Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Physics and Science Policy Implications of Reduction of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Arsenal

Maintaining the readiness U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is a fundamental pillar of American defense policy. The biggest issue facing the national laboratories that are charged with this mission is replenishing the highly skilled and specialized manpower that is necessary for this task. This lecture presents both physics and science policy questions that must be answered. It also presents employment opportunities for young scientists and engineers.

The European baseline series in 10 European Countries, 2005/2006--results of the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies (ESSCA)

BACKGROUND: Continual surveillance based on patch test results has proved useful for the identification of contact allergy. OBJECTIVES: To provide a current view on the spectrum of contact allergy to important sensitizers across Europe. PATIENTS/METHODS: Clinical and patch test data of 19 793 patients patch tested in 2005/2006 in the 31 participating departments from 10 European countries (the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies' (ESSCA) www.essca-dc.org) were descriptively analysed, aggregated to four European regions. RESULTS: Nickel sulfate remains the most common allergen with standardized prevalences ranging from 19.7% (central Europe) to 24.4% (southern Europe). While a number of allergens shows limited variation across the four regions, such as Myroxylon pereirae (5.3-6.8%), cobalt chloride (6.2-8.8%) or thiuram mix (1.7-2.4%), the differences observed with other allergens may hint on underlying differences in exposures, for example: dichromate 2.4% in the UK (west) versus 4.5-5.9% in the remaining EU regions, methylchloroisothiazolinone/methylisothiazolinone 4.1% in the South versus 2.1-2.7% in the remaining regions. CONCLUSIONS: Notwithstanding residual methodological variation (affecting at least some 'difficult' allergens) tackled by ongoing efforts for standardization, a comparative analysis as presented provides (i) a broad overview on contact allergy frequencies and (ii) interesting starting points for further, in-depth investigation.

Minimal-invasive percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation for U-shaped fractures

STUDY DESIGN Technical note and case series. OBJECTIVE To introduce an innovative minimal-invasive surgical procedure reducing surgery time and blood loss in management of U-shaped sacrum fractures. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND Despite their seldom appearance, U-shaped fractures can cause severe neurological deficits and surgical management difficulties. According to the nature of the injury normally occurring in multi-injured patients after a fall from height, a jump, or road traffic accident, U-shaped fractures create a spinopelvic dissociation and hence are highly unstable. In the past, time-consuming open procedures like large posterior constructs or shortening osteotomies with or without decompression were the method of choice, sacrificing spinal mobility. Insufficient restoration of sacrococcygeal angle and pelvic incidence with conventional techniques may have adverse long-term effects in these patients. METHODS In a consecutive series of 3 patients, percutaneous reduction of the fracture with Schanz pins inserted in either the pedicles of L5 or the S1 body and the posterior superior iliac crest was achieved. The Schanz pins act as lever, allowing a good manipulation of the fracture. The reduction is secured by a temporary external fixator to permit optimal restoration of pelvic incidence and sacral kyphosis. Insertion of 2 transsacral screws allow fixation of the restored spinopelvic alignment. RESULTS Anatomic alignment of the sacrum was possible in each case. Surgery time ranged from 90 to 155 minutes and the blood loss was <50 mL in all 3 cases. Two patients had very good results in the long term regarding maintenance of pelvic incidence and sacrococcygeal angle. One patient with previous cauda equina decompression had loss of correction after 6 months. CONCLUSIONS Percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation offers a less invasive method for treating U-shaped fractures. This can be advantageous in treatment of patients with multiple injuries.

