MMonCa: A flexible and powerful new Kinetic Monte Carlo simulator

Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a widely used technique to simulate the evolution of radiation damage inside solids. Despite de fact that this technique was developed several decades ago, there is not an established and easy to access simulating tool for researchers interested in this field, unlike in the case of molecular dynamics or density functional theory calculations. In fact, scientists must develop their own tools or use unmaintained ones in order to perform these types of simulations. To fulfil this need, we have developed MMonCa, the Modular Monte Carlo simulator. MMonCa has been developed using professional C++ programming techniques and has been built on top of an interpreted language to allow having a powerful yet flexible, robust but customizable and easy to access modern simulator. Both non lattice and Lattice KMC modules have been developed. We will present in this conference, for the first time, the MMonCa simulator. Along with other (more detailed) contributions in this meeting, the versatility of MMonCa to study a number of problems in different materials (particularly, Fe and W) subject to a wide range of conditions will be shown. Regarding KMC simulations, we have studied neutron-generated cascade evolution in Fe (as a model material). Starting with a Frenkel pair distribution we have followed the defect evolution up to 450 K. Comparison with previous simulations and experiments shows excellent agreement. Furthermore, we have studied a more complex system (He-irradiated W:C) using a previous parametrization [1]. He-irradiation at 4 K followed by isochronal annealing steps up to 500 K has been simulated with MMonCa. The He energy was 400 eV or 3 keV. In the first case, no damage is associated to the He implantation, whereas in the second one, a significant Frenkel pair concentration (evolving into complex clusters) is associated to the He ions. We have been able to explain He desorption both in the absence and in the presence of Frenkel pairs and we have also applied MMonCa to high He doses and fluxes at elevated temperatures. He migration and trapping dominate the kinetics of He desorption. These processes will be discussed and compared to experimental results. [1] C.S. Becquart et al. J. Nucl. Mater. 403 (2010) 75

A comparative study of Monte Carlo-coupled depletion codes applied to a Sodium Fast Reactor design loaded with minor actinides

inor actinides (MAs) transmutation is a main design objective of advanced nuclear systems such as generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). In advanced fuel cycles, MA contents in final high level waste packages are main contributors to short term heat production as well as to long-term radiotoxicity. Therefore, MA transmutation would have an impact on repository designs and would reduce the environment burden of nuclear energy. In order to predict such consequences Monte Carlo (MC) transport codes are used in reactor design tasks and they are important complements and references for routinely used deterministic computational tools. In this paper two promising Monte Carlo transport-coupled depletion codes, EVOLCODE and SERPENT, are used to examine the impact of MA burning strategies in a SFR core, 3600 MWth. The core concept proposal for MA loading in two configurations is the result of an optimization effort upon a preliminary reference design to reduce the reactivity insertion as a consequence of sodium voiding, one of the main concerns of this technology. The objective of this paper is double. Firstly, efficiencies of the two core configurations for MA transmutation are addressed and evaluated in terms of actinides mass changes and reactivity coefficients. Results are compared with those without MA loading. Secondly, a comparison of the two codes is provided. The discrepancies in the results are quantified and discussed.

A stochastic model updating method for parameter variability quantification based on response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic model updating must be considered for quantifying uncertainties inherently existing in real-world engineering structures. By this means the statistical properties,instead of deterministic values, of structural parameters can be sought indicating the parameter variability. However, the implementation of stochastic model updating is much more complicated than that of deterministic methods particularly in the aspects of theoretical complexity and low computational efficiency. This study attempts to propose a simple and cost-efficient method by decomposing a stochastic updating process into a series of deterministic ones with the aid of response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface models are used as surrogates for original FE models in the interest of programming simplification, fast response computation and easy inverse optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for generating samples from the assumed or measured probability distributions of responses. Each sample corresponds to an individual deterministic inverse process predicting the deterministic values of parameters. Then the parameter means and variances can be statistically estimated based on all the parameter predictions by running all the samples. Meanwhile, the analysis of variance approach is employed for the evaluation of parameter variability significance. The proposed method has been demonstrated firstly on a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical steel plates tested in the laboratory. It is found that compared with the existing stochastic model updating methods, the proposed method presents similar accuracy while its primary merits consist in its simple implementation and cost efficiency in response computation and inverse optimization.

