Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

Consumer Satisfaction with Websites of Banks - The Moderating Effect of Consumer Technology Attractiveness

The websites are becoming the firms’ first contact interface with their clients. Hence, understanding customers’ online attitudes and behaviors have been capturing increased research attention. The extant research has pointed customers’ satisfaction with the websites as the main reason for customers’ online behaviors. This research has used mostly variables related to the characteristics of the websites as the predictors of customers’ website satisfaction. However, recent research shows that groups of individuals displaying distinctive characteristics react differently to the same context. Therefore, behavior may be considerably different among groups of customers. In this study, we develop a conceptual model of the influence of individual characteristics on the traditional website quality – website satisfaction relationship. We propose a model based on the construct of consumer technology attractiveness (CTA) to represent the genuine positive propensity of individuals toward technology. We further test the moderating effect of this construct on the commonly used predictors of customer’s website satisfaction using Hierarchical Multiple Regression. The empirical study was based on websites of banks operating in Portuguese market. The commercial banking industry is one of the Portuguese industries that better uses the Internet to establish relationships with clients. Data were collected through an online website satisfaction survey, participated by the lecturers and postgraduate students from four Portuguese Universities and Polytechnic Institutes. Our final sample comprised 276 valid questionnaires. Our study permits to conclude that the most commonly used antecedents of website overall satisfaction are still relevant for analyzing consumer’s satisfaction with the banks websites. We also conclude that CTA has a significant moderating effect on almost all customers’ website satisfaction variables used in the study. This study contributes to highlight the theoretical importance and significant influence of consumers’ personal characteristics on their online behavior. Moreover, for the practitioners, a better understanding of these individual characteristics will assist them in developing customized websites that will meet customers’ expectations. O estudo dos comportamentos dos consumidores em ambientes online tem vindo a ter um crescente interesse, uma vez que os websites estão a transformar-se num importante ponto de contacto entre as empresas e os seus clientes. A satisfação dos clientes com os websites tem sido apontada pela Literatura como o principal condicionante dos comportamentos online dos consumidores. No entanto, a investigação científica tem conseguido provar que grupos de indivíduos com características distintas reagem de forma diferente quando submetidos a contextos idênticos, o que poderá levar a diferenças significativas no comportamento online de consumidores pertencentes a diferentes grupos. Neste estudo desenvolvemos um modelo conceptual que reflecte a influência de características individuais na relação entre a qualidade e a satisfação com os websites. Propomos um modelo assente na atractividade tecnológica do consumidor (CTA), que representa a propensão genuína que os indivíduos possuem em relação à tecnologia. Testamos o efeito moderador deste conceito sobre as variáveis mais utilizadas nos estudos sobre a satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, utilizando a Regressão Múltipla Hierárquica. O estudo empírico baseou-se nos websites dos bancos que operam no mercado português, uma vez que este sector é um dos que melhor utiliza a Internet na sua relação com os clientes. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário sobre satisfação com os websites, colocado online e dirigido a docentes e estudantes de programas de pós-graduações, mestrados e doutoramentos de quatro universidades e instituto politécnico portugueses, tendo resultado numa amostra final de 276 questionários validados estatisticamente. Este estudo permitiu concluir que as variáveis que são mais utilizadas como antecedentes da satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, continuam a ser igualmente válidas para a análise dos websites dos bancos. Também concluímos que a CTA tem efeitos moderadores significativos na grande maioria das variáveis utilizadas neste estudo. Assim, conseguimos realçar a importância teórica das características pessoais dos consumidores no seu comportamento online. Para os gestores, uma melhor compreensão destas características individuais permitir-lhes-á desenvolver websites customizados que irão satisfazer as expectativas dos seus clientes.

On Consumer Decision Strategies: New Approaches for Studying and Aiding Preferential Choices

