Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Acoustic Simulation of a Special Switched Reluctance Drive by Means of Field-Circuit Coupling and Multiphysics Simulation

The approach presented in this paper consists of an energy-based field-circuit coupling in combination with multi-physics simulation of the acoustic radiation of electrical machines. The proposed method is applied to a special switched reluctance motor with asymmetric pole geometry to improve the start-up torque. The pole shape has been optimized, subject to low torque ripple, in a previous study. The proposed approach here is used to analyze the impact of the optimization on the overall acoustic behavior. The field-circuit coupling is based on a temporary lumped-parameter model of the magnetic part incorporated into a circuit simulation based on the modified nodal analysis. The harmonic force excitation is calculated by means of stress tensor computation, and it is transformed to a mechanical mesh by mapping techniques. The structural dynamic problem is solved in the frequency domain using a finite-element modal analysis and superposition. The radiation characteristic is obtained from boundary element acoustic simulation. Simulation results of both rotor types are compared, and measurements of the drive are presented.

Reconfiguration of distribution networks to minimize loss and disruption costs using genetic algorithms

In this paper a computational implementation of an evolutionary algorithm (EA) is shown in order to tackle the problem of reconfiguring radial distribution systems. The developed module considers power quality indices such as long duration interruptions and customer process disruptions due to voltage sags, by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Power quality costs are modeled into the mathematical problem formulation, which are added to the cost of network losses. As for the EA codification proposed, a decimal representation is used. The EA operators, namely selection, recombination and mutation, which are considered for the reconfiguration algorithm, are herein analyzed. A number of selection procedures are analyzed, namely tournament, elitism and a mixed technique using both elitism and tournament. The recombination operator was developed by considering a chromosome structure representation that maps the network branches and system radiality, and another structure that takes into account the network topology and feasibility of network operation to exchange genetic material. The topologies regarding the initial population are randomly produced so as radial configurations are produced through the Prim and Kruskal algorithms that rapidly build minimum spanning trees. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Study of Influence of Configurations of the Windings on the Performance of Single Phase Induction Motor with Capacitor Start

The single phase induction motors needs two stator windings to produce rotating magnetic field : one main winding and the other auxiliary winding. The aim of the auxiliary winding is to create the rotating electromagnetic field when the machine is started-up and is afterwards turned off, generally through the centrifugal switch coupled together with the shaft of the machine rotor. The main purpose of this document is to evaluate the influence that the two windings have on the external characteristics of the single phase induction motor. For this purpose, two different kinds of windings were carried out and simulated, with the proposal to obtain some benefits. The main winding and the auxiliary winding were prepared and mounted on a prototype. The simulation was done via software based FEM, to make the extraction and results analysis possible. This results are shown at the end this document.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and simulation of severe slugging in air-water pipeline-riser systems

A mathematical model, numerical simulations and stability and flow regime maps corresponding to severe slugging in pipeline riser systems, are presented. In the simulations air and water were used as flowing fluids. The mathematical model considers continuity equations for liquid and gas phases, with a simplified momentum equation for the mixture, neglecting inertia. A drift-flux model, evaluated for the local conditions in the riser, is used as a closure law. The developed model predicts the location of the liquid accumulation front in the pipeline and the liquid level in the riser, so it is possible to determine which type of severe slugging occurs in the system. The numerical procedure is convergent for different nodalizations. A comparison is made with experimental results corresponding to a catenary riser, showing very good results for slugging cycle and stability and flow regime maps. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D CFD Simulation of Vortex-induced Vibration of Cylinder

The 3D flow around a circular cylinder free to oscillate transversely to the free stream was simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Spalart-Allmaras Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) turbulence model for a Reynolds number Re = 10(4). Simulations were carried out for a small mass-damping parameter m*zeta = 0.00858, where m* = 3.3 and zeta = 0.0026. We found good agreement between the numerical results and experimental data. The simulations predicted the high observed amplitudes of the upper branch of vortex-induced vibrations for low mass-damping parameters.

Safety of a railway wheelset - derailment simulation with increasing lateral force

The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.

Simulation of the Barkhausen Noise using random field Ising model with long-range interaction

We present a method to simulate the Magnetic Barkhausen Noise using the Random Field Ising Model with magnetic long-range interaction. The method allows calculating the magnetic flux density behavior in particular sections of the lattice reticule. The results show an internal demagnetizing effect that proceeds from the magnetic long-range interactions. This demagnetizing effect induces the appearing of a magnetic pattern in the region of magnetic avalanches. When compared with the traditional method, the proposed numerical procedure neatly reduces computational costs of simulation. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matrix Method for Acoustic Levitation Simulation

A matrix method is presented for simulating acoustic levitators. A typical acoustic levitator consists of an ultrasonic transducer and a reflector. The matrix method is used to determine the potential for acoustic radiation force that acts on a small sphere in the standing wave field produced by the levitator. The method is based on the Rayleigh integral and it takes into account the multiple reflections that occur between the transducer and the reflector. The potential for acoustic radiation force obtained by the matrix method is validated by comparing the matrix method results with those obtained by the finite element method when using an axisymmetric model of a single-axis acoustic levitator. After validation, the method is applied in the simulation of a noncontact manipulation system consisting of two 37.9-kHz Langevin-type transducers and a plane reflector. The manipulation system allows control of the horizontal position of a small levitated sphere from -6 mm to 6 mm, which is done by changing the phase difference between the two transducers. The horizontal position of the sphere predicted by the matrix method agrees with the horizontal positions measured experimentally with a charge-coupled device camera. The main advantage of the matrix method is that it allows simulation of non-symmetric acoustic levitators without requiring much computational effort.