FocusDET, a new toolbox for SISCOM analysis. Evaluation of the registration accuracy using monte carlo simulation

Subtraction of Ictal SPECT Co-registered to MRI (SISCOM) is an imaging technique used to localize the epileptogenic focus in patients with intractable partial epilepsy. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of registration algorithms involved in SISCOM analysis using FocusDET, a new user-friendly application. To this end, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to generate realistic SPECT studies. Simulated sinograms were reconstructed by using the Filtered BackProjection (FBP) algorithm and an Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM) reconstruction method that included compensation for all degradations. Registration errors in SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration were evaluated by comparing the theoretical and actual transforms. Patient studies with well-localized epilepsy were also included in the registration assessment. Global registration errors including SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration errors were less than 1.2 mm on average, exceeding the voxel size (3.32 mm) of SPECT studies in no case. Although images reconstructed using OSEM led to lower registration errors than images reconstructed with FBP, differences after using OSEM or FBP in reconstruction were less than 0.2 mm on average. This indicates that correction for degradations does not play a major role in the SISCOM process, thereby facilitating the application of the methodology in centers where OSEM is not implemented with correction of all degradations. These findings together with those obtained by clinicians from patients via MRI, interictal and ictal SPECT and video-EEG, show that FocusDET is a robust application for performing SISCOM analysis in clinical practice.

