Approximation of photonic crystal fibres with large air holes by the step index fibre model

An equivalent step index fibre with a silica core and air cladding is used to model photonic crystal fibres with large air holes. We model this fibre for linear polarisation (we focus on the lowest few transverse modes of the electromagnetic field). The equivalent step index radius is obtained by equating the lowest two eigenvalues of the model to those calculated numerically for the photonic crystal fibres. The step index parameters thus obtained can then be used to calculate nonlinear parameters like the nonlinear effective area of a photonic crystal fibre or to model nonlinear few-mode interactions using an existing model.

Development and testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A composite indicator to measure social vulnerability in the Jamaican elderly population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Development and evaluation of a geographic information system based method to estimate flooding susceptibility in an area of Broward County, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a GIS-based multi-class index overlay model to determine areas susceptible to inland flooding during extreme precipitation events in Broward County, Florida. Data layers used in the method include Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) elevation data, excess precipitation depth determined through performing a Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN) analysis, and the slope of the terrain. The method includes a calibration procedure that uses "weights and scores" criteria obtained from Hurricane Irene (1999) records, a reported 100-year precipitation event, Doppler radar data and documented flooding locations. Results are displayed in maps of Eastern Broward County depicting types of flooding scenarios for a 100-year, 24-hour storm based on the soil saturation conditions. As expected the results of the multi-class index overlay analysis showed that an increase for the potential of inland flooding could be expected when a higher antecedent moisture condition is experienced. The proposed method proves to have some potential as a predictive tool for flooding susceptibility based on a relatively simple approach.

Labor turnover : its causes, consequences, and control strategy in five selected restaurants in the Miami area

The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the basic causes of food service employee turnover in five selected restaurants in the Miami area. The withdrawal behavior in this study is treated in terms of controllable turnover, for the purpose of management, learning more about what action to take to solve this problem which has eaten into the fabric of the hospitality industry. The aim is to find out from the food service employees and management view of work for the purpose of identifying the variables which cause an employee to voluntarily leave a job. The objective is therefore, to analyze and describe the problem of labor turnover in these selected restaurants. Such description must precede efforts to arrive at solutions to the problem if these efforts are ever to be more than haphazard and superficial. Sigmund Freud once stated: "The true beginning of scientific activity consists in describing phenomena and only then in proceeding to group, classify and correlate them."1 The nature of the study is basically descriptive survey. Data is collected by the use of management questionnaire, food service employee questionnaire and finally employees job description index. The survey consisted of a series of well defined questions with open and closed endings dealing with employee with employee turnover. As Robert Ferber and P. J. Verdoom state in their book titled Research Method in Economics of Business: "Structured questionnaires, by supplying question formulations in very specific terms as well as the different possible answers are easier for the sample members to answer and also serve to reduce the danger of interviewer bias."2 The answers to the prepared questionnaire by sample members were then recorded. The results of the questionnaire responses were then compiled for presentation and analysis. 1 Julian Simon, Basic Research Methods in Social Science. Random House, New York, 1969, p.53. 2 Robert J. Ferber and P.J. Verdoon, Research Methods in Economics and Business, The McMillan Company, 1962, p. 20 9 .

Regional flood frequency analysis for Newfoundland and Labrador using the L-Moments index-flood method

The L-moments based index-flood procedure had been successfully applied for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) for the Island of Newfoundland in 2002 using data up to 1998. This thesis, however, considered both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland using the L-Moments index-flood method with flood data up to 2013. For Labrador, the homogeneity test showed that Labrador can be treated as a single homogeneous region and the generalized extreme value (GEV) was found to be more robust than any other frequency distributions. The drainage area (DA) is the only significant variable for estimating the index-flood at ungauged sites in Labrador. In previous studies, the Island of Newfoundland has been considered as four homogeneous regions (A,B,C and D) as well as two Water Survey of Canada's Y and Z sub-regions. Homogeneous regions based on Y and Z was found to provide more accurate quantile estimates than those based on four homogeneous regions. Goodness-of-fit test results showed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is most suitable for the sub-regions; however, the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) gave a better performance in terms of robustness. The best fitting regional frequency distribution from 2002 has now been updated with the latest flood data, but quantile estimates with the new data were not very different from the previous study. Overall, in terms of quantile estimation, in both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland, the index-flood procedure based on L-moments is highly recommended as it provided consistent and more accurate result than other techniques such as the regression on quantile technique that is currently used by the government.

