Modelling fixed plant and algal dynamics in rivers: an application to the River Frome

The development of eutrophication in river systems is poorly understood given the complex relationship between fixed plants, algae, hydrodynamics, water chemistry and solar radiation. However there is a pressing need to understand the relationship between the ecological status of rivers and the controlling environmental factors to help the reasoned implementation of the Water Framework Directive and Catchment Sensitive Farming in the UK. This research aims to create a dynamic, process-based, mathematical in-stream model to simulate the growth and competition of different vegetation types (macrophytes, phytoplankton and benthic algae) in rivers. The model, applied to the River Frome (Dorset, UK), captured well the seasonality of simulated vegetation types (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm). Macrophyte results showed that local knowledge is important for explaining unusual changes in biomass. Fixed algae simulations indicated the need for the more detailed representation of various herbivorous grazer groups, however this would increase the model complexity, the number of model parameters and the required observation data to better define the model. The model results also highlighted that simulating only phytoplankton is insufficient in river systems, because the majority of the suspended algae have benthic origin in short retention time rivers. Therefore, there is a need for modelling tools that link the benthic and free-floating habitats.

Vidibus: a low-cost, modular bus system for real-time video processing

The advantages of standard bus systems have been appreciated for many years. The ability to connect only those modules required to perform a given task has both technical and commercial advantages over a system with a fixed architecture which cannot be easily expanded or updated. Although such bus standards have proliferated in the microprocessor field, a general purpose low-cost standard for digital video processing has yet to gain acceptance. The paper describes the likely requirements of such a system, and discusses three currently available commercial systems. A new bus specification known as Vidibus, developed to fulfil these requirements, is presented. Results from applications already implemented using this real-time bus system are also given.

Is there a “case for property” all the time?

The “case for property” in the mixed-asset portfolio is a topic of continuing interest to practitioners and academics. Such an analysis typically is performed over a fixed period of time and the optimum allocation to property inferred from the weight assigned to property through the use of mean-variance analysis. It is well known, however, that the parameters used in the portfolio analysis problem are unstable through time. Thus, the weight proposed for property in one period is unlikely to be that found in another. Consequently, in order to assess the case for property more thoroughly, the impact of property in the mixed-asset portfolio is evaluated on a rolling basis over a long period of time. In this way we test whether the inclusion of property significantly improves the performance of an existing equity/bond portfolio all of the time. The main findings are that the inclusion of direct property into an existing equity/bond portfolio leads to increase or decreases in return, depending on the relative performance of property compared with the other asset classes. However, including property in the mixed-asset portfolio always leads to reductions in portfolio risk. Consequently, adding property into an equity/bond portfolio can lead to significant increases in risk-adjusted performance. Thus, if the decision to include direct property in the mixed-asset portfolio is based upon its diversification benefits the answer is yes, there is a “case for property” all the time!

Reconstruction of gusty wind speed time series from autonomous data logger records

The collection of wind speed time series by means of digital data loggers occurs in many domains, including civil engineering, environmental sciences and wind turbine technology. Since averaging intervals are often significantly larger than typical system time scales, the information lost has to be recovered in order to reconstruct the true dynamics of the system. In the present work we present a simple algorithm capable of generating a real-time wind speed time series from data logger records containing the average, maximum, and minimum values of the wind speed in a fixed interval, as well as the standard deviation. The signal is generated from a generalized random Fourier series. The spectrum can be matched to any desired theoretical or measured frequency distribution. Extreme values are specified through a postprocessing step based on the concept of constrained simulation. Applications of the algorithm to 10-min wind speed records logged at a test site at 60 m height above the ground show that the recorded 10-min values can be reproduced by the simulated time series to a high degree of accuracy.

