Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments

Estimating dormant and active hematopoietic stem cell kinetics through extensive modeling of bromodeoxyuridine label-retaining cell dynamics.

Bone marrow hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are responsible for both lifelong daily maintenance of all blood cells and for repair after cell loss. Until recently the cellular mechanisms by which HSCs accomplish these two very different tasks remained an open question. Biological evidence has now been found for the existence of two related mouse HSC populations. First, a dormant HSC (d-HSC) population which harbors the highest self-renewal potential of all blood cells but is only induced into active self-renewal in response to hematopoietic stress. And second, an active HSC (a-HSC) subset that by and large produces the progenitors and mature cells required for maintenance of day-to-day hematopoiesis. Here we present computational analyses further supporting the d-HSC concept through extensive modeling of experimental DNA label-retaining cell (LRC) data. Our conclusion that the presence of a slowly dividing subpopulation of HSCs is the most likely explanation (amongst the various possible causes including stochastic cellular variation) of the observed long term Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) retention, is confirmed by the deterministic and stochastic models presented here. Moreover, modeling both HSC BrdU uptake and dilution in three stages and careful treatment of the BrdU detection sensitivity permitted improved estimates of HSC turnover rates. This analysis predicts that d-HSCs cycle about once every 149-193 days and a-HSCs about once every 28-36 days. We further predict that, using LRC assays, a 75%-92.5% purification of d-HSCs can be achieved after 59-130 days of chase. Interestingly, the d-HSC proportion is now estimated to be around 30-45% of total HSCs - more than twice that of our previous estimate.

Risk-benefit balance assessment of SSRI antidepressant use during pregnancy and lactation based on best available evidence.

INTRODUCTION: Psychiatric disorders are among the leading causes of disability in Western societies. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are the most frequently prescribed antidepressant drugs during pregnancy and the postpartum period. Over the last decade, conflicting findings regarding the safety of SSRI drugs during pregnancy and lactation have questioned whether such treatments should be used during this period. AREAS COVERED: We discuss the main criteria that should be considered in the risk/benefit assessment of SSRI treatment in pregnant and/or breastfeeding patients (i.e., risks associated with SSRI use and with untreated depression as well as therapeutic benefits of SSRI and some alternative treatment strategies). For each criterion, available evidence has been synthesized and stratified by methodological quality as well as discussed for clinical impact. EXPERT OPINION: Currently, it is impossible for most of the evaluated outcomes to distinguish between the effects related to the mother's underlying disease and those inherent to SSRI treatment. In women suffering from major depression and responding to a pharmacological treatment, introduction or continuation of an SSRI should be encouraged in order to prevent maternal complications and to preserve maternal-infant bonding. The choice of the right drug depends above all on individual patient characteristics such as prior treatment response, diagnoses and comorbid conditions.

Organisational reforms in active welfare states: A comparative analysis of the turn to 'single gateways' in Western Europe

Based on the case of reforms aimed at integrating the provision of income protection and employment services for jobless people in Europe, this thesis seeks to understand the reasons which may prompt governments to engage in large-scale organisational reforms. Over the last 20 years, several European countries have indeed radically redesigned the organisational structure of their welfare state by merging or bundling existing front-line offices in charge of benefit payment and employment services together into 'one-stop' agencies. Whereas in academic and political debates, these reforms are generally presented as a necessary and rational response to the problems and inconsistencies induced by fragmentation in a context of the reorientation of welfare states towards labour market activation, this thesis shows that the agenda setting of these reforms is in fact the result of multidimensional political dynamics. More specifically, the main argument of this thesis is that these reforms are best understood not so such from the problems induced by organisational compartmentalism, whose political recognition is often controversial, but from the various goals that governments may simultaneously achieve by means of their adoption. This argument is tested by comparing agenda-setting processes of large-scale reforms of coordination in the United Kingdom (Jobcentre Plus), Germany (Hartz IV reform) and Denmark (2005 Jobcentre reform), and contrasting them with the Swiss case where the government has so far rejected any coordination initiative involving organisational redesign. This comparison brings to light the importance, for the rise of organisational reforms, of the possibility to couple them with the following three goals: first, goals related to the strengthening of activation policies; second, institutional goals seeking to redefine the balance of responsibilities between the central state and non-state actors, and finally electoral goals for governments eager to maintain political credibility. The decisive role of electoral goals in the three countries suggests that these reforms are less bound by partisan politics than by the particular pressures facing governments arrived in office after long periods in opposition.