Surface temperature reconstruction using alkenones from sediment core B0406 retreived in the Peru upwelling area

We reconstructed a high-resolution, alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) record spanning the last ca. 150 years, from a sediment core retrieved within the main upwelling zone off Peru. A conspicuous SST decline is evidenced since the 1950s despite interdecadal SST variability. Instrumental SST data and reanalysis of ECMWF ERA 40 winds suggest that the recent coastal cooling corresponds mainly to an intensification of alongshore winds and associated increase of upwelling in spring. Consistently, both proxy and instrumental data evidence increased productivity in phase with the SST cooling. Our data expand on previous reports on recent SST cooling in other Eastern Boundary upwelling systems and support scenarios that relate coastal upwelling intensification to global warming. Yet, further investigations are needed to assess the role of different mechanisms and forcings (enhanced local winds vs. spin-up of the South Pacific High Pressure cell).

(Table 1) Foraminifera weight, size index and CO3 concentrations of core top sediments

Down water column traverses of core top weights for three planktonic species confirm Lohmann's (1995) relationship between foraminifera shell weight loss and bottom water carbonate ion content. However, they also suggest that the initial shell thickness varies with growth habitat and that the offset between bottom water and pore water carbonate ion concentration varies even on small space scales.

Development and Testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A Composite Indicator to Measure Social Vulnerability in the Jamaican Elderly Population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Monthly values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index from 1821 to 2000

Early instrumental pressure measurements from Gibraltar and the Reykjavik area of Iceland have been used to extend to 1821 the homogeneous pressure series at the two locations. In winter the two sites are located close to the centres of action that comprise the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extended 'winter half-year' record of the NAO enables recent changes in the record to be placed in the context of the period 1823-1996. The period since the early 1970s is the most prolonged positive phase of the oscillation and the late 1980s and early 1990s is the period with the highest values (strongest westerlies). The winter of 1995-1996 marked a dramatic switch in the index, with the change from 1994-1995 being the greatest change recorded from one year to the next since the series began in 1823. (The extended Gibraltar and Reykjavik monthly pressures and the NAO series can be found on the Climatic Research Unit home page, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/).

Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

Permafrost Favorability Index Map (PFI) for the Chilean Semi-Arid Andes

The Permafrost Favorability Index (PFI) map for the Chilean Semi-Arid Andes (29°S-32°S) indicates where permafrost is likely to occur (resolution 30 m x 30 m). The predicted favorability of permafrost occurrence ranges between 0 and 1, where high PFI values indicate most favorable environmental conditions for permafrost existence and low values indicates that permafrost will be present in exceptional circumstances with favorable local conditions. Conditions highly favorable to permafrost presence (PFI > 0.75) are predicted for 1051 km² of mountain terrain, or 2.7 % of the total area of the watersheds studied. Favorable conditions are expected to occur in 2636 km², or 6.8% of the area. Especially the Elqui and Huasco watersheds in the northern half of the study area where a substantial surface portion (11.8 % each) was considered to be favorable for permafrost presence, while predicted favorable areas in the southern Limarí and Choapa watersheds are mostly limited to specific sub-watersheds.

Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

Calcite saturation and dissolution index of core-top sediment samples from the Ontong Java Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Caribbean and the Ceara Rise, the Indian Ocean, the Ninety-East Ridge and from the east of Madagascar

X-ray computed tomography (CT) provides an insight into the progression of dissolution in the tests of planktonic foraminifera. Four species of foraminifera (G. ruber [white], G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata) from Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean core-top samples were examined by CT and SEM. Inner chamber walls began to dissolve at Delta[CO3**2-] values of 12-14 µmol/kg. Close to the calcite saturation horizon, dissolution and precipitation of calcite may occur simultaneously. Inner calcite of G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata from such sites appeared altered or replaced, whereas outer crust calcite was dense with no pores. Unlike the other species, there was no distinction between inner and outer calcite in CT scans of G. ruber. Empty calcite crusts of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata were most resistant to dissolution and were present in samples where Delta[CO3**2-] ~ -20 µmol/kg. Five stages of preservation were identified in CT scans, and an empirical dissolution index, XDX, was established. XDX appears to be insensitive to initial test mass. Mass loss in response to dissolution was similar between species and sites at ~ 0.4 µg/µmol/kg. We provide calibrations to estimate Delta[CO3**2-] and initial test mass from XDX.

