Resolució de problemes i mètode de raonament en l'educació matemàtica

Des del principi dels temps històrics, la Matemàtica s'ha generat en totes les civilitzacions sobre la base de la resolució de problemes pràctics.Tanmateix, a partir del període grec la Història ens mostra la necessitat de fer un pas més endavant: l'evolució històrica de la Matemàtica situa els mètodes de raonament com a eix central de la recerca en Matemàtica. A partir d'una ullada als objectius i mètodes de treball d'alguns autors cabdals en la Història dels conceptes matemàtics postulem l'aprenentatge de les formes de raonament matemàtic com l'objectiu central de l'educació matemàtica, i la resolució de problemes com el mitjà més eficient per a coronar aquest objectiu.English version.From the beginning of the historical times, mathematics has been generated in all the civilizations on the base of the resolution of practical problems. Nevertheless, from the greek period History shows us the necessity to take one more step: the historical evolution of mathematics locates the methods of reasoning as the central axis of the research in mathematics. Glancing over the objectives and methods of work used bysome fundamental authors in the History of the mathematical concepts we postulated the learning of the forms of mathematical reasoning like the central objective of the mathematical education, and the resolution of problems as the most efficient way to carry out this objective.

Translation to success of surgical innovation.

Contemporary thoracic and cardiovascular surgery uses extensive equipment and devices to enable its performance. As the specialties develop and new frontiers are crossed, the technology needs to advance in a parallel fashion. Strokes of genius or problem-solving brain-storming may generate great ideas, but the metamorphosis of an idea into a physical functioning tool requires a lot more than just a thinking process. A modern surgical device is the end-point of a sophisticated, complicated and potentially treacherous route, which incorporates new skills and knowledge acquisition. Processes including technology transfer, commercialisation, corporate and product development, intellectual property and regulatory routes all play pivotal roles in this voyage. Many good ideas may fall by the wayside for a multitude of reasons as they may not be marketable or may be badly marketed. In this article, we attempt to illuminate the components required in the process of surgical innovation, which we believe must remain in the remit of the modern-day thoracic and cardiovascular surgeon.

Dealing with clients' diversity in test situations: Client categorisations in psychologists' accounts of their practices

Reducing a test administration to standardised procedures reflects the test designers' standpoint. However, from the practitioners' standpoint, each client is unique. How do psychologists deal with both standardised test administration and clients' diversity? To answer this question, we interviewed 17 psychologists working in three public services for children and adolescents about their assessment practices. We analysed the numerous "client categorisations" they produced in their accounts. We found that they had shared perceptions about their clients' diversity, and reported various non-standard practices that complemented standardised test administration, but also differed from them or were even forbidden. They seem to experience a dilemma between: (a) prescribed and situated practices; (b) scientific and situated reliability; (c) commutative and distributive justice. For practitioners, dealing with clients' diversity this is a practical problem, halfway between a problem-solving task and a moral dilemma.

Sustained antipsychotic effect of metacognitive training in psychosis: a randomized-controlled study.

Persistent psychotic symptoms represent a major challenge for psychiatric care. Basic research has shown that psychotic symptoms are associated with cognitive biases. Metacognitive training (MCT) aims at helping patients to become aware of these biases and to improve problem-solving. Fifty-two participants fulfilling diagnostic criteria of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders and persistent delusions and stabilized antipsychotic medication were enrolled in this study. Following baseline assessment patients were randomized either to treatment as usual (TAU) conditions or TAU+MCT. The intervention consisted of eight weekly 1-hour sessions (maximum: 8 hours). Participants were assessed at 8 weeks and 6-months later by blind assessors. Participants were assessed with the Psychotic Symptoms Rating Scales (PSYRATS) and the positive subscale of the PANSS. Between-group differences in post- and pre-test values were significant at a medium effect size in favor of the MCT for the PSYRATS delusion scale and the positive scale of the PANSS both at post and follow-up. The results of this study indicate that MCT training has a surplus antipsychotic effect for patients suffering from schizophrenia-related disorders who demonstrate only a partial response to antipsychotic treatment and that the effect of the intervention persists for at least 6 months after the intervention.

