The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content

Explosive volcanic eruptions cause episodic negative radiative forcing of the climate system. Using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) subjected to historical forcing since the late nineteenth century, previous authors have shown that each large volcanic eruption is associated with a sudden drop in ocean heat content and sea-level from which the subsequent recovery is slow. Here we show that this effect may be an artefact of experimental design, caused by the AOGCMs not having been spun up to a steady state with volcanic forcing before the historical integrations begin. Because volcanic forcing has a long-term negative average, a cooling tendency is thus imposed on the ocean in the historical simulation. We recommend that an extra experiment be carried out in parallel to the historical simulation, with constant time-mean historical volcanic forcing, in order to correct for this effect and avoid misinterpretation of ocean heat content changes

A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.

In this study we quantify the relationship between the aerosol optical depth increase from a volcanic eruption and the severity of the subsequent surface temperature decrease. This investigation is made by simulating 10 different sizes of eruption in a global circulation model (GCM) by changing stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth at each time step. The sizes of the simulated eruptions range from Pinatubo‐sized up to the magnitude of supervolcanic eruptions around 100 times the size of Pinatubo. From these simulations we find that there is a smooth monotonic relationship between the global mean maximum aerosol optical depth anomaly and the global mean temperature anomaly and we derive a simple mathematical expression which fits this relationship well. We also construct similar relationships between global mean aerosol optical depth and the temperature anomaly at every individual model grid box to produce global maps of best‐fit coefficients and fit residuals. These maps are used with caution to find the eruption size at which a local temperature anomaly is clearly distinct from the local natural variability and to approximate the temperature anomalies which the model may simulate following a Tambora‐sized eruption. To our knowledge, this is the first study which quantifies the relationship between aerosol optical depth and resulting temperature anomalies in a simple way, using the wealth of data that is available from GCM simulations.

Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud-free skies allowed ground-based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

Ultra-distal tephra deposits from super-eruptions: examples from Toba, Indonesia and Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Voluminous rhyolitic eruptions from Toba, Indonesia, and Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), New Zealand, have dispersed volcanic ash over vast areas in the late Quaternary. The ~74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption deposited ash over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian subcontinent to the west. The ~340 ka Whakamaru eruption (TVZ) deposited the widespread Rangitawa Tephra, dominantly to the southeast (in addition to occurrences northwest of vent), extending across the landmass of New Zealand, and the South Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea, with distal terrestrial exposures on the Chatham Islands. These super-eruptions involved ~2500 km^3 and ~1500 km3 of magma (dense-rock equivalent; DRE), respectively. Ultra-distal terrestrial exposures of YTT at two localities in India, Middle Son Valley, Madhya Pradesh, and Jurreru River Valley, Andhra Pradesh, at distances of >2000 km from the source caldera, show a basal ‘primary’ ashfall unit ~4 cm thick, although deposits containing reworked ash are up to ~3 m in total thickness. Exposures of Rangitawa Tephra on the Chatham Islands, >900 km from the source caldera, are ~15-30 cm thick. At more proximal localities (~200 km from source), Rangitawa Tephra is ~55-70 cm thick and characterized by a crystal-rich basal layer and normal grading. Both distal tephra deposits are characterized by very-fine ash (with high PM10 fractions) and are crystal-poor. Glass chemistry, stratigraphy and grain-size data for these distal tephra deposits are presented with comparisons of their correlation, dispersal and preservation. Using field observations, ash transport and deposition were modeled for both eruptions using a semi-analytical model (HAZMAP), with assumptions concerning average wind direction and strength during eruption, column shape and vent size. Model outputs provide new insights into eruption dynamics and better estimates of eruption volumes associ- ated with tephra fallout. Modeling based on observed YTT distal tephra thicknesses indicate a relatively low (<40 km high), very turbulent eruption column, consistent with deposition from a co-ignimbrite cloud extending over a broad region. Similarly, the Whakamaru eruption was modeled as producing a predominantly Plinian column (~45 km high), with dispersal to the southeast by strong prevailing winds. Significant ash fallout of the main dispersal direction, to the northwest of source, cannot be replicated in this modeling. The widespread dispersal of large volumes of fine ash from both eruptions may have had global environmental consequences, acutely affecting areas up to thousands of kilometers from vent.

