889 resultados para call data, paradata, CATI, calling time, call scheduler, random assignment


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

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The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

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BTES (borehole thermal energy storage)systems exchange thermal energy by conduction with the surrounding ground through borehole materials. The spatial variability of the geological properties and the space-time variability of hydrogeological conditions affect the real power rate of heat exchangers and, consequently, the amount of energy extracted from / injected into the ground. For this reason, it is not an easy task to identify the underground thermal properties to use when designing. At the current state of technology, Thermal Response Test (TRT) is the in situ test for the characterization of ground thermal properties with the higher degree of accuracy, but it doesn’t fully solve the problem of characterizing the thermal properties of a shallow geothermal reservoir, simply because it characterizes only the neighborhood of the heat exchanger at hand and only for the test duration. Different analytical and numerical models exist for the characterization of shallow geothermal reservoir, but they are still inadequate and not exhaustive: more sophisticated models must be taken into account and a geostatistical approach is needed to tackle natural variability and estimates uncertainty. The approach adopted for reservoir characterization is the “inverse problem”, typical of oil&gas field analysis. Similarly, we create different realizations of thermal properties by direct sequential simulation and we find the best one fitting real production data (fluid temperature along time). The software used to develop heat production simulation is FEFLOW 5.4 (Finite Element subsurface FLOW system). A geostatistical reservoir model has been set up based on literature thermal properties data and spatial variability hypotheses, and a real TRT has been tested. Then we analyzed and used as well two other codes (SA-Geotherm and FV-Geotherm) which are two implementation of the same numerical model of FEFLOW (Al-Khoury model).

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La cippatura è un processo produttivo fondamentale nella trasformazione della materia prima forestale in biomassa combustibile che coinvolgerà un numero sempre più crescente di operatori. Scopo dello studio è stato quantificare la produttività e il consumo di combustibile in 16 cantieri di cippatura e determinare i livelli di esposizione alla polvere di legno degli addetti alla cippatura, in funzione di condizioni operative differenti. Sono state identificate due tipologie di cantiere: uno industriale, con cippatrici di grossa taglia (300-400kW) dotate di cabina, e uno semi-industriale con cippatrici di piccola-media taglia (100-150kW) prive di cabina. In tutti i cantieri sono stati misurati i tempi di lavoro, i consumi di combustibile, l’esposizione alla polvere di legno e sono stati raccolti dei campioni di cippato per l’analisi qualitativa. Il cantiere industriale ha raggiunto una produttività media oraria di 25 Mg tal quali, ed è risultato 5 volte più produttivo di quello semi-industriale, che ha raggiunto una produttività media oraria di 5 Mg. Ipotizzando un utilizzo massimo annuo di 1500 ore, il cantiere semi-industriale raggiunge una produzione annua di 7.410 Mg, mentre quello industriale di 37.605 Mg. Il consumo specifico di gasolio (L per Mg di cippato) è risultato molto minore per il cantiere industriale, che consuma in media quasi la metà di quello semi-industriale. Riguardo all’esposizione degli operatori alla polvere di legno, tutti i campioni hanno riportato valori di esposizione inferiori a 5 mg/m3 (limite di legge previsto dal D.Lgs. 81/08). Nei cantieri semi-industriali il valore medio di esposizione è risultato di 1,35 mg/m3, con un valore massimo di 3,66 mg/m3. Nei cantieri industriali si è riscontrato che la cabina riduce drasticamente l’esposizione alle polveri di legno. I valori medi misurati all’esterno della cabina sono stati di 0,90 mg/m3 mentre quelli all’interno della cabina sono risultati pari a 0,20 mg/m3.

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Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.

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Mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy is a promising approach for regaining muscle function after trauma. Prior to clinical application, the ideal time of transplantation has to be determined. We investigated the effects of immediate and delayed transplantation. Sprague-Dawley rats received a crush trauma to the left soleus muscle. Treatment groups were transplanted locally with 2 × 10(6) autologous MSCs, either immediately or 7 days after trauma. Saline was used as sham therapy. Contraction force tests and histological analyses were performed 4 weeks after injury. GFP-labelled MSCs were followed after transplantation. The traumatized soleus muscles of the sham group displayed a reduction of twitch forces to 36 ± 17% and of tetanic forces to 29 ± 11% of the non-injured right control side, respectively. Delayed MSC transplantation resulted in a significant improvement of contraction maxima in both stimulation modes (twitch, p = 0.011; tetany, p = 0.014). Immediate transplantation showed a significant increase in twitch forces to 59 ± 17% (p = 0.043). There was no significant difference in contraction forces between muscles treated by immediate and delayed cell transplantation. We were able to identify MSCs in the interstitium of the injured muscles up to 4 weeks after transplantation. Despite the fundamental differences of the local environment, which MSCs encounter after transplantation, similar results could be obtained with respect to functional muscle regeneration. We believe that transplanted MSCs residing in the interstitial compartment evolve their regenerative capabilities through paracrine pathways. Our data suggest a large time window of the therapeutical measures.

