Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.

Memorias enfrentadas : las reacciones a los informes Nunca Más de Argentina y Chile

This paper analyzes the most immediate responses of human rights institutions, the Armed Forces, political parties, and society following the publication of the Report of the National Commission on the Disappeared (Conadep) in Argentina and the Report of the National Commission for Truth and Reconciliation (CNVR) in Chile. The publication of these reports had a great national significance because, only one year after the reestablishment of democracy, they officially recognized the human rights violations committed during the preceding dictatorships. Each of the four sectors mentioned in this article responded to the reports in its own way, according to its demands and political ideology.

O pragmatismo em economia: bases filosóficas para uma interpretação do discurso econômico

O trabalho tem por objetivo trazer elementos da corrente filosófica do pragmatismo para a discussão metodológica em economia, particularmente no que diz respeito a teoria da verdade e suas implicações para o debate epistemológico. Após apresentar as contribuições dos pioneiros do pragmatismo William James, John Dewey e Charles S. Peirce e discutir aspectos da obra de W. Quine e Richard Rorty, procuramos identificar influências dessa corrente filosófica em importantes economistas tais como J. M. Keynes, M. Friedman e T. Veblen. Por fim concluímos com algumas reflexões possivelmente úteis para a prática da ciência econômica.

Verdade e subjetividade: um ensaio sobre a epistemologia genética

Ao fim do século XX, o discurso da pós-modernidade assinala a desconstrução de conceitos caros ao pensamento ocidental, dentre eles o de verdade e subjetividade. A ciência se defronta com o desafio de, em rompendo com o determinismo laplaciano, encontrar uma nova racionalidade capaz de expressar conceitos como incomensurabilidade,incerteza, acaso, desordem e imprevisibilidade. A Epistemologia Genética, nestes tempos que anunciam a pluralidade, a descontinuidade, a polimorfia e o ecletismo, e um projeto eivado de modernidade, o que faz de seu idealizador Jean Piaget, neste século, o grande narrador da razão analítica ocidental. Tornar a Epistemologia científica foi a tentativa máxima do "antigo futuro ex-filósofo" de nome Jean Piaget, no reencantamento da episteme grega, mantida ainda sua supremacia em relação a doxa. Ambição possível, somente, para quem fez do conhecimento científico sinônimo de verdade e da ciência, a sua própria vida.

Strategic manipulation of empirical tests

Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted.

A narratological analysis of D. M. Thoma`s: the white hotel (1981)

“A Narratological Analysis of D. M. Thomas’s The White Hotel (1981)” originated within a seminar on British Postmodernist Literature during the first Master’s Degree in “British and North-American Culture and Literature” (2001-04) at the Universidade da Madeira set up by the Department of English and German Studies. This dissertation seeks to present a narratological analysis of Thomas’s novel. The White Hotel stands as a paradigmatic example of the kind of literature that has dominated the British literary scene in the past three decades, commonly referred to as postmodernist fiction, owing to its formal craftsmanship (multiplicity of narrative voices and perspectives, mixing of differing genres and text types, inclusion of embedded narratives) alongside the handling of what are deemed as postmodernist topoi (the distinction between truth and lies, history and fantasy, fact and fiction, the questioning of the nature of aesthetic representation, the role the author and the reader hold in the narrative process, the instability of the linguistic sign, the notion of originality and the moral responsibility the author has towards his/her work), The narratological approach carried out in this research reveals that Thomas’s text constitutes an aesthetic endeavour to challenge the teleological drive that is inherent in any narrative, i. e., the inevitable progression towards a reassuring end. Hence, the subversion of narrative telling, which is a recurrent feature in Thomas’s remaining literary output, mirrors the contemporary distrust in totalising, hierarchised and allencompassing narratives. In its handling of historical events, namely of the Holocaust, The White Hotel invites us to reassess the most profound beliefs we were taught to take for granted: progress, reality and truth. In their place the novel proposes a more flexible conception of both the world and art, especially of literary fiction. In other terms, the world appears as a brutal chaotic place the subject is forced to adjust to. Accordingly, the literary work is deemed hybrid, fragmented and open. So as to put forth the above-mentioned issues, this research work is structured in three main chapters. The initial chapter – “What is Postmodernism?” – advances a scrutiny not only of the seminal but also of more recent studies on postmodernist literary criticism. Following this, in Chapter II – “Postmodernist British Fiction” – a brief overview of postmodernist British fiction is carried out, focusing on the fictional works that, in my opinion, are fundamental for the periodising of British postmodernism. In addition, I felt the need to include a section – “D. M. Thomas as a Postmodernist Novelist” – in which the author’s remaining literary output is briefly examined. Finally, Chapter III – “A Narratological Analysis of The White Hotel” – proposes a narratological analysis of the novel according to the particular Genettian analytical model. To conclude, my dissertation constitutes an approach to D. M. Thomas’s The White Hotel as a text whose very existence is substantiated in the foregrounding of the contingency of all discourses, meeting the postmodernist precepts of openness and subversion of any narrative that claims to be true, globalising and all-inclusive.

