Meteomap: Generation Of Meteorological Variables For Distributed Physically-Based Hydrological Modeling

Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the meteorological variables involved in hydrological processes. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to extrapolate the point scale values registered at weather stations at a watershed scale. In mountainous areas, where the monitoring network ineffectively covers the complex terrain heterogeneity, simple geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation are not always representative enough, and algorithms that explicitly or implicitly account for the features creating strong local gradients in the meteorological variables must be applied. Originally developed as a meteorological pre-processing tool for a complete hydrological model (WiMMed), MeteoMap has become an independent software. The individual interpolation algorithms used to approximate the spatial distribution of each meteorological variable were carefully selected taking into account both, the specific variable being mapped, and the common lack of input data from Mediterranean mountainous areas. They include corrections with height for both rainfall and temperature (Herrero et al., 2007), and topographic corrections for solar radiation (Aguilar et al., 2010). MeteoMap is a GIS-based freeware upon registration. Input data include weather station records and topographic data and the output consists of tables and maps of the meteorological variables at hourly, daily, predefined rainfall event duration or annual scales. It offers its own pre and post-processing tools, including video outlook, map printing and the possibility of exporting the maps to images or ASCII ArcGIS formats. This study presents the friendly user interface of the software and shows some case studies with applications to hydrological modeling.

Supply chain turbulence: the impact of a mid-range event in multi-tier, multi-dimension supply chains

Nota: A autora agradece à Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) pela concessão de bolsa de estudos para o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa.

The influence of the tag-along rights in the value of companies: an event study of the effects on the market and service companies

The aim of this work is to check the effect of granting tag-along rights to stockholders by analyzing the behavior of the return of the stock. To do so we carried out event studies for a group of 21 company stocks, divided into service provider companies and others, who granted this right to their stockholders after Law 10,303 was passed in October, 2001. In the test we used two models for estimating abnormal returns: adjusted to the market and adjusted to the risk and market. The results of the tests we carried out based on these models did not capture abnormal returns (surpluses), telling us that the tag-along rights did not affect the pattern of daily returns of the stocks of companies traded on BOVESPA (The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange). We did not expect this result because of the new corporate governance practices adopted by companies in Brazil.

Do insiders get abnormal returns? : event studies on the trades of insiders of the firms with differentiated corporate governance of the São Paulo stock exchange

The subject insider trading is controversial. This paper presents series of event studies carried through on the trades with stocks of the firm carried by insiders with the objective to detect abnormal returns, based on the access to privileged information. The sample is composed by trades performed by insiders of the companies with stocks negotiated in the São Paulo Stock Exchange, that are classified as firms with differentiated corporate governance. Indication that trades performed by insiders resulted in abnormal returns compared to the statistically significant expected ones, as in the purchases of common shares; or for selling of preferred stocks.

Vertical distribution of benthic invertebrate larvae during an upwelling event along a transect off the tropical Brazilian continental margin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A neural network-based preset generation tool for a steel tandem cold mill

This paper traces the development of a software tool, based oil a combination of artificial neural networks (ANN) and a few process equations. aiming to serve as a backup operation instrument in the reference generation for real-time controllers of a steel tandem cold mill By emulating the mathematical model responsible for generating presets under normal operational conditions, the system works as ail option to maintain plant operation in the event of a failure in the processing unit that executes the mathematical model. The system, built from the production data collected over six years of plant operation, steered to the replacement of the former backup operation mode (based oil a lookup table). which degraded both product quality and plant productivity. The study showed that ANN are appropriated tools for the intended purpose and that by this instrument it is possible to achieve nearly the totality of the presets needed by this land of process. The text characterizes the problem, relates the investigated options to solve it. justifies the choice of the ANN approach, describes the methodology and system implementation and, finally, shows and discusses the attained results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Photogrammetric refinement of laser-based building roof contours

In this paper a photogrammetric method is proposed for refining 3D building roof contours extracted from airborne laser scanning data. It is assumed that laser-derived planar faces of roofs are potentially accurate, while laser-derived building roof contours are not well defined. First, polygons representing building roof contours are extracted from a high-resolution aerial image. In the sequence, straight-line segments delimitating each building roof polygon are projected onto the corresponding laser-derived roof planes by using a new line-based photogrammetric model. Finally, refined 3D building roof contours are reconstructed by connecting every pair of photogrammetrically- projected adjacent straight lines. The obtained results showed that the proposed approach worked properly, meaning that the integration of image data and laser scanning data allows better results to be obtained, when compared to the results generated by using only laser scanning data. © 2013 IEEE.