Monte Carlo Neutronics and Thermal-hydraulics coupling applied to Fast Reactors

Un escenario habitualmente considerado para el uso sostenible y prolongado de la energía nuclear contempla un parque de reactores rápidos refrigerados por metales líquidos (LMFR) dedicados al reciclado de Pu y la transmutación de actínidos minoritarios (MA). Otra opción es combinar dichos reactores con algunos sistemas subcríticos asistidos por acelerador (ADS), exclusivamente destinados a la eliminación de MA. El diseño y licenciamiento de estos reactores innovadores requiere herramientas computacionales prácticas y precisas, que incorporen el conocimiento obtenido en la investigación experimental de nuevas configuraciones de reactores, materiales y sistemas. A pesar de que se han construido y operado un cierto número de reactores rápidos a nivel mundial, la experiencia operacional es todavía reducida y no todos los transitorios se han podido entender completamente. Por tanto, los análisis de seguridad de nuevos LMFR están basados fundamentalmente en métodos deterministas, al contrario que las aproximaciones modernas para reactores de agua ligera (LWR), que se benefician también de los métodos probabilistas. La aproximación más usada en los estudios de seguridad de LMFR es utilizar una variedad de códigos, desarrollados a base de distintas teorías, en busca de soluciones integrales para los transitorios e incluyendo incertidumbres. En este marco, los nuevos códigos para cálculos de mejor estimación ("best estimate") que no incluyen aproximaciones conservadoras, son de una importancia primordial para analizar estacionarios y transitorios en reactores rápidos. Esta tesis se centra en el desarrollo de un código acoplado para realizar análisis realistas en reactores rápidos críticos aplicando el método de Monte Carlo. Hoy en día, dado el mayor potencial de recursos computacionales, los códigos de transporte neutrónico por Monte Carlo se pueden usar de manera práctica para realizar cálculos detallados de núcleos completos, incluso de elevada heterogeneidad material. Además, los códigos de Monte Carlo se toman normalmente como referencia para los códigos deterministas de difusión en multigrupos en aplicaciones con reactores rápidos, porque usan secciones eficaces punto a punto, un modelo geométrico exacto y tienen en cuenta intrínsecamente la dependencia angular de flujo. En esta tesis se presenta una metodología de acoplamiento entre el conocido código MCNP, que calcula la generación de potencia en el reactor, y el código de termohidráulica de subcanal COBRA-IV, que obtiene las distribuciones de temperatura y densidad en el sistema. COBRA-IV es un código apropiado para aplicaciones en reactores rápidos ya que ha sido validado con resultados experimentales en haces de barras con sodio, incluyendo las correlaciones más apropiadas para metales líquidos. En una primera fase de la tesis, ambos códigos se han acoplado en estado estacionario utilizando un método iterativo con intercambio de archivos externos. El principal problema en el acoplamiento neutrónico y termohidráulico en estacionario con códigos de Monte Carlo es la manipulación de las secciones eficaces para tener en cuenta el ensanchamiento Doppler cuando la temperatura del combustible aumenta. Entre todas las opciones disponibles, en esta tesis se ha escogido la aproximación de pseudo materiales, y se ha comprobado que proporciona resultados aceptables en su aplicación con reactores rápidos. Por otro lado, los cambios geométricos originados por grandes gradientes de temperatura en el núcleo de reactores rápidos resultan importantes para la neutrónica como consecuencia del elevado recorrido libre medio del neutrón en estos sistemas. Por tanto, se ha desarrollado un módulo adicional que simula la geometría del reactor en caliente y permite estimar la reactividad debido a la expansión del núcleo en un transitorio. éste módulo calcula automáticamente la longitud del combustible, el radio de la vaina, la separación de los elementos de combustible y el radio de la placa soporte en función de la temperatura. éste efecto es muy relevante en transitorios sin inserción de bancos de parada. También relacionado con los cambios geométricos, se ha implementado una herramienta que, automatiza el movimiento de las barras de control en busca d la criticidad del reactor, o bien calcula el valor de inserción axial las barras de control. Una segunda fase en la plataforma de cálculo que se ha desarrollado es la simulació dinámica. Puesto que MCNP sólo realiza cálculos estacionarios para sistemas críticos o supercríticos, la solución más directa que se propone sin modificar el código fuente de MCNP es usar la aproximación de factorización de flujo, que resuelve por separado la forma del flujo y la amplitud. En este caso se han estudiado en profundidad dos aproximaciones: adiabática y quasiestática. El método adiabático usa un esquema de acoplamiento que alterna en el tiempo los cálculos neutrónicos y termohidráulicos. MCNP calcula el modo fundamental de la distribución de neutrones y la reactividad al final de cada paso de tiempo, y COBRA-IV calcula las propiedades térmicas en el punto intermedio de los pasos de tiempo. La evolución de la amplitud de flujo se calcula resolviendo las ecuaciones de cinética puntual. Este método calcula la reactividad estática en cada paso de tiempo que, en general, difiere de la reactividad dinámica que se obtendría con la distribución de flujo exacta y dependiente de tiempo. No obstante, para entornos no excesivamente alejados de la criticidad ambas reactividades son similares y el método conduce a resultados prácticos aceptables. Siguiendo esta línea, se ha desarrollado después un método mejorado para intentar tener en cuenta el efecto de la fuente de neutrones retardados en la evolución de la forma del flujo durante el transitorio. El esquema consiste en realizar un