A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Uncertainty and Speculators in an Auction for Emissions Permits

Auctions have become popular as means of allocating emissions permits in the emissions trading schemes developed around the world. Mostly, only a subset of the regulated polluters participate in these auctions along with speculators, creating a market with relatively few participants and, thus, incentive for strategic bidding. I characterize the bidding behavior of the polluters and the speculators, examining the effect of the latter on the profits of the former and on the auction outcome. It turns out that in addition to bidding for compliance, polluters also bid for speculation in the aftermarket. While the presence of the speculators forces the polluters to bid closer to their true valuations, it also creates a trade-off between increasing the revenue accrued to the regulator and reducing the profits of the auction-participating polluters. Nevertheless, the profits of the latter increase in the speculators' risk aversion.

Avaliação diagnóstica e seu impacto na aprendizagem

Cada vez mais as escolas de governo assumem uma posição estratégica apoiando o Estado no aperfeiçoamento dos servidores públicos e dos serviços prestados por eles. A questão qualitativa que perpassa a atuação dessas escolas deve ser atentamente discutida por conta dessas implicações. Por isso, nesse cenário, buscou-se realizar um estudo de caso na Escola Nacional de Administração Pública - ENAP, escola de governo localizada em Brasília - Brasil. O objetivo geral da investigação foi verificar se a utilização da avaliação diagnóstica nos processos de avaliação dos cursos de formação e aperfeiçoamento da área de administração pública oferecidos pela Escola potencializa o grau de aprendizagem discente. Para levantar essa resposta e sua relação com o processo de ensino-aprendizagem, o público alvo escolhido foi a turma de dezembro/2015 do curso Fundamentos do Pregão Eletrônico. A partir da aplicação de uma avaliação diagnóstica junto aos alunos do curso, foi possível levantar dados importantes sobre as práticas pedagógicas e a estrutura do curso. Dos aspectos positivos, é possível ressaltar que a ênfase prática do curso confirmou-se de forma eficaz nas avaliações, até mesmo pelo perfil levantado dos alunos, contudo, um dos pontos frágeis que mais chamou a atenção durante a pesquisa foi o aspecto do cumprimento dos objetivos de aprendizagem. A avaliação diagnóstica revelou que metade da turma não se sentia apta as competências propostas pela ENAP. Ao final, foi possível confirmar a importância da avaliação diagnóstica como instrumento de avaliação e construção do conhecimento, propondo-se a sua implantação no curso Fundamentos do Pregão Eletrônico e, além de outras recomendações, a formação de uma cultura avaliativa na escola baseada na reflexão e na ação estratégica, que da mesma forma que um escultor, vai lapidando o processo educacional. O tema não finda com a obtenção e análise dos dados apresentados na pesquisa mas traz contribuições relevantes para a comunidade científica e poderá ainda, ser material importante para estudos futuros na área da excelência da Gestão Pública relacionada às escolas de governo.

Language-based Techniques for Practical and Trustworthy Secure Multi-party Computations

Secure Multi-party Computation (MPC) enables a set of parties to collaboratively compute, using cryptographic protocols, a function over their private data in a way that the participants do not see each other's data, they only see the final output. Typical MPC examples include statistical computations over joint private data, private set intersection, and auctions. While these applications are examples of monolithic MPC, richer MPC applications move between "normal" (i.e., per-party local) and "secure" (i.e., joint, multi-party secure) modes repeatedly, resulting overall in mixed-mode computations. For example, we might use MPC to implement the role of the dealer in a game of mental poker -- the game will be divided into rounds of local decision-making (e.g. bidding) and joint interaction (e.g. dealing). Mixed-mode computations are also used to improve performance over monolithic secure computations. Starting with the Fairplay project, several MPC frameworks have been proposed in the last decade to help programmers write MPC applications in a high-level language, while the toolchain manages the low-level details. However, these frameworks are either not expressive enough to allow writing mixed-mode applications or lack formal specification, and reasoning capabilities, thereby diminishing the parties' trust in such tools, and the programs written using them. Furthermore, none of the frameworks provides a verified toolchain to run the MPC programs, leaving the potential of security holes that can compromise the privacy of parties' data. This dissertation presents language-based techniques to make MPC more practical and trustworthy. First, it presents the design and implementation of a new MPC Domain Specific Language, called Wysteria, for writing rich mixed-mode MPC applications. Wysteria provides several benefits over previous languages, including a conceptual single thread of control, generic support for more than two parties, high-level abstractions for secret shares, and a fully formalized type system and operational semantics. Using Wysteria, we have implemented several MPC applications, including, for the first time, a card dealing application. The dissertation next presents Wys*, an embedding of Wysteria in F*, a full-featured verification oriented programming language. Wys* improves on Wysteria along three lines: (a) It enables programmers to formally verify the correctness and security properties of their programs. As far as we know, Wys* is the first language to provide verification capabilities for MPC programs. (b) It provides a partially verified toolchain to run MPC programs, and finally (c) It enables the MPC programs to use, with no extra effort, standard language constructs from the host language F*, thereby making it more usable and scalable. Finally, the dissertation develops static analyses that help optimize monolithic MPC programs into mixed-mode MPC programs, while providing similar privacy guarantees as the monolithic versions.

