Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Approximate solutions to stochastic dynamic programs

This paper examines the properties of various approximation methods for solving stochastic dynamic programs in structural estimation problems. The problem addressed is evaluating the expected value of the maximum of available choices. The paper shows that approximating this by the maximum of expected values frequently has poor properties. It also shows that choosing a convenient distributional assumptions for the errors and then solving exactly conditional on the distributional assumption leads to small approximation errors even if the distribution is misspecified. © 1997 Cambridge University Press.

A dynamic Web agent for verifying the security and integrity of a Web site's contents

To harness safe operation of Web-based systems in Web environments, we propose an SSPA (Server-based SHA-1 Page-digest Algorithm) to verify the integrity of Web contents before the server issues an HTTP response to a user request. In addition to standard security measures, our Java implementation of the SSPA, which is called the Dynamic Security Surveillance Agent (DSSA), provides further security in terms of content integrity to Web-based systems. Its function is to prevent the display of Web contents that have been altered through the malicious acts of attackers and intruders on client machines. This is to protect the reputation of organisations from cyber-attacks and to ensure the safe operation of Web systems by dynamically monitoring the integrity of a Web site's content on demand. We discuss our findings in terms of the applicability and practicality of the proposed system. We also discuss its time metrics, specifically in relation to its computational overhead at the Web server, as well as the overall latency from the clients' point of view, using different Internet access methods. The SSPA, our DSSA implementation, some experimental results and related work are all discussed

Improvement of a dynamic accumulator at ICICS 07 and its application in multi-user keyword-based retrieval on encrypted data

A dynamic accumulator is an algorithm, which merges a large set of elements into a constant-size value such that for an element accumulated, there is a witness confirming that the element was included into the value, with a property that accumulated elements can be dynamically added and deleted into/from the original set. Recently Wang et al. presented a dynamic accumulator for batch updates at ICICS 2007. However, their construction suffers from two serious problems. We analyze them and propose a way to repair their scheme. We use the accumulator to construct a new scheme for common secure indices with conjunctive keyword-based retrieval.

Dynamic self-organization phenomena in complex ionized gas systems : new paradigms and technological aspects

An overview of dynamic self-organization phenomena in complex ionized gas systems, associated physical phenomena, and industrial applications is presented. The most recent experimental, theoretical, and modeling efforts to understand the growth mechanisms and dynamics of nano- and micron-sized particles, as well as the unique properties of the plasma-particle systems (colloidal, or complex plasmas) and the associated physical phenomena are reviewed and the major technological applications of micro- and nanoparticles are discussed. Until recently, such particles were considered mostly as a potential hazard for the microelectronic manufacturing and significant efforts were applied to remove them from the processing volume or suppress the gas-phase coagulation. Nowadays, fine clusters and particulates find numerous challenging applications in fundamental science as well as in nanotechnology and other leading high-tech industries.

Keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data and extension for dynamic groups

We consider the following problem: a user stores encrypted documents on an untrusted server, and wishes to retrieve all documents containing some keywords without any loss of data confidentiality. Conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data have been studied by numerous researchers over the past few years, and all existing schemes use keyword fields as compulsory information. This however is impractical for many applications. In this paper, we propose a scheme of keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data, which affirmatively answers an open problem asked by Golle et al. at ACNS 2004. Furthermore, the proposed scheme is extended to the dynamic group setting. Security analysis of our constructions is given in the paper.

Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.

Detection of dynamic primary user with cooperative spectrum sensing

In this paper we demonstrate that existing cooperative spectrum sensing formulated for static primary users cannot accurately detect dynamic primary users regardless of the information fusion method. Performance error occurs as the sensing parameters calculated by the conventional detector result in sensing performance that violates the sensing requirements. Furthermore, the error is accumulated and compounded by the number of cooperating nodes. To address this limitation, we design and implement the duty cycle detection model for the context of cooperative spectrum sensing to accurately calculate the sensing parameters that satisfy the sensing requirements. We show that longer sensing duration is required to compensate for dynamic primary user traffic.

