Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Abundance of sedentary consumers and sessile organisms along the wave exposure gradient of subtropical rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Incommensurate spin-density-wave and metal-insulator transition in the one-dimensional periodic Anderson model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Photorefractive two-wave mixing phase coupling measurement in a self-stabilized recording regime

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Morphological and luminescent studies on nanosized Er, Yb-Yttrium oxide up-converter prepared from different precursors

In this paper, we report luminescent and morphological studies with yttrium oxide samples doped with ytterbium and erbium. The samples were prepared by the combustion method and also from different precursors: oxalate, basic carbonate and polymeric resin. All powders were identified Lis being an yttrium oxide with a C-form structure, independent of the employed precursor. From mean crystallite size measurements, it was verified that oxides prepared through the polymeric precursor and combustion methods lead to the smallest crystallite size. Particle shape and size were investigated by SEM and TEM, and showed that both the oxalate precursor and the combustion methods do not provide oxide materials of suitable shape or size, on the other hand. The basic carbonate and polymeric precursors resulted in spherically shaped particles with an average diameter of 90 and 15 run. respectively, Upon 980 run diode laser excitation, green and red emission lines were detected for all samples and were assigned to the H-2(11/2) S-4(3/2) -> I-4(15/2) and (4)Fg(9/2) -> 4I(15/12) transitions, respectively. Such transitions are characteristic for Er3+ and result from energy transfer from Yb3+ energy levels, F-2(7/2) -> F-2(5/2). A relationship between the decrease in the mean crystallite size and the enhancement in red emission was also established as well as the influence of the presence of a high percentage of Yb-3 Both factors promote ET from Yb3+ (F-2(5/2)) to Er3+ (I-4(11/2)). (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aligning the CMS muon chambers with the muon alignment system during an extended cosmic ray run

The alignment system for the muon spectrometer of the CMS detector comprises three independent subsystems of optical and analog position sensors. It aligns muon chambers with respect to each other and to the central silicon tracker. System commissioning at full magnetic field began in 2008 during an extended cosmic ray run. The system succeeded in tracking muon detector movements of up to 18 mm and rotations of several milliradians under magnetic forces. Depending on coordinate and subsystem, the system achieved chamber alignment precisions of 140-350 μm and 30-200 μrad, close to the precision requirements of the experiment. Systematic errors on absolute positions are estimated to be 340-590 μm based on comparisons with independent photogrammetry measurements. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd and SISSA.

International migration, capital flows and the global economy: a long run view

Includes bibliography

Dynamic exercise versus tag game warm up: The acute effect on agility and vertical jump in children

Although dynamic and stretching exercises have been widely investigated, there is little information about warm up performed by tag games. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to verify the acute effect of dynamic exercises compared to a tag game warm up on agility and vertical jump in children. 25 boys and 24 girls participated in this study and performed the agility and vertical jump tests after warm up based on dynamic exercises or as a tag game lasting 10 min each in two different days randomly. Dynamic exercises warm up consisted in a run lasting 2.5 min followed by 2 series of 8 dynamic exercises lasting 10 seconds each interspersed with 20s of light run to recovery. Tag game warm up was performed by a tag game with two variations lasting 5 min each. The first variation there was a single cather, which aimed to get the other participants by touching hands. In the second part of the game, the rules were the same except that the participant that was caught had to help the catcher forming a team of catchers. Warm up intensity was monitored by OMNI perceived exertion scale. ANOVA 2x2 for repeated measures (Warm up x Sex) demonstrated no significant differences between dynamic exercises and tag game for agility and vertical jump (P>0.05) for boys and girls. Perceived exertion was significantly higher in tag game compared to dynamic exercises on girls (P<0.05). Both warm up models showed similar acute effects on agility and vertical jump in children. © Faculty of Education. University of Alicante.

Detection of buried pipes using a shear wave ground surface vibration technique

A major UK initiative, entitled 'Mapping the Underworld', is seeking to address the serious social, environmental and economic consequences arising from an inability to locate the buried utility service infrastructure without resorting to extensive excavations. Mapping the Underworld aims to develop and prove the efficacy of a multi-sensor device for accurate remote buried utility service detection, location and, where possible, identification. One of the technologies to be incorporated in the device is low-frequency vibro-acoustics, and the application of this technology for detecting buried infrastructure is currently being investigated. Here, a shear wave ground vibration technique for detecting buried pipes is described. For this technique, shear waves are generated at the ground surface, and the resulting ground surface vibrations measured, using geophones, along a line traversing the anticipated run of the pipe. Measurements were made at a test site with a single pressurized polyethylene mains water pipe. Time-extended signals were employed to generate the illuminating wave. Cross-correlation functions between the measured ground velocities and a reference measurement adjacent to the excitation were then calculated and summed using a stacking method to generate a cross-sectional image of the ground. The wide cross-correlation peaks caused by high ground attenuation were partially compensated for by using a generalized cross-correlation function called the smoothed coherence transform. To mitigate the effects of other potential sources of vibration in the vicinity, the excitation signal was used as an additional reference when calculating the generalized cross-correlation functions. For two out of three tests, the pipe was detected, indicating that this technique will be a valuable addition to the Mapping the Underworld armoury.