Dynamics of turing patterns under spatiotemporal forcing

We study, both theoretically and experimentally, the dynamical response of Turing patterns to a spatiotemporal forcing in the form of a traveling-wave modulation of a control parameter. We show that from strictly spatial resonance, it is possible to induce new, generic dynamical behaviors, including temporally modulated traveling waves and localized traveling solitonlike solutions. The latter make contact with the soliton solutions of Coullet [Phys. Rev. Lett. 56, 724 (1986)] and generalize them. The stability diagram for the different propagating modes in the Lengyel-Epstein model is determined numerically. Direct observations of the predicted solutions in experiments carried out with light modulations in the photosensitive chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction are also reported.

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Dynamics of Highway Bridges, HR-67, 1961

The AASHO specifications for highway bridges require that in designing a bridge, the live load must be multiplied by an impact factor for which a formula is given, dependent only upon the length of the bridge. This formula is a result of August Wohler's tests on fatigue in metals, in which he determined that metals which are subjected to large alternating loads will ultimately fail at lower stresses than those which are subjected only to continuous static loads. It is felt by some investigators that this present impact factor is not realistic, and it is suggested that a consideration of the increased stress due to vibrations caused by vehicles traversing the span would result in a more realistic impact factor than now exists. Since the current highway program requires a large number of bridges to be built, the need for data on dynamic behavior of bridges is apparent. Much excellent material has already been gathered on the subject, but many questions remain unanswered. This work is designed to investigate further a specific corner of that subject, and it is hoped that some useful light may be shed on the subject. Specifically this study hopes to correlate, by experiment on a small scale test bridge, the upper limits of impact utilizing a stationary, oscillating load to represent axle loads moving past a given point. The experiments were performed on a small scale bridge which is located in the basement of the Iowa Engineering Experiment Station. The bridge is a 25 foot simply supported span, 10 feet wide, supported by four beams with a composite concrete slab. It is assumed that the magnitude of the predominant forcing function is the same as the magnitude of the dynamic force produced by a smoothly rolling load, which has a frequency determined by the passage of axles. The frequency of passage of axles is defined as the speed of the vehicle divided by the axle spacing. Factors affecting the response of the bridge to this forcing function are the bridge stiffness and mass, which determine the natural frequency, and the effects of solid damping due to internal structural energy dissipation.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients.

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Short-time dynamics of colloidal suspensions in confined geometries

We analyze the short-time dynamical behavior of a colloidal suspension in a confined geometry. We analyze the relevant dynamical response of the solvent, and derive the temporal behavior of the velocity autocorrelation function, which exhibits an asymptotic negative algebraic decay. We are able to compare quantitatively with theoretical expressions, and analyze the effects of confinement on the diffusive behavior of the suspension.

Horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex dynamics in acute vestibular neuritis and viral labyrinthitis: evidence of otolith-canal interaction.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the dynamic properties of the horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (h-VOR) in the acute stage of two common labyrinthine diseases that provoke severe attacks of vertigo with spontaneous nystagmus: vestibular neuritis (vestibular loss alone) and viral labyrinthitis (cochleovestibular loss). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixty-three patients were investigated: 42 were diagnosed with vestibular neuritis and 21 with viral labyrinthitis. The h-VOR function was evaluated by conventional caloric and impulsive testing. A simplified model of vestibular function was used to analyze the vestibulo-ocular response to rotational stimulation. RESULTS: The results showed a significant difference in h-VOR characteristics between the two pathologies. Patients with vestibular neuritis exhibited a strong horizontal semicircular canal deficit, but no h-VOR asymmetry between the two rotational directions. In contrast, patients with viral labyrinthitis demonstrated moderate canal paresis and a marked h-VOR deficit in rotation toward the affected ear. CONCLUSION: These findings support the hypothesis that the h-VOR dynamic asymmetry that occurs after an acute unilateral inner ear lesion is not due to canal dysfunction alone, but involves complex adaptive changes in the central VOR that may implicate the otolith system. Based on histopathologic and clinical differences in the two pathologies reported in the literature, we postulate that this otolith-canal interaction is mainly linked to the loss of saccular function.

