The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Formas de mensuração X stewardship: implicações nos ativos biológicos

A aprovação da norma contábil IAS 41- Agriculture em 2001 trouxe uma série de desafios nas práticas contábeis das empresas, sendo a principal delas o reconhecimento de ganhos/perdas durante o crescimento biológico de um ativo e a mensuração destes ganhos/perdas pelo valor justo. Toda forma de reconhecimento e mensuração apresenta relação com o modelo de negócios da empresa e irá afetar o relacionamento entre os envolvidos neste contexto e a forma como os usuários da informação contábil avaliam a gestão dos recursos investidos na entidade, que é o stewardship. Desta forma o objetivo deste trabalho foi discutir quais e como os fatores internos e externos presentes no contexto social das organizações, contribuíram para que a informação contábil a valor justo atingisse o objetivo de stewardship. Para isto foi realizado um estudo etnográfico por meio de entrevistas direcionadas aos responsáveis pela informação contábil em onze empresas de diferentes segmentos do agronegócio. O modelo de analise primeiramente se ateve ao entendimento do Modelo de Mensuração dos ativos biológicos dentro destas empresas, e como esta informação é utilizada para fins de stewardship. Em três empresas, a informação contábil referente ao ativo biológico é utilizada para fins de avaliação de performance global e do gestor e para o relacionamento com o credor, que constituem elementos para a proxy do stewardship. O processo de mudança nestas empresas, analisado conforme modelo desenvolvido por Miller (1991) se deu primeiramente pela Problematização ocorrida no contexto social destas empresas, em que seu modelo de negócios tem a madeira como produto final, bem como no modelo de gestão que visa em primeiro lugar o retorno do capital investido, mensurado pela valorização da floresta ao longo dos anos. Os atores que agem para que isto se torne numa mudança efetiva, denominados de Comunidades Epistêmicas, são os acionistas e os credores destas empresas. Os acionistas que são fundos de investimentos têm que apresentar aos seus cotistas a valorização destes investimentos, e o credor (em uma das empresas) vincula a garantia dos empréstimos ao valor da floresta. Também atua neste processo de uma forma mais distante (Ação à Distância) a cultura dos fundos de investimentos, em que a gestora florestal é responsável pela formação e venda de novas áreas florestais, bem como a legislação específica da constituição destes fundos. Nas outras empresas, além de o ativo biológico ser um insumo de produção no modelo de negócios na maioria dos casos analisados, o modelo de gestão é baseado na eficiência operacional. Desta forma, a mensuração a ser utilizada deve ser relacionada tanto ao modelo de negócios como ao modelo de gestão da empresa, que são fatores que revelam como os ativos estão sendo geridos, e isto influencia na perspectiva de geração de caixa do negócio. Apesar da obrigatoriedade que uma norma contábil impõe, a prática contábil segue suas próprias leis no âmbito social que operam as empresas, e qualquer alteração imposta passa por um extenso processo de problematização antes de esta norma ser socialmente aceita.

Agricultural Credit Market Institutions: A Comparison of Selected European Countries. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 33, January 2013

This paper describes and compares the institutional framework of the agricultural credit markets in selected European countries. The institutions can be both formal (rules, regulations, authorities and actors) and informal (norms, values and relations). They also interact and in situations where the formal institutions are weak, the informal ones increase in importance. The study is based on a questionnaire sent to agricultural financial experts in selected countries. The case studies show that credit regulations are typically general, with no specific regulations for the agricultural credit market. On the other hand, several countries support agricultural credit in various forms, implying that the governments do not perceive the general credit market to function in the case of agricultural firms. In a risk assessment, the most frequent reasons for rejecting a loan application are all linked to economic performance and the situation of the farmer. Personal characteristics, such as educational level or lack of experience, were generally perceived as less influential. Another interesting point when it comes to risk assessment is that in some countries the importance of asset-based lending compared with cash flow-based lending seems to differ when concerning a first-time applicant and when there is an application to extend a loan. To get an idea of the availability of credit, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was calculated, and it showed remarkably low values for Poland and Slovakia. For all the countries, the calculated value was lower than what the financial experts would have expected. This might imply credit rationing in agriculture in some of the countries studied. The financial experts all judged the possibility of an agricultural firm obtaining a loan as higher than that for other small rural firms, implying that the latter are also credit-rationed.

Employment risks from present credit and business liquidity conditions : hearings before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, May 26 and 27; and June 8 and 9, 1982.

Item 1013-A, 1013-B (microfiche)

The Community Mental Health Medicaid Trust Fund : background, analyses and recommendations.

"December 2005."

