Weibull model selection for reliability modelling

A large number of models have been derived from the two-parameter Weibull distribution and are referred to as Weibull models. They exhibit a wide range of shapes for the density and hazard functions, which makes them suitable for modelling complex failure data sets. The WPP and IWPP plot allows one to determine in a systematic manner if one or more of these models are suitable for modelling a given data set. This paper deals with this topic.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

RWMODEL II: Computer simulation of the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning

RWMODEL II simulates the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning. It is written in Delphi and runs under Windows 3.1 and Windows 95. The program was designed for novice and expert users and can be employed in teaching, as well as in research. It is user friendly and requires a minimal level of computer literacy but is sufficiently flexible to permit a wide range of simulations. It allows the display of empirical data, against which predictions from the model can be validated.

A model for adsorption of condensable vapors on nonporous materials

A new isotherm is proposed here for adsorption of condensable vapors and gases on nonporous materials having type II isotherms according to the Brunauer-Deming-Deming-Teller (BDDH) classification. The isotherm combines the recent molecular-continuum model in the multilayer region, with other widely used models for sub-monolayer coverage, some of which satisfy the requirement of a Henry's law asymptote. The model is successfully tested using isotherm data for nitrogen adsorption on nonporous silica, carbon and alumina, as well as benzene and hexane adsorption on nonporous carbon. Based on the data fits, out of several different alternative choices of model for the monolayer region, the Freundlich and the Unilan models are found to be the most successful when combined with the multilayer model to predict the whole isotherm. The hybrid model is consequently applicable over a wide pressure range. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cyclotron effective masses in layered metals

Many layered metals such as quasi-two-dimensional organic molecular crystals show properties consistent with a Fermi-liquid description at low temperatures. The effective masses extracted from the temperature dependence of the magnetic oscillations observed in these materials are in the range, m(c)*/m(e) similar to 1 - 7, suggesting that these systems are strongly correlated. However, the ratio m(c)*/m(e) contains both the renormalization due to the electron-electron interaction and the periodic potential of the lattice. We show that for any quasi-two-dimensional band structure, the cyclotron mass is proportional to the density-of-states at the Fermi energy. Due to Luttinger's theorem, this result is also valid in the presence of interactions. We then evaluate m(c) for several model band structures for the beta, kappa, and theta families of (BEDT-TTF)(2)X, where BEDT-TTF is bis-(ethylenedithia-tetrathiafulvalene) and X is an anion. We find that for kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X, the cyclotron mass of the beta orbit, m(c)*(beta) is close to 2 m(c)*(alpha), where m(c)*(alpha) is the effective mass of the alpha orbit. This result is fairly insensitive to the band-structure details. For a wide range of materials we compare values of the cyclotron mass deduced from band-structure calculations to values deduced from measurements of magnetic oscillations and the specific-heat coefficient gamma.

AT(1) blockade during lactation as a model of chronic nephropathy: mechanisms of renal injury

Suppression of the renin-angiotensin system during lactation causes irreversible renal structural changes. In this study we investigated 1) the time course and the mechanisms underlying the chronic kidney disease caused by administration of the AT(1) receptor blocker losartan during lactation, and 2) whether this untoward effect can be used to engender a new model of chronic kidney disease. Male Munich-Wistar pups were divided into two groups: C, whose mothers were untreated, and L(Lact), whose mothers received oral losartan (250 mg.kg(-1).day(-1)) during the first 20 days after delivery. At 3 mo of life, both nephron number and the glomerular filtration rate were reduced in L(Lact) rats, whereas glomerular pressure was elevated. Unselective proteinuria and decreased expression of the zonula occludens-1 protein were also observed, along with modest glomerulosclerosis, significant interstitial expansion and inflammation, and wide glomerular volume variation, with a stable subpopulation of exceedingly small glomeruli. In addition, the urine osmolality was persistently lower in L(Lact) rats. At 10 mo of age, L(Lact) rats exhibited systemic hypertension, heavy albuminuria, substantial glomerulosclerosis, severe renal interstitial expansion and inflammation, and creatinine retention. Conclusions are that 1) oral losartan during lactation can be used as a simple and easily reproducible model of chronic kidney disease in adult life, associated with low mortality and no arterial hypertension until advanced stages; and 2) the mechanisms involved in the progression of renal injury in this model include glomerular hypertension, glomerular hypertrophy, podocyte injury, and interstitial inflammation.

