1000 resultados para climate negotiations


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Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.

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Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

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Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

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[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

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A small, closed, lacustrine system developed during the restraining overstep stages of the Oligocene As Pontes strike-slip basin (Spain). The increase in basin accommodation and the headward spread of the drainage, which increased the water input, triggered a change from shallow, holomictic to deeper, meromictic conditions.

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The removal of the litter layer in Portuguese pine forests would reduce fire hazard, but on the other hand this practice would influence the thermal regime of the soil, hence affecting soil biological activity, litter decomposition and nutrient dynamics. Temperature profiles of a sandy soil (Haplic Podzol) under a pine forest were measured with thermocouples at depths to 16 cm, with and without litter layer. The litter layer acted as a thermal insulator, reducing the amplitude of the periodic temperature variation in the mineral soil underneath and increasing damping depths, particularly at low soil water contents. At the mineral soil surface the reduction of amplitudes was about 2.5 ºC in the annual cycle and 5 to 6.7 ºC in the daily cycle, depending on the soil water content. When soil was both cold and wet, mean daily soil temperatures were higher (about 1 - 1.5 ºC) under the litter layer. Improved soil thermal conditions under the litter layer recommend its retention as a forest management practice to follow in general.