An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macroeconomic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the microstructure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets

Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy

The implications of local currency pricing (LCP) for monetary regime choice are analysed for a country facing foreign monetary shocks. In this analysis expenditure switching is potentially welfare reducing. This contrasts with the existing LCP literature, which focuses on productivity shocks and thus analyses a world where expenditure switching is welfare enhancing. This paper shows that, when home and foreign producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is absent and a floating rate is preferred by the home country. But when only home producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is present and a fixed rate can be welfare enhancing for the home country.

A Bootstrap Neural Network Based Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test: Application to Exchange Rates

This paper proposes a bootstrap artificial neural network based panel unit root test in a dynamic heterogeneous panel context. An application to a panel of bilateral real exchange rate series with the US Dollar from the 20 major OECD countries is provided to investigate the Purchase Power Parity (PPP). The combination of neural network and bootstrapping significantly changes the findings of the economic study in favour of PPP.

A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes

The large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.

Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals to obtain non-spurious long-run relationships and the PEER. Secondly, the impact that the permanent and transitory components of the macroeconomic fundamentals have on the real exchange rate can be modelled separately in the UC model. This is important for variables where the long and short-run effects may drive the real exchange rate in opposite directions, such as the relative government expenditure ratio. We also demonstrate that our proposed exchange rate models have good out-of sample forecasting properties. Our approach would be a useful technique for central banks to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and to forecast the long-run movements of the exchange rate.

Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models

This paper examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of three monetary fundamental models of exchange rates and compares their out-of-sample performance to that of a simple Random Walk model. Using a data-set consisting of five currencies at monthly frequency over the period January 1980 to December 2009 and a battery of newly developed performance measures, the paper shows that monetary models do better (in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting) than a simple Random Walk model.

The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

Prise en charge des cancers du cavum (rhinopharynx) Nasopharyngeal cancers, an overview.

Les cancers du cavum ont une incidence d'environ 0,5 cas par an et par 100 000 habitants pour les hommes en France, mais sont endémiques dans des régions comme l'Asie du Sud-Est. La prise en charge thérapeutique par radiothérapie exclusive, qui a longtemps été le standard, permet d'obtenir des taux de contrôle local pour les stades T3-T4 de l'ordre de 50 à 75 % des cas. Les techniques d'irradiation en modulation d'intensité permettent une excellente couverture dosimétrique avec une meilleure protection des organes à risque et doivent être privilégiées. L'apport d'une chimiothérapie concomitante à l'IMRT améliore significativement les taux de survie globale qui sont supérieurs ou égaux à 75 % à cinq ans dans les stades avancés. Dans la pratique courante, une radiochimiothérapie concomitante à base de sels de platine est réalisée mais la place des cures néoadjuvantes et/ou adjuvantes est discutée dans le but principal de diminuer les rechutes à distance, des études sont en cours. Enfin, la surveillance doit être axée sur la détection précoce de rechutes locales potentiellement curables et sur la prise en charge des séquelles thérapeutiques à long terme. Cancer of the nasopharynx is an uncommon malignancy in France (incidence = 0.5/year/100,000 men) but is endemic in areas like in South-East Asia. Exclusive radiation therapy used to be the standard and results in local control rates for T3-T4 tumors around 50-75 %. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) improves tumor coverage with a sparing of organs at risk and has to be privileged. Concurrent chemotherapy with IMRT achieved significant survival benefice with 5-year overall survival above 75 %. Concurrent radiochemotherapy with platinium is the most frequent scheme but induction and adjuvant chemotherapies are discussed to reduce distant failure: studies are currently ongoing. Follow-up aims to detect early local failures with a chance of cure and to manage long-term toxicities.

The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

Prise en charge de l'ulcère de jambe d'origine veineuse [Management of venous leg ulcers].

Leg ulcers are a major health and economic problem especially in elderly. More than 70% are associated with venous disease. Compressive therapy is the most effective treatment but bandages are often poorly tolerated and well trained nurses are required to apply them effectively. In recent years, the VAC system (vacuum assisted closure) has profoundly changed the wound healing approach. The objective is now to regenerate the tissues and not to replace them with skin grafts which give uncertain results. The other important challenge is to prevent recurrences. New pharmacologic treatments acting on microcirculation and hemostasis would probably appear in the near future opening new therapeutic perspectives.

Prise en charge par une équipe pluridisciplinaire des patients avec multiples vulnérabilités dans un service d'urgence

Introduction: Les centres d'urgence se trouvent régulièrement confrontés à des patients avec de multiples vulnérabilités médico-sociales qui recourent préférentiellement aux urgences pour y recevoir des soins de bases. Leurs fréquentes consultations contribuent à encombrer les urgences : dans notre service d'urgence entre avril 2008 et mars 2009, une étude ayant pour but de caractériser ces patients a montré que 14 % de l'ensemble des consultations ont été causées par 5 % des patients admis > 4 x/an.Matériel et méthode: Cohorte prospective des patients admis aux urgences et présentant des critères touchant > 3 axes de vulnérabilités sur les 5 axes reconnus habituellement (déterminants somatiques, de santé mentale, comportemental, social, de consommation de soins). Les patients inclus ont été soit signalés par le personnel médico-infirmier des urgences, soit dépistés par une équipe pluridisciplinaire (2 infirmières, 1 assistant social, 1 médecin) durant les jours ouvrables du 1.9.2010 au 14.12.2010.Résultats: 75 patients ont été inclus (65 % d'hommes). La moyenne d'âge était de 43 ans. 59 % étaient des migrants en provenance de : Europe (22 %), Afrique (22 %), Asie (12 %), Amériques du Sud (6 %) et du Nord (1 %). Les vulnérabilités les plus fréquentes étaient: somatiques 76 % (maladies aiguës/chroniques sévères 50 %, mauvaise adhérence thérapeutique 40 %), liées à la santé mentale 65 % (troubles anxieux et dépressifs 54 %), comportementales 80 % (addictions aux substances 73 %), sociales 93 % (absence de domicile fixe 31 %, absence d'assurance-maladie 15 %, barrières linguistiques 24 %, à l'assistance sociale 46 %) et consommation de soins (> 4 visites aux urgences/an 57 %, absence de médecin de premier recours 33 %). La charge de travail moyenne pour orienter ces patients vers des structures de santé primaire était de 3 heures/cas. Les interventions ont été d'évaluer le réseau de soins déjà impliqué (98 %), de réorienter dans le réseau ambulatoire (64 %) ou vers les services sociaux (37 %).Conclusion: Les vulnérabilités multiples sont relativement peu fréquentes dans notre service d'urgence mais leur complexité requiert des ressources qui dépassent ce que peuvent offrir des équipes de soins habituelles aux urgences. Une prise en charge individuelle par une équipe pluridisciplinaire est susceptible de fournir ces ressources et de réorienter ces patients vers des structures ambulatoires adaptées à leurs besoins.