Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

Characterisation of Bioresorbable Composite Performance for Validation of New On-Line Process Monitoring Technology

There is an increasing interest in the biomedical field to create implantable medical devices to provide a temporary mechanical function for use inside the human body. In many of these applications bioresorbable polymer composites using PLLA with β-TCP , are increasingly being used due to their biocompatability, biodegradability and mechanical strength.1,3 These medical devices can be manufactured using conventional plastics processing methods such as injection moulding and extrusion, however there is great need to understand and control the process due to a lack of knowledge on the influence of processing on material properties. With the addition of biocompatible additives there is also a requirement to be able to predict the quality and level of dispersion within the polymer matrix. On-line UV-Vis spectroscopy has been shown to monitor the quality of fillers in polymers. This can eliminate time consuming and costly post-process evaluation of additive dispersion. The aim of this work was to identify process and performance relationships of PLLA/β-TCP composites with respect to melt-extrusion conditions. This is part of a wider study into on-line process monitoring of bioresorbable polymers as used in the medical industry.
These results show that final properties of the PLLA/ β-TCP composite are highly influenced by the particle size and loading. UV-Vis spectroscopy can be used on-line to monitor the final product and this can be utilised as a valuable tool for quality control in an application where consistent performance is of paramount importance.

3D FEM simulation of helical milling hole process for titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V

As an emerging hole-machining methodology, helical milling process has become increasingly popular in aeromaterials manufacturing research, especially in areas of aircraft structural parts, dies, and molds manufacturing. Helical milling process is highly demanding due to its complex tool geometry and the progressive material failure on the workpiece. This paper outlines the development of a 3D finite element model for helical milling hole of titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V using commercial FE code ABAQUS/Explicit. The proposed model simulates the helical milling hole process by taking into account the damage initiation and evolution in the workpiece material. A contact model at the interface between end-mill bit and workpiece has been established and the process parameters specified. Furthermore, a simulation procedure is proposed to simulate different cutting processes with the same failure parameters. With this finite element model, a series of FEAs for machined titanium alloy have been carried out and results compared with laboratory experimental data. The effects of machining parameters on helical milling have been elucidated, and the capability and advantage of FE simulation on helical milling process have been well presented.

Reliable survival analysis based on the Dirichlet Process

We present a robust Dirichlet process for estimating survival functions from samples with right-censored data. It adopts a prior near-ignorance approach to avoid almost any assumption about the distribution of the population lifetimes, as well as the need of eliciting an infinite dimensional parameter (in case of lack of prior information), as it happens with the usual Dirichlet process prior. We show how such model can be used to derive robust inferences from right-censored lifetime data. Robustness is due to the identification of the decisions that are prior-dependent, and can be interpreted as an analysis of sensitivity with respect to the hypothetical inclusion of fictitious new samples in the data. In particular, we derive a nonparametric estimator of the survival probability and a hypothesis test about the probability that the lifetime of an individual from one population is shorter than the lifetime of an individual from another. We evaluate these ideas on simulated data and on the Australian AIDS survival dataset. The methods are publicly available through an easy-to-use R package.

Interactive management control via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). An empirical study in a public university hospital

Management control in public university hospitals is a challenging task because of continuous changes due to external pressures (e.g. economic pressures, stakeholder focuses and scientific progress) and internal complexities (top management turnover, shared leadership, technological evolution, and researcher oriented mission). Interactive budgeting contributed to improving vertical and horizontal communication between hospital and stakeholders and between different organizational levels. This paper describes an application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to enhance interactive budgeting in one of the biggest public university hospital in Italy. AHP improved budget allocation facilitating elicitation and formalization of units' needs. Furthermore, AHP facilitated vertical communication among manager and stakeholders, as it allowed multilevel hierarchical representation of hospital needs, and horizontal communication among staff of the same hospital, as it allowed units' need prioritization and standardization, with a scientific multi-criteria approach, without using complex mathematics. Finally, AHP allowed traceability of a complex decision making processes (as budget allocation), this aspect being of paramount importance in public sectors, where managers are called to respond to many different stakeholders about their choices.

Potential biomarkers on gametogenesis process and in sperm quality of european EEL (Anguilla anguilla)

Dissertação de mestrado, Aquacultura, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Efficiency in the Enrollment Process for the South Carolina Intellectual Disability and Related Disabilities Waiver Program

The Intellectual Disability and Related Disabilities waiver has had many changes over the years and has evolved into a robust service package that can be a significant help to individuals who wish to remain in the community or at home but would otherwise require institutional level care. Due to the limited amount of funds, it was necessary to create a waiting list for individuals who wish to participate in the ID/RD Waiver program. This project was undertaken to assess if there were practical steps that could be taken to assist in reducing the time and cost involved in the ID/RD Waiver enrollment process.

