Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Correlations among behavior, performance and environment in broiler breeders using multivariate analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Water intake behavior of broiler chickens exposed to heat stress and drinking from bell or and nipple drinkers

The aspects involved in broiler water intake are not well known, despite the importance of water in animal nutrition and physiology. Water intake behavior should be taken into account when deciding on different types of drinkers. Bell and nipple drinkers are the most commonly used in commercial broiler production. Broilers were housed in cages equipped with two different drinker types and raised at two different environmental temperatures (25 and 34 ºC) to evaluate water intake behavior and volume. Broiler water intake behavior was influenced by drinker type. Birds visited bell drinkers less often, but presented higher total water intake per visit to the drinker as compared to those drinking from nipple drinkers. The results of this study suggest that both broilers drinking behavior and water intake volume should be taken into account when deciding on drinker type to equip broiler houses.

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of intra-hippocampal infusion of WAY-100635 on plus-maze behavior in mice - Influence of site of injection and prior test experience

The positive profile of systemically-administered 5-HT(1A) receptor antagonists in several rodent models of anxiolytic activity suggests an important role for postsynaptic 5-HT(1A) receptor mechanisms in anxiety. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of WAY-100635 microinfusions (0, 0.1, 1.0 or 3.0 mug in 0.2 mul) into the dorsal (DH) or ventral (VH) hippocampus an behaviours displayed by male Swiss-Webster mice in the elevated plus-maze. As prior experience is known to modify pharmacological responses in this test, the effects of intra-hippocampal infusions were examined both in maze-naive and maze-experienced subjects. Test videotapes were scored for conventional indices of anxiety (% open arm entries/time) and locomotor activity (closed arm entries), as well as a range of ethological measures (e.g. risk assessment). In maze-naive mice, intra-VH (but not intra-M) infusions of WAY-100635 (3.0 mug but not lower doses) increased open arm exploration and reduced risk assessment. These effects were observed in the absence of significant changes in locomotor activity. In contrast, neither intra-VH nor intra-DH infusions of WAY-100635 altered the behaviour of maze-experienced mice. These Findings suggest that postsynaptic 5-HT(1A) receptors in the ventral (but not dorsal) hippocampus play a significant role both in the mediation of plus-maze anxiety in mice and in experientially-induced alterations in responses to this test. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. BY All rights reserved.

Stress induces behavioral sensitization, increases nicotine-seeking behavior and leads to a decrease of CREB in the nucleus accumbens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Leakage current behavior of Bi3.25La0.75Ti3O12 ferroelectric thin films deposited on different bottom electrodes

Bi3.25La0.75Ti3O12 (BLT) thin films were grown on LaNiO3 (LNO), RuO2 (RuO2) and La0.5Sr0.5CoO3 (LSCO) bottom electrodes by using the polymeric precursor method and microwave furnace. The bottom electrode is found to be an important parameter which affects the crystallization, morphology and leakage current behaviors. The XRD results clearly show that film deposited on LSCO electrode favours the growth of (117) oriented grains whereas in films deposited on LNO and RuO2 the growth of (001) oriented grains dominated. The film deposited on LSCO has a plate-like grain structure, and its leakage current behavior is in agreement with the prediction of the space-charge-limited conduction model. on the other hand, the films deposited on RuO2 and LNO electrodes present a rounded grain shape with some porosity, and its high field conduction is well explained by the Schottky and Poole-Frenkel emission models. The remanent polarization (P-r) and the drive voltage (V-c) were in the range of 11-23 mu C cm(-2) and 0.86-1.56 V, respectively, and are better than the values found in the literature. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adult partner preference and sexual behavior of male rats exposed prenatally to betamethasone

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Impact of maternal mild hyperglycemia on maternal care and offspring development and behavior of Wistar rats

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Cannibalistic behavior and functional response in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera : Calliphoridae)

Chrysomya albiceps is a facultative predator and cannibal species during the larval stage. Very little is known about cannibalism and prey size preference, especially in blowflies. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the influence of prey size and larval density on cannibalism by third-instar larvae of C. albiceps under laboratory conditions. Our results indicate that no cannibalism occurs by third-instar larvae on first- and second-instar larvae, but third-instar larvae do eat second-instar larvae. The functional response on second-instar larvae is consistent with Holling type II. The consequences of consuming second-, compared to first- or third-, instar larvae as well as the implications of cannibalism for the population dynamics of C. albiceps are discussed.