IFN Stimulated Gene Expression in the Liver is a Better Predictor of Treatment Response in Chronic Hepatitis C than the IL28B (IFN lambda 3) Genotype

BACKGROUND: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNα/ribavirin achieves a sustained virologic response (SVR) in ∼55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated with non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. METHODS: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. CONCLUSIONS: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

On the diurnal soil water content dynamics during evaporation using dielectric methods

The water content dynamics in the upper soil surface during evaporation is a key element in land-atmosphere exchanges. Previous experimental studies have suggested that the soil water content increases at the depth of 5 to 15 cm below the soil surface during evapo- ration, while the layer in the immediate vicinity of the soil surface is drying. In this study, the dynamics of water content profiles exposed to solar radiative forcing was monitored at a high temporal resolution using dielectric methods both in the presence and absence of evaporation. A 4-d comparison of reported moisture content in coarse sand in covered and uncovered buckets using a commercial dielectric-based probe (70 MHz ECH2O-5TE, Decagon Devices, Pullman, WA) and the standard 1-GHz time domain reflectometry method. Both sensors reported a positive correlation between temperature and water content in the 5- to 10-cm depth, most pronounced in the morning during heating and in the afternoon during cooling. Such positive correlation might have a physical origin induced by evaporation at the surface and redistribution due to liquid water fluxes resulting from the temperature- gradient dynamics within the sand profile at those depths. Our experimental data suggest that the combined effect of surface evaporation and temperature-gradient dynamics should be considered to analyze experimental soil water profiles. Additional effects related to the frequency of operation and to protocols for temperature compensation of the dielectric sensors may also affect the probes' response during large temperature changes.

Dynamics of Highway Bridges, Iowa Highway Research Board Bulletin 17, 1960

Joint Publications from Iowa Engineering Experiment Station - Bulletin No. 188 and Iowa Highway Research Board - Bulletin No. 17. In the design of highway bridges, the 'static live load is multiplied by a factor to compensate for the dynamic effect of moving vehicles. This factor, commonly referred to as an impact factor, is intended to provide for the dynamic response of the bridge to moving loads and suddenly applied forces. Many investigators have published research which contradicts the current impact formula 1,4,17. Some investigators feel that the problem of impact deals not only with the increase in over-all static live load but that it is an integral part of a dynamic load distribution problem. The current expanded highway program with the large number of bridge structures required emphasizes the need for investigating some of the dynamic behavior problems which have been generally ignored by highway engineers. These problems generally result from the inability of a designer to predict the dynamic response of a bridge structure. Many different investigations have been made of particular portions of the overall dynamic problem. The results of these varied investigations are inevitably followed by a number of unanswered questions. Ironically, many of the unanswered questions are those which are of immediate concern in the design of highway bridges, and this emphasizes the need for additional research on the problem of impact.

Generalized synchronization in directionally coupled systems with identical individual dynamics

A simple chaotic flow is presented, which when driven by an identical copy of itself, for certain initial conditions, is able to display generalized synchronization instead of identical synchronization. Being that the drive and the response are observed in exactly the same coordinate system, generalized synchronization is demonstrated by means of the auxiliary system approach and by the conditional Lyapunov spectrum. This is interpreted in terms of changes in the structure of the system stationary points, caused by the coupling, which modify its global behavior.