A complex protocol layer as a linux user-space process

With the current complexity of communication protocols, implementing its layers totally in the kernel of the operating system is too cumbersome, and it does not allow use of the capabilities only available in user space processes. However, building protocols as user space processes must not impair the responsiveness of the communication. Therefore, in this paper we present a layer of a communication protocol, which, due to its complexity, was implemented in a user space process. Lower layers of the protocol are, for responsiveness issues, implemented in the kernel. This protocol was developed to support large-scale power-line communication (PLC) with timing requirements.

Optimization process of polyester polymer mortars modified with recycled GFRP waste aggregates – application of factorial experiment design-

Glass fibre-reinforced plastics (GFRP), nowadays commonly used in the construction, transportation and automobile sectors, have been considered inherently difficult to recycle due to both: cross-linked nature of thermoset resins, which cannot be remolded, and complex composition of the composite itself, which includes glass fibres, matrix and different types of inorganic fillers. Presently, most of the GFRP waste is landfilled leading to negative environmental impacts and supplementary added costs. With an increasing awareness of environmental matters and the subsequent desire to save resources, recycling would convert an expensive waste disposal into a profitable reusable material. There are several methods to recycle GFR thermostable materials: (a) incineration, with partial energy recovery due to the heat generated during organic part combustion; (b) thermal and/or chemical recycling, such as solvolysis, pyrolisis and similar thermal decomposition processes, with glass fibre recovering; and (c) mechanical recycling or size reduction, in which the material is subjected to a milling process in order to obtain a specific grain size that makes the material suitable as reinforcement in new formulations. This last method has important advantages over the previous ones: there is no atmospheric pollution by gas emission, a much simpler equipment is required as compared with ovens necessary for thermal recycling processes, and does not require the use of chemical solvents with subsequent environmental impacts. In this study the effect of incorporation of recycled GFRP waste materials, obtained by means of milling processes, on mechanical behavior of polyester polymer mortars was assessed. For this purpose, different contents of recycled GFRP waste materials, with distinct size gradings, were incorporated into polyester polymer mortars as sand aggregates and filler replacements. The effect of GFRP waste treatment with silane coupling agent was also assessed. Design of experiments and data treatment were accomplish by means of factorial design and analysis of variance ANOVA. The use of factorial experiment design, instead of the one factor at-a-time method is efficient at allowing the evaluation of the effects and possible interactions of the different material factors involved. Experimental results were promising toward the recyclability of GFRP waste materials as polymer mortar aggregates, without significant loss of mechanical properties with regard to non-modified polymer mortars.

Innovative manufacturing process for hybrid pultruded products based on cork and polymeric pre-shapes

Pultruded products are being targeted by a growing demand due to its excellent mechanical properties and low chemical reactivity, ensuring a low level of maintenance operations and allowing an easier assembly operation process than equivalent steel bars. In order to improve the mechanical drawing process and solve some acoustic and thermal insulation problems, pultruded pipes of glass fibre reinforced plastics (GFRF) can be filled with special products that increase their performance regarding the issues previously referred. The great challenge of this work was drawing a new equipment able to produce pultruded pipes filled with cork or polymeric pre-shaped bars as a continuous process. The project was carried out successfully and the new equipment was built and integrated in the pultrusion equipment already existing, allowing to obtain news products with higher added-value in the market, covering some needs previously identified in the field of civil construction.

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

The internationalization process of mychild to São Paulo, Brazil

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Sustainable urban planning: parameters to the operational process

In modern society, energy consumption and respect for the environment have become essential aspects of urban planning. The rising demand for alternative sources of energy, coupled with the decline in the construction sector and material usage, gives the idea that the thinking on modern cities, where attention is given to reduced energy consumption, savings, waste recycling and respect for the surrounding environment, is being put into practice. If we examine development of the city over recent centuries, by means of the theories of the most famous and influential urban planners, it is possible to identify the major problems caused by this type of planning. For this reason, in recent urban planning the use of systems of indicators that evaluate and certify land environmentally and energetically guides the master plan toward a more efficient city model. In addition the indicators are targeted on key factors determined by the commissioner or the opportunities the territory itself provides. Due the complexity of the environmental mechanics, the process of design and urban planning has become a challenging issue. The introduction of the indicators system has made it possible to register the life of the process, with a spiral route that allows the design itself to be refined. The aim of this study, built around the creation of a system of urban sustainability indicators that will evaluate highly eco-friendly cities, is to develop a certification system for cities or portions of them. The system will be upgradeable and objective, will employ real data and will be concerned with energy production and consumption.

Customer service process optimization at Sonae e MC

Sonae MC is constantly innovating and keeping up with the new market trends, being increasingly focused on E-commerce due to its growing importance. In that area, a telephone line is available to support customers with their problems. However, rare were the cases in which those problems were solved in the first contact. Therefore, the goal of this work was to reengineer these processes to improve the service performance and consequently the customer’s satisfaction. Following an evolutionary approach, improvement opportunities were suggested and if correctly implemented the cases resolution time could decrease 1 day and Sonae MC will save €7.750 per month.