The rewards of cooperation: The effects of membership in European regulatory networks

Networks famously epitomize the shift from 'government' to 'governance' as governing structures for exercising control and coordination besides hierarchies and markets. Their distinctive features are their horizontality, the interdependence among member actors and an interactive decision-making style. Networks are expected to increase the problem-solving capacity of political systems in a context of growing social complexity, where political authority is increasingly fragmented across territorial and functional levels. However, very little attention has been given so far to another crucial implication of network governance - that is, the effects of networks on their members. To explore this important question, this article examines the effects of membership in European regulatory networks on two crucial attributes of member agencies, which are in charge of regulating finance, energy, telecommunications and competition: organisational growth and their regulatory powers. Panel analysis applied to data on 118 agencies during a ten-year period and semi-structured interviews provide mixed support regarding the expectation of organisational growth while strongly confirming the positive effect of networks on the increase of the regulatory powers attributed to member agencies.

Reduced left hemisphere dominance for multiple versus single anagram solutions and its modulation by individuals' schizotypy

Problem solving (including insight, divergent thinking) seems to rely on the right hemisphere (RH). These functions are difficult to assess behaviorally. We propose anagram resolution as a suitable paradigm. University students (n=32) performed three tachistoscopic lateralized visual half-field experiments (stimulus presentation 150ms). In Experiment 1, participants recalled four-letter strings. Subsequently, participants provided solutions for four-letter anagrams (one solution in Experiment 2; two solutions in Experiment 3). Additionally, participants completed a schizotypy questionnaire (O-LIFE). Results showed a right visual field advantage in Experiment 1 and 2, but no visual field advantage in Experiment 3. In Experiment 1, increasing positive schizotypy associated with a RH performance shift. Problem solving seems to require increasingly the RH when facing several rather than one solution. This result supports previous studies on the RH's role in remote associative, metaphor and discourse processing. The more complex language requirements, the less personality traits seem to matter.

Individual differences in control of language interference in late bilinguals are mainly related to general executive abilities

Background: Recent research based on comparisons between bilinguals and monolinguals postulates that bilingualism enhances cognitive control functions, because the parallel activation of languages necessitates control of interference. In a novel approach we investigated two groups of bilinguals, distinguished by their susceptibility to cross-language interference, asking whether bilinguals with strong language control abilities ('non-switchers") have an advantage in executive functions (inhibition of irrelevant information, problem solving, planning efficiency, generative fluency and self-monitoring) compared to those bilinguals showing weaker language control abilities ('switchers"). Methods: 29 late bilinguals (21 women) were evaluated using various cognitive control neuropsychological tests [e.g., Tower of Hanoi, Ruff Figural Fluency Task, Divided Attention, Go/noGo] tapping executive functions as well as four subtests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale. The analysis involved t-tests (two independent samples). Non-switchers (n = 16) were distinguished from switchers (n = 13) by their performance observed in a bilingual picture-naming task. Results: The non-switcher group demonstrated a better performance on the Tower of Hanoi and Ruff Figural Fluency task, faster reaction time in a Go/noGo and Divided Attention task, and produced significantly fewer errors in the Tower of Hanoi, Go/noGo, and Divided Attention tasks when compared to the switchers. Non-switchers performed significantly better on two verbal subtests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (Information and Similarity), but not on the Performance subtests (Picture Completion, Block Design). Conclusions: The present results suggest that bilinguals with stronger language control have indeed a cognitive advantage in the administered tests involving executive functions, in particular inhibition, self-monitoring, problem solving, and generative fluency, and in two of the intelligence tests. What remains unclear is the direction of the relationship between executive functions and language control abilities.