Cellular automata-based spatial dynamic modeling for analyzing urban land use change

This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of modernized GPS L5 SNR for ground-based multipath reflectometry applications

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Providing Reliable Data Transport for Dynamic Event Sensing in Wireless Sensor Networks

In this paper, we propose a Loss Tolerant Reliable (LTR) data transport mechanism for dynamic Event Sensing (LTRES) in WSNs. In LTRES, a reliable event sensing requirement at the transport layer is dynamically determined by the sink. A distributed source rate adaptation mechanism is designed, incorporating a loss rate based lightweight congestion control mechanism, to regulate the data traffic injected into the network so that the reliability requirement can be satisfied. An equation based fair rate control algorithm is used to improve the fairness among the LTRES flows sharing the congestion path. The performance evaluations show that LTRES can provide LTR data transport service for multiple events with short convergence time, low lost rate and high overall bandwidth utilization.

Spatio-Temporal Event Model for Cyber-Physical Systems

The emerging Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are envisioned to integrate computation, communication and control with the physical world. Therefore, CPS requires close interactions between the cyber and physical worlds both in time and space. These interactions are usually governed by events, which occur in the physical world and should autonomously be reflected in the cyber-world, and actions, which are taken by the CPS as a result of detection of events and certain decision mechanisms. Both event detection and action decision operations should be performed accurately and timely to guarantee temporal and spatial correctness. This calls for a flexible architecture and task representation framework to analyze CP operations. In this paper, we explore the temporal and spatial properties of events, define a novel CPS architecture, and develop a layered spatiotemporal event model for CPS. The event is represented as a function of attribute-based, temporal, and spatial event conditions. Moreover, logical operators are used to combine different types of event conditions to capture composite events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first event model that captures the heterogeneous characteristics of CPS for formal temporal and spatial analysis.

JVM-based Techniques for Improving Java Observability

Observability measures the support of computer systems to accurately capture, analyze, and present (collectively observe) the internal information about the systems. Observability frameworks play important roles for program understanding, troubleshooting, performance diagnosis, and optimizations. However, traditional solutions are either expensive or coarse-grained, consequently compromising their utility in accommodating today’s increasingly complex software systems. New solutions are emerging for VM-based languages due to the full control language VMs have over program executions. Existing such solutions, nonetheless, still lack flexibility, have high overhead, or provide limited context information for developing powerful dynamic analyses. In this thesis, we present a VM-based infrastructure, called marker tracing framework (MTF), to address the deficiencies in the existing solutions for providing better observability for VM-based languages. MTF serves as a solid foundation for implementing fine-grained low-overhead program instrumentation. Specifically, MTF allows analysis clients to: 1) define custom events with rich semantics ; 2) specify precisely the program locations where the events should trigger; and 3) adaptively enable/disable the instrumentation at runtime. In addition, MTF-based analysis clients are more powerful by having access to all information available to the VM. To demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of MTF, we present two analysis clients: 1) dynamic typestate analysis with adaptive online program analysis (AOPA); and 2) selective probabilistic calling context analysis (SPCC). In addition, we evaluate the runtime performance of MTF and the typestate client with the DaCapo benchmarks. The results show that: 1) MTF has acceptable runtime overhead when tracing moderate numbers of marker events; and 2) AOPA is highly effective in reducing the event frequency for the dynamic typestate analysis; and 3) language VMs can be exploited to offer greater observability.

Vertical distribution of benthic invertebrate larvae during an upwelling event along a transect off the tropical Brazilian continental margin

Abundance and composition of marine benthic communities have been relatively well studied in the SE Brazilian coast, but little is known on patterns controlling the distribution of their planktonic larval stages. A survey of larval abundance in the continental margin, using a Multi-Plankton Sampler, was conducted in a cross-shelf transect off Cabo Frio (23 degrees S and 42 degrees W) during a costal upwelling event. Hydrographic conditions were monitored through discrete CDT casts. Chlorophyll-a in the top 100 m of the water column was determined and changes in surface chlorophyll-a was estimated using SeaWiFS images. Based on the larval abundances and the meso-scale hydrodynamics scenario, our results suggest two different processes affecting larval distributions. High larval densities were found nearshore due to the upwelling event associated with high chlorophyll a and strong along shore current. On the continental slope, high larval abundance was associated with a clockwise rotating meander, which may have entrapped larvae from a region located further north (Cabo de Sao Tome, 22 degrees S and 41 degrees W). In mid-shelf areas, our data suggests that vertical migration may likely occur as a response to avoid offshore transport by upwelling plumes and/or cyclonic meanders. The hydrodynamic scenario observed in the study area has two distinct yet extremely important consequences: larval retention on food-rich upwelling areas and the broadening of the tropical domain to southernmost subtropical areas. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

We present the first high resolution, approximately similar to 4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as 'Nordeste') covering the last similar to 3000 yrs from Th-230-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability. Citation: Novello, V. F., et al. (2012), Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23706, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053936.