Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

Short-term increase in particulate matter blunts nocturnal blood pressure dipping and daytime urinary sodium excretion

Short-term exposure to ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm were found to be positively associated with blood pressure. Yet, little information exists regarding the association between particles and circadian rhythm of blood pressure. Hence, we analyzed the association of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm on the day of examination and ≤7 days before with ambulatory blood pressure and with sodium excretion in 359 adults from the general population using multiple linear regression. After controlling for potential confounders, a 10-µg/m3 increase in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm levels was associated with nighttime systolic blood pressure (β=1.32 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.06-2.58 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.04), nighttime diastolic blood pressure (0.72 mm Hg 95% CI, 0.03-1.42 mm Hg at lag 2; P=0.04), nocturnal systolic blood pressure dipping (-0.96 mm Hg 95% CI, -1.89 to -0.03 mm Hg at lag 0; P=0.044), and daytime urinary sodium excretion (-0.05 log-mmol/min 95% CI, -0.10 to -0.01 log-mmol/min at lag 0; P=0.027) but not with nighttime sodium excretion. The associations with blood pressure rapidly diminished with increasing lag days, and the associations with daytime sodium excretion were maximal with particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm in exposures 2 to 5 days before. The associations of short-term increases in particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters<10 µm with higher nighttime blood pressure and blunted systolic blood pressure dipping were preceded by associations with reduced ability of the kidney to excrete sodium during daytime. The underlying mechanism linking air pollution to increased cardiovascular risk may include disturbed circadian rhythms of renal sodium handling and blood pressure.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Cardiovascular effects of short term exposure to electric and magnetic fields of electricity power transmission

In the electrical industry the 50 Hz electric and magnetic fields are often higher than in the average working environment. The electric and magnetic fields can be studied by measuring or by calculatingthe fields in the environment. For example, the electric field under a 400 kV power line is 1 to 10 kV/m, and the magnetic flux density is 1 to 15 µT. Electricand magnetic fields of a power line induce a weak electric field and electric currents in the exposed body. The average current density in a human being standing under a 400 kV line is 1 to 2 mA/m2. The aim of this study is to find out thepossible effects of short term exposure to electric and magnetic fields of electricity power transmission on workers' health, in particular the cardiovascular effects. The study consists of two parts; Experiment I: influence on extrasystoles, and Experiment II: influence on heart rate. In Experiment I two groups, 26 voluntary men (Group 1) and 27 transmission-line workers (Group 2), were measured. Their electrocardiogram (ECG) was recorded with an ambulatory recorder both in and outside the field. In Group 1 the fields were 1.7 to 4.9 kV/m and 1.1 to 7.1 pT; in Group 2 they were 0.1 to 10.2 kV/m and 1.0 to 15.4 pT. In the ECG analysis the only significant observation was a decrease in the heart rate after field exposure (Group 1). The drop cannot be explained with the first measuring method. Therefore Experiment II was carried out. In Experiment II two groups were used; Group 1 (26 male volunteers) were measured in real field exposure, Group 2 (15 male volunteers) in "sham" fields. The subjects of Group 1 spent 1 h outside the field, then 1 h in the field under a 400 kV transmission line, and then again 1 h outside the field. Under the 400 kV linethe field strength varied from 3.5 to 4.3 kV/m, and from 1.4 to 6.6 pT. Group 2spent the entire test period (3 h) in a 33 kV outdoor testing station in a "sham" field. ECG, blood pressure, and electroencephalogram (EEG) were measured by ambulatory methods. Before and after the field exposure, the subjects performed some cardiovascular autonomic function tests. The analysis of the results (Experiments I and II) showed that extrasystoles or arrythmias were as frequent in the field (below 4 kV/m and 4 pT) as outside it. In Experiment II there was no decrease detected in the heart rate, and the systolic and diastolic blood pressure stayed nearly the same. No health effects were found in this study.

