The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

Is the association between temperature and mortality modified by age, gender and socio-economic status?

Background: A number of studies have examined the relationship between high ambient temperature and mortality. Recently, concern has arisen about whether this relationship is modified by socio-demographic factors. However, data for this type of study is relatively scarce in subtropical/tropical regions where people are well accustomed to warm temperatures. Objective: To investigate whether the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily all-cause mortality is modified by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality data for Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004. A generalised additive model was fitted to assess the percentage increase in all deaths with every one degree increment above the threshold temperature. Different age, gender and SES groups were included in the model as categorical variables and their modification effects were estimated separately. Results: A total of 53,316 non-external deaths were included during the study period. There was a clear increasing trend in the harmful effect of high temperature on mortality with age. The effect estimate among women was more than 20 times that among men. We did not find an SES effect on the percent increase associated with temperature. Conclusions: The effects of high temperature on all deaths were modified by age and gender but not by SES in Brisbane, Australia.

Online alcohol interventions : a systematic review

Background: There has been a significant increase in the availability of online programs for alcohol problems. A systematic review of the research evidence underpinning these programs is timely. Objectives: Our objective was to review the efficacy of online interventions for alcohol misuse. Systematic searches of Medline, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus were conducted for English abstracts (excluding dissertations) published from 1998 onward. Search terms were: (1) Internet, Web*; (2) online, computer*; (3) alcohol*; and (4) E\effect*, trial*, random* (where * denotes a wildcard). Forward and backward searches from identified papers were also conducted. Articles were included if (1) the primary intervention was delivered and accessed via the Internet, (2) the intervention focused on moderating or stopping alcohol consumption, and (3) the study was a randomized controlled trial of an alcohol-related screen, assessment, or intervention. Results: The literature search initially yielded 31 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 17 of which met inclusion criteria. Of these 17 studies, 12 (70.6%) were conducted with university students, and 11 (64.7%) specifically focused on at-risk, heavy, or binge drinkers. Sample sizes ranged from 40 to 3216 (median 261), with 12 (70.6%) studies predominantly involving brief personalized feedback interventions. Using published data, effect sizes could be extracted from 8 of the 17 studies. In relation to alcohol units per week or month and based on 5 RCTs where a measure of alcohol units per week or month could be extracted, differential effect sizes to post treatment ranged from 0.02 to 0.81 (mean 0.42, median 0.54). Pre-post effect sizes for brief personalized feedback interventions ranged from 0.02 to 0.81, and in 2 multi-session modularized interventions, a pre-post effect size of 0.56 was obtained in both. Pre-post differential effect sizes for peak blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) ranged from 0.22 to 0.88, with a mean effect size of 0.66. Conclusions: The available evidence suggests that users can benefit from online alcohol interventions and that this approach could be particularly useful for groups less likely to access traditional alcohol-related services, such as women, young people, and at-risk users. However, caution should be exercised given the limited number of studies allowing extraction of effect sizes, the heterogeneity of outcome measures and follow-up periods, and the large proportion of student-based studies. More extensive RCTs in community samples are required to better understand the efficacy of specific online alcohol approaches, program dosage, the additive effect of telephone or face-to-face interventions, and effective strategies for their dissemination and marketing.

Ureaplasma colonization of amniotic fluid and efficacy of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm lung maturation in sheep

Objective: To assess the efficacy of maternal betamethasone for improving preterm lung function, in the presence of inflammation induced by amniotic fluid ureaplasma colonization. ----- ----- Study design: Ewes bearing single fetuses were randomized to receive an intra-amniotic injection of Ureaplasma parvum (serovar 6; 2×107 colony forming units) or vehicle at 86±2 days of pregnancy (mean±SD: term is 150d), followed by maternal intramuscular betamethasone (0.5mg/kg) or saline, either 2 or 7 days before delivery of lambs at 123±1d. ----- ----- Results: Amniotic fluid IL-8 was elevated by ureaplasmas (p=0.049) but unaffected by betamethasone. Lung inflammation induced by ureaplasmas was not affected by betamethasone. Lung compliance was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p=0.009) and betamethasone (p=0.042), and effects were additive. Lung surfactant was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p<0.001) and betamethasone 7 days (p=0.001), but not 2 days, before delivery. ----- ----- Conclusion: Inflammation improves preterm lung function due to increases in surfactant. Antenatal corticosteroids further augment lung function, through an apparently independent mechanism.

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Empirical minimization

We investigate the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm using various methods. We first analyze it by comparing the empirical, random, structure and the original one on the class, either in an additive sense, via the uniform law of large numbers, or in a multiplicative sense, using isomorphic coordinate projections. We then show that a direct analysis of the empirical minimization algorithm yields a significantly better bound, and that the estimates we obtain are essentially sharp. The method of proof we use is based on Talagrand’s concentration inequality for empirical processes.

Numerical methods for second-order stochastic differential equations

We seek numerical methods for second‐order stochastic differential equations that reproduce the stationary density accurately for all values of damping. A complete analysis is possible for scalar linear second‐order equations (damped harmonic oscillators with additive noise), where the statistics are Gaussian and can be calculated exactly in the continuous‐time and discrete‐time cases. A matrix equation is given for the stationary variances and correlation for methods using one Gaussian random variable per timestep. The only Runge–Kutta method with a nonsingular tableau matrix that gives the exact steady state density for all values of damping is the implicit midpoint rule. Numerical experiments, comparing the implicit midpoint rule with Heun and leapfrog methods on nonlinear equations with additive or multiplicative noise, produce behavior similar to the linear case.