cálculo cuasiestacionario por cada paso de tiempo con MCNP. La simulación cuasiestacionaria se basa EN la aproximación de fuente constante de neutrones retardados, y consiste en dar un determinado peso o importancia a cada ciclo computacial del cálculo de criticidad con MCNP para la estimación del flujo final. Ambos métodos se han verificado tomando como referencia los resultados del código de difusión COBAYA3 frente a un ejercicio común y suficientemente significativo. Finalmente, con objeto de demostrar la posibilidad de uso práctico del código, se ha simulado un transitorio en el concepto de reactor crítico en fase de diseño MYRRHA/FASTEF, de 100 MW de potencia térmica y refrigerado por plomo-bismuto. ABSTRACT Long term sustainable nuclear energy scenarios envisage a fleet of Liquid Metal Fast Reactors (LMFR) for the Pu recycling and minor actinides (MAs) transmutation or combined with some accelerator driven systems (ADS) just for MAs elimination. Design and licensing of these innovative reactor concepts require accurate computational tools, implementing the knowledge obtained in experimental research for new reactor configurations, materials and associated systems. Although a number of fast reactor systems have already been built, the operational experience is still reduced, especially for lead reactors, and not all the transients are fully understood. The safety analysis approach for LMFR is therefore based only on deterministic methods, different from modern approach for Light Water Reactors (LWR) which also benefit from probabilistic methods. Usually, the approach adopted in LMFR safety assessments is to employ a variety of codes, somewhat different for the each other, to analyze transients looking for a comprehensive solution and including uncertainties. In this frame, new best estimate simulation codes are of prime importance in order to analyze fast reactors steady state and transients. This thesis is focused on the development of a coupled code system for best estimate analysis in fast critical reactor. Currently due to the increase in the computational resources, Monte Carlo methods for neutrons transport can be used for detailed full core calculations. Furthermore, Monte Carlo codes are usually taken as reference for deterministic diffusion multigroups codes in fast reactors applications because they employ point-wise cross sections in an exact geometry model and intrinsically account for directional dependence of the ux. The coupling methodology presented here uses MCNP to calculate the power deposition within the reactor. The subchannel code COBRA-IV calculates the temperature and density distribution within the reactor. COBRA-IV is suitable for fast reactors applications because it has been validated against experimental results in sodium rod bundles. The proper correlations for liquid metal applications have been added to the thermal-hydraulics program. Both codes are coupled at steady state using an iterative method and external files exchange. The main issue in the Monte Carlo/thermal-hydraulics steady state coupling is the cross section handling to take into account Doppler broadening when temperature rises. Among every available options, the pseudo materials approach has been chosen in this thesis. This approach obtains reasonable results in fast reactor applications. Furthermore, geometrical changes caused by large temperature gradients in the core, are of major importance in fast reactor due to the large neutron mean free path. An additional module has therefore been included in order to simulate the reactor geometry in hot state or to estimate the reactivity due to core expansion in a transient. The module automatically calculates the fuel length, cladding radius, fuel assembly pitch and diagrid radius with the temperature. This effect will be crucial in some unprotected transients. Also related to geometrical changes, an automatic control rod movement feature has been implemented in order to achieve a just critical reactor or to calculate control rod worth. A step forward in the coupling platform is the dynamic simulation. Since MCNP performs only steady state calculations for critical systems, the more straight forward option without modifying MCNP source code, is to use the flux factorization approach solving separately the flux shape and amplitude. In this thesis two options have been studied to tackle time dependent neutronic simulations using a Monte Carlo code: adiabatic and quasistatic methods. The adiabatic methods uses a staggered time coupling scheme for the time advance of neutronics and the thermal-hydraulics calculations. MCNP computes the fundamental mode of the neutron flux distribution and the reactivity at the end of each time step and COBRA-IV the thermal properties at half of the the time steps. To calculate the flux amplitude evolution a solver of the point kinetics equations is used. This method calculates the static reactivity in each time step that in general is different from the dynamic reactivity calculated with the exact flux distribution. Nevertheless, for close to critical situations, both reactivities are similar and the method leads to acceptable practical results. In this line, an improved method as an attempt to take into account the effect of delayed neutron source in the transient flux shape evolutions is developed. The scheme performs a quasistationary calculation per time step with MCNP. This quasistationary simulations is based con the constant delayed source approach, taking into account the importance of each criticality cycle in the final flux estimation. Both adiabatic and quasistatic methods have been verified against the diffusion code COBAYA3, using a theoretical kinetic exercise. Finally, a transient in a critical 100 MWth lead-bismuth-eutectic reactor concept is analyzed using the adiabatic method as an application example in a real system.