Tapping the innovation potential of corporate engagement with stakeholders

Summary This dissertation explores how stakeholder dialogue influences corporate processes, and speculates about the potential of this phenomenon - particularly with actors, like non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other representatives of civil society, which have received growing attention against a backdrop of increasing globalisation and which have often been cast in an adversarial light by firms - as a source of teaming and a spark for innovation in the firm. The study is set within the context of the introduction of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in Europe. Its significance lies in the fact that scientific developments and new technologies are being generated at an unprecedented rate in an era where civil society is becoming more informed, more reflexive, and more active in facilitating or blocking such new developments, which could have the potential to trigger widespread changes in economies, attitudes, and lifestyles, and address global problems like poverty, hunger, climate change, and environmental degradation. In the 1990s, companies using biotechnology to develop and offer novel products began to experience increasing pressure from civil society to disclose information about the risks associated with the use of biotechnology and GMOs, in particular. Although no harmful effects for humans or the environment have been factually demonstrated even to date (2008), this technology remains highly-contested and its introduction in Europe catalysed major companies to invest significant financial and human resources in stakeholder dialogue. A relatively new phenomenon at the time, with little theoretical backing, dialogue was seen to reflect a move towards greater engagement with stakeholders, commonly defined as those "individuals or groups with which. business interacts who have a 'stake', or vested interest in the firm" (Carroll, 1993:22) with whom firms are seen to be inextricably embedded (Andriof & Waddock, 2002). Regarding the organisation of this dissertation, Chapter 1 (Introduction) describes the context of the study, elaborates its significance for academics and business practitioners as an empirical work embedded in a sector at the heart of the debate on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Chapter 2 (Literature Review) traces the roots and evolution of CSR, drawing on Stakeholder Theory, Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Organisational Learning to establish what has already been developed in the literature regarding the stakeholder concept, motivations for engagement with stakeholders, the corporate response to external constituencies, and outcomes for the firm in terms of organisational learning and change. I used this review of the literature to guide my inquiry and to develop the key constructs through which I viewed the empirical data that was gathered. In this respect, concepts related to how the firm views itself (as a victim, follower, leader), how stakeholders are viewed (as a source of pressure and/or threat; as an asset: current and future), corporate responses (in the form of buffering, bridging, boundary redefinition), and types of organisational teaming (single-loop, double-loop, triple-loop) and change (first order, second order, third order) were particularly important in building the key constructs of the conceptual model that emerged from the analysis of the data. Chapter 3 (Methodology) describes the methodology that was used to conduct the study, affirms the appropriateness of the case study method in addressing the research question, and describes the procedures for collecting and analysing the data. Data collection took place in two phases -extending from August 1999 to October 2000, and from May to December 2001, which functioned as `snapshots' in time of the three companies under study. The data was systematically analysed and coded using ATLAS/ti, a qualitative data analysis tool, which enabled me to sort, organise, and reduce the data into a manageable form. Chapter 4 (Data Analysis) contains the three cases that were developed (anonymised as Pioneer, Helvetica, and Viking). Each case is presented in its entirety (constituting a `within case' analysis), followed by a 'cross-case' analysis, backed up by extensive verbatim evidence. Chapter 5 presents the research findings, outlines the study's limitations, describes managerial implications, and offers suggestions for where more research could elaborate the conceptual model developed through this study, as well as suggestions for additional research in areas where managerial implications were outlined. References and Appendices are included at the end. This dissertation results in the construction and description of a conceptual model, grounded in the empirical data and tied to existing literature, which portrays a set of elements and relationships deemed important for understanding the impact of stakeholder engagement for firms in terms of organisational learning and change. This model suggests that corporate perceptions about the nature of stakeholder influence the perceived value of stakeholder contributions. When stakeholders are primarily viewed as a source of pressure or threat, firms tend to adopt a reactive/defensive posture in an effort to manage stakeholders and protect the firm from sources of outside pressure -behaviour consistent with Resource Dependence Theory, which suggests that firms try to get control over extemal threats by focussing on the relevant stakeholders on whom they depend for critical resources, and try to reverse the control potentially exerted by extemal constituencies by trying to influence and manipulate these valuable stakeholders. In situations where stakeholders are viewed as a current strategic asset, firms tend to adopt a proactive/offensive posture in an effort to tap stakeholder contributions and connect the organisation to its environment - behaviour consistent with Institutional Theory, which suggests that firms try to ensure the continuing license to operate by internalising external expectations. In instances where stakeholders are viewed as a source of future value, firms tend to adopt an interactive/innovative posture in an effort to reduce or widen the embedded system and bring stakeholders into systems of innovation and feedback -behaviour consistent with the literature on Organisational Learning, which suggests that firms can learn how to optimize their performance as they develop systems and structures that are more adaptable and responsive to change The conceptual model moreover suggests that the perceived value of stakeholder contribution drives corporate aims for engagement, which can be usefully categorised as dialogue intentions spanning a continuum running from low-level to high-level to very-high level. This study suggests that activities aimed at disarming critical stakeholders (`manipulation') providing guidance and correcting misinformation (`education'), being transparent about corporate activities and policies (`information'), alleviating stakeholder concerns (`placation'), and accessing stakeholder opinion ('consultation') represent low-level dialogue intentions and are experienced by stakeholders as asymmetrical, persuasive, compliance-gaining activities that are not in line with `true' dialogue. This study also finds evidence that activities aimed at redistributing power ('partnership'), involving stakeholders in internal corporate processes (`participation'), and demonstrating corporate responsibility (`stewardship') reflect high-level dialogue intentions. This study additionally finds evidence that building and sustaining high-quality, trusted relationships which can meaningfully influence organisational policies incline a firm towards the type of interactive, proactive processes that underpin the development of sustainable corporate strategies. Dialogue intentions are related to type of corporate response: low-level intentions can lead to buffering strategies; high-level intentions can underpin bridging strategies; very high-level intentions can incline a firm towards boundary redefinition. The nature of corporate response (which encapsulates a firm's posture towards stakeholders, demonstrated by the level of dialogue intention and the firm's strategy for dealing with stakeholders) favours the type of learning and change experienced by the organisation. This study indicates that buffering strategies, where the firm attempts to protect itself against external influences and cant' out its existing strategy, typically lead to single-loop learning, whereby the firm teams how to perform better within its existing paradigm and at most, improves the performance of the established system - an outcome associated with first-order change. Bridging responses, where the firm adapts organisational activities to meet external expectations, typically leads a firm to acquire new behavioural capacities characteristic of double-loop learning, whereby insights and understanding are uncovered that are fundamentally different from existing knowledge and where stakeholders are brought into problem-solving conversations that enable them to influence corporate decision-making to address shortcomings in the system - an outcome associated with second-order change. Boundary redefinition suggests that the firm engages in triple-loop learning, where the firm changes relations with stakeholders in profound ways, considers problems from a whole-system perspective, examining the deep structures that sustain the system, producing innovation to address chronic problems and develop new opportunities - an outcome associated with third-order change. This study supports earlier theoretical and empirical studies {e.g. Weick's (1979, 1985) work on self-enactment; Maitlis & Lawrence's (2007) and Maitlis' (2005) work and Weick et al's (2005) work on sensegiving and sensemaking in organisations; Brickson's (2005, 2007) and Scott & Lane's (2000) work on organisational identity orientation}, which indicate that corporate self-perception is a key underlying factor driving the dynamics of organisational teaming and change. Such theorizing has important implications for managerial practice; namely, that a company which perceives itself as a 'victim' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of negative influence, and would therefore be potentially unable to benefit from the positive influence of engagement. Such a selfperception can blind the firm from seeing stakeholders in a more positive, contributing light, which suggests that such firms may not be inclined to embrace external sources of innovation and teaming, as they are focussed on protecting the firm against disturbing environmental influences (through buffering), and remain more likely to perform better within an existing paradigm (single-loop teaming). By contrast, a company that perceives itself as a 'leader' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of positive influence. On the downside, such a firm might have difficulty distinguishing when stakeholder contributions are less pertinent as it is deliberately more open to elements in operating environment (including stakeholders) as potential sources of learning and change, as the firm is oriented towards creating space for fundamental change (through boundary redefinition), opening issues to entirely new ways of thinking and addressing issues from whole-system perspective. A significant implication of this study is that potentially only those companies who see themselves as a leader are ultimately able to tap the innovation potential of stakeholder dialogue.