RAIMOUEST : la pêcherie française de raies dans le golfe normand-breton

The landing ban of Raja undulata has raised misunderstanding for French fishermen, particularly for those fishing in the Norman‐Breton gulf (Southeast of ICES Division VIIe) where this species is very abundant. In this context, the RAIMOUEST project was launched as a professional and scientist partnership in order to enhance fisheries data on the main ray species caught in the Norman-Breton Gulf (Raja undulata, Raja brachyura, Raja clavata, Raja montagui and Raja microocellata). The French ray fisheries fleet was identified and a sample of fishermen involved in rays fishing was interviewed. Landings and effort data (logbooks), auctions sales and sampling at sea aboard professional fishing vessels were analysed. This working document presents the current results of this study. The French fleet concerned by ray fishing in the Normand-Breton Gulf in 2012 was composed of 289 vessels, mainly coastal trawlers/dredgers and small length size netters and longliners. R. undulata is the main ray species in this area. This species seems to form a local stock in the Normand-Breton Gulf with some continuity in the Eastern English Channel and the Western part of the Western English Channel. Three ways of analysis were used to provide an indicative level of R. undulata stock: French landings before 2009 were estimated at least at 300 tons in the Western English Channel (VIIe) and 160 tons in the Normand-Breton Gulf; sales at auctions of the Basse-Normandie fleet before 2009 were estimated at 235 tons in the western English Channel and 35 tons in the eastern English Channel (VIId); discards by the French bottom trawl fleet in ICES Division VIIe in 2012 and 2013 were estimated at 750 tons. Information on the spatial distribution of the other ray species in the English Channel was also provided. The coastal localisation of nursery for R. undulata and R. clavata was highlighted.

Provable Security for Cryptocurrencies

The past several years have seen the surprising and rapid rise of Bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies.” These are decentralized peer-to-peer networks that allow users to transmit money, tocompose financial instruments, and to enforce contracts between mutually distrusting peers, andthat show great promise as a foundation for financial infrastructure that is more robust, efficientand equitable than ours today. However, it is difficult to reason about the security of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is a complex system, comprising many intricate and subtly-interacting protocol layers. At each layer it features design innovations that (prior to our work) have not undergone any rigorous analysis. Compounding the challenge, Bitcoin is but one of hundreds of competing cryptocurrencies in an ecosystem that is constantly evolving. The goal of this thesis is to formally reason about the security of cryptocurrencies, reining in their complexity, and providing well-defined and justified statements of their guarantees. We provide a formal specification and construction for each layer of an abstract cryptocurrency protocol, and prove that our constructions satisfy their specifications. The contributions of this thesis are centered around two new abstractions: “scratch-off puzzles,” and the “blockchain functionality” model. Scratch-off puzzles are a generalization of the Bitcoin “mining” algorithm, its most iconic and novel design feature. We show how to provide secure upgrades to a cryptocurrency by instantiating the protocol with alternative puzzle schemes. We construct secure puzzles that address important and well-known challenges facing Bitcoin today, including wasted energy and dangerous coalitions. The blockchain functionality is a general-purpose model of a cryptocurrency rooted in the “Universal Composability” cryptography theory. We use this model to express a wide range of applications, including transparent “smart contracts” (like those featured in Bitcoin and Ethereum), and also privacy-preserving applications like sealed-bid auctions. We also construct a new protocol compiler, called Hawk, which translates user-provided specifications into privacy-preserving protocols based on zero-knowledge proofs.

Essays on Matching Markets and Their Equilibria

Matching theory and matching markets are a core component of modern economic theory and market design. This dissertation presents three original contributions to this area. The first essay constructs a matching mechanism in an incomplete information matching market in which the positive assortative match is the unique efficient and unique stable match. The mechanism asks each agent in the matching market to reveal her privately known type. Through its novel payment rule, truthful revelation forms an ex post Nash equilibrium in this setting. This mechanism works in one-, two- and many-sided matching markets, thus offering the first mechanism to unify these matching markets under a single mechanism design framework. The second essay confronts a problem of matching in an environment in which no efficient and incentive compatible matching mechanism exists due to matching externalities. I develop a two-stage matching game in which a contracting stage facilitates subsequent conditionally efficient and incentive compatible Vickrey auction stage. Infinite repetition of this two-stage matching game enforces the contract in every period. This mechanism produces inequitably distributed social improvement: parties to the contract receive all of the gains and then some. The final essay demonstrates the existence of prices which stably and efficiently partition a single set of agents into firms and workers, and match those two sets to each other. This pricing system extends Kelso and Crawford's general equilibrium results in a labor market matching model and links one- and two-sided matching markets as well.