Variáveis discriminantes para inferência da insolvência de empresas brasileiras: um estudo para o período de 2008 a 2016

This study aimed to determine if accounting and governance indicators are relevant to foresee the stages of financial stress of companies by using a logistic regression. With the formation of two samples was possible to verify if the inclusion of insolvency data defined by cash flow shortage events were relevant to increase model capacity for prediction of insolvency. The remaining insolvency stages were judicial reorganization and bankruptcy. The control sample is formed by healthy companies, from the same sector and size. The period of analysis includes events that occurred between January 2008 and March 2016. The main variables that showed significant results to predict insolvency states, a year before the event happens, were Profitability, Efficiency and Payment Capacity indicators. The Governance indicator was only significant to predict insolvency arising from judicial reorganization and bankruptcy. Among the models studied, the most accurate model presented total correctness capacity of 88,7%, classifying correctly 88% of solvent companies and 89,3% of insolvent companies. The results indicate the usefulness of financial indicators of Payment Capacity, Efficiency and Profitability, as well as the Governance variable, to discriminate the insolvency of companies.

Agency problems and capital expenditure announcements

This article examines the market valuation of announcements of new capital expenditure. Prior research suggests that the firm's growth opportunities and cash flow position condition the market response. This study jointly examines the role of growth and cash flow, and the interaction between them. Using a new data set of Australian firms that avoids problems associated with expectations models, the results are remarkably strong and support a positive association between growth opportunities and the market valuation, in addition to supporting the role of free cash flow. The findings have implications for the relationship between general investment information and stock prices.

The NASCAR phenomenon: Auto racing sponsorships and shareholder wealth

This study presents the first analysis of the impact of NASCAR sponsorship announcements on the stock prices of sponsoring firms. The primary finding of the study-that NASCAR sponsorship announcements were accompanied by the largest increases in shareholder wealth ever recorded in the marketing literature in response to a voluntary marketing program-represents a striking and unambiguous stock market endorsement of the sponsorships. Indeed, the 24 sponsors analyzed in this study experienced mean increases in shareholder wealth of over $300 million dollars, net of all of the costs associated with the sponsorships. A multiple regression analysis of firm-specific stock price changes and select corporate and sponsorship attributes indicates that NASCAR sponsorships with more successful racing teams, corporate (as opposed to product or divisional) sponsorships, and sponsorships with direct ties to the consumer automotive industry are all positively correlated with perceived sponsorship success, while corporate cash flow per share (a well-known proxy for agency conflicts within the firm) is negatively related with shareholder approval.

Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results

Responsabilidade do Auditor no Processo de Insolvência

Dada a conjuntura económica atual que atravessamos, na crescente procura de uma solução económica e financeira viável, muitas entidades tem um único recurso - a apresentação à insolvência. O devedor tem de provar a sua solvabilidade e saber qual o momento oportuno para apresentação à insolvência. Neste estudo foram comparadas quatro empresas solventes com quatro empresas insolventes e verificada aplicação prática dos métodos estudados de previsão de futuras insolvências. Dada a escassa informação que temos relativa às empresas insolventes torna-se difícil efetuar uma comparação em termos equitativos, mas denota-se que as empresas solventes tem muitas mais possibilidades de solicitar financiamentos aos sócios ou até mesmo à banca, enquanto que as insolventes não têm bases sólidas para financiar as suas atividades e normalmente trazem para o mercado produtos obsoletos. A opinião do auditor é imparcial e mesmo que emita a sua opinião quanto à continuidade para o futuro próximo, a decisão vai passar pelos responsáveis da empresa. A estes cabe a decisão de reestruturação da empresa, podendo passar por um Processo Especial de Revitalização, um plano de insolvência ou até mesmo a liquidação. Quanto ao plano de insolvência pode a empresa ser recuperada e é realizado um diagnóstico que poderá passar por saber se a empresa é capaz de ter um desempenho normal do ponto de vista competitivo, fornecer um serviço ou um produto capaz de satisfazer as necessidades do seu mercado e à oferta da concorrência, gerar um cash-flow satisfatório que permita a remuneração dos fatores produtivos e a sua renovação continuada de modo a manter-se competitiva face à concorrência e bem como a analise do valor económico. Caso o diagnóstico se revele positivo, há que determinar quais as medidas de reestruturação necessárias a levar em consideração e verificar se a continuidade da empresa cria mais valor para os credores que a sua liquidação.

How does ownership structure affect capital structure and firm value?:Recent evidence from East Asia

The present paper examines the effects of ownership structures on capital structure and firm valuation. It argues that the effects of separation of control from cash flow rights on capital structure and firm value also depend on the separation of control from management as well as on legal rules and enforcement defining investors' protection. We obtain firm-level panel data (three stage least squares, 3SLS) estimates from four of the East Asian countries worst affected by the last crisis. There is evidence that the general wisdom that higher control than cash flow rights may lower firm value may be reversed among owner-managed family firms in the sample countries. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The East Asian crisis and financing corporate investment:is there a cause for concern?

In view of limited empirical evidence concerning the microeconomic aspects of corporate financial problems in the East Asian countries in the 1990s, this paper analyses the financing pattern of corporate investment in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. The analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of listed firms during the period 1989–1997. By using firm size, retention practices, and leverage as three different indicators of financial constraint on firm investment, we have examined the role of various internal and external financing variables on corporate investment in the sample countries. Results indicate that a large number of sample firms depend on free cash flow, especially in Indonesia; there was also a steady increase in debt-equity ratio in all countries. There were signs of agency costs in the use of cash flow in Korea and Malaysia and also in the use of debt financing in Malaysia and Thailand. There was also sign of over-investment among the Thai firms during 1994–1997 though it appears very little if at all was done to redress it in time.

