Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on an intertidal meiobenthic community

In the near future, the marine environment is likely to be subjected to simultaneous increases in temperature and decreased pH. The potential effects of these changes on intertidal, meiofaunal assemblages were investigated using a mesocosm experiment. Artificial Substrate Units containing meiofauna from the extreme low intertidal zone were exposed for 60 days to eight experimental treatments (four replicates for each treatment) comprising four pH levels: 8.0 (ambient control), 7.7 & 7.3 (predicted changes associated with ocean acidification), and 6.7 (CO2 point-source leakage from geological storage), crossed with two temperatures: 12 °C (ambient control) and 16 °C (predicted). Community structure, measured using major meiofauna taxa was significantly affected by pH and temperature. Copepods and copepodites showed the greatest decline in abundance in response to low pH and elevated temperature. Nematodes increased in abundance in response to low pH and temperature rise, possibly caused by decreased predation and competition for food owing to the declining macrofauna density. Nematode species composition changed significantly between the different treatments, and was affected by both seawater acidification and warming. Estimated nematode species diversity, species evenness, and the maturity index, were substantially lower at 16 °C, whereas trophic diversity was slightly higher at 16 °C except at pH 6.7. This study has demonstrated that the combination of elevated levels of CO2 and ocean warming may have substantial effects on structural and functional characteristics of meiofaunal and nematode communities, and that single stressor experiments are unlikely to encompass the complexity of abiotic and biotic interactions. At the same time, ecological interactions may lead to complex community responses to pH and temperature changes in the interstitial environment

Valuation of ecological and amenity impacts of an offshore windfarm as a factor in marine planning

Integrated marine planning, which must take into consideration environmental and social impacts, is being introduced widely in Europe, the USA, Australia and elsewhere. Installation of offshore windfarms creates impacts both on local marine ecosystems and the view of the seascape and is one of multiple activities in the marine area that must be addressed by marine planning. The impacts on people's values (and hence welfare) of changes in ecology and amenity that could arise from the installation of a windfarm in the Irish Sea were assessed using a discrete choice experiment administered through an online survey. The ecological changes investigated were: increased species diversity resulting from artificial reef effects, and the effect of electromagnetic fields from subsea cables on marine life; whilst the amenity change was the visibility of offshore turbines from land. Respondents expressed preferences for ecological improvements but had less clear preferences regarding the height and visibility of the turbines. In particular distance decay effects were observed with respondents further away from the coast being less concerned about visual impact created by offshore turbines. Understanding ecological and amenity impacts and how they are valued by people can support the decisions made within marine planning and licensing.

Tillin, H. & Tyler-Walters, H., 2014. Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 2 Report – Literature review and sensitivity assessments for ecological groups for circalittoral and offshore Level 5 biotopes. JNCC Report No. 512B, 260 pp.

Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.

Range-edge effects promote clonal growth in peripheral populations of the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda

Existing in suboptimal conditions is a frequent occurrence for species inhabiting the cusp of their ecological range. In range-edge populations of plants, the scarcity of suitable habitat may be reflected in small population sizes which may result in increased self-pollination and/or inbreeding and an increase in the incidence of clonal reproduction. These factors may result in a decrease in levels of genetic diversity and a loss of potential adaptive variation that may compromise species' ability to cope with changes in their environment, an issue that is particularly relevant today with the current concern surrounding global climate change and its effect on species' distributional ranges. In the present study, we have compared the levels of clonal reproduction in the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda (L.) House in (1) populations from its main continuous distribution range, (2) populations occurring on the limits of the continuous range, and (3) peripheral populations outwith the species' continuous distribution range. Range-edge populations in Scotland and Sweden displayed significantly lower genotypic richness and diversity than those from the main area of the species' distribution in these countries. Populations from Ireland, which occur in the temperate zone rather than the boreal conditions that are the preferred habitat for the species, and which represent relict populations left over from cooler periods in the Earth's history, displayed no within-population genetic diversity, suggesting a complete lack of sexual reproduction. Furthermore, the genetic distinctiveness of the Irish populations, which contained alleles not found in either the Scottish or the Swedish populations, highlights the value of 'trailing edge' populations and supports the concept of 'parochial conservation', namely the conservation of species that are locally rare but globally common.

Quasiexperimental Study of the Effects of Antibiotic Use, Gastric Acid-Suppressive Agents, and Infection Control Practices on the Incidence of Clostridium difficile-Associated Diarrhea in Hospitalized Patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of antimicrobial drug use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices on the incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland. The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (time-series analysis) model was built to relate CDAD incidence with antibiotic use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices within the hospital over a 5-year period (February 2002 to March 2007). The findings of this study showed that temporal variation in CDAD incidence followed temporal variations in expanded-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.01/100 bed-days), broad-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.02/100 bed-days), fluoroquinolone use (average delay = 3 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.004/100 bed-days), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid use (average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days), and macrolide use (average delay = 5 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days). Temporal relationships were also observed between CDAD incidence and use of histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs; average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.001/100 bed-days). The model explained 78% of the variance in the monthly incidence of CDAD. The findings of this study highlight a temporal relationship between certain classes of antibiotics, H2RAs, and CDAD incidence. The results of this research can help hospitals to set priorities for restricting the use of specific antibiotic classes, based on the size-effect of each class and the delay necessary to observe an effect.