Ferromagnetism, paramagnetism, and a Curie-Weiss metal in an electron-doped Hubbard model on a triangular lattice

Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.

Endoscopic Anatomy of the Pterygopalatine Fossa and the Transpterygoid Approach: Development of a Surgical Instruction Model

Introduction: The pterygopalatine fossa (PPF) is a narrow space located between the posterior wall of the antrum and the pterygoid plates. Surgical access to the PPF is difficult because of its protected position and its complex neurovascular anatomy. Endonasal approaches using rod lens endoscopes, however, provide better visualization of this area and are associated with less morbidity than external approaches. Our aim was to develop a simple anatomical model using cadaveric specimens injected with intravascular colored silicone to demonstrate the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF. This model could be used for surgical instruction of the transpterygoid approach. Methods: We dissected six PPF in three cadaveric specimens prepared with intravascular injection of colored material using two different injection techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach, including a wide nasoantral window and removal of the posterior antrum wall, provided access to the PPF. Results: We produced our best anatomical model injecting colored silicone via the common carotid artery. We found that, using an endoscopic approach, a retrograde dissection of the sphenopalatine artery helped to identify the internal maxillary artery (IMA) and its branches. Neural structures were identified deeper to the vascular elements. Notable anatomical landmarks for the endoscopic surgeon are the vidian nerve and its canal that leads to the petrous portion of the internal carotid artery (ICA), and the foramen rotundum, and V2 that leads to Meckel`s cave in the middle cranial fossa. These two nerves, vidian and V2, are separated by a pyramidal shaped bone and its apex marks the ICA. Conclusion: Our anatomical model provides the means to learn the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF and may be used for the simulation of surgical techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach provides adequate exposure to all anatomical structures within the PPF. These structures may be used as landmarks to identify and control deeper neurovascular structures. The significance is that an anatomical model facilitates learning the surgical anatomy and the acquisition of surgical skills. A dissection superficial to the vascular structures preserves the neural elements. These nerves and their bony foramina, such as the vidian nerve and V2, are critical anatomical landmarks to identify and control the ICA at the skull base.

Tension band wire fixation for valgus osteotomies of the proximal femur: A biomechanical study of three configurations of fixation

Background. A variety of techniques can be used to achieve stabilization of femoral valgus osteotomies in children, but what is lacking is a versatile fixation system that associates stability and versatility at different ages and for different degrees of deformity. Methods. Mechanical tests of three configurations used to fix femoral valgus osteotomies, based oil the tension band wire principle, were carried out. A 30 degrees wedge valgus osteotomy was performed at the subtrochanteric level in 60 swine femurs and fixed with three different systems. In Group 1, two Kirschner wires (K wire) were introduced from the tip of the greater trochanter to the medial cortex, crossing the osteotomy. A flexible steel wire was anchored to the K wires into holes in the lateral cortex and tightened to form a tension band. The same setup was used in Group 2, but two additional smooth K wires were inserted into the lateral surface of the greater trochanter and driven to the femoral head with the distal extremities bent and tied around tile bone shaft. In Group 3, the fixation was similar to that in Group 2, but tile ascending K wires were introduced below the osteotomy level, crossing the osteotonly. Mechanical tests in bending-compression and torsion were used to access the stability. Findings. The torsional relative stiffness was 116% greater for Group 3 (0.27 N m/degree) and no significant difference was found between Group 1 (0.10 N m/degree) and Group 2 (0.12 N m/degree). The average torque was 103% higher for Group 3 (1.86 N m). Stiffness in bending-compression was significantly higher in Group 3 (508 x 10(3) N/m) than in Group 1 (211 x 10(3) N/m) and Group 2 (219 x 10(3) N/m). Interpretation. Fixation as used in Group 3 was significantly more stable, both in torsion and bending-compression tests, than tile other two techniques. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heart rate and arterial pressure variability in the experimental renovascular hypertension model in rats