Review and comparison of effective delayed neutron fraction calculation methods with Monte Carlo codes

The calculation of the effective delayed neutron fraction, beff , with Monte Carlo codes is a complex task due to the requirement of properly considering the adjoint weighting of delayed neutrons. Nevertheless, several techniques have been proposed to circumvent this difficulty and obtain accurate Monte Carlo results for beff without the need of explicitly determining the adjoint flux. In this paper, we make a review of some of these techniques; namely we have analyzed two variants of what we call the k-eigenvalue technique and other techniques based on different interpretations of the physical meaning of the adjoint weighting. To test the validity of all these techniques we have implemented them with the MCNPX code and we have benchmarked them against a range of critical and subcritical systems for which either experimental or deterministic values of beff are available. Furthermore, several nuclear data libraries have been used in order to assess the impact of the uncertainty in nuclear data in the calculated value of beff .

Feasibility assessment of the interactive use of a Monte Carlo algorithm in treatment planning for intraoperative electron radiation therapy

This work analysed the feasibility of using a fast, customized Monte Carlo (MC) method to perform accurate computation of dose distributions during pre- and intraplanning of intraoperative electron radiation therapy (IOERT) procedures. The MC method that was implemented, which has been integrated into a specific innovative simulation and planning tool, is able to simulate the fate of thousands of particles per second, and it was the aim of this work to determine the level of interactivity that could be achieved. The planning workflow enabled calibration of the imaging and treatment equipment, as well as manipulation of the surgical frame and insertion of the protection shields around the organs at risk and other beam modifiers. In this way, the multidisciplinary team involved in IOERT has all the tools necessary to perform complex MC dosage simulations adapted to their equipment in an efficient and transparent way. To assess the accuracy and reliability of this MC technique, dose distributions for a monoenergetic source were compared with those obtained using a general-purpose software package used widely in medical physics applications. Once accuracy of the underlying simulator was confirmed, a clinical accelerator was modelled and experimental measurements in water were conducted. A comparison was made with the output from the simulator to identify the conditions under which accurate dose estimations could be obtained in less than 3 min, which is the threshold imposed to allow for interactive use of the tool in treatment planning. Finally, a clinically relevant scenario, namely early-stage breast cancer treatment, was simulated with pre- and intraoperative volumes to verify that it was feasible to use the MC tool intraoperatively and to adjust dose delivery based on the simulation output, without compromising accuracy. The workflow provided a satisfactory model of the treatment head and the imaging system, enabling proper configuration of the treatment planning system and providing good accuracy in the dosage simulation.

Adsorption of Supercritical fluids on graphitised thermal carbon black: Molecular layer structure theory versus grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation

This paper presents a detailed analysis of adsorption of supercritical fluids on nonporous graphitized thermal carbon black. Two methods are employed in the analysis. One is the molecular layer structure theory (MLST), proposed recently by our group, and the other is the grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation. They were applied to describe the adsorption of argon, krypton, methane, ethylene, and sulfur hexafluoride on graphitized thermal carbon black. It was found that the MLST describes all the experimental data at various temperatures well. Results from GCMC simulations describe well the data at low pressure but show some deviations at higher pressures for all the adsorbates tested. The question of negative surface excess is also discussed in this paper.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.

Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations of methane in potassium montmorillonite clay hydrates at elevated pressures and temperatures

The structure and dynamics of methane in hydrated potassium montmorillonite clay have been studied under conditions encountered in sedimentary basin and compared to those of hydrated sodium montmorillonite clay using computer simulation techniques. The simulated systems contain two molecular layers of water and followed gradients of 150 barkm-1 and 30 Kkm-1 up to a maximum burial depth of 6 km. Methane particle is coordinated to about 19 oxygen atoms, with 6 of these coming from the clay surface oxygen. Potassium ions tend to move away from the center towards the clay surface, in contrast to the behavior observed with the hydrated sodium form. The clay surface affinity for methane was found to be higher in the hydrated K-form. Methane diffusion in the two-layer hydrated K-montmorillonite increases from 0.39×10-9 m2s-1 at 280 K to 3.27×10-9 m2s-1 at 460 K compared to 0.36×10-9 m2s-1 at 280 K to 4.26×10-9 m2s-1 at 460 K in Na-montmorillonite hydrate. The distributions of the potassium ions were found to vary in the hydrates when compared to those of sodium form. Water molecules were also found to be very mobile in the potassium clay hydrates compared to sodium clay hydrates. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All All rights reserved.

Collimation of a D-D Neutron Generator for Clinical Implementation of Neutron Stimulated Emission Computed Tomography: a Monte Carlo Study

This work is an investigation into collimator designs for a deuterium-deuterium (DD) neutron generator for an inexpensive and compact neutron imaging system that can be implemented in a hospital. The envisioned application is for a spectroscopic imaging technique called neutron stimulated emission computed tomography (NSECT).

Previous NSECT studies have been performed using a Van-de-Graaff accelerator at the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL) in Duke University. This facility has provided invaluable research into the development of NSECT. To transition the current imaging method into a clinically feasible system, there is a need for a high-intensity fast neutron source that can produce collimated beams. The DD neutron generator from Adelphi Technologies Inc. is being explored as a possible candidate to provide the uncollimated neutrons. This DD generator is a compact source that produces 2.5 MeV fast neutrons with intensities of 1012 n/s (4π). The neutron energy is sufficient to excite most isotopes of interest in the body with the exception of carbon and oxygen. However, a special collimator is needed to collimate the 4π neutron emission into a narrow beam. This work describes the development and evaluation of a series of collimator designs to collimate the DD generator for narrow beams suitable for NSECT imaging.