A prática de atividade física de crianças e adolescentes com e sem epilepsia

The epilepsy is one of the neurological disorders more common in the pediatric period, and which interferes significantly in the psycho and social life of children and teenagers. The objective of this study was analyzing the practice of sedentary practices, physicals, traditional infant fun and games of children and teenagers with and without epilepsy. The study was prospective, transversal descriptive, done with 60 children and teenagers with epilepsy (Epileptic Group - EG) patients from Pediatric Neurology Clinic of the Centre Integrated Health Lineu Araújo and 60 children and teenagers without epilepsy (Control Group - CG) students from municipal public school, both of the two groups paired with the same age (age group 7 to 14 years) of both the genders (female = 25/41,6% and male = 35/58,3%) of the Teresina city Piauí. It was done two pattern questionnaires, one applied to children and teenagers of the EG and CG to identify the sedentary activities, physical and traditional infant games and other to the parents/responsible of the EG about the clinical and demographic information. The results permitted the elaboration of two manuscripts: a) the first one titled The Practice of Sedentary and Physical Activities of Children and Teenagers with Epilepsy which showed significant difference in the sedentary activities of playing with car toy (p=0,021) to the EG and reading to the CG (p=0,001); in the physical activities the school physical education (p=0,001) and riding a bike (p=0,014) to the CG; b) the second one The Practice of Infant Games and Fun the children and teenagers with and without Epilepsy in this one the playing with marble presented significant difference (p=0,016) to the CG, despite the girls of the two groups don t do this activity. Observing the distribution of frequencies, it was verified that in the play catch-up and hide-and-seek and burn the EG plays more than the CG both in female and male gender. The girls of the EG play less skip, 60 while the boys of the two groups don t play. Elastic jump the girls of the two groups play in a same frequency and the boys don t participate of this fun. The seizures were found to occur during: soccer (23,3%); hide-and-seek (6,6%) and running (3,3%). In the sedentary activities, seizures were reported to occur: resting and watching TV (18,3%), sleeping (36,0%); sitting (13,3%) and lying down (11,7%). Our results showed that the epileptic group and the controls group engage in the same activities, although the epileptic group participates less than the controls. Although the EG had presented a bigger percentage of generalized attacks, they don t occur during the practice of formal physical activities. The research was developed by a multidisciplinary team, and this contributed a lot to the realization of this study

Brincar, atividade humana e ferramenta pedagógica no contexto escolar da região metropolitana de natal

