Распределение плотностей вероятностей значений радиолокационных и аэрологических параметров, подвергнутых и не подвергнутых воздействию конвективных облаков различных синоптических ситуаций

ხელოვნური ზემოქმედების ფიზიკური ეფექტის გამოვლენის მიზნით გაანალიზებულია აღმოსავლეთ საქართველოს ალაზნის ველზე შიდამასიურ და ფრონტალურ ღრუბლებზე რადიოლოკაციური დაკვირვებების მასალები. შესწავლილია ზემოქმედებაქმნილი და არაზემოქმედებაქმნილი კონვექციური ღრუბლების რადიოლოკაციური და აეროლოგიური პარამეტრების მნიშვნელობების ალბათობათა სიმკვრივეების განაწილებები.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.

Comportamento do Heterocromossômio em alguns Ortópteros do Brasil

In the present paper the behavior of the heterochromoso-mes in the course of the meiotic divisions of the spermatocytes in 15 species of Orthoptera belonging to 6 different families was studied. The species treated and their respective chromosome numbers were: Phaneropteridae: Anaulacomera sp. - 1 - 2n = 30 + X, n +15+ X and 15. Anaulacomera sp. - 2 - 2n - 30 + X, n = 15+ X and 15. Stilpnochlora marginella - 2n = 30 + X, n = 15= X and 15. Scudderia sp. - 2n = 30 + X, n = 15+ X and 15. Posldippus citrifolius - 2n = 24 + X, n = 12+X and 12. Acrididae: Osmilia violacea - 2n = 22+X, n = 11 + X and 11. Tropinotus discoideus - 2n = 22+ X, n = 11 + X and 11. Leptysma dorsalis - 2n = 22 + X, n = 11-J-X and 11. Orphulella punctata - 2n = 22-f X, n = 11 + X and 11. Conocephalidae: Conocephalus sp. - 2n = 32 + X, n = 16 + X and 16. Proscopiidae: Cephalocoema zilkari - 2n = 16 + X, n = 8+ X and 8. Tetanorhynchus mendesi - 2n = 16 + X, n = 8+X and 8. Gryliidae: Gryllus assimilis - 2n = 28 + X, n = 14+X and 14. Gryllodes sp. - 2n = 20 + X, n = 10- + and 10. Phalangopsitidae: Endecous cavernicola - 2n = 18 +X, n = 94-X and 9. It was pointed out by the present writer that in the Orthoptera similarly to what he observed in the Hemiptera the heterochromosome in the heterocinetic division shows in the same individual indifferently precession, synchronism or succession. This lack of specificity is therefore pointed here as constituting the rule and not the exception as formerly beleaved by the students of this problem, since it occurs in all the species referred to in the present paper and probably also m those hitherto investigated. The variability in the behavior of the heterochromosome which can have any position with regard to the autosomes even in the same follicle is attributed to the fact that being rather a stationary body it retains in anaphase the place it had in metaphase. When this place is in the equator of the cell the heterochromosome will be left behind as soon as anaphase begins (succession). When, on the contrary, laying out of this plane as generally happens (precession) it will sooner be reached (synchronism) or passed by the autosomes (succession). Due to the less kinetic activity of the heterochromosome it does not orient itself at metaphase remaining where it stands with the kinetochore looking indifferently to any direction. At the end of anaphase and sometimes earlier the heterochromosome begins to show mitotic activities revealed by the division of its body. Then, responding to the influence of the nearer pole it moves to it being enclosed with the autosomes in the nucleus formed there. The position of the heterochromosome in the cell is explained in the following manner: It is well known that the heterochromosome of the Orthoptera is always at the periphery of the nucleus, just beneath the nuclear membrane. This position may be any in regard of the axis of the dividing cell, so that if one of the poles of the spindle comes to coincide with it, the heterochromosome will appear at this pole in the metaphasic figures. If, on the other hand, the angle formed by the axis of the spindle with the ray reaching the heterochromosome increases the latter will appear in planes farther and farther apart from the nearer pole until it finishes by being in the equatorial plane. In this way it is not difficult to understand precession, synchronism or succession. In the species in which the heterochromosome is very large as it generally happens in the Phaneropteridae, the positions corresponding to precession are much more frequent. This is due to the fact that the probabilities for the heterochromosome taking an intermediary position between the equator and the poles at the time the spindle is set up are much greater than otherwise. Moreover, standing always outside the spindle area it searches for a place exactly where this area is larger, that is, in the vicinity of the poles. If it comes to enter the spindle area, what has very little probability, it would be, in virtue of its size, propelled toward the pole by the nearing anaphasic plate. The cases of succession are justly those in which the heterochromosome taking a position parallelly to the spindle axis it can adjust its large body also in the equator or in its proximity. In the species provided with small heterochromosome (Gryllidae, Conocephalidae, Acrididae) succession is found much more frequently because here as in the Hemiptera (PIZA 1945) the heterochromosome can equally take equatorial or subequatorial positions, and, furthermore, when in the spindle area it does offer no sereous obstacle to the passage of the autosomes. The position of the heterochromosome at the periphery of the nucleus at different stages may be as I suppose, at least in part a question of density. The less colourability and the surface irregularities characteristic of this element may well correspond to a less degree of condensation which may influence passive movements. In one of the species studied here (Anaulacomera sp.- 1) included in the Phaneropteridae it was observed that the plasmosome is left motionless in the spindle as the autosomes move toward the poles. It passes to one of the secondary spermatocytes being not included in its nucleus. In the second division it again passes to one of the cells being cast off when the spermatid is being transformed into spermatozoon. Thus it is regularly found among the tails of the spermatozoa in different stages of development. In the opinion of the present writer, at least in some cases, corpuscles described as Golgi body's remanents are nothing more than discarded plasmosomes.