Informal caregiving and mental ill health – differential relationships by workload, gender, age and area-remoteness in a UK region

Informal caregiving can be a demanding role which has been shown to impact on physical, psychological and social wellbeing. Methodological weaknesses including small sample sizes and subjective measures of mental health have led to inconclusive evidence about the relationship between informal caregiving and mental health. This paper reports on a study carried out in a UK region which investigated the relationship between informal caregiving and mental ill health. The analysis was conducted by linking three datasets, the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, the Northern Ireland Enhanced Prescribing Database and the Proximity to Service Index from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Our analysis used both a subjective measure of mental ill health, i.e. a question asked in the 2011 Census, and an objective measure, whether the respondents had been prescribed antidepressants by a General Practitioner between 2010 and 2012. We applied binary logistic multilevel modelling to these two responses to test whether, and for what sub-groups of the population, informal caregiving was related to mental ill health. The results showed that informal caregiving per se was not related to mental ill health although there was a strong relationship between the intensity of the caregiving role and mental ill health. Females under 50, who provided over 19 hours of care, were not employed or worked part-time and who provided care in both 2001 and 2011 were at a statistically significantly elevated risk of mental ill health. Caregivers in remote areas with limited access to shops and services were also at a significantly increased risk as evidenced by prescription rates for antidepressants. With community care policies aimed at supporting people to remain at home, the paper highlights the need for further research in order to target resources appropriately.

Integrating functional connectivity and climate change in the design of protected area networks

Le rapide déclin actuel de la biodiversité est inquiétant et les activités humaines en sont la cause directe. De nombreuses aires protégées ont été mises en place pour contrer cette perte de biodiversité. Afin de maximiser leur efficacité, l’amélioration de la connectivité fonctionnelle entre elles est requise. Les changements climatiques perturbent actuellement les conditions environnementales de façon globale. C’est une menace pour la biodiversité qui n’a pas souvent été intégrée lors de la mise en place des aires protégées, jusqu’à récemment. Le mouvement des espèces, et donc la connectivité fonctionnelle du paysage, est impacté par les changements climatiques et des études ont montré qu’améliorer la connectivité fonctionnelle entre les aires protégées aiderait les espèces à faire face aux impacts des changements climatiques. Ma thèse présente une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées tout en tenant compte des changements climatiques et de la connectivité fonctionnelle. Mon aire d’étude est la région de la Gaspésie au Québec (Canada). La population en voie de disparition de caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique (Rangifer tarandus caribou) a été utilisée comme espèce focale pour définir la connectivité fonctionnelle. Cette petite population subit un déclin continu dû à la prédation et la modification de son habitat, et les changements climatiques pourraient devenir une menace supplémentaire. J’ai d’abord construit un modèle individu-centré spatialement explicite pour expliquer et simuler le mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé les données VHF éparses de la population de caribou et une stratégie de modélisation patron-orienté pour paramétrer et sélectionner la meilleure hypothèse de mouvement. Mon meilleur modèle a reproduit la plupart des patrons de mouvement définis avec les données observées. Ce modèle fournit une meilleure compréhension des moteurs du mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi qu’une estimation spatiale de son utilisation du paysage dans la région. J’ai conclu que les données éparses étaient suffisantes pour ajuster un modèle individu-centré lorsqu’utilisé avec une modélisation patron-orienté. Ensuite, j’ai estimé l’impact des changements climatiques et de différentes actions de conservation sur le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé le modèle individu-centré pour simuler le mouvement du caribou dans des paysages hypothétiques représentant différents scénarios de changements climatiques et d’actions de conservation. Les actions de conservation représentaient la mise en place de nouvelles aires protégées en Gaspésie, comme définies par le scénario proposé par le gouvernement du Québec, ainsi que la restauration de routes secondaires à l’intérieur des aires protégées. Les impacts des changements climatiques sur la végétation, comme définis dans mes scénarios, ont réduit le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. La restauration des routes était capable d’atténuer ces effets négatifs, contrairement à la mise en place des nouvelles aires protégées. Enfin, j’ai présenté une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées efficaces et j’ai proposé des nouvelles aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie afin de protéger la biodiversité sur le long terme. J’ai créé de nombreux scénarios de réseaux d’aires protégées en étendant le réseau actuel pour protéger 12% du territoire. J’ai calculé la représentativité écologique et deux mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme pour chaque réseau. Les mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle représentaient l’accès général aux aires protégées pour le caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique ainsi que son potentiel de mouvement à l’intérieur. J’ai utilisé les estimations de potentiel de mouvement pour la période de temps actuelle ainsi que pour le futur sous différents scénarios de changements climatiques pour représenter la connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme. Le réseau d’aires protégées que j’ai proposé était le scénario qui maximisait le compromis entre les trois caractéristiques de réseau calculées. Dans cette thèse, j’ai expliqué et prédit le mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique sous différentes conditions environnementales, notamment des paysages impactés par les changements climatiques. Ces résultats m’ont aidée à définir un réseau d’aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie pour protéger le caribou au cours du temps. Je crois que cette thèse apporte de nouvelles connaissances sur le comportement de mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi que sur les actions de conservation qui peuvent être prises en Gaspésie afin d’améliorer la protection du caribou et de celle d’autres espèces. Je crois que la méthode présentée peut être applicable à d’autres écosystèmes aux caractéristiques et besoins similaires.