Estrous behavior and the estrus-to-ovulation interval in Nelore cattle (Bos indicus) with natural estrus or estrus induced with prostaglandin F2 alpha or norgestomet and estradiol valerate

Estrous behavior and the estrus-to-ovulation interval are essential for estimating the best time to artificially inseminate cattle. Because these parameters are not well characterized in the Nelore breed (Bos indicus), the main purpose of the this study was to determine the estrus-to-ovulation interval in Nelore heifers and cows with natural estrus or with estrus induced by treatments with PGF2 alpha or norgestomet and estradiol valerate (NEV). The cows and heifers were observed continuously (24 h a day) to determine the onset of estrus and to study estrous behavior in the cows. Ten hours after the start of estrus the ovaries were scanned every 2 h by ultrasonography to monitor the dominant follicle until ovulation. Blood samples were collected periodically to determine progesterone levels by RIA. Administration of PGF2 alpha (2 injections, 11 days apart) did not induce estrus in most Nelore females in spite of the presence of functional CL, indicated by progesterone concentrations above 6.0 ng/ml in 25 of 28 animals. Treatment with NEV induced high sexual receptivity in cows (10/11), but only 66% ovulated. Cows with natural or induced estrus exhibited behavioral estrus of 10.9 +/- 1.4 h, and ovulation occurred 26.6 +/- 0.44 h (n = 26) after the onset of estrus. In most of the cows (53.8%) estrus began at night (between 1801 and 600 h), and 34.6% it started and finished during the night. It is concluded that in Nelore females ovulation occurs approximately 26 h after the onset of estrus. Additionally, estrous behavior is shorter than in European breeds, and there is a high incidence of estrus at night, which makes it difficult to detect and, consequently, impairs Al in Nelore cattle. The observation that a high percentage of Nelore females with an active CL did not respond to usual dosages of PGF2 alpha warrants further investigation. (C) 1998 by Elsevier B.V.

Sexual behavior, neuroendocrine, and neurochemical aspects in male rats exposed prenatally to stress

The present study was designed to examine some short- and long-term effects of maternal restraint stress-during the period of sexual brain differentiation-on reproductive and endocrine systems, sexual behavior, and brain neurotransmitters in male rat descendants. Pregnant rats were exposed to restraint stress for 1 h/day from gestational days (GDs) 18 to 22. Prenatal stress did not influence the wet weight of sexual organs and the quantity of germ cells in adult male pups; however, these animals showed reduced testosterone levels, delayed latency to the first mount and first intromission, and also decreased number of ejaculations. Additionally, there was an increase in the dopamine and serotonin levels in the striatum. Our results indicate that prenatal stress had a long-term effect on neurotransmitter levels and sexual behavior. In this sense, reproductive problems caused by injuries during the fetal period can compromise the later success of mating as well as the capacity to generate descendants. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of prenatal hydrocortisone acetate exposure on fertility and sexual behavior in male rats

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of hydrocortisone during the prenatal period and its later repercussions on the fertility and sexual behavior of male rats. Pregnant rats were treated (s.c.) with hydrocortisone acetate, at 1.5 mg/day on the 17th, 18th, and 19th days of gestation. Decreased body weight and no alteration in anogenital distance were observed in male offspring. Adulthood, presented reductions of body weight, plasma testosterone levels, and seminal-vesicle wet weight without secretion as well as no alteration in the wet weights of the testes, epididymis, and seminal vesicle with secretion in the treated group. Males exposed to hydrocortisone during the prenatal period were able to mate with normal females, which became pregnant but exhibited an increased number of post-implantation losses. In spite of this, these treated males exhibited decreased male sexual behavior and the appearance of female sexual behavior after these male rats were castrated and pretreated with exogenous estrogen. These results indicate that exposure to hydrocortisone in the later stages of pregnancy may have a long-term effect on the fertility and sexual behavior of mate rats, suggesting an incomplete masculinization and defeminization of the central nervous system. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. (USA). All rights reserved.