A 12-month follow-up of hypopigmentation after laser hair removal

Introduction: Laser hair removal is becoming an increasingly popular alternative to traditional methods such as shaving, waxing, among other methods. Semiconductor diode lasers are considered the most efficient light sources available and are especially well suited for clinical applications including hair reduction. The effectiveness of laser hair reduction depends on many variables, including the skin type of the patient. Material and Methods: A patient with Fitzpatrick Skin Type IV was submitted to laser hair removal of the arms with a high-power diode laser system with long pulses with a wavelength of 800 nm, a fluence of 40 J/cm2 and a pulse width of 20 ms. A 12-month follow-up assessment was performed and included photography and questionnaire. Results: Hypopigmentation was observed after a single laser hair removal section. After 6 months with the area totally covered, a gradual suntan with a sun screen lotion with an SPF of 15 was prescribed by the dermatologist. After 12 months of the initial treatment, a complete recovery of the hypopigmentation was achieved. Conclusion: Although a safe procedure, lasers for hair removal may be associated with adverse side effects including undesired pigment alterations. Before starting a laser hair removal treatment, patients seeking the eradication of hair should be informed that temporary, and possibly permanent, pigmentary changes may occur. © 2013 Informa UK, Ltd.

Finite time blow-up and breaking of solitary wind waves

The evolution of surface water waves in finite depth under wind forcing is reduced to an antidissipative Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation. We exhibit its solitary wave solution. Antidissipation accelerates and increases the amplitude of the solitary wave and leads to blow-up and breaking. Blow-up occurs in finite time for infinitely large asymptotic space so it is a nonlinear, dispersive, and antidissipative equivalent of the linear instability which occurs for infinite time. Due to antidissipation two given arbitrary and adjacent planes of constant phases of the solitary wave acquire different velocities and accelerations inducing breaking. Soliton breaking occurs in finite space in a time prior to the blow-up. We show that the theoretical growth in amplitude and the time of breaking are both testable in an existing experimental facility.

The NINJA-2 project: detecting and characterizing gravitational waveforms modelled using numerical binary black hole simulations

The Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project is a collaborative effort between members of the numerical relativity and gravitational-wave (GW) astrophysics communities. The purpose of NINJA is to study the ability to detect GWs emitted from merging binary black holes (BBH) and recover their parameters with next-generation GW observatories. We report here on the results of the second NINJA project, NINJA-2, which employs 60 complete BBH hybrid waveforms consisting of a numerical portion modelling the late inspiral, merger, and ringdown stitched to a post-Newtonian portion modelling the early inspiral. In a 'blind injection challenge' similar to that conducted in recent Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo science runs, we added seven hybrid waveforms to two months of data recoloured to predictions of Advanced LIGO (aLIGO) and Advanced Virgo (AdV) sensitivity curves during their first observing runs. The resulting data was analysed by GW detection algorithms and 6 of the waveforms were recovered with false alarm rates smaller than 1 in a thousand years. Parameter-estimation algorithms were run on each of these waveforms to explore the ability to constrain the masses, component angular momenta and sky position of these waveforms. We find that the strong degeneracy between the mass ratio and the BHs' angular momenta will make it difficult to precisely estimate these parameters with aLIGO and AdV. We also perform a large-scale Monte Carlo study to assess the ability to recover each of the 60 hybrid waveforms with early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves. Our results predict that early aLIGO and AdV will have a volume-weighted average sensitive distance of 300 Mpc (1 Gpc) for 10M circle dot + 10M circle dot (50M circle dot + 50M circle dot) BBH coalescences. We demonstrate that neglecting the component angular momenta in the waveform models used in matched-filtering will result in a reduction in sensitivity for systems with large component angular momenta. This reduction is estimated to be up to similar to 15% for 50M circle dot + 50M circle dot BBH coalescences with almost maximal angular momenta aligned with the orbit when using early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves.

Search for gravitational radiation from intermediate mass black hole binaries in data from the second LIGO-Virgo joint science run

This paper reports on an unmodeled, all-sky search for gravitational waves from merging intermediate mass black hole binaries (IMBHB). The search was performed on data from the second joint science run of the LIGO and Virgo detectors (July 2009-October 2010) and was sensitive to IMBHBs with a range up to similar to 200 Mpc, averaged over the possible sky positions and inclinations of the binaries with respect to the line of sight. No significant candidate was found. Upper limits on the coalescence-rate density of nonspinning IMBHBs with total masses between 100 and 450 M-circle dot and mass ratios between 0.25 and 1 were placed by combining this analysis with an analogous search performed on data from the first LIGO-Virgo joint science run (November 2005-October 2007). The most stringent limit was set for systems consisting of two 88 M-circle dot black holes and is equal to 0.12 Mpc(-3) Myr(-1) at the 90% confidence level. This paper also presents the first estimate, for the case of an unmodeled analysis, of the impact on the search range of IMBHB spin configurations: the visible volume for IMBHBs with nonspinning components is roughly doubled for a population of IMBHBs with spins aligned with the binary's orbital angular momentum and uniformly distributed in the dimensionless spin parameter up to 0.8, whereas an analogous population with antialigned spins decreases the visible volume by similar to 20%.

Ovum pick-up technique in recently weaned ewe lambs subjected to ovarian stimulation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Wave reflection at the end of a waveguide supported by a nonlinear spring

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)