Identifying experts in information systems for system evaluations

This research-in-progress paper reports preliminary findings of a study that is designed to identify characteristics of an expert in the discipline of Information Systems (IS). The paper delivers a formative research model to depict characteristics of an expert with three additive constructs, using concepts derived from psychology, knowledge management and social-behaviour research. The paper then explores the formation and application ‘expertise’ using four investigative questions in the context of System Evaluations. Data have been gathered from 220 respondents representing three medium sized companies in India, using the SAP Enterprise Resource Planning system. The paper summarizes planned data analyses in construct validation, model testing and model application. A validated construct of expertise of IS will have a wide range of implications for research and practice.

Least-squares congealing for large numbers of images

In this paper we pursue the task of aligning an ensemble of images in an unsupervised manner. This task has been commonly referred to as “congealing” in literature. A form of congealing, using a least-squares criteria, has been recently demonstrated to have desirable properties over conventional congealing. Least-squares congealing can be viewed as an extension of the Lucas & Kanade (LK)image alignment algorithm. It is well understood that the alignment performance for the LK algorithm, when aligning a single image with another, is theoretically and empirically equivalent for additive and compositional warps. In this paper we: (i) demonstrate that this equivalence does not hold for the extended case of congealing, (ii) characterize the inherent drawbacks associated with least-squares congealing when dealing with large numbers of images, and (iii) propose a novel method for circumventing these limitations through the application of an inverse-compositional strategy that maintains the attractive properties of the original method while being able to handle very large numbers of images.

Pattern recognition using invariants defined from higher order spectra - one-dimensional inputs

A new approach to pattern recognition using invariant parameters based on higher order spectra is presented. In particular, invariant parameters derived from the bispectrum are used to classify one-dimensional shapes. The bispectrum, which is translation invariant, is integrated along straight lines passing through the origin in bifrequency space. The phase of the integrated bispectrum is shown to be scale and amplification invariant, as well. A minimal set of these invariants is selected as the feature vector for pattern classification, and a minimum distance classifier using a statistical distance measure is used to classify test patterns. The classification technique is shown to distinguish two similar, but different bolts given their one-dimensional profiles. Pattern recognition using higher order spectral invariants is fast, suited for parallel implementation, and has high immunity to additive Gaussian noise. Simulation results show very high classification accuracy, even for low signal-to-noise ratios.

Investigation of phenol degradation : True reaction kinetics on fixed film titanium dioxide photocatalyst

This study of photocatalytic oxidation of phenol over titanium dioxide films presents a method for the evaluation of true reaction kinetics. A flat plate reactor was designed for the specific purpose of investigating the influence of various reaction parameters, specifically photocatalytic film thickness, solution flow rate (1–8 l min−1), phenol concentration (20, 40 and 80 ppm), and irradiation intensity (70.6, 57.9, 37.1and 20.4 W m−2), in order to further understand their impact on the reaction kinetics. Special attention was given to the mass transfer phenomena and the influence of film thickness. The kinetics of phenol degradation were investigated with different irradiation levels and initial pollutant concentration. Photocatalytic degradation experiments were performed to evaluate the influence of mass transfer on the reaction and, in addition, the benzoic acid method was applied for the evaluation of mass transfer coefficient. For this study the reactor was modelled as a batch-recycle reactor. A system of equations that accounts for irradiation, mass transfer and reaction rate was developed to describe the photocatalytic process, to fit the experimental data and to obtain kinetic parameters. The rate of phenol photocatalytic oxidation was described by a Langmuir–Hinshelwood type law that included competitive adsorption and degradation of phenol and its by-products. The by-products were modelled through their additive effect on the solution total organic carbon.

Instantaneous phase of the autocorrelation and robustness to signal-dependent noise

The phase of an analytic signal constructed from the autocorrelation function of a signal contains significant information about the shape of the signal. Using Bedrosian's (1963) theorem for the Hilbert transform it is proved that this phase is robust to multiplicative noise if the signal is baseband and the spectra of the signal and the noise do not overlap. Higher-order spectral features are interpreted in this context and shown to extract nonlinear phase information while retaining robustness. The significance of the result is that prior knowledge of the spectra is not required.

Raising awareness of traffic pollution: the potential benefits and problems of using a warning smell

Exposure to traffic pollution is increasing worldwide as people move to cities, and as more vehicles join the roads, creating longer journeys and more traffic jams. Most traffic pollutants are odourless and invisible, which hides exposure from the public. If traffic pollution had a distinctive smell it would enable people to avoid exposure, and increase the political will for difficult policy changes. A smell may also instigate longer-term changes, such as switching to active transport for school pick-ups. A smell could be added using a fuel additive or a temporary device attached to vehicle exhausts.

Test of a model of the effects of parental illness on youth and family functioning

Objective: Parental illness (PI) may have adverse impacts on youth and family functioning. Research in this area has suffered from the absence of a guiding comprehensive framework. This study tested a conceptual model of the effects of PI on youth and family functioning derived from the Family Ecology Framework (FEF; Pedersen & Revenson, 2005). Method. A total of 85 parents with multiple sclerosis and 127 youth completed questionnaires at Time 1 and 12 months later at Time 2. Results. Structural equation modeling results supported the FEF with regards to physical-illness disability. Specifically, the proposed mediators (role redistribution, stress, and stigma) were implicated in the processes that link parental disability to several domains of youth adjustment. The results suggest that the effects of parental depression (PD) are not mediated through these processes; rather, PD directly affects family functioning, which in turn mediates the effects onto youth adjustment. Family functioning further mediated between PD and youth well-being and behavioral-social difficulties. Conclusions. Although results support the effects of parental-illness disability on youth and family functioning via the proposed mediational mechanisms, the additive effects of PD on youth physical and mental health occur through direct and indirect (via family functioning) pathways, respectively.

The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.