Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.

The competition–performance relation: a meta-analytic review and test of the opposing processes model of competition and performance

What is the relation between competition and performance? The present research addresses this important multidisciplinary question by conducting a meta-analysis of existing empirical work and by proposing a new conceptual model—the opposing processes model of competition and performance. This model was tested by conducting an additional meta-analysis and 3 new empirical studies. The first meta-analysis revealed that there is no noteworthy relation between competition and performance. The second meta-analysis showed, in accord with the opposing processes model, that the absence of a direct effect is the result of inconsistent mediation via achievement goals: Competition prompts performance-approach goals which, in turn, facilitate performance; and competition also prompts performance-avoidance goals which, in turn, undermine performance. These same direct and mediational findings were also observed in the 3 new empirical studies (using 3 different conceptualizations of competition and attending to numerous control variables). Our findings provide both interpretational clarity regarding past research and conceptual guidance regarding future research on the competition–performance relation.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain.

The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine and tyrosine uptake by the mammary gland of lactating dairy cows

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine and tyrosine uptake by the mammary gland of the lactating dairy cow is constructed and solved in the steady state. The model contains four intracellular and four extracellular pools and conservation of mass principles are applied to generate the fundamental equations describing the behaviour of the system. The experimental measurements required for model solution are milk secretion and plasma flow rate across the gland in combination with phenylalanine and tyrosine concentrations and plateau isotopic enrichments in arterial and venous plasma and free and protein bound milk during a constant infusion of [1-(13)C]phenylalanine and [2,3,5,6-(2)H]tyrosine tracer. If assumptions are made, model solution enables determination of steady state flows for phenylalanine and tyrosine inflow to the gland, outflow from it and bypass, and flows representing the synthesis and degradation of constitutive protein and hydroxylation. The model is effective in providing information about the fates of phenylalanine and tyrosine in the mammary gland and could be used as part of a more complex system describing amino acid metabolism in the whole ruminant.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Optical Characterization and Optimization of Display Components : Some Applications to Liquid-Crystal-Based and Electrochromics-Based Devices

This dissertation is focused on theoretical and experimental studies of optical properties of materials and multilayer structures composing liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and electrochromic (EC) devices. By applying spectroscopic ellipsometry, we have determined the optical constants of thin films of electrochromic tungsten oxide (WOx) and nickel oxide (NiOy), the films’ thickness and roughness. These films, which were obtained at spattering conditions possess high transmittance that is important for achieving good visibility and high contrast in an EC device. Another application of the general spectroscopic ellipsometry relates to the study of a photo-alignment layer of a mixture of azo-dyes SD-1 and SDA-2. We have found the optical constants of this mixture before and after illuminating it by polarized UV light. The results obtained confirm the diffusion model to explain the formation of the photo-induced order in azo-dye films. We have developed new techniques for fast characterization of twisted nematic LC cells in transmissive and reflective modes. Our techniques are based on the characteristics functions that we have introduced for determination of parameters of non-uniform birefringent media. These characteristic functions are found by simple procedures and can be utilised for simultaneous determination of retardation, its wavelength dispersion, and twist angle, as well as for solving associated optimization problems. Cholesteric LCD that possesses some unique properties, such as bistability and good selective scattering, however, has a disadvantage – relatively high driving voltage (tens of volts). The way we propose to reduce the driving voltage consists of applying a stack of thin (~1µm) LC layers. We have studied the ability of a layer of a surface stabilized ferroelectric liquid crystal coupled with several retardation plates for birefringent color generation. We have demonstrated that in order to accomplish good color characteristics and high brightness of the display, one or two retardation plates are sufficient.

