Calibration of uncertain flood inundation models using remotely sensed water levels

A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LIDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood waterlines, and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range in a GLUE-based analysis. A 1 in 5-year flood on the Thames in 1992 was used as a test event. As is typical for UK floods, only a single SAR image of observed flood extent was available for model calibration and validation. A simple implementation of a two-dimensional flood model (LISFLOOD-FP) was used to generate model flood extents for comparison with that observed. The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the measure based on areal patterns of flood extent. The former was able to restrict the parameter range of acceptable model runs and hence reduce the number of runs necessary to generate an inundation uncertainty map. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood risk map. The uncertainty analysis included the effects of uncertainties in the observed flood extent as well as in model parameters. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique allows for the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections, which in this case resulted in lower r.m.s. height differences between observed and modelled waterlines than those achieved by runs using a single friction parameter for the whole reach. However, a validation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed a significant difference between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent. While this was true for both measures, the difference was especially significant for the height-based one. This is likely to be due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model

Feeding rumen-inert fats differing in their degree of saturation decreases intake and increases plasma concentrations of gut peptides in lactating dairy cows

Our objective was to determine the effect of feeding rumen-inert fats differing in their degree of saturation on dry matter intake (DMI), milk production, and plasma concentrations of insulin, glucagon-like peptide 1 (7-36) amide (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and cholecystokinin (CCK) in lactating dairy cows. Four midlactation, primiparous Holstein cows were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square experiment with 2-wk periods. Cows were fed a control mixed ration ad libitum, and treatments were the dietary addition (3.5% of ration dry matter) of 3 rumen-inert fats as sources of mostly saturated fatty acids (SFA), monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), or polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA). Daily DMI, milk yield, and composition were measured on the last 4 d of each period. Jugular vein blood was collected every 30 min over a 7-h period on d 12 and 14 of each period for analysis of plasma concentrations of hormones, glucose, and nonesterified fatty acids. Feeding fat decreased DMI, and the decrease tended to be greater for MUFA and PUFA compared with SFA. Plasma concentration of GLP-1 increased when fat was fed and was greater for MUFA and PUFA. Feeding fat increased plasma glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and CCK concentrations and decreased plasma insulin concentration. Plasma CCK concentration was greater for MUFA and PUFA than for SFA and was greater for MUFA than PUFA. Decreases in DMI in cows fed fat were associated with increased plasma concentrations of GLP-1 and CCK and a decreased insulin concentration. The role of these peptides in regulating DMI in cattle fed fat requires further investigation.

Degree of oxidation of low density lipoprotein affects expression of CD36 and PPAR gamma, but not cytokine production, by human monocyte-macrophages

Oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL) exhibits many atherogenic effects, including the promotion of monocyte recruitment to the arterial endothelium and the induction of scavenger receptor expression. However, while atherosclerosis involves chronic inflammation within the arterial intima, it is unclear whether oxLDL alone provides a direct inflammatory stimulus for monocyte-macrophages. Furthermore, oxLDL is not a single, well-defined entity, but has structural and physical properties which vary according to the degree of oxidation. We tested the hypothesis that the biological effects of oxLDL will vary according to its degree of oxidation and that some species of oxLDL will have atherogenic properties, while other species may be responsible for its inflammatory activity. The atherogenic and inflammatory properties of LDL oxidized to predetermined degrees (mild, moderate and extensive oxidation) were investigated in a single system using human monocyte-derived macrophages. Expression of CD36 mRNA was up-regulated by mildly- and moderately-oxLDL, but not highly-oxLDL. The expression of the transcription factor, proliferator-activated receptor-gamma (PPARgamma), which has been proposed to positively regulate the expression of CD36, was increased to the greatest degree by highly-oxLDL. However, the DNA binding activity of PPARgamma was increased only by mildly- and moderately-oxLDL. None of the oxLDL species appeared to be pro-inflammatory towards monocytes, either directly or indirectly through mediators derived from lymphocytes, regardless of the degree of oxidation. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

Empathy and emotion recognition in people with autism, first-degree relatives, and controls

Empathy is the lens through which we view others' emotion expressions, and respond to them. In this study, empathy and facial emotion recognition were investigated in adults with autism spectrum conditions (ASC; N=314), parents of a child with ASC (N=297) and IQ-matched controls (N=184). Participants completed a self-report measure of empathy (the Empathy Quotient [EQ]) and a modified version of the Karolinska Directed Emotional Faces Task (KDEF) using an online test interface. Results showed that mean scores on the EQ were significantly lower in fathers (p<0.05) but not mothers (p>0.05) of children with ASC compared to controls, whilst both males and females with ASC obtained significantly lower EQ scores (p<0.001) than controls. On the KDEF, statistical analyses revealed poorer overall performance by adults with ASC (p<0.001) compared to the control group. When the 6 distinct basic emotions were analysed separately, the ASC group showed impaired performance across five out of six expressions (happy, sad, angry, afraid and disgusted). Parents of a child with ASC were not significantly worse than controls at recognising any of the basic emotions, after controlling for age and non-verbal IQ (all p>0.05). Finally, results indicated significant differences between males and females with ASC for emotion recognition performance (p<0.05) but not for self-reported empathy (p>0.05). These findings suggest that self-reported empathy deficits in fathers of autistic probands are part of the 'broader autism phenotype'. This study also reports new findings of sex differences amongst people with ASC in emotion recognition, as well as replicating previous work demonstrating empathy difficulties in adults with ASC. The use of empathy measures as quantitative endophenotypes for ASC is discussed.

Acceptable use policy and employee computer usage: case of Sri Lankan software development industry

Organizations introduce acceptable use policies to deter employee computer misuse. Despite the controlling, monitoring and other forms of interventions employed, some employees misuse the organizational computers to carry out their personal work such as sending emails, surfing internet, chatting, playing games etc. These activities not only waste productive time of employees but also bring a risk to the organization. A questionnaire was administrated to a random sample of employees selected from large and medium scale software development organizations, which measured the work computer misuse levels and the factors that influence such behavior. The presence of guidelines provided no evidence of significant effect on the level of employee computer misuse. Not having access to Internet /email away from work and organizational settings were identified to be the most significant influences of work computer misuse.

Band gap control via tuning of inversion degree in CdIn2S4 spinel

Based on theoretical arguments we propose a possible route for controlling the band-gap in the promising photovoltaic material CdIn2S4. Our ab initio calculations show that the experimental degree of inversion in this spinel (fraction of tetrahedral sites occupied by In) corresponds approximately to the equilibrium value given by the minimum of the theoretical inversion free energy at a typical synthesis temperature. Modification of this temperature, or of the cooling rate after synthesis, is then expected to change the inversion degree, which in turn sensitively tunes the electronic band-gap of the solid, as shown here by Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof screened hybrid functional calculations.