Petrogenesis of rift-related tephrites, phonolites and trachytes (Central European Volcanic Province, Rhon, FRG): Constraints from Sr, Nd, Pb and O isotopes

The volcanic rocks of the Rhön area (Central European Volcanic Province, Germany) belong to a moderately alkali basaltic suite that is associated with minor tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, tephrites, phonolites and trachytes. Based on isotope sytematics (87Sr/86Sr: 0.7033–0.7042; 143Nd/144Nd: 0.51279–0.51287; 206Pb/204Pb: 19.1–19.5), the inferred parental magmas formed by variable degrees of partial melting of a common asthenospheric mantle source (EAR: European Asthenospheric Reservoir of Cebriá and Wilson, 1995). Tephrites, tephriphonolites, phonotephrites, phonolites and trachytes show depletions and enrichments in some trace elements (Sr, Ba, Nb, Zr, Y) indicating that they were generated by broadly similar differentiation processes that were dominated by fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene, amphibole, apatite and titaniferous magnetite ± plagioclase ± alkalifeldspar. The fractionated samples seem to have evolved by two distinct processes. One is characterized by pure fractional crystallization indicated by increasing Nb (and other incompatible trace element) concentrations at virtually constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280 and 87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.7035. The other process involved an assimilation–fractional crystallization (AFC) process where moderate assimilation to crystallization rates produced evolved magmas characterized by higher Nb concentrations at slightly lower 143Nd/144Nd down to 0.51275. Literature data for some of the evolved rocks show more variable 87Sr/86Sr ranging from 0.7037 to 0.7089 at constant 143Nd/144Nd ~ 0.51280. These features may result from assimilation of upper crustal rocks by highly differentiated low-Sr (< 100 ppm Sr) lavas. However, based on the displacement of the differentiated rocks from this study towards lower 143Nd/144Nd ratios and modeled AFC processes in 143Nd/144Nd vs. 87Sr/86Sr and 207Pb/204Pb vs. 143Nd/144Nd space assimilation of lower crustal rocks seems more likely. The view that assimilation of lower crustal rocks played a role is confirmed by high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data that reveal higher 207Pb/204Pb ratios (15.62–15.63) in the differentiated rocks than in the primitive basanites (15.58–15.61). This is compatible with incorporation of radiogenic Pb from lower crustal xenoliths (207Pb/204Pb: 15.63–15.69) into the melt. However, 206Pb/204Pb ratios are similar for the differentiated rocks (19.13–19.35) and the primitive basanites (19.12–19.55) implying that assimilation involved an ancient crustal end member with a higher U/Pb ratio than the mantle source of the basanites. In addition, alteration-corrected δ18O values of the differentiated rocks range from c. 5 to 7‰ which is the same range as observed in the primitive alkaline rocks. This study confirms previous interpretations that highlighted the role of AFC processes in the evolution of alkaline volcanic rocks in the Rhön area of the Central European Volcanic Province.

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and delta18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

Psychological inquiries : in an series of essays, intended to illustrate the mutual relations of the physical organization and the mental faculties

by Sir Benjamin C. Brodie

Gastric cancer survival amongst Hispanics- A Hispanic paradox? A case series study using the SEER 1973--2005 data registry

Stomach cancer is the fourth most common cancer in the world, and ranked 16th in the US in 2008. The age-adjusted rates among Hispanics were 2.8 times that of non-Hispanic Whites in 1998-2002. In spite of that, previous research has found that Hispanics with non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach have a slightly better survival than non-Hispanic Whites. However, such previous research did not include a comparison with African-Americans, and it was limited to data released for the years 1973-2000 in the nine original Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Registries. This finding was interpreted as related to the Hispanic Paradox, a phenomenon that refers to the fact that Hispanics in the USA tend to paradoxically have substantially better health than other ethnic groups in spite of what their aggregate socio-economic indicators would predict. We extended such research to the SEER 17 Registry, 1973-2005, with varying years of diagnosis per registry, and compared the survival of non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach according to ethnicity (Hispanics, non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans), while controlling for age, gender, marital status, stage of disease and treatment using Cox regression survival analysis. We found that Hispanic ethnicity by itself did not confer an advantage on survival from non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach, but that being born abroad was independently associated with the apparent 'Hispanic Paradox' previously reported, and that such advantage was seen among foreign born persons across all race/ethnic groups.^