Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

An examination of the factors contributing to unlicensed driving. Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

Unlicensed driving is a serious problem in many countries, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. Unlike alcohol impairment and speeding, unlicensed driving does not play a direct causative role in road crashes. However it represents a major problem for road safety in two respects. Firstly, it undermines the effectiveness of driver licensing systems by preventing the allocation of demerit points and reducing the impact of licence loss (Watson, 2004b). Secondly, there is a growing body of evidence linking unlicensed driving to a cluster of high-risk behaviours including drink driving, speeding, failure to wear seat belts and motorcycle use (Griffin & DeLaZerda, 2000; Harrison, 1997; Watson, 1997, 2004b). Consistent with this, utilising the quasi-induced exposure method, Watson (2004a) estimated that in Queensland, unlicensed drivers were almost three times more likely to be involved in a reported crash than licensed drivers.

Distributed computing of all-to-all comparison problems in heterogeneous systems

The requirement of distributed computing of all-to-all comparison (ATAC) problems in heterogeneous systems is increasingly important in various domains. Though Hadoop-based solutions are widely used, they are inefficient for the ATAC pattern, which is fundamentally different from the MapReduce pattern for which Hadoop is designed. They exhibit poor data locality and unbalanced allocation of comparison tasks, particularly in heterogeneous systems. The results in massive data movement at runtime and ineffective utilization of computing resources, affecting the overall computing performance significantly. To address these problems, a scalable and efficient data and task distribution strategy is presented in this paper for processing large-scale ATAC problems in heterogeneous systems. It not only saves storage space but also achieves load balancing and good data locality for all comparison tasks. Experiments of bioinformatics examples show that about 89\% of the ideal performance capacity of the multiple machines have be achieved through using the approach presented in this paper.

The Australian litigation landscape - Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery and general dentistry (oral surgery procedures): An analysis of litigation cases

Background: There are persistent concerns about litigation in the dental and medical professions. These concerns arise in a setting where general dentists are more frequently undertaking a wider range of oral surgery procedures, potentially increasing legal risk. Methods: Judicial cases dealing with medical negligence in the fields of general dentistry (oral surgery procedure) and Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery were located using the three main legal databases. Relevant cases were analysed to determine the procedures involved, the patients’ claims of injury, findings of negligence, and damages awarded. A thematic analysis of the cases was undertaken to determine trends. Results: Fifteen cases over a twenty-year period were located across almost all Australian jurisdictions (eight cases involved general dentists; seven cases involved Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons). Eleven of the fifteen cases involved determinations of whether or not the practitioner had failed in their duty of care; negligence was found in six cases. Eleven of the fifteen cases related to molar extractions (eight specifically to third molar). Conclusions: Dental and medical practitioners wanting to manage legal risk should have regard to circumstances arising in judicial cases. Adequate warning of risks is critical, as is offering referral in appropriate cases. Pre-operative radiographs, good medical records, and processes to ensure appropriate follow-up are also important.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Monitoring substance use in prisons: Assessing the potential value of wastewater analysis

Prison substance use is a major concern for prison authorities and the wider community. Australia has responded to this problem by implementing the National Corrections Drug Strategy. Across Australia, the true extent of prison substance use cannot be determined. As a result, the effectiveness of the interventions employed as part of this strategy cannot be properly assessed. This has important implications for the allocation of corrective services resources and future policy development. This article explores the benefits and limitations, as well as the ethical and practical issues in using wastewater analysis (WWA) to measure levels of substance use in prisons. It reports results from the first application of WWA to an Australian prison, which supports the use of WWA in this context. Given the increasing concern for prescription misuse in prisons, we also highlight the novel use of WWA to measure the extent of prescription misuse by prisoners. The article concludes that as a result of its objectivity, sensitivity and cost-effectiveness, the use of WWA in prisons warrants further consideration in Australia.

Support services for higher degree research students: A survey of three Australian universities

A survey was conducted across three Australian universities to identify the types and format of support services available for higher degree research (HDR, or MA and Ph.D.) students. The services were classified with regards to availability, location and accessibility. A comparative tool was developed to help institutions categorise their services in terms of academic, administrative, social and settlement, language and miscellaneous (other) supports. All three universities showed similarities in the type of academic support services offered, while differing in social and settlement and language support services in terms of the location and the level of accessibility of these services. The study also examined the specific support services available for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) students. The three universities differed in their emphases in catering to CALD needs, with their allocation of resources reflecting these differences. The organisation of these services within the universities was further assessed to determine possible factors that may influence the effective delivery of these services, by considering HDR and CALD student specific issues. The findings and tools developed by this study may be useful to HDR supervisors and university administrators in identifying key support services to better improve outcomes for the HDR students and universities.