This dissertation focuses on the strategies consumers use when making purchase decisions. It is organized in two main parts, one centering on descriptive and the other on applied decision making research. In the first part, a new process tracing tool called InterActive Process Tracing (IAPT) is pre- sented, which I developed to investigate the nature of consumers' decision strategies. This tool is a combination of several process tracing techniques, namely Active Information Search, Mouselab, and retrospective verbal protocol. To validate IAPT, two experiments on mobile phone purchase de- cisions were conducted where participants first repeatedly chose a mobile phone and then were asked to formalize their decision strategy so that it could be used to make choices for them. The choices made by the identified strategies correctly predicted the observed choices in 73% (Experiment 1) and 67% (Experiment 2) of the cases. Moreover, in Experiment 2, Mouselab and eye tracking were directly compared with respect to their impact on information search and strategy description. Only minor differences were found between these two methods. I conclude that IAPT is a useful research tool to identify choice strategies, and that using eye tracking technology did not increase its validity beyond that gained with Mouselab. In the second part, a prototype of a decision aid is introduced that was developed building in particular on the knowledge about consumers' decision strategies gained in Part I. This decision aid, which is called the InterActive Choice Aid (IACA), systematically assists consumers in their purchase decisions. To evaluate the prototype regarding its perceived utility, an experiment was conducted where IACA was compared to two other prototypes that were based on real-world consumer decision aids. All three prototypes differed in the number and type of tools they provided to facilitate the process of choosing, ranging from low (Amazon) to medium (Sunrise/dpreview) to high functionality (IACA). Overall, participants slightly preferred the prototype of medium functionality and this prototype was also rated best on the dimensions of understandability and ease of use. IACA was rated best regarding the two dimensions of ease of elimination and ease of comparison of alternatives. Moreover, participants choices were more in line with the normatively oriented weighted additive strategy when they used IACA than when they used the medium functionality prototype. The low functionality prototype was the least preferred overall. It is concluded that consumers can and will benefit from highly functional decision aids like IACA, but only when these systems are easy to understand and to use.

Advertising bans

I show that an advertising ban is more likely to increase -- ratherthan decrease -- total consumption when advertising does not bring abouta large expansion of market demand at given prices and when it increasesproduct differentiation (thus allowing firms to command higher prices). Inthis case, the main impact of a ban on advertising is to reduce equilibriumprices and thus increase demand. I argue that this is more likely tohappen in mature industries where consumer goods are ex--ante (i.e.without advertising) similar and advertising is of the `persuasive' type.The ban is the more likely to increase profits of the firms the weakerthe ability of advertising to expand total demand and the less advertisingserves to induce product differentiation.

Spinning welfare: The gains from process innovation in cotton and car production

Economists and economic historians want to know how much better life is today than in the past.Fifty years ago economic historians found surprisingly small gains from 19th century US railroads,while more recently economists have found relatively large gains from electricity, computers and cellphones. In each case the implicit or explicit assumption is that researchers were measuring the valueof a new good to society. In this paper we use the same techniques to find the value to society ofmaking existing goods cheaper. Henry Ford did not invent the car, and the inventors of mechanisedcotton spinning in the industrial revolution invented no new product. But both made existing productsdramatically cheaper, bringing them into the reach of many more consumers. That in turn haspotentially large welfare effects. We find that the consumer surplus of Henry Ford s production linewas around 2% by 1923, 15 years after Ford began to implement the moving assembly line, while themechanisation of cotton spinning was worth around 6% by 1820, 34 years after its initial invention.Both are large: of the same order of magnitude as consumer expenditure on these items, and as largeor larger than the value of the internet to consumers. On the social savings measure traditionally usedby economic historians, these process innovations were worth 15% and 18% respectively, makingthem more important than railroads. Our results remind us that process innovations can be at least asimportant for welfare and productivity as the invention of new products.

When to carry eccentric products? Optimal retail assortment under consumer returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study howthe optimal assortment of a price-taking retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects itsassortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase andkeep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortmenthas a counterintuitive structure for relatively strict return policies: It is optimal to offer a mix of the mostpopular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed asa form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high, orwhen returns are disallowed, optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a commonfinding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results:more eccentric products have higher probability of return conditional on purchase. In light of our analyticalfindings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take their return policies into accountwhen merchandising.

On money as a medium of exchange when goods vary by supply and demand

Models of the exchange process based on search theory can be usedto analyze the features of objects that make them more or less likely toemerge as ``money'' in equilibrium. These models illustrate the trade--offbetween endogenous acceptability (an equilibrium property) and intrinsiccharacteristics of goods, such as storability, recognizability, etc. Inthis paper, we look at how the relative supply and demand for various goodsaffect their likelihood of becoming money. Intuitively, goods in highdemand and/or low supply are more likely to appear as commodity money,subject to the qualification that which object ends up circulating as amedium of exchange depends at least partly on convention. Welfare propertiesare discussed.

The INTERNORM project : bridging two worlds of expert- and layknowledge in standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project is funded by the University of Lausanne, Switzerland. It aims to create an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and the experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and by providing logistic and financial support to their participation to meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective of the project is analytical: the standardization action initiated through INTERNORM provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. The paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that try to overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive, related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive, provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; a rhetorical incentive, related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Health Privacy Act Takes Effect April 14, April 2003

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Health Privacy Act Takes Effect April 14