Landscape effects on extremely fragmented populations of a rare solitary bee, Colletes floralis

Globally there is concern over the decline of bees, an ecologically important group of pollinating insects. Genetic studies provide insights into population structure that are crucial for conservation management but that would be impossible to obtain by conventional ecological methods. Yet conservation genetic studies of bees have primarily focussed on social species rather than the more species-rich solitary bees. Here we investigate the population structure of Colletes floralis, a rare and threatened solitary mining bee, in Ireland and Scotland using nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was surprisingly as high in Scottish (Hebridean island) populations at the extreme northwestern edge of the species range as in mainland Irish populations further south. Extremely high genetic differentiation among populations was detected; multilocus FST was up to 0.53, and G’ST and Dest were even higher (maximum: 0.85 and 1.00 respectively). A pattern of isolation by distance was evident for sites separated by land. Water appears to act as a substantial barrier to gene flow yet sites separated by sea did not exhibit isolation by distance. Colletes floralis populations are extremely isolated and probably not in regional migration-drift equilibrium. GIS-based landscape genetic analysis reveals urban areas as a potential and substantial barrier to gene flow. Our results highlight the need for urgent site-specific management action to halt the decline of this and potentially other rare solitary bees.

Consistent patterns and the idiosyncratic effects of biodiversity in marine ecosystems

Revealing the consequences of species extinctions for ecosystem function has been a chief research goal(1-7) and has been accompanied by enthusiastic debate(8-11). Studies carried out predominantly in terrestrial grassland and soil ecosystems have demonstrated that as the number of species in assembled communities increases, so too do certain ecosystem processes, such as productivity, whereas others such as decomposition can remain unaffected(12). Diversity can influence aspects of ecosystem function, but questions remain as to how generic the patterns observed are, and whether they are the product of diversity, as such, or of the functional roles and traits that characterize species in ecological systems. Here we demonstrate variable diversity effects for species representative of marine coastal systems at both global and regional scales. We provide evidence for an increase in complementary resource use as diversity increases and show strong evidence for diversity effects in naturally assembled com-munities at a regional scale. The variability among individual species responses is consistent with a positive but idiosyncratic pattern of ecosystem function with increased diversity.

Functional responses of the intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus: effects of prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity.

The influence of predation in structuring ecological communities can be informed by examining the shape and magnitude of the functional response of predators towards prey. We derived functional responses of the ubiquitous intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus towards one of its preferred prey species, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, we examined the form of the functional response where prey were replaced following consumption, as compared to the usual experimental design where prey density in each replicate is allowed to deplete. E. marinus exhibited Type II functional responses, i.e. inversely density-dependent predation of J. nordmanni that increased linearly with prey availability at low densities, but decreased with further prey supply. In both prey replacement and non-replacement experiments, handling times and maximum feeding rates were similar. The non-replacement design underestimated attack rates compared to when prey were replaced. We then compared the use of Holling’s disc equation (assuming constant prey density) with the more appropriate Rogers’ random predator equation (accounting for prey depletion) using the prey non-replacement data. Rogers’ equation returned significantly greater attack rates but lower maximum feeding rates, indicating that model choice has significant implications for parameter estimates. We then manipulated habitat complexity and found significantly reduced predation by the amphipod in complex as opposed to simple habitat structure. Further, the functional response changed from a Type II in simple habitats to a sigmoidal, density-dependent Type III response in complex habitats, which may impart stability on the predator−prey interaction. Enhanced habitat complexity returned significantly lower attack rates, higher handling times and lower maximum feeding rates. These findings illustrate the sensitivity of the functional response to variations in prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity and, further, that E. marinus could potentially determine the local exclusion and persistence of prey through habitat-mediated changes in its predatory functional responses.

Environmental context determines multi-trophic effects of consumer species loss

Loss of biodiversity and nutrient enrichment are two of the main human impacts on ecosystems globally, yet we understand very little about the interactive effects of multiple stressors on natural communities and how this relates to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Advancing our understanding requires the following: (1) incorporation of processes occurring within and among trophic levels in natural ecosystems and (2) tests of context-dependency of species loss effects. We examined the effects of loss of a key predator and two groups of its prey on algal assemblages at both ambient and enriched nutrient conditions in a marine benthic system and tested for interactions between the loss of functional diversity and nutrient enrichment on ecosystem functioning. We found that enrichment interacted with food web structure to alter the effects of species loss in natural communities. At ambient conditions, the loss of primary consumers led to an increase in biomass of algae, whereas predator loss caused a reduction in algal biomass (i.e. a trophic cascade). However, contrary to expectations, we found that nutrient enrichment negated the cascading effect of predators on algae. Moreover, algal assemblage structure varied in distinct ways in response to mussel loss, grazer loss, predator loss and with nutrient enrichment, with compensatory shifts in algal abundance driven by variation in responses of different algal species to different environmental conditions and the presence of different consumers. We identified and characterized several context-dependent mechanisms driving direct and indirect effects of consumers. Our findings highlight the need to consider environmental context when examining potential species redundancies in particular with regard to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, non-trophic interactions based on empirical evidence must be incorporated into food web-based ecological models to improve understanding of community responses to global change.

