Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Earnings management in firms seeking to be acquired

Empirical evidence regarding accrual-based earnings management around mergers and acquisitions has been setting-specific as far as target firms are concerned. This might be due to the fact that target firms cannot always anticipate an acquisition proposal, and thus lack the motive and the time necessary to manage their earnings in order to facilitate or impede the deal. In this paper, we provide clear evidence of downward earnings management by a sample of target firms that have both time and motive to engage in such actions. These are firms that publicly announce their intention to be acquired. Publicly ‘seeking a buyer’ represents a rather unusual corporate event, and we find that these firms engage in downward earnings management in the years surrounding the ‘announcement year’. To some extent, this result is explained by overrepresentation of low performance and growth among these firms, and it can be interpreted under alternative explanations. Furthermore, we show that such downward earnings management negatively affects the probability for a ‘seeking buyer’ firm to secure an acquisition within a reasonable amount of time, a possible indication of efficient diligence by prospective buyers having a preference for firms ‘seeking buyer’ with no informationally obscure earnings.

Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the impact of accounting quality, used as a proxy for information risk, on the behavior of equity implied volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. Using US data during 1996–2010, we observe that lower (higher) accounting quality significantly relates to higher (lower) levels of implied volatility (IV) around announcements. Worse accounting quality is further associated with a significant increase in IV before announcements, and is found to relate to a larger resolution in IV after the announcement has taken place. We interpret our findings as indicative of information risk having a significant impact on implied volatility behavior around earnings announcements.

Information signalling of common stock repurchase announcements: Australian evidence

Stock repurchases (or share buy-backs) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies. One of the main aims of announcing a stock repurchase by a listed company is signalling the market that its shares are currently underpriced. When market reacts to the signal, price of the shares is expected to increase immediately after the announcement. While there are several ways of repurchasing shares, 'on-market buy-backs' is the most popular method of stock repurchases in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the information signalling effects of these on-market buy-back announcements. If the signal is considered positively (negatively) by the market, the price of the repurchasing company's shares should increase (decrease) immediately after the announcement. If there is no information content in the announcement, the price will remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements was examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements during the period from January 1, 2000 to March 10, 2003 was included. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 9 trading days centred on the announcement date) was computed using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily Abnormal Returns (AR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) during the event period were computed. The results strongly support the information-signalling hypothesis of share buy..backs. Australian market generally considers announcement of on~market share repurchases as signalling of insider information that shares are currently underpriced.

Short-run performance of recent Australian on-market share buy-back announcements

Share buy-backs (or share repurchases) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies during the recent times. One of the aims of share buy-back is to increase the shareholders' wealth by increasing the market price of company shares. While there are several ways of buying backs shares, on-market buy-backs is the most popular method of share repurchase in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the short-run market performance of these recent on-market buy-back announcements.

Short-term effect of on-market buy-back announcements on the share price is an issue, which is theoretically interesting and practically important. Buy-back announcements are believed to convey a signal to the market (i.e., signalling effect). If the market considers this signal positively, the short-run price of the shares would increase. If the signal were considered negatively, the short-run price of shares would decrease. If there is no signalling content or the signal is neutral the price would remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements is empirically examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements that have been lodged with Australian Stock Exchange by Australian listed companies during the period from 1 January 2000 to 10 March 2003 are included in this study. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 10 trading days centred on the announcement date) is examined using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the event period are computed. The results indicate that the Australian market generally positively reacts to on-market buy-back announcements.

Merger announcements and insider trading activity in India: an empirical investigation

Insider trading activity is investigated prior to merger announcement in Indian capital market. An attempt is made to check it out whether trading takes place on the basis of asymmetric and private information. For examining the behaviour of stock prices a modified market model is used to estimate the parameters for the estimation window. These estimates are used to compute average return and cumulative average returns for the event window, which are measures of abnormal returns. Besides price run-ups, it is also common to see unusually high levels of share trading volume before public announcement of merger. Daily trading volume pattern of the target companies is also investigated. The analysis carried out in this study is based on a sample of 42 companies for which merger announcement date was announced during the period of 1996-1999. Based on the analysis for each company individually, we recommend investigation in six companies for existence of possible insider trading.

Bibby Levine Alfond Scrapbook

Dorothy "Bibby" Adair Levine was born to William and Sarah Ida Levine on April 16, 1916 and died December 31, 2005. The scrapbook contains family memories, eulogy, newspaper clippings, photographs, and announcement of the birth of her son Michael.

Frieda Levine Miller Scrapbook

Frieda Levine Miller was born to William and Sarah Ida Levine on March 26, 1896 and died August 24, 1990. The scrapbook contains family memories, death certificate, eulogies, newspaper clippings, family photographs, a high school graduation program, letters, and announcement of the marriage of her daughter Glenyce.