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BACKGROUND: IL-18 is a pleiotrophic cytokine involved in both, T-helper type 1 (Th1) and Th2 differentiation. Recently genetic variants in the IL-18 gene have been associated with increased risk of atopy and asthma. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of a genetic, haplotype-tagging promotor variant -137G/C in the IL-18 gene with atopic asthma in a large, well-characterized and population-based study of adults. METHODS: Prospective cohort study design was used to collect interview and biological measurement data at two examination time-points 11 years apart. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of genotype with asthma and atopy. RESULTS: The G-allele of the IL-18 promotor variant (-137G/C) was associated with a markedly increased risk for the prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma with concomitant skin reactivity to common allergens. Stratification of the asthma cases by skin reactivity to common allergens revealed an exclusive association of IL-18 -137 G-allele with an increased prevalence of atopic asthma (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 3.63; 95% confidence interval: (1.64-8.02) for GC or GG carriers vs. CC carriers), and no according association with asthma and concomitant negative skin reactivity (adjusted OR: 1.13; 0.66-1.94). The interaction between IL-18 -137G/C genotype and positive skin prick test was statistically significant (P=0.029). None of 74 incident asthma cases with atopy at baseline exhibited the CC genotype. CONCLUSION: Our results strongly suggest that this variant of the IL-18 gene is an important genetic determinant involved in the development of atopic asthma.

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Statins exert anti-inflammatory, anti-atherogenic actions. The mechanisms responsible for these effects remain only partially elucidated. Diabetes and obesity are characterized by low-grade inflammation. Metabolic and endocrine adipocyte dysfunction is known to play a crucial role in the development of these disorders and the related cardiovascular complications. Thus, direct modulation of adipocyte function may represent a mechanism of pleiotropic statin actions. We investigated effects of atorvastatin on apoptosis, differentiation, endocrine, and metabolic functions in murine white and brown adipocyte lines. Direct exposure of differentiating preadipocytes to atorvastatin strongly reduced lipid accumulation and diminished protein expression of the differentiation marker CCAAT/enhancer binding protein-beta (CEBP-beta). In fully differentiated adipocytes, however, lipid accumulation remained unchanged after chronic atorvastatin treatment. Furthermore, cell viability was reduced in response to atorvastatin treatment in proliferating and differentiating preadipocytes, but not in differentiated cells. Moreover, atorvastatin induced apoptosis and inhibited protein kinase B (AKT) phosphorylation in proliferating and differentiating preadipocytes, but not in differentiated adipocytes. On the endocrine level, direct atorvastatin treatment of differentiated white adipocytes enhanced expression of the pro-inflammatory adipokine interleukin-6 (IL-6), and downregulated expression of the insulin-mimetic and anti-inflammatory adipokines visfatin and adiponectin. Finally, these direct adipotropic endocrine effects of atorvastatin were paralleled by the acute inhibition of insulin-induced glucose uptake in differentiated white adipocytes, while protein expression of the thermogenic uncoupling protein-1 (UCP-1) in brown adipocytes remained unchanged. Taken together, our data for the first time demonstrate direct differentiation state-dependent effects of atorvastatin including apoptosis, modulation of pro-inflammatory and glucostatic adipokine expression, and insulin resistance in adipose cells. These differential interactions may explain variable clinical observations.

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This study investigated the effectiveness of incorporating several new instructional strategies into an International Baccalaureate (IB) chemistry course in terms of how they supported high school seniors’ understanding of electrochemistry. The three new methods used were (a) providing opportunities for visualization of particle movement by student manipulation of physical models and interactive computer simulations, (b) explicitly addressing common misconceptions identified in the literature, and (c) teaching an algorithmic, step-wise approach for determining the products of an aqueous solution electrolysis. Changes in student understanding were assessed through test scores on both internally and externally administered exams over a two-year period. It was found that visualization practice and explicit misconception instruction improved student understanding, but the effect was more apparent in the short-term. The data suggested that instruction time spent on algorithm practice was insufficient to cause significant test score improvement. There was, however, a substantial increase in the percentage of the experimental group students who chose to answer an optional electrochemistry-related external exam question, indicating an increase in student confidence. Implications for future instruction are discussed.

