Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.

Health professionals’ perspectives on information provision for patients with brain tumours and their families

A significant number of patients diagnosed with primary brain tumours report unmet information needs. Using concept mapping methodology, this study aimed to identify strategies for improving information provision, and to describe factors that health professionals understood to influence their provision of information to patients with brain tumours and their families. Concept mapping is a mixed methods approach that uses statistical methods to represent participants’ perceived relationships between elements as conceptual maps. These maps, and results of associated data collection and analyses, are used to extract concepts involved in information provision to these patients. Thirty health professionals working across a range of neuro-oncology roles and settings participated in the concept mapping process. Participants rated a care coordinator as the most important strategy for improving brain tumour care, with psychological support as a whole rated as the most important element of care. Five major themes were identified as facilitating information provision: health professionals’ communication skills, style and attitudes; patients’ needs and preferences; perceptions of patients’ need for protection and initiative; rapport and continuity between patients and health professionals; and the nature of the health care system. Overall, health professionals conceptualised information provision as ‘individualised’, dependent on these interconnected personal and environmental factors.

Langevin dynamics modeling of the water diffusion tensor in partially aligned collagen networks

In this work, a Langevin dynamics model of the diffusion of water in articular cartilage was developed. Numerical simulations of the translational dynamics of water molecules and their interaction with collagen fibers were used to study the quantitative relationship between the organization of the collagen fiber network and the diffusion tensor of water in model cartilage. Langevin dynamics was used to simulate water diffusion in both ordered and partially disordered cartilage models. In addition, an analytical approach was developed to estimate the diffusion tensor for a network comprising a given distribution of fiber orientations. The key findings are that (1) an approximately linear relationship was observed between collagen volume fraction and the fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor in fiber networks of a given degree of alignment, (2) for any given fiber volume fraction, fractional anisotropy follows a fiber alignment dependency similar to the square of the second Legendre polynomial of cos(θ), with the minimum anisotropy occurring at approximately the magic angle (θMA), and (3) a decrease in the principal eigenvalue and an increase in the transverse eigenvalues is observed as the fiber orientation angle θ progresses from 0◦ to 90◦. The corresponding diffusion ellipsoids are prolate for θ < θMA, spherical for θ ≈ θMA, and oblate for θ > θMA. Expansion of the model to include discrimination between the combined effects of alignment disorder and collagen fiber volume fraction on the diffusion tensor is discussed.

Modeling resource management in the building design process by information constraint Petri nets

The effect of resource management on the building design process directly influences the development cycle time and success of construction projects. This paper presents the information constraint net (ICN) to represent the complex information constraint relations among design activities involved in the building design process. An algorithm is developed to transform the information constraints throughout the ICN into a Petri net model. A resource management model is developed using the ICN to simulate and optimize resource allocation in the design process. An example is provided to justify the proposed model through a simulation analysis of the CPN Tools platform in the detailed structural design. The result demonstrates that the proposed approach can obtain the resource management and optimization needed for shortening the development cycle and optimal allocation of resources.

Extending Web Modeling Language to exploit stigmergy : intentionally recording unintentional trails

Software development and Web site development techniques have evolved significantly over the past 20 years. The relatively young Web Application development area has borrowed heavily from traditional software development methodologies primarily due to the similarities in areas of data persistence and User Interface (UI) design. Recent developments in this area propose a new Web Modeling Language (WebML) to facilitate the nuances specific to Web development. WebML is one of a number of implementations designed to enable modeling of web site interaction flows while being extendable to accommodate new features in Web site development into the future. Our research aims to extend WebML with a focus on stigmergy which is a biological term originally used to describe coordination between insects. We see design features in existing Web sites that mimic stigmergic mechanisms as part of the UI. We believe that we can synthesize and embed stigmergy in Web 2.0 sites. This paper focuses on the sub-topic of site UI design and stigmergic mechanism designs required to achieve this.

Role of kilometer-scale weak circular heterogeneities on upper crustal deformation patterns: Evidence from scaled analogue modeling and the Sudbury Basin, Canada

The Sudbury Basin is a non-cylindrical fold basin occupying the central portion of the Sudbury Impact Structure. The impact structure lends itself excellently to explore the structural evolution of continental crust containing a circular region of long-term weakness. In a series of scaled analogue experiments various model crustal configurations were shortened horizontally at a constant rate. In mechanically weakened crust, model basins formed that mimic several first-order structural characteristics of the Sudbury Basin: (1) asymmetric, non-cylindrical folding of the Basin, (2) structures indicating concentric shortening around lateral basin termini and (3) the presence of a zone of strain concentration near the hinge zones of model basins. Geometrically and kinematically this zone corresponds to the South Range Shear Zone of the Sudbury Basin. According to our experiments, this shear zone is a direct mechanical consequence of basin formation, rather than the result of thrusting following folding. Overall, the models highlight the structurally anomalous character of the Sudbury Basin within the Paleoproterozoic Eastern Penokean Orogen. In particular, our models suggest that the Basin formed by pure shear thickening of crust, whereas transpressive deformation prevailed elsewhere in the orogen. The model basin is deformed by thickening and non-cylindrical synformal buckling, while conjugate transpressive shear zones propagated away from its lateral tips. This is consistent with pure shear deformation of a weak circular inclusion in a strong matrix. The models suggest that the Sudbury Basin formed as a consequence of long-term weakening of the upper crust by meteorite impact.

Modeling heat and mass transfer process during convection drying of fruit

Fruit drying is a process of removing moisture to preserve fruits by preventing microbial spoilage. It increases shelf life, reduce weight and volume thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. But, it is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the material. In this background, the aim of this paper to develop a mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the fruits during drying. Two models were developed considering shrinkage dependent and temperature dependent moisture diffusivity and the results were compared. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer are solved and a parametric study has been done with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3. The predicted results were validated with experimental data.