A neutron collimator made of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and lead was modeled and simulated using the GEANT4 toolkit. The collimator was designed as a 52 x 52 x 52 cm3 HDPE block coupled with 1 cm lead shielding. Non-tapering (cylindrical) and tapering (conical) opening designs were modeled into the collimator to permit passage of neutrons. The shape, size, and geometry of the aperture were varied to assess the effects on the collimated neutron beam. Parameters varied were: inlet diameter (1-5 cm), outlet diameter (1-5 cm), aperture diameter (0.5-1.5 cm), and aperture placement (13-39 cm). For each combination of collimator parameters, the spatial and energy distributions of neutrons and gammas were tracked and analyzed to determine three performance parameters: neutron beam-width, primary neutron flux, and the output quality. To evaluate these parameters, the simulated neutron beams are then regenerated for a NSECT breast scan. Scan involved a realistic breast lesion implanted into an anthropomorphic female phantom.

This work indicates potential for collimating and shielding a DD neutron generator for use in a clinical NSECT system. The proposed collimator designs produced a well-collimated neutron beam that can be used for NSECT breast imaging. The aperture diameter showed a strong correlation to the beam-width, where the collimated neutron beam-width was about 10% larger than the physical aperture diameter. In addition, a collimator opening consisting of a tapering inlet and cylindrical outlet allowed greater neutron throughput when compared to a simple cylindrical opening. The tapering inlet design can allow additional neutron throughput when the neck is placed farther from the source. On the other hand, the tapering designs also decrease output quality (i.e. increase in stray neutrons outside the primary collimated beam). All collimators are cataloged in measures of beam-width, neutron flux, and output quality. For a particular NSECT application, an optimal choice should be based on the collimator specifications listed in this work.

Aplicação do método de Monte Carlo no estudo da padronização de radionuclídeos com esquema de desintegração complexos em sistema de coincidencias 4-pi-beta-gama

Tese (Doutoramento)

A medida e as escalas de avaliação da saúde das populações neonatais e pediátricas : estudo de simulação de Monte Carlo com variáveis ordinais

