Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Decreasing mortality and changing patterns of causes of death in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among HIV-infected persons is decreasing, and causes of death are changing. Classification of deaths is hampered because of low autopsy rates, frequent deaths outside of hospitals, and shortcomings of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) coding. METHODS: We studied mortality among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants (1988-2010) and causes of death using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol (2005-2009). Furthermore, we linked the SHCS data to the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) cause of death registry. RESULTS: AIDS-related mortality peaked in 1992 [11.0/100 person-years (PY)] and decreased to 0.144/100 PY (2006); non-AIDS-related mortality ranged between 1.74 (1993) and 0.776/100 PY (2006); mortality of unknown cause ranged between 2.33 and 0.206/100 PY. From 2005 to 2009, 459 of 9053 participants (5.1%) died. Underlying causes of deaths were: non-AIDS malignancies [total, 85 (19%) of 446 deceased persons with known hepatitis C virus (HCV) status; HCV-negative persons, 59 (24%); HCV-coinfected persons, 26 (13%)]; AIDS [73 (16%); 50 (21%); 23 (11%)]; liver failure [67 (15%); 12 (5%); 55 (27%)]; non-AIDS infections [42 (9%); 13 (5%); 29 (14%)]; substance use [31 (7%); 9 (4%); 22 (11%)]; suicide [28 (6%); 17 (7%), 11 (6%)]; myocardial infarction [28 (6%); 24 (10%), 4 (2%)]. Characteristics of deceased persons differed in 2005 vs. 2009: median age (45 vs. 49 years, respectively); median CD4 count (257 vs. 321 cells/μL, respectively); the percentage of individuals who were antiretroviral therapy-naïve (13 vs. 5%, respectively); the percentage of deaths that were AIDS-related (23 vs. 9%, respectively); and the percentage of deaths from non-AIDS-related malignancies (13 vs. 24%, respectively). Concordance in the classification of deaths was 72% between CoDe and ICD-10 coding in the SHCS; and 60% between the SHCS and the SNC registry. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HIV-positive persons decreased to 1.33/100 PY in 2010. Hepatitis B or C virus coinfections increased the risk of death. Between 2005 and 2009, 84% of deaths were non-AIDS-related. Causes of deaths varied according to data source and coding system.

Fluid flow and dispersion predictions in porous media by utilizing advanced numerical methods

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tarkastella numeerisen virtauslaskennan avulla virtaukseen liittyviä ilmiöitä ja kaasun dispersiota. Diplomityön sisältö on jaettu viiteen osaan; johdantoon, teoriaan, katsaukseen virtauksen mallinnukseen huokoisessa materiaalissa liittyviin tutkimusselvityksiin, numeeriseen mallinnukseen sekä tulosten esittämiseen ja johtopäätöksiin. Diplomityön alussa kiinnitettiin huomiota erilaisiin kokeellisiin, numeerisiin ja teoreettisiin mallinnusmenetelmiin, joilla voidaan mallintaa virtausta huokoisessa materiaalissa. Kirjallisuusosassa tehtiin katsaus aikaisemmin julkaistuihin puoliempiirisiin ja empiirisiin tutkimusselvityksiin, jotka liittyvät huokoisen materiaalin aiheuttamaan painehäviöön. Numeerisessa virtauslaskenta osassa rakennettiin ja esitettiin huokoista materiaalia kuvaavat numeeriset mallit käyttäen kaupallista FLUENT -ohjelmistoa. Työn lopussa arvioitiin teorian, numeerisen virtauslaskennan ja kokeellisten tutkimusselvitysten tuloksia. Kolmiulotteisen huokoisen materiaalinnumeerisessa mallinnuksesta saadut tulokset vaikuttivat lupaavilta. Näiden tulosten perusteella tehtiin suosituksia ajatellen tulevaa virtauksen mallinnusta huokoisessa materiaalissa. Osa tässä diplomityössä esitetyistä tuloksista tullaan esittämään 55. Kanadan Kemiantekniikan konferenssissa Torontossa 1619 Lokakuussa 2005. ASME :n kansainvälisessä tekniikan alan julkaisussa. Työ on hyväksytty esitettäväksi esitettäväksi laskennallisen virtausmekaniikan (CFD) aihealueessa 'Peruskäsitteet'. Lisäksi työn yksityiskohtaiset tulokset tullaan lähettämään myös CES:n julkaisuun.

Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970-2010, NE Spain)

We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula), a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970-2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Decreasing Proportion of Recent Infections among Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Cases in Switzerland, 2008 to 2013 Based on Line-Immunoassay-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance requires monitoring of new HIV diagnoses and differentiation of incident and older infections. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a system for monitoring incident HIV infections based on the results of a line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) mandatorily conducted for HIV confirmation and type differentiation (HIV-1, HIV-2) of all newly diagnosed patients. Based on this system, we assessed the proportion of incident HIV infection among newly diagnosed cases in Switzerland during 2008-2013. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inno-Lia antibody reaction patterns recorded in anonymous HIV notifications to the federal health authority were classified by 10 published algorithms into incident (up to 12 months) or older infections. Utilizing these data, annual incident infection estimates were obtained in two ways, (i) based on the diagnostic performance of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident', (ii) based on the window-periods of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration'. From 2008-2013, 3'851 HIV notifications were received. Adult HIV-1 infections amounted to 3'809 cases, and 3'636 of them (95.5%) contained Inno-Lia data. Incident infection totals calculated were similar for the performance- and window-based methods, amounting on average to 1'755 (95% confidence interval, 1588-1923) and 1'790 cases (95% CI, 1679-1900), respectively. More than half of these were among men who had sex with men. Both methods showed a continuous decline of annual incident infections 2008-2013, totaling -59.5% and -50.2%, respectively. The decline of incident infections continued even in 2012, when a 15% increase in HIV notifications had been observed. This increase was entirely due to older infections. Overall declines 2008-2013 were of similar extent among the major transmission groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inno-Lia based incident HIV-1 infection surveillance proved useful and reliable. It represents a free, additional public health benefit of the use of this relatively costly test for HIV confirmation and type differentiation.

Decreasing educational differences in mortality over 40 years: evidence from the Turin Longitudinal Study (Italy)

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that inequalities in premature mortality have continued to rise over the last decade in most European countries, but not in southern European countries. METHODS: In this study, we assess long-term trends (1971-2011) in absolute and relative educational inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the Turin Longitudinal Study (Turin, Italy), a record-linkage study including all individuals resident in Turin in the 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses, and aged 30-99 years (more than 2 million people). We examined mortality for all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), all cancers and specific cancers (lung, breast), as well as smoking and alcohol-related mortality. RESULTS: Overall mortality substantially decreased in all educational groups over the study period, although cancer rates only slightly declined. Absolute inequalities decreased for both genders (SII=962/694 in men/women in 1972-1976 and SII=531/259 in 2007-2011, p<0.01). Among men, absolute inequalities for CVD and alcohol-related causes declined (p<0.05), while remaining stable for other causes of death. Among women, declines in absolute inequalities were observed for CVD, smoking and alcohol-related causes and lung cancer (p<0.05). Relative inequalities in all-cause mortality remained stable for men and decreased for women (RII=1.92/2.03 in men/women in 1972-1976 and RII=2.15/1.32 in 2007-2011). Among men, relative inequalities increased for smoking-related causes, while among women they decreased for all cancers, CVD, smoking-related causes and lung cancer (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Absolute inequalities in mortality strongly declined over the study period in both genders. Relative educational inequalities in mortality were generally stable among men; while they tended to narrow among women. In general, this study supports the hypothesis that educational inequalities in mortality have decreased in southern European countries.