Designing online interaction to address disciplinary competencies: A cross-country comparison of faculty perspectives

This study was conducted at colleges in three countries (United States, Venezuela, and Spain) and across three academic disciplines (engineering, education, and business), to examine how experienced faculty define competencies for their discipline, and design instructional interaction for online courses. A qualitative research design employing in-depth interviews was selected. Results show that disciplinary knowledge takes precedence when faculty members select competencies to be developed in online courses for their respective professions. In all three disciplines, the design of interaction to correspond with disciplinary competencies was often influenced by contextual factors that modify faculty intention. Therefore, instructional design will vary across countries in the same discipline to address the local context, such as the needs and expectations of the learners, faculty perspectives, beliefs and values, and the needs of the institution, the community, and country. The three disciplines from the three countries agreed on the importance of the following competencies: knowledge of the field, higher order cognitive processes such as critical thinking, analysis, problem solving, transfer of knowledge, oral and written communication skills, team work, decision making, leadership and management skills, indicating far more similarities in competencies than differences between the three different applied disciplines. We found a lack of correspondence between faculty¿s intent to develop collaborative learning skills and the actual development of them. Contextual factors such as faculty prior experience in design, student reluctance to engage in collaborative learning, and institutional assessment systems that focus on individual performance were some of these reasons.