Estudo sôbre a variação da produção leiteira na raça holandesa malhada de preto

The authors studied the effects of calving time, season and time elapsed after calving on milk production of the Holstein Friesian Breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba, Brasil), 180 lactation periods of 300 days were studied, with 15 calvings in each month. Statistical analysis of the data proved : 1. That calving in May, June, July or August, that is, in the driest months, the cows give a milk production 17,3% larger than calving in December, January, February, March or April. August is the best month for calving, and February is the worst. 2. Spring is the most favorable, and Autumn the most unfavorable season for milk production. 3. The decrease of milk production during the lactation period depends largely on calving time. But, on the whole, linear regression can be used as a good aproximation, with a correlation coefficient r = - 0,9926 and a monthly decrease, per month elapsed after calving, of 8,06 percent of the general mean. 4. Diagram 1 shows the effects of calving month on milk production. The limits of 5%, 1% and l%o of probabilities are given there.

The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for the quantitative analysis of the private and fiscal returns to schooling and of the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education. This framework is applied to 14 member states of the European Union. For each of these countries, we construct estimates of the private return to an additional year of schooling for an individual of average attainment, taking into account the effects of education on wages and employment probabilities after allowing for academic failure rates, the direct and opportunity costs of schooling, and the impact of personal taxes, social security contributions and unemployment and pension benefits on net incomes. We also construct a set of effective tax and subsidy rates that measure the effects of different public policies on the private returns to education, and measures of the fiscal returns to schooling that capture the long-term effects of a marginal increase in attainment on public finances under c

Human capital as a factor of growth and employment at the regional level. The case of Spain

We use statistical techniques to quantify the effects of school attainment on individual wages, participation rates and employment probabilities in Spain, and to measure the contribution of education to labour productivity at the regional level. These estimates are then combined with data on private and public expenditure on education and with information on taxes and social benefits to construct measures of the private and social returns to schooling, to explore the effects of public policies on private incentives to invest in human capital, and to analyse the long-term effects of schooling on public finances. The results are used, together with estimates of the returns to alternative assets, to draw some tentative conclusions regarding the adequacy of the aggregate investment patterns observed in the regions of Spain, and to identify changes in the design of national and EU cohesion and growth policies that may help enhance their effectiveness.

Long-Term Trends of HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Prevalence among Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced Patients in Switzerland.

Background. Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. Methods. On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). Results. Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. Conclusions. Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

The Private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for the quantitative analysis of the private and fiscal returns to schooling and of the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education. This framework is applied to 14 member states of the European Union. For each of these countries, we construct estimates of the private return to an additional year of schooling for an individual of average attainment, taking into account the effects of education on wages and employment probabilities after allowing for academic failure rates, the direct and opportunity costs of schooling, and the impact of personal taxes, social security contributions and unemployment and pension benefits on net incomes. We also construct a set of effective tax and subsidy rates that measure the effects of different public policies on the private returns to education, and measures of the fiscal returns to schooling that capture the long-term effects of a marginal increase in attainment on public finances under conditions that approximate general equilibrium.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Foundations for contest success functions

In the literature the outcome of contests is either interpreted as win probabilities or as shares of the prize. With this in mind, we examine two approaches to contest success functions. In the first we analyze the implications of contestants' incomplete information concerning the "type" of the contest administrator. While in the case of two contestants this approach can rationalize prominent contest success functions, we show that it runs into difficulties when there are more agents. Our second approach interprets contest success functions as sharing rules and establishes a connection to bargaining and claims problems which is independent of the number of contestants. Both approaches provide foundations for popular contest success functions and guidelines for the definition of new ones. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function. JEL Classification: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances).

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.

Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model

Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady-state debt to follow a random walk. Leith and Wren-Lewis (2012) consider the nature of the timeinconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policy-making. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady-state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government’s objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt-stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi-commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. This on-line Appendix extends the results of this paper.

Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model

Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady-state debt to follow a random walk. Leith and Wren-Lewis (2012) consider the nature of the timeinconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policy-making. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady-state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government’s objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt-stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi-commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. This on-line Appendix extends the results of this paper.