Characterisation, toxicity and source apportionment of atmospheric organic pollutants in urban schools

Airborne organic pollutants have significant impacts on health; however their sources, atmospheric characteristics and resulting human exposures are poorly understood. This research characterized chemical composition of atmospheric volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and carbonyls in representative number of primary schools in Brisbane Metropolitan Area, quantified their concentrations, assessed their toxicity and apportioned them to their sources. The findings expand scientific knowledge of these pollutants, and will contribute towards science based management of risks associated with pollution emissions and air quality in schools and other urban and indoor environments.

The changing face of conveyancing responsibility

In this note the authors examine two cases, one from Australia, the other from New Zealand, both of which explore the responsibility of legal practitioners engaged as professionals in the buying and selling of land. What is shown is that the allocation of risk and responsibility is constantly under scrutiny for those involved in the conveyancing process, something which the nascent Australian electronic conveyancing protocols will only heighten.

Uzbekistan Supplementary NGO Report on the Implementation of the Convention on the Rights of the Child in the Republic of Uzbekistan

[Excerpt] The Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) was one of the first international instruments to which the Republic of Uzbekistan acceded, and with parliamentary ratification on 9 December 1992, the Republic of Uzbekistan entered into a commitment to observe all the provisions of the CRC and to shoulder its responsibility before the international community. As a result various legislative, administrative and other steps have been taken by the government of the Republic of Uzbekistan with a view to bringing the State policy and legislation on children to be in line with the provisions as enshrined in the Convention on the Rights of the Child. The Constitution incorporates the fundamental provisions of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. At the current stage in the restructuring of the country’s social and economic development, solid foundations have been laid for the conduct of significant democratic reforms based on a recognition of the innate worth of the individual (including the child) and of the unconditional respect of his or her rights and freedoms. Until recently, the State acted as the main guarantor of the provision of all social services, however the process of the transition (political/economic) to a market economy has entailed the development of new economic relations with a reduction in the allocation of state resources for the provision of social services to children. The efforts of the government made so far to bring the state policy and legislation on the child to be in line with the provisions enshrined in the convention on the rights of the child are commendable; never the less, the implementations of all these policies and laws into practice needs a lot to desire as there are a number of ongoing child rights violations. The National Report has fundamentally overlooked a number of child rights privileges enshrined in the CRC that have not yet been realised, or those rights that have been eroded since the independence. These shortcomings need to be noted for consideration so that the state steps up its efforts to enact new laws and/or to enforce the existing rules and regulations required for the protection and implementation of these child rights, and to improve the overall situation for children in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Routine Measurement of Health-Related Quality of Life in Assessing Cost-Effectiveness in Secondary Health Care