Leasingsopimusten kirjaaminen tilinpäätökseen, case: Toyota Finance Finland Oy

Tutkielman pääaiheena on leasingsopimusten kirjaaminen tilinpäätökseen viiden eri tilinpäätösnormiston näkökulmasta. Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää viiden tilinpäätösnormiston, suomalaisen GAAP:n ja IFRS:n, UK GAAP:n, US GAAP:n sekä Japanin GAAP:n, eroavaisuuksia ja yhteneväisyyksiä ja keskittyä näissä varsinkin leasingsopimusten kirjanpidollisten käsittelytapojen eroavaisuuksien tarkasteluun. Lisäksi tutkielman alatavoitteena on selvittää näiden normistojen yleisiä kirjanpidon ja tilinpäätöksen periaatteita. Tutkielman empiria perustuu case-yritys Toyota Finance Finland Oy:n ja sen emoyritysten tilinpäätösten muodon sekä konsernitilinpäätösten sisällön ja leasingsopimusten käsittelyn tarkasteluun. Tutkielma on case-tutkimus mutta se perustuu myös ongelman teoreettiseen käsittelyyn lähdemateriaalin, caseyrityksestä saadun informaation ja oman päättelyn pohjalta. Tutkielma on deskriptiivistä ja sen tarkoituksena onpyrkiä saamaan vastauksia kysymyksiin 'miten on?' ja 'miksi on?'. Tutkielman edetessä voidaan havaita, että vaikka yleiset kirjanpito- ja tilinpäätösperiaatteet ovat aika lailla samansisältöisiä kaikissa viidessä tilinpäätösnormistossa, sisältävät tietyt tilinpäätösstandardit ja -periaatteet huomattaviakin eroavaisuuksia. Leasingsopimukset ovat hyvä esimerkki tilinpäätöseristä, joiden käsittelypoikkeaa huomattavasti toisistaan näiden viiden tilinpäätösnormiston välillä.Suurimman ongelman aiheuttavat käyttö- ja rahoitusleasingsopimusten erilaiset käsittelytavat eri tilinpäätösnormistoissa. Suomalaisen lainsäädännön mukaan käyttö- ja rahoitusleasingsopimukset käsitellään kirjanpidollisesti samalla tavalla mutta esimerkiksi IFRS-normiston, UK GAAP:n ja US GAAP:n mukaan leasingsopimukset tulee jaotella käyttö- ja rahoitusleasingsopimuksiksi niille annettujen luokittelukriteereiden perusteella. Leasingsopimuksen luonteen perusteella määräytyy myös sen kirjanpidollinen käsittely. Suurimman eron suomalaisen käytännön ja esimerkiksi IFRS-normiston välillä aiheuttaa se, että rahoitusleasingsopimukset viedään IFRS-normistossa vuokralle ottajan taseeseen omaisuudeksi ja rahoitusleasingsopimuksen myötä vuokralle ottajalle siirtyy myös kaikki leasinghyödykkeeseen liittyvät edut ja riskit. Suomalaisessa käytännössä rahoitusleasing käsitellään aivan kuin käyttöleasingsopimus, vuokralle antajan taseessa. Käyttöleasingsopimuksen kirjanpidollinen käsittelytapa on kaikissa normistoissa jokseenkin samankaltainen.

Official positions of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) on DXA evaluation in children and adolescents.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most widely used technical instrument for evaluating bone mineral content (BMC) and density (BMD) in patients of all ages. However, its use in pediatric patients, during growth and development, poses a much more complex problem in terms of both the technical aspects and the interpretation of the results. For the adults population, there is a well-defined term of reference: the peak value of BMD attained by young healthy subjects at the end of skeletal growth. During childhood and adolescence, the comparison can be made only with healthy subjects of the same age, sex and ethnicity, but the situation is compounded by the wide individual variation in the process of skeletal growth (pubertal development, hormone action, body size and bone size). The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) organized a Pediatric Position Development Conference to discuss the specific problems of bone densitometry in growing subjects (9-19 years of age) and to provide essential recommendations for its clinical use.