A investigação na área da saúde e a utilização dos seus resultados tem funcionado como base para a melhoria da qualidade de cuidados, exigindo dos profissionais de saúde conhecimentos na área específica onde desempenham funções, conhecimentos em metodologia de investigação que incluam as técnicas de observação, técnicas de recolha e análise de dados, para mais facilmente serem leitores capacitados dos resultados da investigação. Os profissionais de saúde são observadores privilegiados das respostas humanas à saúde e à doença, podendo contribuir para o desenvolvimento e bem-estar dos indivíduos muitas vezes em situações de grande vulnerabilidade. Em saúde infantil e pediatria o enfoque está nos cuidados centrados na família privilegiando-se o desenvolvimento harmonioso da criança e jovem, valorizando os resultados mensuráveis em saúde que permitam determinar a eficácia das intervenções e a qualidade de saúde e de vida. No contexto pediátrico realçamos as práticas baseadas na evidência, a importância atribuída à pesquisa e à aplicação dos resultados da investigação nas práticas clínicas, assim como o desenvolvimento de instrumentos de mensuração padronizados, nomeadamente as escalas de avaliação, de ampla utilização clínica, que facilitam a apreciação e avaliação do desenvolvimento e da saúde das crianças e jovens e resultem em ganhos em saúde. A observação de forma sistematizada das populações neonatais e pediátricas com escalas de avaliação tem vindo a aumentar, o que tem permitido um maior equilíbrio na avaliação das crianças e também uma observação baseada na teoria e nos resultados da investigação. Alguns destes aspetos serviram de base ao desenvolvimento deste trabalho que pretende dar resposta a 3 objetivos fundamentais. Para dar resposta ao primeiro objetivo, “Identificar na literatura científica, os testes estatísticos mais frequentemente utilizados pelos investigadores da área da saúde infantil e pediatria quando usam escalas de avaliação” foi feita uma revisão sistemática da literatura, que tinha como objetivo analisar artigos científicos cujos instrumentos de recolha de dados fossem escalas de avaliação, na área da saúde da criança e jovem, desenvolvidas com variáveis ordinais, e identificar os testes estatísticos aplicados com estas variáveis. A análise exploratória dos artigos permitiu-nos verificar que os investigadores utilizam diferentes instrumentos com diferentes formatos de medida ordinal (com 3, 4, 5, 7, 10 pontos) e tanto aplicam testes paramétricos como não paramétricos, ou os dois em simultâneo, com este tipo de variáveis, seja qual for a dimensão da amostra. A descrição da metodologia nem sempre explicita se são cumpridas as assunções dos testes. Os artigos consultados nem sempre fazem referência à distribuição de frequência das variáveis (simetria/assimetria) nem à magnitude das correlações entre os itens. A leitura desta bibliografia serviu de suporte à elaboração de dois artigos, um de revisão sistemática da literatura e outro de reflexão teórica. Apesar de terem sido encontradas algumas respostas às dúvidas com que os investigadores e os profissionais, que trabalham com estes instrumentos, se deparam, verifica-se a necessidade de desenvolver estudos de simulação que confirmem algumas situações reais e alguma teoria já existente, e trabalhem outros aspetos nos quais se possam enquadrar os cenários reais de forma a facilitar a tomada de decisão dos investigadores e clínicos que utilizam escalas de avaliação. Para dar resposta ao segundo objetivo “Comparar a performance, em termos de potência e probabilidade de erro de tipo I, das 4 estatísticas da MANOVA paramétrica com 2 estatísticas da MANOVA não paramétrica quando se utilizam variáveis ordinais correlacionadas, geradas aleatoriamente”, desenvolvemos um estudo de simulação, através do Método de Monte Carlo, efetuado no Software R. O delineamento do estudo de simulação incluiu um vetor com 3 variáveis dependentes, uma variável independente (fator com três grupos), escalas de avaliação com um formato de medida com 3, 4, 5, e 7 pontos, diferentes probabilidades marginais (p1 para distribuição simétrica, p2 para distribuição assimétrica positiva, p3 para distribuição assimétrica negativa e p4 para distribuição uniforme) em cada um dos três grupos, correlações de baixa, média e elevada magnitude (r=0.10, r=0.40, r=0.70, respetivamente), e seis dimensões de amostras (n=30, 60, 90, 120, 240, 300). A análise dos resultados permitiu dizer que a maior raiz de Roy foi a estatística que apresentou estimativas de probabilidade de erro de tipo I e de potência de teste mais elevadas. A potência dos testes apresenta comportamentos diferentes, dependendo da distribuição de frequência da resposta aos itens, da magnitude das correlações entre itens, da dimensão da amostra e do formato de medida da escala. Tendo por base a distribuição de frequência, considerámos três situações distintas: a primeira (com probabilidades marginais p1,p1,p4 e p4,p4,p1) em que as estimativas da potência eram muito baixas, nos diferentes cenários; a segunda situação (com probabilidades marginais p2,p3,p4; p1,p2,p3 e p2,p2,p3) em que a magnitude das potências é elevada, nas amostras com dimensão superior ou igual a 60 observações e nas escalas com 3, 4,5 pontos e potências de magnitude menos elevada nas escalas com 7 pontos, mas com a mesma ma magnitude nas amostras com dimensão igual a 120 observações, seja qual for o cenário; a terceira situação (com probabilidades marginais p1,p1,p2; p1,p2,p4; p2,p2,p1; p4,p4,p2 e p2,p2,p4) em que quanto maiores, a intensidade das correlações entre itens e o número de pontos da escala, e menor a dimensão das amostras, menor a potência dos testes, sendo o lambda de Wilks aplicado às ordens mais potente do que todas as outra s estatísticas da MANOVA, com valores imediatamente a seguir à maior raiz de Roy. No entanto, a magnitude das potências dos testes paramétricos e não paramétricos assemelha-se nas amostras com dimensão superior a 90 observações (com correlações de baixa e média magnitude), entre as variáveis dependentes nas escalas com 3, 4 e 5 pontos; e superiores a 240 observações, para correlações de baixa intensidade, nas escalas com 7 pontos. No estudo de simulação e tendo por base a distribuição de frequência, concluímos que na primeira situação de simulação e para os diferentes cenários, as potências são de baixa magnitude devido ao facto de a MANOVA não detetar diferenças entre grupos pela sua similaridade. Na segunda situação de simulação e para os diferentes cenários, a magnitude das potências é elevada em todos os cenários cuja dimensão da amostra seja superior a 60 observações, pelo que é possível aplicar testes paramétricos. Na terceira situação de simulação, e para os diferentes cenários quanto menor a dimensão da amostra e mais elevada a intensidade das correlações e o número de pontos da escala, menor a potência dos testes, sendo a magnitude das potências mais elevadas no teste de Wilks aplicado às ordens, seguido do traço de Pillai aplicado às ordens. No entanto, a magnitude das potências dos testes paramétricos e não paramétricos assemelha-se nas amostras com maior dimensão e correlações de baixa e média magnitude. Para dar resposta ao terceiro objetivo “Enquadrar os resultados da aplicação da MANOVA paramétrica e da MANOVA não paramétrica a dados reais provenientes de escalas de avaliação com um formato de medida com 3, 4, 5 e 7 pontos, nos resultados do estudo de simulação estatística” utilizaram-se dados reais que emergiram da observação de recém-nascidos com a escala de avaliação das competências para a alimentação oral, Early Feeding Skills (EFS), o risco de lesões da pele, com a Neonatal Skin Risk Assessment Scale (NSRAS), e a avaliação da independência funcional em crianças e jovens com espinha bífida, com a Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Para fazer a análise destas escalas foram realizadas 4 aplicações práticas que se enquadrassem nos cenários do estudo de simulação. A idade, o peso, e o nível de lesão medular foram as variáveis independentes escolhidas para selecionar os grupos, sendo os recém-nascidos agrupados por “classes de idade gestacional” e por “classes de peso” as crianças e jovens com espinha bífida por “classes etárias” e “níveis de lesão medular”. Verificou-se um bom enquadramento dos resultados com dados reais no estudo de simulação.