A gray-box neural network-based model identification and fault estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamic systems

A novel gray-box neural network model (GBNNM), including multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network (NN) and integrators, is proposed for a model identification and fault estimation (MIFE) scheme. With the GBNNM, both the nonlinearity and dynamics of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems can be approximated. Unlike previous NN-based model identification methods, the GBNNM directly inherits system dynamics and separately models system nonlinearities. This model corresponds well with the object system and is easy to build. The GBNNM is embedded online as a normal model reference to obtain the quantitative residual between the object system output and the GBNNM output. This residual can accurately indicate the fault offset value, so it is suitable for differing fault severities. To further estimate the fault parameters (FPs), an improved extended state observer (ESO) using the same NNs (IESONN) from the GBNNM is proposed to avoid requiring the knowledge of ESO nonlinearity. Then, the proposed MIFE scheme is applied for reaction wheels (RW) in a satellite attitude control system (SACS). The scheme using the GBNNM is compared with other NNs in the same fault scenario, and several partial loss of effect (LOE) faults with different severities are considered to validate the effectiveness of the FP estimation and its superiority.

Utilizing voting systems for ranking user tweets

Twitter is a very popular social network website that allows users to publish short posts called tweets. Users in Twitter can follow other users, called followees. A user can see the posts of his followees on his Twitter profile home page. An information overload problem arose, with the increase of the number of followees, related to the number of tweets available in the user page. Twitter, similar to other social network websites, attempts to elevate the tweets the user is expected to be interested in to increase overall user engagement. However, Twitter still uses the chronological order to rank the tweets. The tweets ranking problem was addressed in many current researches. A sub-problem of this problem is to rank the tweets for a single followee. In this paper we represent the tweets using several features and then we propose to use a weighted version of the famous voting system Borda-Count (BC) to combine several ranked lists into one. A gradient descent method and collaborative filtering method are employed to learn the optimal weights. We also employ the Baldwin voting system for blending features (or predictors). Finally we use the greedy feature selection algorithm to select the best combination of features to ensure the best results.

Emotion recognition of static and dynamic faces in autism spectrum disorder

There is substantial evidence for facial emotion recognition (FER) deficits in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The extent of this impairment, however, remains unclear, and there is some suggestion that clinical groups might benefit from the use of dynamic rather than static images. High-functioning individuals with ASD (n = 36) and typically developing controls (n = 36) completed a computerised FER task involving static and dynamic expressions of the six basic emotions. The ASD group showed poorer overall performance in identifying anger and disgust and were disadvantaged by dynamic (relative to static) stimuli when presented with sad expressions. Among both groups, however, dynamic stimuli appeared to improve recognition of anger. This research provides further evidence of specific impairment in the recognition of negative emotions in ASD, but argues against any broad advantages associated with the use of dynamic displays.

Brain networks subserving the evaluation of static and dynamic facial expressions

Because moving depictions of face emotion have greater ecological validity than their static counterparts, it has been suggested that still photographs may not engage ‘authentic’ mechanisms used to recognize facial expressions in everyday life. To date, however, no neuroimaging studies have adequately addressed the question of whether the processing of static and dynamic expressions rely upon different brain substrates. To address this, we performed an functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment wherein participants made emotional expression discrimination and Sex discrimination judgements to static and moving face images. Compared to Sex discrimination, Emotion discrimination was associated with widespread increased activation in regions of occipito-temporal, parietal and frontal cortex. These regions were activated both by moving and by static emotional stimuli, indicating a general role in the interpretation of emotion. However, portions of the inferior frontal gyri and supplementary/pre-supplementary motor area showed task by motion interaction. These regions were most active during emotion judgements to static faces. Our results demonstrate a common neural substrate for recognizing static and moving facial expressions, but suggest a role for the inferior frontal gyrus in supporting simulation processes that are invoked more strongly to disambiguate static emotional cues.