Bayesian estimation of the double hurdle model in the presence of fixed costs

We present a model of market participation in which the presence of non-negligible fixed costs leads to random censoring of the traditional double-hurdle model. Fixed costs arise when household resources must be devoted a priori to the decision to participate in the market. These costs, usually of time, are manifested in non-negligible minimum-efficient supplies and supply correspondence that requires modification of the traditional Tobit regression. The costs also complicate econometric estimation of household behavior. These complications are overcome by application of the Gibbs sampler. The algorithm thus derived provides robust estimates of the fixed-costs, double-hurdle model. The model and procedures are demonstrated in an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands.

Critical slip and time dependence in sea ice friction

Recent research into sea ice friction has focussed on ways to provide a model which maintains much of the clarity and simplicity of Amonton's law, yet also accounts for memory effects. One promising avenue of research has been to adapt the rate- and state- dependent models which are prevalent in rock friction. In such models it is assumed that there is some fixed critical slip displacement, which is effectively a measure of the displacement over which memory effects might be considered important. Here we show experimentally that a fixed critical slip displacement is not a valid assumption in ice friction, whereas a constant critical slip time appears to hold across a range of parameters and scales. As a simple rule of thumb, memory effects persist to a significant level for 10 s. We then discuss the implications of this finding for modelling sea ice friction and for our understanding of friction in general.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magnetic reconnection: II. Measuring expansions in the ionospheric flow response

A numerical model embodying the concepts of the Cowley-Lockwood (Cowley and Lockwood, 1992, 1997) paradigm has been used to produce a simple Cowley– Lockwood type expanding flow pattern and to calculate the resulting change in ion temperature. Cross-correlation, fixed threshold analysis and threshold relative to peak are used to determine the phase speed of the change in convection pattern, in response to a change in applied reconnection. Each of these methods fails to fully recover the expansion of the onset of the convection response that is inherent in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that any expansion of the convection pattern will be best observed in time-series data using a threshold which is a fixed fraction of the peak response. We show that these methods used to determine the expansion velocity can be used to discriminate between the two main models for the convection response to a change in reconnection.

Myeloperoxidase activity is increased in gingival crevicular fluid and whole saliva after fixed orthodontic appliance activation

Introduction: Orthodontic tooth movement uses mechanical forces that result in inflammation in the first days. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) is an enzyme found in polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) granules, and it is used to estimate the number of PMN granules in tissues. So far, MPO has not been used to study the inflammatory alterations after the application of orthodontic tooth movement forces. The aim of this study was to determine MPO activity in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) and saliva (whole stimulated saliva) of orthodontic patients at different time points after fixed appliance activation. Methods: MPO was determined in the GCF and collected by means of periopaper from the saliva of 14 patients with orthodontic fixed appliances. GCF and saliva samples were collected at baseline, 2 hours, and 7 and 14 days after application of the orthodontic force. Results: Mean MPO activity was increased in both the GCF and saliva of orthodontic patients at 2 hours after appliance activation (P<0.02 for all comparisons). At 2 hours, PMN infiltration into the periodontal ligament from the orthodontic force probably results in the increased MPO level observed at this time point. Conclusions: MPO might be a good marker to assess inflammation in orthodontic movement; it deserves further studies in orthodontic therapy. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010;138:613-6)

Modified Fixed Effects Estimation of Technical Inefficiency

We consider method of moment fixed effects (FE) estimation of technical inefficiency. When N, the number of cross sectional observations, is large it ispossible to obtain consistent central moments of the population distribution of the inefficiencies. It is well-known that the traditional FE estimator may be seriously upward biased when N is large and T, the number of time observations, is small. Based on the second central moment and a single parameter distributional assumption on the inefficiencies, we obtain unbiased technical inefficiencies in large N settings. The proposed methodology bridges traditional FE and maximum likelihood estimation – bias is reduced without the random effects assumption.