Determining the contribution of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol in backscatter lidar returns: a three‐component atmosphere approach

A solution of the lidar equation is discussed, that permits combining backscatter and depolarization measurements to quantitatively distinguish two different aerosol types with different depolarization properties. The method has been successfully applied to simultaneous observations of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol obtained in Exeter, United Kingdom, on 16 and 18 April 2010, permitting the contribution of the two aerosols to be quantified separately. First a subset of the atmospheric profiles is used where the two aerosol types belong to clearly distinguished layers, for the purpose of characterizing the ash in terms of lidar ratio and depolarization. These quantities are then used in a three‐component atmosphere solution scheme of the lidar equation applied to the full data set, in order to compute the optical properties of both aerosol types separately. On 16 April a thin ash layer, 100–400 m deep, is observed (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.11 and 0.2); it descends from ∼2800 to ∼1400 m altitude over a 6‐hour period. On 18 April a double ash layer, ∼400 m deep, is observed just above the morning boundary layer (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.19 and 0.27). In the afternoon the ash is entrained into the boundary layer, and the latter reaches a depth of ∼1800 m (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.1 and 0.15). An additional ash layer, with a very small optical depth, was observed on 18 April at an altitude of 3500–4000 m. By converting the lidar optical measurements using estimates of volcanic ash specific extinction, derived from other works, the observations seem to suggest approximate peak ash concentrations of ∼1500 and ∼1000 mg/m3,respectively, on the two observations dates.

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

This study examines the sensitivity of the climate system to volcanic aerosol forcing in the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The main test case was based on the 1880s when there were several volcanic eruptions, the well-known Krakatau being the largest. These eruptions increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations and induced a period of global cooling surface temperatures. In this study, an ensemble of HadCM3 has been integrated with the standard set of radiative forcings and aerosols from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations, from 1860 to present. A second ensemble removes the volcanic aerosols from 1880 to 1899. The all-forcings ensemble shows an attributable 1.2-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 45°N—with a 0.04-PW increase in meridional heat transport at 40°N and increased northern Atlantic SSTs—starting around 1894, approximately 11 years after the first eruption, and lasting a further 10 years at least. The mechanisms responsible are traced to the Arctic, with suppression of the global water cycle (high-latitude precipitation), which leads to an increase in upper-level Arctic and Greenland Sea salinities. This then leads to increased convection in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas, enhanced Denmark Strait overflows, and AMOC changes with density anomalies traceable southward along the western Atlantic boundary. The authors investigate whether a similar response to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 could still be ongoing, but do not find strong evidence.

Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption

1] We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe

On the entrainment assumption in Schatzmann's integral plume model

The behaviour of stationary, non-passive plumes can be simulated in a reasonably simple and accurate way by integral models. One of the key requirements of these models, but also one of their less well-founded aspects, is the entrainment assumption, which parameterizes turbulent mixing between the plume and the environment. The entrainment assumption developed by Schatzmann and adjusted to a set of experimental results requires four constants and an ad hoc hypothesis to eliminate undesirable terms. With this assumption, Schatzmann’s model exhibits numerical instability for certain cases of plumes with small velocity excesses, due to very fast radius growth. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative entrainment assumption based on a first-order turbulence closure, which only requires two adjustable constants and seems to solve this problem. The asymptotic behaviour of the new formulation is studied and compared to previous ones. The validation tests presented by Schatzmann are repeated and it is found that the new formulation not only eliminates numerical instability but also predicts more plausible growth rates for jets in co-flowing streams.