goods. The model incorporates an equilibrium interpretation of the business cycle that emphasizes the responsiveness of agents to intertemporal relative price changes. It is demonstrated that transitory increases in government purchases lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an ambiguous change (although a likely worsening) in the current account, while permanent increases have an ambiguous impact on the real exchange rate and no effect on the current account. When agents do not know whether a given increase in government purchases is permanent or transitory the effect is a weighted average of these separate effects. The weights depend on the relative variances of the transitory and permanent components of government purchases. © 1985.

Memorandum submitted by the University of Greenwich: are the consumer price increases for electricity imposed in January 2008 justified?

This paper examines whether increases to published wholesale prices justify the retail electricity price increases imposed on residential consumers in January 2008. The study is based on analysis of two questions: Is the reported wholesale price a reliable indicator of the cost electricity retailers are paying to buy power; and is the corporate structure of the British electricity sector competitive? [Taken from first paragraph of summary]

James Anderson's Political Economy--His Influence on Smith and Malthus

James Anderson's powerful critique of Adam Smith's position on the corn export bounty was published in 1777. It focuse d on Smith's proposition that the bounty could not lead to increased corn production because it could not increase corn's real price. Smit h's response to the critique is traced in later editions of Wealth of Nations. While Anderson's critique of Smith influenced Thomas Malthu s's writings from 1803 onwards, his theory of differential rent did n ot influence Malthus at this stage. An examination of the evolution o f Malthus's ideas on rent between 1803 and 1815, however, indicates t hat Malthus knew and used Anderson's work on rent.