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For a fluid dynamics experimental flow measurement technique, particle image velocimetry (PIV) provides significant advantages over other measurement techniques in its field. In contrast to temperature and pressure based probe measurements or other laser diagnostic techniques including laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and phase Doppler particle analysis (PDPA), PIV is unique due to its whole field measurement capability, non-intrusive nature, and ability to collect a vast amount of experimental data in a short time frame providing both quantitative and qualitative insight. These properties make PIV a desirable measurement technique for studies encompassing a broad range of fluid dynamics applications. However, as an optical measurement technique, PIV also requires a substantial technical understanding and application experience to acquire consistent, reliable results. Both a technical understanding of particle image velocimetry and practical application experience are gained by applying a planar PIV system at Michigan Technological University’s Combustion Science Exploration Laboratory (CSEL) and Alternative Fuels Combustion Laboratory (AFCL). Here a PIV system was applied to non-reacting and reacting gaseous environments to make two component planar PIV as well as three component stereographic PIV flow field velocity measurements in conjunction with chemiluminescence imaging in the case of reacting flows. This thesis outlines near surface flow field characteristics in a tumble strip lined channel, three component velocity profiles of non-reacting and reacting swirled flow in a swirl stabilized lean condition premixed/prevaporized-fuel model gas turbine combustor operating on methane at 5-7 kW, and two component planar PIV measurements characterizing the AFCL’s 1.1 liter closed combustion chamber under dual fan driven turbulent mixing flow.

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The ActiGraph accelerometer is commonly used to measure physical activity in children. Count cut-off points are needed when using accelerometer data to determine the time a person spent in moderate or vigorous physical activity. For the GT3X accelerometer no cut-off points for young children have been published yet. The aim of the current study was thus to develop and validate count cut-off points for young children. Thirty-two children aged 5 to 9 years performed four locomotor and four play activities. Activity classification into the light-, moderate- or vigorous-intensity category was based on energy expenditure measurements with indirect calorimetry. Vertical axis as well as vector magnitude cut-off points were determined through receiver operating characteristic curve analyses with the data of two thirds of the study group and validated with the data of the remaining third. The vertical axis cut-off points were 133 counts per 5 sec for moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), 193 counts for vigorous activity (VPA) corresponding to a metabolic threshold of 5 MET and 233 for VPA corresponding to 6 MET. The vector magnitude cut-off points were 246 counts per 5 sec for MVPA, 316 counts for VPA - 5 MET and 381 counts for VPA - 6 MET. When validated, the current cut-off points generally showed high recognition rates for each category, high sensitivity and specificity values and moderate agreement in terms of the Kappa statistic. These results were similar for vertical axis and vector magnitude cut-off points. The current cut-off points adequately reflect MVPA and VPA in young children. Cut-off points based on vector magnitude counts did not appear to reflect the intensity categories better than cut-off points based on vertical axis counts alone.

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The purpose of this online course is to ensure new nursing graduate students know how to use computer technologies required to complete academic and research activities. Powerful computers, high speed internet, digitalized resources and databases are widely available in educational institutes. New renovation and updates are being released at faster pace than ever. All these developments are necessary for a student to utilize computer programs and synthesize large amount of data in a limited time for any given academic research project. [See PDF for complete abstract]

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This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

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SUMMARY There is interest in the potential of companion animal surveillance to provide data to improve pet health and to provide early warning of environmental hazards to people. We implemented a companion animal surveillance system in Calgary, Alberta and the surrounding communities. Informatics technologies automatically extracted electronic medical records from participating veterinary practices and identified cases of enteric syndrome in the warehoused records. The data were analysed using time-series analyses and a retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic. We identified a seasonal pattern of reports of occurrences of enteric syndromes in companion animals and four statistically significant clusters of enteric syndrome cases. The cases within each cluster were examined and information about the animals involved (species, age, sex), their vaccination history, possible exposure or risk behaviour history, information about disease severity, and the aetiological diagnosis was collected. We then assessed whether the cases within the cluster were unusual and if they represented an animal or public health threat. There was often insufficient information recorded in the medical record to characterize the clusters by aetiology or exposures. Space-time analysis of companion animal enteric syndrome cases found evidence of clustering. Collection of more epidemiologically relevant data would enhance the utility of practice-based companion animal surveillance.