This thesis talks about the use of guided educational tools in play and playful in public schools in the Metropolitan Region of Natal (MRN), contributing to the teaching and students learning of basic education in the contents of portuguese and mathematics. We assume that the play is an activity / human need and therefore implies the proper development of children in physical, psychological, biological, cultural, social and historical aspects. We consider the mediation exercised by the teacher in the classroom, and the affection existing between teacher and student, sine qua non terms, so that the truth and fact of the process of teaching and learning occur. Thus, theoretically collaborated Paulo Freire, with his dialogical vision; Lev S. Vygotsky says that we learn and why we develop; Lev S. Vygotsky that states that we learn and for that we develop ourselves; Pierre Bourdieu and the concept of habitus, as something embedded and therefore procedural, and the cultural capital that needs to be fed and (re)meaning at school; Luiz Pereira, Bernard Lahire, Gilles Brougère and others brought their theoretical contributions. The empirical field of research was composed by the Municipal School Professor Ulysses de Góis, located in the neighborhood of Nova Descoberta in Natal, and the Municipal School José Horacio de Góis, located in the community of Guanduba, in São Gonçalo do Amarante, municipalities of the Metropolitan Region of Natal (MRN). We used as methodology the collaborative-action-research as a possible of effective participation of the research subjects, imputing them a voice and performance in the process, and not considering them just observers. The results indicate the effectiveness of the pedagogical tools in play and playful to the learning of students, but that alone is not able to solve all the problems of the school, other referrals need to be secured, as the planning of the actions to be developed in the school and in the classroom, systematized pedagogical orienttion for faculty, family participation/involvement in the school life of students, among other actions that need to be weighted so that education fulfills its role and promote the emancipation of the subject, because in the freireana liberating perspective, "the reading of the world preced the lecture of the word"

Efetivação da garantia de defesa no estado constitucional de direito: colisão entre o poder punitivo e garantia de defesa

The domination of the violence for the Rule of law awakened a tension between the practice of the punitive power and the right to counsel. However, throughout the recent history of the Criminal law, this shock of forces has been determined for the punitive power. In this perspective, the present work intends to submit the guarantee of defense to a critical judgment, in search to conciliate its content to the Constitutional State of Right. For in such a way, it will be necessary to recognize the disequilibrium of the situation, but without considering the superiority of any of these elements. The State in such a way must fulfill the function to punish the culprits as to acquit the innocents. Despite the law is far from obtaining a harmonious speech, it is necessary that the defense guarantee coexists the punitive power as part of an only public interest, which is, to make criminal justice. In such a way, the existence of a sustainable balance between the punitive power and the guarantee of defense depend on the minimum interference of Criminal law and, also, of the judicial position in the concrete case. The present work faces, therefore, the moment of crisis of the Criminal law, consolidated with the advent of a new way of thinking according to the procedural guarantees, that will demand the overcoming of the old concepts. The Constitutional State of Right not only constitutes an efectiveness of the regime of the right to counsel, but in a similar way it searchs to accomplish the right of action and criminal justice as a whole. Knowing that the philosophy of the language raises doubts on the certainty, the truth and the judgement, it is imposed to understand that the defense guarantee is no more about a simple idea, but, in the crooked ways of the communication, we intend to find what the judge s function is when he faces this new reality

Apelação no código de processo civil: uma análise sob o prisma do princípio da efetividade

The present dissertation, elaborated is based on the deductive method, through the use of the General Theory of Resources concepts, by the main types of judgments existing in the Code of Civil Procedure, the interlocutory judgment and sentence, as well as the features and effects that challenge these decisions, we sought to identify on this theme one of the greatest evils facing the justice system in the world, which is the processing delays. This slowness in adjudication affects seriously the principle of effectiveness, one of the postulates of procedural law and society as a whole. Thus, the use of tort serves to fight the interlocutory decision and appeal which challenges the judge`s ruling. It is a resource for excellence in appellate system as it meets with the most awaited decision of the process. In weighing the importance of the appeal that seeks to oppose the court decision today by the numerous reforms that the procedural system has been through, it has ended up to transform the process ineffective or inconsistent, for it is much easier to have efficacy in a interlocutory decision for preliminary injunction than by judgment on the merits of the judge. This is due to the prevision of the resources and their effect to those decisions. That is, the interlocutory decision involves interlocutory appeal only in the devolved effect, allowing its provisional execution, and the sentence has as recourse to appeal the double effect, remanding and suspension, which necessarily prevents its provisional execution. But it undeniably shows a paradox, because as to give effect to a measure that is based on a mere probability by a summary cognition, partial and superficial, and stop it on a decision by a court that is closer to the truth and sure, for a full and depleting cognition? It is seriously affect the principle of effectiveness. Therefore, starting from this ineffectiveness, sought to defend the solution of this problem with the approval of the bill n. º 3.605/2004 or the new Code of Civil Procedure project that modifies the general rule the effects of appeal. That is, remanding and suspensive, as to merely remanding effect to and thereby enable the provisional execution of the judgment of the court of the first degree of jurisdiction, giving effectiveness and enhancing the decision of the magistrate, making a fair distribution of time in the process and better guaranteed principle of access to justice