Nutritional status in Parkinson's disease patients undergoing deep-brain stimulation surgery : a pilot study

People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are at higher risk of malnutrition due to PD symptoms and pharmacotherapy side effects. Poorer outcomes are associated with higher amounts of weight loss (>5%) and lower levels of fat free mass. When pharmacotherapy is no longer effective for symptom control, deep-brain stimulation (DBS) surgery may be considered. People with PD scheduled for DBS surgery were recruited from a Brisbane neurological clinic (n=11 out of 16). The Scale for Outcomes of Parkinson’s disease –Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT), Modified Constipation Assessment Scale (MCAS), and a 3-day food diary were mailed to participants’ homes for completion prior to hospital admission. During admission, the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), weight, height and body composition were assessed. Mean(±s.d.) PD duration from diagnosis and time since occurrence of PD symptoms was 9.0(±8.0) and 12(±8.8) years, respectively. Five participants reported unintentional weight loss (average loss of 15.6%). PD duration but not years since symptom onset significantly predicted PG-SGA scores (β=4.2, t(8)=2.7, p<.05). Both were positively correlated with PG-SGA score (r = .667, r=.587). On average, participants classified as well-nourished (SGA-A) (n=4) were younger, had shorter disease durations, lower PG-SGA scores, higher body mass (BMI) and fat free mass (FFMI) indices when compared to malnourished participants (SGA-B) (n=7). They also reported fewer non-motor symptoms on the SCOPA-AUT and MCAS. Three participants had previously received dietetic advice but not in relation to PD. These findings demonstrate that malnutrition remains unrecognised and untreated in this group despite unintentional weight loss and a high prevalence of malnutrition.

Nutritional status in Parkinson’s disease patients undergoing deep brain stimulation surgery : a pilot study

Objectives: People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are at higher risk of malnutrition due to PD symptoms and pharmacotherapy side effects. When pharmacotherapy is no longer effective for symptom control, deep-brain stimulation (DBS) surgery may be considered. The aim of this study was to assess the nutritional status of people with PD who may be at higher risk of malnutrition related to unsatisfactory symptom management with optimised medical therapy. Design: This was an observational study using a convenience sample. Setting: Participants were seen during their hospital admission for their deep brain stimulation surgery. Participants: People with PD scheduled for DBS surgery were recruited from a Brisbane neurological clinic (n=15). Measurements: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), weight, height and body composition were assessed to determine nutritional status. Results: Six participants (40%) were classified as moderately malnourished (SGA-B). Eight participants (53%) reported previous unintentional weight loss (average loss of 13.3%). On average, participants classified as well-nourished (SGA-A) were younger, had shorter disease durations, lower PG-SGA scores, higher body mass (BMI) and fat free mass indices (FFMI) when compared to malnourished participants (SGA-B). Five participants had previously received dietetic advice but only one in relation to unintentional weight loss. Conclusion: Malnutrition remains unrecognised and untreated in this group despite unintentional weight loss and presence of nutrition impact symptoms. Improving nutritional status prior to surgery may improve surgical outcomes.

Near-Wall Turbulent Pressure Diffusion Modeling and Influence in Three-Dimensional Secondary Flows

The purpose of this paper is to develop a second-moment closure with a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion model for three-dimensional complex flows, and to evaluate the influence of the turbulent diffusion term on the prediction of detached and secondary flows. A complete turbulent diffusion model including a near-wall turbulent pressure diffusion closure for the slow part was developed based on the tensorial form of Lumley and included in a re-calibrated wall-normal-free Reynolds-stress model developed by Gerolymos and Vallet. The proposed model was validated against several one-, two, and three-dimensional complex flows.

Eigenvoice modeling for cross likelihood ratio based speaker clustering : a Bayesian approach

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian approaches with the cross likelihood ratio (CLR) as a criterion for speaker clustering within a speaker diarization system, using eigenvoice modeling techniques. The CLR has previously been shown to be an effective decision criterion for speaker clustering using Gaussian mixture models. Recently, eigenvoice modeling has become an increasingly popular technique, due to its ability to adequately represent a speaker based on sparse training data, as well as to provide an improved capture of differences in speaker characteristics. The integration of eigenvoice modeling into the CLR framework to capitalize on the advantage of both techniques has also been shown to be beneficial for the speaker clustering task. Building on that success, this paper proposes the use of Bayesian methods to compute the conditional probabilities in computing the CLR, thus effectively combining the eigenvoice-CLR framework with the advantages of a Bayesian approach to the diarization problem. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset show an improved clustering performance, resulting in a 33.5% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate (DER) compared to the baseline system.

Use of a clay modeling task to reduce chocolate craving

Elaborated Intrusion theory (EI theory; Kavanagh, Andrade, & May, 2005) posits two main cognitive components in craving: associative processes that lead to intrusive thoughts about the craved substance or activity, and elaborative processes supporting mental imagery of the substance or activity. We used a novel visuospatial task to test the hypothesis that visual imagery plays a key role in craving. Experiment 1 showed that spending 10 min constructing shapes from modeling clay (plasticine) reduced participants' craving for chocolate compared with spending 10 min 'letting your mind wander'. Increasing the load on verbal working memory using a mental arithmetic task (counting backwards by threes) did not reduce craving further. Experiment 2 compared effects on craving of a simpler verbal task (counting by ones) and clay modeling. Clay modeling reduced overall craving strength and strength of craving imagery, and reduced the frequency of thoughts about chocolate. The results are consistent with EI theory, showing that craving is reduced by loading the visuospatial sketchpad of working memory but not by loading the phonological loop. Clay modeling might be a useful self-help tool to help manage craving for chocolate, snacks and other foods.