This study was conducted in one kidney, one clip (1K1C) Goldblatt hypertensive rats to evaluate vascular and cardiac autonomic control using different approaches: 1) evaluation of the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) and systolic arterial pressure (SAP) by means of autoregressive power spectral analysis 2) assessment of the cardiac baroreflex sensitivity; and 3) double blockade with methylatropine and propranolol. The 1K1C group developed hypertension and tachycardia. The 1K1C group also presented reduction in variance as well as in LF (0.23 +/- 0.1 vs. 1.32 +/- 0.2 ms(2)) and HF (6.6 +/- 0.49 vs. 15.1 +/- 0.61 ms(2)) oscillations of pulse interval. Autoregressive spectral analysis of SAP showed that 1K1C rats had an increase in variance and LF band (13.3 +/- 2.7 vs. 7.4 +/- 1.01 mmHg(2)) in comparison with the sham group. The baroreflex gain was attenuated in the hypertensive 1K1C (- 1.83 +/- 0.05 bpm/mmHg) rats in comparison with normotensive sham (-3.23 +/- 0.06 bpm/MmHg) rats. The autonomic blockade caused an increase in the intrinsic HR and sympathetic predominance on the basal HR of 1K1C rats. Overall, these data indicate that the tachycardia observed in the 1K1C group may be attributed to intrinsic cardiac mechanisms (increased intrinsic heart rate) and to a shift in the sympathovagal balance towards cardiac sympathetic over-activity and vagal suppression associated to depressed baroreflex sensitivity. Finally, the increase in the LF components of SAP also suggests an increase in sympathetic activity to peripheral vessels. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model based procedure for scale-up of wet overflow ball mills Part 1: Outline of the methodology

Bond's method for ball mill scale-up only gives the mill power draw for a given duty. This method is incompatible with computer modelling and simulation techniques. It might not be applicable for the design of fine grinding ball mills and ball mills preceded by autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. Model-based ball mill scale-up methods have not been validated using a wide range of full-scale circuit data. Their accuracy is therefore questionable. Some of these methods also need expensive pilot testing. A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which does not have these limitations. This procedure uses data from two laboratory tests to determine the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of full-scale mill circuits. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw.

Predicting coal ash slag flow characteristics (viscosity model for the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system)

A model has been developed which enables the viscosities of coal ash slags to be predicted as a function of composition and temperature under reducing conditions. The model describes both completely liquid and heterogeneous, i.e. partly crystallised, slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system in equilibrium with metallic iron. The Urbain formalism has been modified to describe the viscosities of the liquid slag phase over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. The computer package F * A * C * T was used to predict the proportions of solids and the compositions of the remaining liquid phases. The Roscoe equation has been used to describe the effect of presence of solid suspension (slurry effect) on the viscosity of partly crystallised slag systems. The model provides a good description of the experimental data of fully liquid, and liquid + solids mixtures, over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. This model can now be used for viscosity predictions in industrial slag systems. Examples of the application of the new model to coal ash fluxing and blending are given in the paper. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Quasimode theory of quantum optical processes in photonic band gap materials

This paper deals with atomic systems coupled to a structured reservoir of quantum EM field modes, with particular relevance to atoms interacting with the field in photonic band gap materials. The case of high Q cavities has been treated elsewhere using Fano diagonalization based on a quasimode approach, showing that the cavity quasimodes are responsible for pseudomodes introduced to treat non-Markovian behaviour. The paper considers a simple model of a photonic band gap case, where the spatially dependent permittivity consists of a constant term plus a small spatially periodic term that leads to a narrow band gap in the spectrum of mode frequencies. Most treatments of photonic band gap materials are based on the true modes, obtained numerically by solving the Helmholtz equation for the actual spatially periodic permittivity. Here the field modes are first treated in terms of a simpler quasimode approach, in which the quasimodes are plane waves associated with the constant permittivity term. Couplings between the quasimodes occur owing to the small periodic term in the permittivity, with selection rules for the coupled modes being related to the reciprocal lattice vectors. This produces a field Hamiltonian in quasimode form. A matrix diagonalization method may be applied to relate true mode annihilation operators to those for quasimodes. The atomic transitions are coupled to all the quasimodes, and the true mode atom-EM field coupling constants (one-photon Rabi frequencies) are related to those for the quasimodes and also expressions are obtained for the true mode density. The results for the one-photon Rabi frequencies differ from those assumed in other work. Expressions for atomic decay rates are obtained using the Fermi Golden rule, although these are valid only well away from the band gaps.