Short-term effects of particulate matters on pulse pressure in two general population studies.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the association of short-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm (PM10) with pulse pressure, SBP, and DBP taking outdoor temperature into account in two large population-based studies in Switzerland. METHODS: We used data from the Bus Santé study including 5605 adults in Geneva and the CoLaus study including 6183 adults in Lausanne. PM10 and meteorological data were measured from fixed monitoring stations. We analyzed the association of short-term exposure to PM10 (on the day of examination visit and up to 7 days before) with pulse pressure, SBP, and DBP by linear regression, controlling for potential confounders and effect modifiers. RESULTS: Average PM10 levels were 22.4 μg/m in Geneva and 31.7 μg/m in Lausanne. In adjusted models, for each 10 μg/m increase in 7-day PM10 average, pulse pressure and SBP increased by 0.583 (95% confidence interval, 0.296-0.870) mmHg and 0.490 (0.056-0.925) mmHg in Geneva, and 0.183 (0.017-0.348) mmHg and 0.036 (0.042-0.561) mmHg in Lausanne, respectively. Stronger associations of pulse pressure and SBP with PM10 were observed when outdoor temperature was above 5°C. CONCLUSION: Positive associations of pulse pressure and SBP with short-term exposure to PM10 were found and replicated in the Swiss adult population. Our results suggest that even low levels of air pollution may substantially impact cardiovascular risk in the general population.

Cognitive Predictors and Risk Factors of PTSD Following Stillbirth: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study.

This short-term longitudinal study investigated cognitive predictors and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in mothers following stillbirth. After a stillbirth at ≥ 24 weeks gestational age, 65 women completed structured clinical interviews and questionnaires assessing PTSD symptoms, cognitive predictors (appraisals, dysfunctional strategies), and risk factors (perceived social support, trauma history, obstetric history) at 3 and 6 months. PTSD symptoms decreased between 3 and 6 months (Cohen's d ranged .34-.52). Regression analyses also revealed a specific positive relationship between Rumination and concurrent frequency of PTSD symptoms (β = .45). Negative Self-View and Negative World-View related positively and Self-Blame related negatively to concurrent number of PTSD symptoms (β = .48, .44, -.45, respectively). Suppression and Distraction predicted a decrease and Numbing predicted an increase in time-lagged number of PTSD symptoms (β = -.33, -.28, .30, respectively). Risk factors for PTSD symptoms were younger age (β = -.25), lower income (β = -.29), fewer previous pregnancies (β = -.31), and poorer perceived social support (β = -.26). Interventions addressing negative appraisals, dysfunctional strategies, and social support are recommended for mothers with PTSD following stillbirth. Knowledge of cognitive predictors and risk factors of PTSD may inform the development of a screening instrument.

Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Utilisation of Short Term Electricity Derivatives in Industrial Energy Management

Työn päätavoite on selvittää kuinka erityisesti sähkön markkinahinnan ennustamiseen ja johdannaismarkkinoiden tietämykseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen tapahtuu teollisessa energianhallinnassa. Tätä aihetta lähestytään luomalla prosessi lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämiselle. Prosessi esitellään ja selvitetään aina lähtökohdista todelliseen kaupankäyntiin asti erillisen esimerkkitehtaan avulla.Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa perustuu pääosin tulevaisuuden odotuksiin sähkön markkinahinnan kehittymisestä sekä tehtaiden operatiiviseen tilanteeseen. Operatiiviseen tilanteeseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten kaupankäynti on pääasiassa pitkän tähtäimen suojausten sopeuttamista lyhyelle tähtäimelle sopivaksi.Hinnan ennustamisella on suuri rooli lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämisprosessissa. Työssä esitelty hinnan ennustamismalli on sopiva päivä- ja viikkotason Nord Poolin Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamiseen. Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismalli on suunniteltu käytännönläheiseksi ja sen perustana ovat todelliset fysikaaliset ja mitattavat suureet. Futuurimarkkinatietämys on tarpeen lyhyen tähtäimen johdannaisia käytettäessä. Työssä tutkitaan yleisiä markkinoiden odotuksia ja futuurimarkkinoiden tietoisuuden kehittymistä koskien tulevaa vallitsevaa tilannetta. Työssä luodaan myös työkalu, mikä auttaa kaupan laatijaa muodostamaan suuntaa-antavat todennäköisyydet eri hintanäkemyksille ja paikallistamaan mahdolliset markkinoiden epätodennäköiset hintaodotukset.Kokemukset Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismallin soveltamisesta ovat lupaavia. Lisäksi havainnot futuurimarkkinoiden käyttäytymisestä Nord Poolissa ja muodostettu työkalu suuntaa-antavien todennäköisyyksien selvittämiseksi auttavat kaupan laatijaa päätöksenteossa. Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa on periaatteessa mahdollista esitellyn prosessin avulla, vaikka täydellinen käyttöönotto vaatisi vielä joitakin järjestelyjä. Keskittymällä tilanteisiin jotka työssä kuvatulla prosessilla ovat hoidettavissa, työssä määritellyllä menettelyllä on mahdollisuudet saavuttaa epäedullisen hintakehityksen riskin väheneminen ja parempi taloudellinen tulos teollisen energianhallinnan sähkökaupankäynnissä.