Los protocolos de pensamiento en voz alta como instrumento para analizar el proceso de escritura

Los protocolos de pensamiento en voz alta son instrumentos metodológicos que implican, como su nombre indica, el uso de informantes ¿pensando en voz alta¿ mientras llevan a cabo una actividad. Los pensamientos articulados siguiendo esta técnica se graban para poder ser transcritos y son analizados con la ayuda de unas categorías preestablecidas para reflexionar sobre los objetivos del trabajo de investigación. La metodología ha sido ampliamente utilizada para analizar actividades de resolución de problemas (¿problem solving activities¿) en numerosos estudios de psicología cognitiva y su uso se ha extendido para analizar los procesos de escritura. Este análisis pretende explicar los orígenes de los protocolos de pensamiento en voz alta en el marco de la psicología cognitiva y revisar brevemente las obras más influyentes de Ericsson y Simon con el fin de presentar los puntos básicos del marco teórico que estos autores establecieron. A continuación se presentarán algunas consideraciones relacionadas con el hecho de utilizar la técnica de pensamiento en voz alta para analizar los procesos de escritura, y finalmente se proponen unas normas básicas a seguir por aquellas personas interesados en utilizar esta metodología.

Evaluation of the Development of Metacognitive Knowledge Supported by the KnowCat System

The aim of this study was to examine the development of the metacognitive knowledge of a group of higher education students who participated actively in an experiment based on a Computer Supported Collaborative Learning environment called KnowCat. Eighteen university students participated in a 12-month learning project during which the KnowCat learning environment was used to support scaffolding process among equals during problem-solving tasks. After using KnowCat, the students were interviewed over their work in this shared workspace. Qualitative analysis revealed that the educational application of KnowCat can favour and improve the development of metacognitive knowledge.

Wood Volume Measurement Using Color Images

Tämä työ käsittelee puutukkien tilavuuden mittaamista värikonenäön avulla. Värikuvat on saatu Simpeleellä olevan metsäteollisuusyrityksen hiomosta. Työssä esitetään perusteellisesti matemaattinen teoria, joka liittyy käytettyihin kuvankäsittelymenetelmiin, kuten luokitteluun, kohinan poistoon ja tukkien segmentointiin. Esitetyt menetelmät implementointiin käytännössä ja eri menetelmillä saatuja tuloksia vertailtiin keskenään. Kuvankäsittelyalgoritmit on implementoitu Matlab 6.0:n avulla. Pääasiassa käytettiin uusinta Image Processing Toolboxia, joka on versio 3.0. Tämä työn näkökulma on pääasiassa käytäntöön soveltava, koska metsäteollsuus on korkealla tasolla Suomessa ja siellä on paljon alan yrityksiä, joissa tässä työssä kehitettyä menetelmää voidaan hyödyntää.

Kysynnän ennustaminen leipomotuotteille ja ennusteen tarkkuuden arviointi

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kysynnän ennustamista Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:n tuotteille. Ensin työssä perehdyttiin ennustamiseen ja sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin yrityksessä. Erityisesti kysynnän ennustamisesta saatavat hyödyt käytiin läpi. Kysynnän ennustamisesta haettiin ratkaisua erityisesti ongelmiin työvuorosuunnittelussa.Työssä perehdyttiin ennustemenetelmiin liittyvään kirjallisuuteen, jonka oppien perusteella tehtiin koe-ennustuksia yrityksen kysynnän historiadatan avulla. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin kuudelle eri Turun leipomon koe-tuotteelle. Ennustettavana aikavälinä oli kahden viikon päiväkohtainen kysyntä. Tämän aikavälin erityisesti peruskysynnälle etsittiin ennustetarkkuudeltaan parasta kvantitatiivista ennustemenetelmää. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin liukuvilla keskiarvoilla, klassisella aikasarja-analyysillä, eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä, Holtin lineaarisella eksponenttitasoituksen menetelmällä, Wintersin kausittaisella eksponentiaalisella tasoituksella, autoregressiivisillä malleilla, Box-Jenkinsin menetelmällä ja regressioanalyysillä. Myös neuroverkon opettamista historiadatalla ja käyttämistä ongelman ratkaisun apuna kokeiltiin.Koe-ennustuksien tulosten perusteella ennustemenetelmien toimintaa analysoitiin jatkokehitystä varten. Ennustetarkkuuden lisäksi arvioitiin mallin yksinkertaisuutta, helppokäyttöisyyttä ja sopivuutta yrityksen monien tuotteiden ennustamiseen. Myös kausivaihteluihin, trendeihin ja erikoispäiviin kiinnitettiin huomiota. Ennustetarkkuuden huomattiin parantuvan selvästi peruskysyntää ennustettaessa, jos ensin historiadata esikäsittelemällä puhdistettiin erikoispäivistä ja –viikoista.