Topology Optimized Design, Microfabrication and Characterization of Electro-Thermally Driven Microgripper

This article presents a systematic and logical study of the topology optimized design, microfabrication, and static/dynamic performance characterization of an electro-thermo-mechanical microgripper. The microgripper is designed using a topology optimization algorithm based on a spatial filtering technique and considering different penalization coefficients for different material properties during the optimization cycle. The microgripper design has a symmetric monolithic 2D structure which consists of a complex combination of rigid links integrating both the actuating and gripping mechanisms. The numerical simulation is performed by studying the effects of convective heat transfer, thermal boundary conditions at the fixed anchors, and microgripper performance considering temperature-dependent and independent material properties. The microgripper is fabricated from a 25 mm thick nickel foil using laser microfabrication technology and its static/dynamic performance is experimentally evaluated. The static and dynamic electro-mechanical characteristics are analyzed as step response functions with respect to tweezing/actuating displacements, applied current/power, and actual electric resistance. A microgripper prototype having overall dimensions of 1mm (L) X 2.5mm (W) is able to deliver the maximum tweezing and actuating displacements of 25.5 mm and 33.2 mm along X and Y axes, respectively, under an applied power of 2.32 W. Experimental performance is compared with finite element modeling simulation results.

Mechanical strength evaluation for Nd-YAG laser and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) joint under multiaxial loading

This work presents a comparison between laser weld (LBW) and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) processes used for assemblies of components in a body-in-white (BIW) at a world class automotive industry. It is carried out by evaluating the mechanical strength modeled both by experimental and numerical methods. An ""Arcan"" multiaxial test was designed and manufactured in order to enable 0 degrees, 45 degrees and 90 degrees directional loadings. The welded specimens were uncoated low carbon steel sheets (S-y = 170 MPa) used currently at the automotive industry, with two different thicknesses: 0.80 and 1.20 mm. A numerical analysis was carried out using the finite element method (FEM) through LS-DYNA code. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison between DC(+) and Square Wave AC SAW Current Outputs to Weld AISI 304 for Low-Temperature Applications

Welded equipment for cryogenic applications is utilized in chemical, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries. One material suitable for cryogenic application is austenitic stainless steel, which usually doesn`t present ductile/brittle transition temperature, except in the weld metal, where the presence of ferrite and micro inclusions can promote a brittle failure, either by ferrite cleavage or dimple nucleation and growth, respectively. A 25-mm- (1-in.-) thick AISI 304 stainless steel base metal was welded with the SAW process using a 308L solid wire and two kinds of fluxes and constant voltage power sources with two types of electrical outputs: direct current electrode positive and balanced square wave alternating current. The welded joints were analyzed by chemical composition, microstructure characterization, room temperature mechanical properties, and CVN impact test at -100 degrees C (-73 degrees F). Results showed that an increase of chromium and nickel content was observed in all weld beads compared to base metal. The chromium and nickel equivalents ratio for the weld beads were always higher for welding with square wave AC for the two types of fluxes than for direct current. The modification in the Cr(eq)/Ni(eq) ratio changes the delta ferrite morphology and, consequently, modifies the weld bead toughness at lower temperatures. The oxygen content can also affect the toughness in the weld bead. The highest absorbed energy in a CVN impact test was obtained for the welding condition with square wave AC electrical output and neutral flux, followed by DC(+) electrical output and neutral flux, and square wave AC electrical output and alloyed flux.

Thermomechanical processing for recovery of desired < 001 > fiber texture in electric motor steels

A processing route has been developed for recovering the desired lambda fiber in iron-silicon electrical steel needed for superior magnetic properties in electric motor application. The lambda fiber texture is available in directionally solidified iron-silicon steel with the < 001 > columnar grains but was lost after heavy rolling and recrystallization required for motor laminations. Two steps of light rolling each followed by recrystallization were found to largely restore the desired fiber texture. This strengthening of the < 001 > fiber texture had been predicted on the basis of the strain-induced boundary migration (SIBM) mechanism during recrystallization of lightly rolled steel from existing grains of near the ideal orientation, due to postulated low stored energies. Taylor and finite element models supported the idea of the low stored energy of the lambda fiber grains. The models also showed that the lambda fiber grains, though unstable during rolling, only rotated away from their initial orientations quite slowly.