Learning-induced gene expression in the heads of two Nasonia species that differ in long-term memory formation.

BACKGROUND: Cellular processes underlying memory formation are evolutionary conserved, but natural variation in memory dynamics between animal species or populations is common. The genetic basis of this fascinating phenomenon is poorly understood. Closely related species of Nasonia parasitic wasps differ in long-term memory (LTM) formation: N. vitripennis will form transcription-dependent LTM after a single conditioning trial, whereas the closely-related species N. giraulti will not. Genes that were differentially expressed (DE) after conditioning in N. vitripennis, but not in N. giraulti, were identified as candidate genes that may regulate LTM formation. RESULTS: RNA was collected from heads of both species before and immediately, 4 or 24 hours after conditioning, with 3 replicates per time point. It was sequenced strand-specifically, which allows distinguishing sense from antisense transcripts and improves the quality of expression analyses. We determined conditioning-induced DE compared to naïve controls for both species. These expression patterns were then analysed with GO enrichment analyses for each species and time point, which demonstrated an enrichment of signalling-related genes immediately after conditioning in N. vitripennis only. Analyses of known LTM genes and genes with an opposing expression pattern between the two species revealed additional candidate genes for the difference in LTM formation. These include genes from various signalling cascades, including several members of the Ras and PI3 kinase signalling pathways, and glutamate receptors. Interestingly, several other known LTM genes were exclusively differentially expressed in N. giraulti, which may indicate an LTM-inhibitory mechanism. Among the DE transcripts were also antisense transcripts. Furthermore, antisense transcripts aligning to a number of known memory genes were detected, which may have a role in regulating these genes. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to describe and compare expression patterns of both protein-coding and antisense transcripts, at different time points after conditioning, of two closely related animal species that differ in LTM formation. Several candidate genes that may regulate differences in LTM have been identified. This transcriptome analysis is a valuable resource for future in-depth studies to elucidate the role of candidate genes and antisense transcription in natural variation in LTM formation.

A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Short-Term Heparin Kinetics during Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (CA-AF) is a treatment option for symptomatic drug-refractory atrial fibrillation (AF). CA-AF carries a risk for thromboembolic complications that has been minimized by the use of intraprocedural intravenous unfractionated heparin (UFH). The optimal administration of UFH as well as its kinetics are not well established and need to be precisely determined. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total 102 of consecutive patients suffering from symptomatic drug-refractory AF underwent CA-AF. The mean age was 61 ± 10 years old. After transseptal puncture of the fossa ovalis, weight-adjusted UFH bolus (100 U/kg) was infused. A significant increase in activated clotting time (ACT) was observed from an average value of 100 ± 27 seconds at baseline, to 355 ± 94 seconds at 10 min (T10), to 375 ± 90 seconds at 20 min (T20). Twenty-four patients failed to reach the targeted ACT value of ≥300 seconds at T10 and more than half of these remained with subtherapeutic ACT values at T20. This subset of patients showed similar clinical characteristics and amount of UFH but were more frequently prescribed preprocedural vitamin K1 than the rest of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: In a typical intervention setting, UFH displays unexpected slow anticoagulation kinetics in a significant proportion of procedures up to 20 minutes after infusion. These findings support the infusion of UFH before transseptal puncture or any left-sided catheterization with early ACT measurements to identify patients with delayed kinetics. They are in line with recent guidelines to perform CA-AF under therapeutic anticoagulation.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM: To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS: Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Short-term HIIT and Fatmax training increase aerobic and metabolic fitness in men with class II and III obesity.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of two different 2-week-long training modalities [continuous at the intensity eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax ) versus high-intensity interval training (HIIT)] in men with class II and III obesity. METHODS: Nineteen men with obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg(.) m(-2) ) were assigned to Fatmax group (GFatmax ) or to HIIT group (GHIIT ). Both groups performed eight cycling sessions matched for mechanical work. Aerobic fitness and fat oxidation rates (FORs) during exercise were assessed prior and following the training. Blood samples were drawn to determine hormones and plasma metabolites levels. Insulin resistance was assessed by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR). RESULTS: Aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise were significantly increased in both groups after training (P ≤ 0.001). HOMA2-IR was significantly reduced only for GFatmax (P ≤ 0.001). Resting non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and insulin decreased significantly only in GFatmax (P ≤ 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Two weeks of HIIT and Fatmax training are effective for the improvement of aerobic fitness and FORs during exercise in these classes of obesity. The decreased levels of resting NEFA only in GFatmax may be involved in the decreased insulin resistance only in this group.