Radiation properties of coil-coated steel in building envelope surfaces and the influence on building thermal performance

Recent studies have shown that the optical properties of building exterior surfaces are important in terms of energy use and thermal comfort. While the majority of the studies are related to exterior surfaces, the radiation properties of interior surfaces are less thoroughly investigated. Development in the coil-coating industries has now made it possible to allocate different optical properties for both exterior and interior surfaces of steel-clad buildings. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the influence of surface radiation properties with the focus on the thermal emittance of the interior surfaces, the modeling approaches and their consequences in the context of the building energy performance and indoor thermal environment. The study consists of both numerical and experimental investigations. The experimental investigations include parallel field measurements on three similar test cabins with different interior and exterior surface radiation properties in Borlänge, Sweden, and two ice rink arenas with normal and low emissive ceiling in Luleå, Sweden. The numerical methods include comparative simulations by the use of dynamic heat flux models, Building Energy Simulation (BES), Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a coupled model for BES and CFD. Several parametric studies and thermal performance analyses were carried out in combination with the different numerical methods. The parallel field measurements on the test cabins include the air, surface and radiation temperatures and energy use during passive and active (heating and cooling) measurements. Both measurement and comparative simulation results indicate an improvement in the indoor thermal environment when the interior surfaces have low emittance. In the ice rink arenas, surface and radiation temperature measurements indicate a considerable reduction in the ceiling-to-ice radiation by the use of low emittance surfaces, in agreement with a ceiling-toice radiation model using schematic dynamic heat flux calculations. The measurements in the test cabins indicate that the use of low emittance surfaces can increase the vertical indoor air temperature gradients depending on the time of day and outdoor conditions. This is in agreement with the transient CFD simulations having the boundary condition assigned on the exterior surfaces. The sensitivity analyses have been performed under different outdoor conditions and surface thermal radiation properties. The spatially resolved simulations indicate an increase in the air and surface temperature gradients by the use of low emittance coatings. This can allow for lower air temperature at the occupied zone during the summer. The combined effect of interior and exterior reflective coatings in terms of energy use has been investigated by the use of building energy simulation for different climates and internal heat loads. The results indicate possible energy savings by the smart choice of optical properties on interior and exterior surfaces of the building. Overall, it is concluded that the interior reflective coatings can contribute to building energy savings and improvement of the indoor thermal environment. This can be numerically investigated by the choice of appropriate models with respect to the level of detail and computational load. This thesis includes comparative simulations at different levels of detail.

Temperature Dynamics Investigation At Small And Shallow Lakes Using Hydrodynamic Model

A three-dimensional time-dependent hydrodynamic and heat transport model of Lake Binaba, a shallow and small dam reservoir in Ghana, emphasizing the simulation of dynamics and thermal structure has been developed. Most numerical studies of temperature dynamics in reservoirs are based on one- or two-dimensional models. These models are not applicable for reservoirs characterized with complex flow pattern and unsteady heat exchange between the atmosphere and water surface. Continuity, momentum and temperature transport equations have been solved. Proper assignment of boundary conditions, especially surface heat fluxes, has been found crucial in simulating the lake’s hydrothermal dynamics. This model is based on the Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes equations, using a Boussinesq approach, with a standard k − ε turbulence closure to solve the flow field. The thermal model includes a heat source term, which takes into account the short wave radiation and also heat convection at the free surface, which is function of air temperatures, wind velocity and stability conditions of atmospheric boundary layer over the water surface. The governing equations of the model have been solved by OpenFOAM; an open source, freely available CFD toolbox. As its core, OpenFOAM has a set of efficient C++ modules that are used to build solvers. It uses collocated, polyhedral numerics that can be applied on unstructured meshes and can be easily extended to run in parallel. A new solver has been developed to solve the hydrothermal model of lake. The simulated temperature was compared against a 15 days field data set. Simulated and measured temperature profiles in the probe locations show reasonable agreement. The model might be able to compute total heat storage of water bodies to estimate evaporation from water surface.

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Intestinal anti-inflammatory activity of esculetin and 4-methylesculetin in the trinitrobenzenesulphonic acid model of rat colitis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

STRONG COUPLING LIMITS and QUANTUM ISOMORPHISMS of THE GAUGED THIRRING MODEL

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Model for stars of interacting bosons and fermions

In this paper we introduce a current-current type interaction term in the Lagrangian density of gravity coupled to complex scalar fields, in the presence of a degenerated Fermi gas. For low transferred momenta, such a term, which might account for the interaction among boson and fermion constituents of compact stellar objects, is subsequently reduced to a quadratic one in the scalar sector. This procedure enforces the use of a complex radial field counterpart in the equations of motion. The real and the imaginary components of the scalar field exhibit different behavior as the interaction increases. The results also suggest that the Bose-Fermi system undergoes a phase transition for a suitable choice of the coupling constant.