On the dimensionality of ecological stability

Ecological stability is touted as a complex and multifaceted concept, including components such as variability, resistance, resilience, persistence and robustness. Even though a complete appreciation of the effects of perturbations on ecosystems requires the simultaneous measurement of these multiple components of stability, most ecological research has focused on one or a few of those components analysed in isolation. Here, we present a new view of ecological stability that recognises explicitly the non-independence of components of stability. This provides an approach for simplifying the concept of stability. We illustrate the concept and approach using results from a field experiment, and show that the effective dimensionality of ecological stability is considerably lower than if the various components of stability were unrelated. However, strong perturbations can modify, and even decouple, relationships among individual components of stability. Thus, perturbations not only increase the dimensionality of stability but they can also alter the relationships among components of stability in different ways. Studies that focus on single forms of stability in isolation therefore risk underestimating significantly the potential of perturbations to destabilise ecosystems. In contrast, application of the multidimensional stability framework that we propose gives a far richer understanding of how communities respond to perturbations.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change. © 2012 The Royal Society.

Parasites that change predator or prey behaviour can have keystone effects on community composition

Parasites play pivotal roles in structuring communities, often via indirect interactions with non-host species. These effects can be density-mediated (through mortality) or trait-mediated (behavioural, physiological and developmental), and may be crucial to population interactions, including biological invasions. For instance, parasitism can alter intraguild predation (IGP) between native and invasive crustaceans, reversing invasion outcomes. Here, we use mathematical models to examine how parasite-induced trait changes influence the population dynamics of hosts that interact via IGP. We show that trait-mediated indirect interactions impart keystone effects, promoting or inhibiting host coexistence. Parasites can thus have strong ecological impacts, even if they have negligible virulence, underscoring the need to consider trait-mediated effects when predicting effects of parasites on community structure in general and biological invasions in particular.

Predicting the ecological impacts of a new freshwater invader:Functional responses and prey selectivity of the 'killer shrimp', Dikerogammarus villosus, compared to the native Gammarus pulex

The ability to predict the likely ecological impacts of invasive species in fresh waters is a pressing research requirement. Whilst comparisons of species traits and considerations of invasion history have some efficacy in this respect, we require robust methods that can compare the effects of native and invasive species. Here, we utilise comparative functional responses and prey selectivity experiments to understand and predict the ecological impact of an invader as compared to a native. We compared the predatory functional responses of an emerging invasive species in Europe, the 'killer shrimp', Dikerogammarus villosus, and an analogous native species, Gammarus pulex, towards three representative prey species: Asellus aquaticus, Daphnia magna and Chironomus sp. Furthermore, as ecological impact may be greater for invasive species with more indiscriminate feeding habits, we compared the selectivity for the three prey types between the invasive and native species. In both the presence and absence of experimental habitats, large D. villosus, and those matched for body size with G. pulex, generally showed higher (Type II) functional responses than G. pulex, with the invasive species exhibiting higher maximum feeding rates. Further, D. villosus exhibited significantly more indiscriminate prey selection compared with G. pulex, a trait that became more evident as the invader increased in size. Differences in functional responses and prey selectivity were prey species specific, with higher to lower predicted impacts in the order A. aquaticus, D. magna and Chironomus sp. This is in accord with the impact of this invasive species on macroinvertebrates in the field. We thus provide understanding of the known ecological impact of D. villosus and discuss the utility of the phenomenological use of comparative functional responses and resource use as a tool through which the potential ecological impacts of invasive species may be identified. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological Impacts of Alien Species: Quantification, Scope, Caveats, and Recommendations

Despite intensive research during the past decade on the effects of alien species, invasion science still lacks the capacity to accurately predict the impacts of those species and, therefore, to provide timely advice to managers on where limited resources should be allocated. This capacity has been limited partly by the context-dependent nature of ecological impacts, research highly skewed toward certain taxa and habitat types, and the lack of standardized methods for detecting and quantifying impacts. We review different strategies, including specific experimental and observational approaches, for detecting and quantifying the ecological impacts of alien species. These include a four-way experimental plot design for comparing impact studies of different organisms. Furthermore, we identify hypothesis-driven parameters that should be measured at invaded sites to maximize insights into the nature of the impact. We also present strategies for recognizing high-impact species. Our recommendations provide a foundation for developing systematic quantitative measurements to allow comparisons of impacts across alien species, sites, and time.