O direito fundamental contra a autoincriminação: a análise a partir de uma teoria do Processo Penal Constitucional

The right against self-incrimination is a fundamental right that works in the criminal prosecution, and therefore deserves a study supported by the general theory of criminal procedure. The right has a vague origin, and despite the various historical accounts only arises when there is a criminal procedure structured that aims to limit the State´s duty-power to punish. The only system of criminal procedure experienced that reconciles with seal self-incrimination is the accusatory model. The inquisitorial model is based on the construction of a truth and obtaining the confession at any cost, and is therefore incompatible with the right in study. The consecration of the right arises with the importance that fundamental rights have come to occupy in the Democratic Constitutional States. In the Brazilian experience before 1988 was only possible to recognize that self-incrimination represented a procedural burden for accused persons. Despite thorough debate in the Constituent Assembly, the right remains consecrated in a textual formula that´s closer to the implementation made by the Supreme Court of the United States, known as "Miranda warnings", than the text of the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that established originally the right against self-incrimination with a constitutional status. However, the imprecise text does not prevent the consecration of the principle as a fundamental right in Brazilian law. The right against self-incrimination is a right that should be observed in the Criminal Procedure and relates to several of his canons, such as the the presumption of not guilty, the accusatory model, the distribution of the burden of proof, and especially the right of defense. Because it a fundamental right, the prohibition of self-incrimination deserves a proper study to her constitutional nature. For the definition of protected persons is important to build a material concept of accused, which is different of the formal concept over who is denounced on the prosecution. In the objective area of protection, there are two objects of protection of the norm: the instinct of self-preservation of the subject and the ability to self-determination. Configuring essentially a evidence rule in criminal procedure, the analysis of the case should be based on standards set previously to indicate respect for the right. These standard include the right to information of the accused, the right to counsel and respect the voluntary participation. The study of violations cases, concentrated on the element of voluntariness, starting from the definition of what is or is not a coercion violative of self-determination. The right faces new challenges that deserve attention, especially the fight against terrorism and organized crime that force the development of tools, resources and technologies about proves, methods increasingly invasive and hidden, and allow the use of information not only for criminal prosecution, but also for the establishment of an intelligence strategy in the development of national and public security

Mens sana in corpore sano: compreensões de corpo, saúde e educação

This thesis proposes that the idea expressed in Juvenal s quotation Mens Sana in Corpore Sano, produced in the Ancient Greek-Roman civilization includes undestandings of body, heath and education that were reapropriated and reorganized by scientific and pedagogical theories in the XIX and XX centuries. These theories, especially the ones that received contributions from the biomedical sciences, have influenced Physical Education in the search of becoming a science. In order to realize this reapropriation, we have analyzed the transformations in the concepts of body, health and education produced in the area discourse, aiming at pointing out elements to the configuration of a theory that is being called Corpore Sano. The theory constitutes in possible systematization of scientific, philosophical and pedagogical concepts, and as such, an understanding of the scientific fundaments of Physical Education. The corpus of this analysis was composed by 148 articles that were published in Revista Brasileira de Ciências do Esporte digitalized in the period between 1979 and 2003 and selected according to theme: body, biology, physical activity, effort physiology and health. The analysis of the content and the referential interpretation allowed the combination of philosophical reflection with attention to the empiric field as a comprehensive dimension. Based on the corpus of the analysis it is possible to configure meta-arguments about the concepts of body, health and education in the scientific production of Physical Education. As a metaresearch. Our study did not intend to judge the analyzed production, but look for theoretical elements that may generate a reflection about the scientific rationality in Physical Education and developments in the pedagogical field and in body practices. Such a reflection might be recognized as a theory of the living body, susceptible to modifications and interrogations that are proper of knowledge and practices of Physical Education. It is a theory rejects the idea of the complete truth and holds the comprehension that the truth is built historically through relations among different kinds of knowledge and Physical Education practices