Simulazione Monte Carlo del muon veto dell'esperimento XENON1T

Numerose osservazioni astrofisiche e cosmologiche compiute a partire dagli anni '30 confermano che circa il 26% dell'Universo è costituito da materia oscura. Tale materia ha la particolarità di interagire solo gravitazionalmente e, forse, debolmente: essa si presenta massiva e neutra. Tra le numerose ipotesi avanzate riguardanti la natura della materia oscura una delle più accreditate è quella delle WIMP (Weakly Interacting Massive Particle). Il progetto all'avanguardia nella ricerca diretta delle WIMP è XENON presso i Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS). Tale esperimento è basato sulla diffusione elastica delle particelle ricercate su nuclei di Xeno: il rivelatore utilizzato è una TPC a doppia fase (liquido-gas). La rivelazione diretta di materia oscura prevede l'impiego di un rivelatore molto grande, a causa della piccola probabilità di interazione, e di ambienti a bassa radioattività naturale, per ridurre al minimo il rumore di fondo. Risulta necessario inoltre l'utilizzo di uno schermo attivo che individui particelle di alta energia, in particolare muoni cosmici, che possono produrre falsi segnali. È stato realizzato a tale scopo un sistema di Muon Veto composto da un grande cilindro d'acqua posto attorno alla TPC, equipaggiato con 84 fotorivelatori atti ad osservare i fotoni ottici emessi per effetto Čherenkov dai raggi cosmici. Il presente lavoro di tesi si colloca nell'ambito di un programma di simulazione Monte Carlo, creato per realizzare virtualmente l'esperimento XENON1T e per effettuare studi preliminari. Lo scopo di tale lavoro è stato quello di contribuire alla scrittura e alla verifica del codice di simulazione e allo studio di eventi di muoni cosmici da esso generati. L'analisi dati è stata effettuata scrivendo un programma in C++ in grado di analizzare i risultati forniti dal simulatore e di generare degli Event Display statici e dinamici per una visualizzazione efficace degli eventi.