A finite sample improvement of the fixed effects estimator : applied to technical infficiency

The FE ('fixed effects') estimator of technical inefficiency performs poorly when N ('number of firms') is large and T ('number of time observations') is small. We propose estimators of both the firm effects and the inefficiencies, which have small sample gains compared to the traditional FE estimator. The estimators are based on nonparametric kernel regression of unordered variables, which includes the FE estimator as a special case. In terms of global conditional MSE ('mean square error') criterions, it is proved that there are kernel estimators which are efficient to the FE estimators of firm effects and inefficiencies, in finite samples. Monte Carlo simulations supports our theoretical findings and in an empirical example it is shown how the traditional FE estimator and the proposed kernel FE estimator lead to very different conclusions about inefficiency of Indonesian rice farmers.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Endogenous time-dependent rules and inflation inertia: preliminary version

When policy rules are changed, the effect of nominal rigidities should be modelled through endogenous pricing rules. We endogenize Taylor (1979) type pricing rule to examine the output effects of monetary disinflations. We derive optimal fixed-price time-dependent rules in inflationary steady states and during disinflations. We also develop a methodology to aggregate individual pricing rules which vary through disinflation. This allows us to reevaluate the output costs of monetary disinflation, including aspects as the role of the initial leveI of inflation and the importance of the degree of credibility of the policy change.

Segurança das condições de aplicação de herbicidas com aerobarco em plantas daninhas aquáticas no lago da Hidrelétrica de Jupiá

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram quantificar as exposições dérmicas (EDs) e respiratórias (ERs) proporcionadas ao piloto e ao seu ajudante nas aplicações de herbicidas para o controle de plantas daninhas aquáticas com aerobarco; classificar essas condições de trabalho em seguras ou inseguras; e calcular a necessidade de controle das exposições (NCE) e o tempo de trabalho seguro (TTS). O aerobarco utilizado tinha casco de alumínio (4,85 x 2,42 m) e acionamento por hélice acoplada a motor a gasolina de 350 HP. O equipamento de pulverização era composto por bomba de diafragma com fluxo máximo de 49,69 L min-1, pressão máxima de 25 kg cm-2, acionada por motor a gasolina de 4 HP, e tanque de calda de 189 L. A barra de pulverização de alumínio era composta de duas seções laterais de 3 m, posicionadas na linha entre o encosto do banco do piloto e o início da estrutura protetora da hélice. Cada seção da barra tinha seis bicos com pontas de jato plano com indução de ar AI 100 03, espaçados de 0,5 m, e uma ponta OC 20 fixada em cada extremidade. O conjunto de pontas pulverizava faixas de 6 m de largura e aplicava o volume de calda de 200 L ha-1. O sistema tinha gerenciador de fluxo, controlado por central eletrônica acoplada a DGPS (com precisão submétrica), para corrigir automaticamente a vazão em função de alterações na velocidade real da embarcação. As EDs e ERs aos herbicidas foram calculadas com os dados substitutos das exposições às caldas, avaliadas com os traçadores cobre e manganês adicionados às caldas. As exposições foram extrapoladas para uma jornada de trabalho de seis horas. A segurança das condições de trabalho foi determinada com o cálculo da margem de segurança (MS), utilizando-se a fórmula MS = (NOEL x 70)/(QAE x 10), em que QAE = quantidade absorvível da exposição. As condições de trabalho foram classificadas em seguras, se MS>1, ou inseguras, se MS<1. As exposições proporcionadas pelas condições de trabalho foram de 10,65 mL de calda por dia para o piloto e de 16,80 mL por dia para o ajudante, que fica sentado em uma cadeira a 2,0 m à frente do piloto e da barra de pulverização. Classificaram-se como seguras as aplicações dos herbicidas glyphosate (Rodeo, 6 L ha-1), 2,4D (DMA 806 BR, 8 L ha-1) e fluridone (Sonar AQ, 0,4 L ha-1), para o piloto e o seu ajudante. Classificou-se como insegura a aplicação do herbicida diquat (Reward, 4,0 L ha-1) para as duas condições de trabalho, cujas necessidades de controle das exposições calculadas foram de 65% para o piloto e de 78% para o ajudante do piloto.

Effect of sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of multiple semen straws on conception rate to timed AI in suckled multiparous Nelore cows

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)