Networks of noisy oscillators with correlated degree and frequency dispersion

We investigate how correlations between the diversity of the connectivity of networks and the dynamics at their nodes affect the macroscopic behavior. In particular, we study the synchronization transition of coupled stochastic phase oscillators that represent the node dynamics. Crucially in our work, the variability in the number of connections of the nodes is correlated with the width of the frequency distribution of the oscillators. By numerical simulations on Erdös-Rényi networks, where the frequencies of the oscillators are Gaussian distributed, we make the counterintuitive observation that an increase in the strength of the correlation is accompanied by an increase in the critical coupling strength for the onset of synchronization. We further observe that the critical coupling can solely depend on the average number of connections or even completely lose its dependence on the network connectivity. Only beyond this state, a weighted mean-field approximation breaks down. If noise is present, the correlations have to be stronger to yield similar observations.

Accelerated Microstructure Imaging via Convex Optimization (AMICO) in crossing fibers

Mapping the microstructure properties of the local tissues in the brain is crucial to understand any pathological condition from a biological perspective. Most of the existing techniques to estimate the microstructure of the white matter assume a single axon orientation whereas numerous regions of the brain actually present a fiber-crossing configuration. The purpose of the present study is to extend a recent convex optimization framework to recover microstructure parameters in regions with multiple fibers.

Agglomeration vs. dispersion of economic activities in the districts of Paris

The spatial distribution of economic activity has often been analysed for wide geographical areas such as regions or metropolitan areas, but it has rarely been subject to microanalysis, especially outside the U.S. In this paper we focus on what happens within a large European city (Par is), and analyse how the industrial composition of its districts differs and how these districts evolve. We also analyse suburbanization process for both residents and the workforce and provide empirical evidence about the changing roles of the core and intramuros periphery. Keywords: agglomeration, suburbanization, Paris, micropolitan analysis

High-Performance-Tensile-Strength Alpha-Grass Reinforced Starch-Based Fully Biodegradable Composites

Though there has been a great deal of work concerning the development of natural fibers in reinforced starch-based composites, there is still more to be done. In general, cellulose fibers have lower strength than glass fibers; however, their specific strength is not far from that of fiberglass. In this work, alpha-fibers were obtained from alpha-grass through a mild cooking process. The fibers were used to reinforce a starch-based biopolymer. Composites including 5 to 35% (w/w) alpha-grass fibers in their formulation were prepared, tested, and subsequently compared with those of wood- and fiberglass-reinforced polypropylene (PP). The term “high-performance” refers to the tensile strength of the studied composites and is mainly due to a good interphase, a good dispersion of the fibers inside the matrix, and a good aspect ratio. The tensile strength of the composites showed a linear evolution for fiber contents up to 35% (w/w). The strain at break of the composites decreased with the fiber content and showed the stiffening effects of the reinforcement. The prepared composites showed high mechanical properties, even approaching those of glass fiber reinforced composites

Analysis of the tensile modulus of polypropylene composites reinforced with stone groundwood fibers

One of the most relevant properties of composite materials to be considered is stiffness. Fiberglass has been used traditionally as a fibrous reinforcing element when stiff materials are required. However, natural fibers are been exploited as replacements for synthetic fibers to satisfy environmental concerns. Among the different natural fibers, wood fibers show the combination of relatively high aspect ratio, good specific stiffness and strength, low density, low cost, and less variability than other natural fibers of such those from annual crops. In this work, composites from polypropylene and stone groundwood fibers from softwood were prepared and mechanically characterized under tensile loads. The Young’s moduli of the ensuing composites were analyzed and their micromechanics aspects evaluated. The reinforcing effect of stone groundwood fibers was compared to that of conventional reinforcement such fiberglass. The Halpin-Tsai model with the modification proposed by Tsai-Pagano accounted fairly for the behavior of PP composites reinforced with stone groundwood fibers. It was also demonstrated that the aspect ratio of the reinforcement plays a role in the Young’s modulus of injection molded specimens