A morada do pensamento: um encontro com Platão na busca da natureza do sentido em Frege

The ontological investigation of sense, from German philosopher Gottlob Frege s point of view, has, as its foundation, the understanding of reference, representation, thought and sense s categories. According to Frege s writings, On Sense and Reference, and Thoughts Logical Investigations, sense carries itself the solution for the problem of identity s relation. Sense gives us the knowledge s increment that identity doesn t give. But still there is a problem: the definition of sense's nature. Sense couldn t have its nature strictly defined because, in this case, it would be reduced to reference s category and thus, sense would be identified with the own extra-linguistic object, and this is a misconception. But Frege said that thought must be considered as the sense of the sentence. So, with this close relationship between sense and thought, a new goal in this investigation is putt in focus: thought. To Frege, thought is not a simple subjective performance of thinking, it is not a subjective representation, but it is an objective content that is real, eternal, and that exists by itself in a third realm . Thought exists in a realm beyond the world of subjective representations and beyond the world of sensible perception. From this point, the present investigation went back to Plato s World of Ideas. So, the platonic thinking was included in this debate about the metaphysic of the third realm in Frege, trying to clarify the original concepts of knowledge, reality and truth. To achieve this objective, the following dialogues had been included in our research: Theaetetus, Republic and Phaedo. And the following fregean questions had been brought to Plato's scope: how happens the new knowledge? What is the third realm s reality? What is the relation between truth and thought? Doing that we could see as much some of the platonic origins of Frege's approach, as some differences between this two philosophers

O cuidado e a ética do cuidado: um diálogo entre Leonardo Boff, Carol Gilligam e Nel Noddings

To elucidate the important contribution of care ethics in improving human relations and social intimates, this work reveals the fragility and lack of ethics on the formation of a just society, equal, peaceful and caring. To this end, we study on the moral development of men and women, warning of the natural differences between the sexes, which change for both the way of seeing life and live it - which does not imply inferiority to some genres. From this study it is clear that the natural care is innate to humans, it provides a tendency to act for the good of all life forms and nature as a whole. But it is evident here a greater sensitivity of women to such care because they possess perception and more emotion than men, which make them more participatory and involved in relationships. This greater openness to care found in women, due in part to the strong and lasting relationship with their mothers. Thus is revealed the power that women have to positively change the direction of human relationships, providing careful with your example, protective and caring, the awakening of a new and comprehensive ethics - opens to the truth, and features especially for affections. Therefore, the care ethics arises from the life experiences of women and aims, through them, to join the men's morality in order to bring out the relevant fact of interdependence between human beings, of human fragility and the need for relationships to the fullness of life

A crítica hegeliana do entendimento e a perspectiva da razão

The aim of this work is to present the critic of Hegel to the form of thinking of the Understanding (Verstand) and the perspective of a new concept of Reason (Vernunft) or rationality that then appears, and this tends as base the three moments of the logical process (the moment of the Understanding, Dialectical and the Speculative) presented by Hegel in the Encyclopedia of the Philosophical Sciences. It will be shown that this critic is done immanent to the own philosophy of Hegel, because the Understanding is so much the object of the critic, as one of the moments that constitute the own process logical-dialectic (method dialectic) that defines the rationality hegelian. Starting from that insert of the Understanding in the own Reason, we will see that the critic of Hegel won't just feel in a destructive way, in a such way that the Understanding totally goes denied, but before it will elevate this same Understanding at the level of the Reason speculative, removing like this your assumed place of absolute university of the truth and pointing it in your true place.