Aims: The aims of this study were 1) to identify and describe health economic studies that have used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on actual measurements of patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL); 2) to test the feasibility of routine collection of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data as an indicator of effectiveness of secondary health care; and 3) to establish and compare the cost-utility of three large-volume surgical procedures in a real-world setting in the Helsinki University Central Hospital, a large referral hospital providing secondary and tertiary health-care services for a population of approximately 1.4 million. Patients and methods: So as to identify studies that have used QALYs as an outcome measure, a systematic search of the literature was performed using the Medline, Embase, CINAHL, SCI and Cochrane Library electronic databases. Initial screening of the identified articles involved two reviewers independently reading the abstracts; the full-text articles were also evaluated independently by two reviewers, with a third reviewer used in cases where the two reviewers could not agree a consensus on which articles should be included. The feasibility of routinely evaluating the cost-effectiveness of secondary health care was tested by setting up a system for collecting HRQoL data on approximately 4 900 patients' HRQoL before and after operative treatments performed in the hospital. The HRQoL data used as an indicator of treatment effectiveness was combined with diagnostic and financial indicators routinely collected in the hospital. To compare the cost-effectiveness of three surgical interventions, 712 patients admitted for routine operative treatment completed the 15D HRQoL questionnaire before and also 3-12 months after the operation. QALYs were calculated using the obtained utility data and expected remaining life years of the patients. Direct hospital costs were obtained from the clinical patient administration database of the hospital and a cost-utility analysis was performed from the perspective of the provider of secondary health care services. Main results: The systematic review (Study I) showed that although QALYs gained are considered an important measure of the effectiveness of health care, the number of studies in which QALYs are based on actual measurements of patients' HRQoL is still fairly limited. Of the reviewed full-text articles, only 70 reported QALYs based on actual before after measurements using a valid HRQoL instrument. Collection of simple cost-effectiveness data in secondary health care is feasible and could easily be expanded and performed on a routine basis (Study II). It allows meaningful comparisons between various treatments and provides a means for allocating limited health care resources. The cost per QALY gained was 2 770 for cervical operations and 1 740 for lumbar operations. In cases where surgery was delayed the cost per QALY was doubled (Study III). The cost per QALY ranges between subgroups in cataract surgery (Study IV). The cost per QALY gained was 5 130 for patients having both eyes operated on and 8 210 for patients with only one eye operated on during the 6-month follow-up. In patients whose first eye had been operated on previous to the study period, the mean HRQoL deteriorated after surgery, thus precluding the establishment of the cost per QALY. In arthroplasty patients (Study V) the mean cost per QALY gained in a one-year period was 6 710 for primary hip replacement, 52 270 for revision hip replacement, and 14 000 for primary knee replacement. Conclusions: Although the importance of cost-utility analyses has during recent years been stressed, there are only a limited number of studies in which the evaluation is based on patients own assessment of the treatment effectiveness. Most of the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses are based on modeling that employs expert opinion regarding the outcome of treatment, not on patient-derived assessments. Routine collection of effectiveness information from patients entering treatment in secondary health care turned out to be easy enough and did not, for instance, require additional personnel on the wards in which the study was executed. The mean patient response rate was more than 70 %, suggesting that patients were happy to participate and appreciated the fact that the hospital showed an interest in their well-being even after the actual treatment episode had ended. Spinal surgery leads to a statistically significant and clinically important improvement in HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained was reasonable, at less than half of that observed for instance for hip replacement surgery. However, prolonged waiting for an operation approximately doubled the cost per QALY gained from the surgical intervention. The mean utility gain following routine cataract surgery in a real world setting was relatively small and confined mostly to patients who had had both eyes operated on. The cost of cataract surgery per QALY gained was higher than previously reported and was associated with considerable degree of uncertainty. Hip and knee replacement both improve HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained from knee replacement is two-fold compared to hip replacement. Cost-utility results from the three studied specialties showed that there is great variation in the cost-utility of surgical interventions performed in a real-world setting even when only common, widely accepted interventions are considered. However, the cost per QALY of all the studied interventions, except for revision hip arthroplasty, was well below 50 000, this figure being sometimes cited in the literature as a threshold level for the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Based on the present study it may be concluded that routine evaluation of the cost-utility of secondary health care is feasible and produces information essential for a rational and balanced allocation of scarce health care resources.

A Differential typing of Campylobacter

Establish a DNA-based typing scheme that allows the allocation of strains of Campylobacter to types that are host specific and/or non-host specific.

A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems.

We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers' experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement. Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.

Phosphorus retention in forest soils and the functioning of buffer zones used in forestry

Phosphorus (P) retention properties of soils typical for boreal forest, i.e. podzolic soil and peat soils, vary significantly, but the range of this variation has not been sufficiently documented. To assess the usefulness of buffer zones used in forestry in removing P from the discharge by chemical sorption in soil, and to estimate the risk of P leaching after forestry operations, more data is needed on soil P retention properties. P retention properties of soils were studied at clear-cut areas, unharvested buffer zones adjoining the clear-cut and at peatland buffer zone areas. Desorption-sorption isotherms were determined for the humus layer, the mineral soil horizons E, B and C of the Podzol profile and for the surface layer peat (0-15 cm) and the subsurface layer peat (15-30 cm). The efficiency of buffer zones in retaining P was studied at six peatland buffer zone areas by adding P-containing solute in the inflow. A tracer study was conducted at one of the buffer zone areas to determine the allocation of the added P in soil and vegetation. Measured sorption or desorption rather than parameter values of fitted sorption equations described P desorption and sorption behaviour in soil. The highest P retention efficiency was in the B horizon and consequently, if contact occurred or was established between the soluble P in the water and the soil B horizon, the risk of P leaching was low. Humus layer was completely incapable of retaining P after clear-cutting. In the buffer zones, the decrease in P retention properties in the humus layer and the low amount of P sorbed by it indicated that the importance of the layer in the functioning of buffer zones is low. The peatland buffer zone areas were efficient in retaining soluble P from inflow. P sorption properties of the peat soil at the buffer zone areas varied largely but the contribution of P sorption in the peat was particularly important during high flow in spring, when the vegetation was not fully developed. Factors contributing to efficient P retention were large buffer size and low hydrological load whereas high hydrological load combined with the formation of preferential flow paths, especially during early spring or late autumn was disadvantageous. However, small buffer zone areas, too, may be efficient in reducing P load.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.