"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

The Index Effect: an investigation of the price and volume effects surrounding changes to the S & P Australian indices

This paper examines the stock price and volume effects surrounding the announcement of constituent changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and four supplementary indices. Between April 2000 and December 2002 additions to (deletions from) the ASX 200 were associated with a significant price rise (fall) over the 10 day period following the market announcement of the change. Deletions were also associated with a significant fall on the announcement date itself These findings were corroborated by significant increases in trading volume over the same intervals, suggesting heavy trading activity by index funds in response to changes to the ASX 200. Following the implementation of these changes, both additions and deletions experienced a significant price reversion, supporting the price pressure hypothesis. By contrast, none of the supplementary indices displayed evidence of stock price or volume effects, which precludes the information and liquidity hypotheses as viable explanations for the findings of this research.

Information leakage and informed trading around unscheduled earnings announcements

While there has been much judicial discussion regarding the competency of Australia's continuous disclosure regime with reference to contemporaneous international standards, there has to date been limited empirical analysis of the Australian system's effectiveness in preventing selective disclosure and information leakage. This paper presents an empirical study of information content and trading behaviour around unscheduled earnings announcements - comprising of profit upgrades, profit warnings and neutral trading statements - made by ASX-listed companies during 2004. The contention is that informed trading impacts on the stock returns and trading volumes of listed entities, and hence abnormal returns or trading volumes observed prior to an announcement provide evidence of information leakage. The paper models a range of factors that potentially influence firm disclosure practices and contribute to the level information asymmetry in the market during the pre- announcement period. Previous research has investigated the influence of firm size and information content in contributing to information leakage. This study further considers the variables of firm growth, capital structure and industry group.

Climate change and social inclusion: opportunities for justice and empowerment

...the greatest untapped resource at our disposal lies in the disadvantaged Australians living in our most excluded communities. (Nicholson 2007 p. 4)

The commons are where justice and sustainability converge, where ecology and equity meet. (Shiva 2005 p. 50)

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognised human induced climate change to be primarily a result of burning fossil fuels and land clearing (Lee 2007). Changes to the world's climate patterns have been occurring for decades, but only in recent times has climate change arrived in our collective conscious. An onslaught of extreme weather events, destruction and failure of crops, increasing levels of water restrictions, government announcement of desalination plants. proposed increase in prices for utilities such as power and water - have ushered climate change into the Australian lexicon.

The challenges for all of us are many and varied and perhaps even unimaginable. as many propose a global reduction in annual C02 emissions of between 60-80% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2050.

We are not talking just about the re-construction of our world, but about its re-invention. Ryan (2007)

How will climate change affect us? Who is most vulnerable? What will be the features of policies and strategies to combat climate change that ensure an equitable and just response across our entire society? Are our present social-cultural justice paradigms of social exclusion and inclusion adequate in addressing the impending health consequences that are likely to result from climate change, and in supporting an equitable. harmonious and fruitful life for all population groups in the future?

This paper, written in the spirit of solution-oriented research. focusing on the causes of positive health rather than the causes of disease and other problems (Robinson & Sirard 2005). explores the possibility of a paradigm shift which imagines the social inclusion of specific population groups, not as an appended extra, but integral to the design of an equitable, sustainable low carbon society of the future.

The evolution of the temporary protection visa regime in Australia

While the Temporary Protection Visa (TPV) regime was formally introduced in October 1999 by the Howard Government, the concept of temporary protection was not totally alien to the Australian humanitarian landscape. Earlier examples reflected a standard use of temporary protection as a complementary or interim protection mechanism, offering short-term group-based protection where individual assessment under the 1951 Convention was both impractical and untimely. This paper focuses on the wider and more controversial changes in the use of temporary protection mechanisms that were to follow with the introduction of the TPV in 1999, which offered substitute protection for individually assessed Convention refugees who had arrived onshore without valid travel documents. It examines the history and evolution of the TPV policy regime from 1999 to the announcement of its abolition in 2008, arguing that the introduction and subsequent development of the policy may be understood as a product of a conservative, exclusionist political climate in Australia, following the unprecedented impact of the populist One Nation party in 1998, and later, the impact of September 11th. It also examines later amendments to the regime as a response to growing domestic disquiet about the impacts of the policy, and the abolition of the TPV policy under a new Australian government elected in late 2007.

Marketing-China and getting it right

China has become a synonym for future business growth. It is the business nirvana of the 21st century. It is the place to be. Companies are scrambling to get a share of the action. Not a day passes without some company making an announcement of an investment in their future which involves China.

What factors drive takeovers in Australia?

We examine the relationships between the wealth changes associated with a takeover announcement to distinguish between three major competing motives—synergy, hubris, and agency. Empirical tests indicate that the synergy motive is the predominant explanation for the majority of takeovers in Australia; however, the evidence is consistent with the simultaneous presence of hubris in value-creating takeovers. The evidence also suggests agency, not hubris, is the primary motivation for the takeovers which result in value destruction.