Corporate restructuring: empirical evidence from the UK

Corporate restructuring is perceived as a challenge to research. Prior studies do not provide conclusive evidence regarding the effects of restructuring. Since there are discernible findings, this research attempts to examine the effects of restructuring events amongst the UK listed firms. The sample firms are listed in the LSE and London AIM stock exchange. Only completed restructuring transactions are included in the study. The time horizon extends from year 1999 to 2003. A three-year floating window is assigned to examine the sample firms. The key enquiry is to scrutinise the ex post effects of restructuring on performance and value measures of firms with contrast to a matched criteria non-restructured sample. A cross sectional study employing logit estimate is undertaken to examine firm characteristics of restructuring samples. Further, additional parameters, i.e. Conditional Volatility and Asymmetry are generated under the GJR-GARCH estimate and reiterated in logit models to capture time-varying heteroscedasticity of the samples. This research incorporates most forms of restructurings, while prior studies have examined certain forms of restructuring. Particularly, these studies have made limited attempts to examine different restructuring events simultaneously. In addition to logit analysis, an event study is adopted to evaluate the announcement effect of restructuring under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimate supplementing our prior results. By engaging a composite empirical framework, our estimation method validates a full appreciation of restructuring effect. The study provides evidence that restructurings indicate non-trivial significant positive effect. There are some evidences that the response differs because of the types of restructuring, particularly while event study is applied. The results establish that performance measures, i.e. Operating Profit Margin, Return on Equity, Return on Assets, Growth, Size, Profit Margin and Shareholders' Ownership indicate consistent and significant increase. However, Leverage and Asset Turn Over suggest reasonable influence on restructuring across the sample period. Similarly, value measures, i.e. Abnormal Returns, Return on Equity and Cash Flow Margin suggest sizeable improvement. A notable characteristic seen coherently throughout the analysis is the decreasing proportion of Systematic Risk. Consistent with these findings, Conditional Volatility and Asymmetry exhibit similar trend. The event study analysis suggests that on an average market perceives restructuring favourably and shareholders experience significant and systematic positive gain.

An investigation of the emerging system of host government participation in the international oil industry with particular reference to Libyan participation arrangements

This study has been conceived with the primary objective of identifying and evaluating the financial aspects of the transformation in country/company relations of the international oil industry from the traditional concessionary system to the system of governmental participation in the ownership and operation of oil concessions. The emphasis of the inquiry was placed on assembling a case study of the oil exploitation arrangements of Libya. Through a comprehensive review of the literature, the sociopolitical factors surrounding the international oil business were identified and examined in an attempt to see their influence on contractual arrangements and particularly to gauge the impact of any induced contractual changes on the revenue benefit accruing to the host country from its oil operations. Some comparative analyses were made in the study to examine the viability of the Libyan participation deals both as an investment proposal and as a system of conducting oil activities in the country. The analysis was carried out in the light of specific hypotheses to assess the relative impact of the participation scheme in comparison with the alternative concessionary model on the net revenue resulting to the government from oil operations and the relative effect on the level of research and development within the industry. A discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to measure inputs and outputs of the comparative models and judge their revenue benefits. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to detect any significant behavioural changes in the exploration and development effort associated with the different oil exploitation systems. Results of the investigation of revenues support the argument that the mere introduction of the participation system has not resulted in a significant revenue benefit to the host government. Though there has been a significant increase in government revenue, associated with the period following the emergence of the participation agreements, this increase was mainly due to socio-economic factors other than the participation scheme. At the same time the empirical results have shown an association of the participation scheme with a decline of the oil industry's research and development efforts.

Investment efficiency among a cross-section of UK firms:implications for the debate on financing constraints

In this paper, we address this policy issue using a stylised methodology that relies on estimates of the cash flow sensitivity of firms’ investment, as well as a relatively new methodology that enables us to generate a (0, 1) bounded measure of investment efficiency of firms, i.e., the efficiency with which firms can convert their sales into investment, after controlling for unobserved year- and industry-specific effects. Higher investment efficiency is associated with lower financing constraint. Our results indicate that there is considerable heterogeneity in investment efficiency across firms, during a given year; the range being 0.57-0.82. However, the average investment efficiency measure is similar across years, regions and NACE 2-digit industries. We also do not find discernible patterns in the relationship between investment efficiency and firm size, both before and during the financial crisis. The results suggest that while some firms are clearly less efficient at translating their performance into investment, broad policies targeting firms of a certain size, or those within a particular industry or region, may not successfully address the problem of financing constraint in the United Kingdom. The targeting of firms with financing constraints may have to be considerably more refined, and look at not easily observable factors such as credit history/events and organisational capacity of the firms.