Metodología de evaluación de la seguridad vial en intersecciones basada en el análisis cuantitativo de conflictos entre vehículos

El modo tradicional de estimar el nivel de seguridad vial es el registro de accidentes de tráfico, sin embargo son altamente variables, aleatorios y necesitan un periodo de registro de al menos 3 años. Existen metodologías preventivas en las cuales no es necesario que ocurra un accidente para determinar el nivel de seguridad de una intersección, como lo es la técnica de los conflictos de tráfico, que introduce las mediciones alternativas de seguridad como cuantificadoras del riesgo de accidente. El objetivo general de la tesis es establecer una metodología que permita clasificar el riesgo en intersecciones interurbanas, en función del análisis de conflictos entre vehículos, realizado mediante las variables alternativas o indirectas de seguridad vial. La metodología para el análisis y evaluación temprana de la seguridad en una intersección, estará basada en dos medidas alternativas de seguridad: el tiempo hasta la colisión y el tiempo posterior a la invasión de la trayectoria. El desarrollo experimental se realizó mediante estudios de campo, para la parte exploratoria de la investigación, se seleccionaron 3 intersecciones interurbanas en forma de T donde se obtuvieron las variables que caracterizan los conflictos entre vehículos; luego mediante técnicas de análisis multivariante, se obtuvo los modelos de clasificación del riesgo cualitativo y cuantitativo. Para la homologación y el estudio final de concordancia entre el índice propuesto y el modelo de clasificación, se desarrollaron nuevos estudios de campo en 6 intersecciones interurbanas en forma de T. El índice de riesgo obtenido resulta una herramienta muy útil para realizar evaluaciones rápidas conducentes a estimar la peligrosidad de una intersección en T, debido a lo simple y económico que resulta obtener los registros de datos en campo, por medio de una rápida capacitación a operarios; la elaboración del informe de resultados debe ser por un especialista. Los índices de riesgo obtenidos muestran que las variables originales más influyentes son las mediciones de tiempo. Se pudo determinar que los valores más altos del índice de riesgo están relacionados a un mayor riesgo de que un conflicto termine en accidente. Dentro de este índice, la única variable cuyo aporte es proporcionalmente directo es la velocidad de aproximación, lo que concuerda con lo que sucede en un conflicto, pues una velocidad excesiva se manifiesta como un claro factor de riesgo ya que potencia todos los fallos humanos en la conducción. Una de las principales aportaciones de esta tesis doctoral a la ingeniería de carreteras, es la posibilidad de aplicación de la metodología por parte de administraciones de carreteras locales, las cuales muchas veces cuentan con recursos de inversión limitados para efectuar estudios preventivos, sobretodo en países en vías de desarrollo. La evaluación del riesgo de una intersección luego de una mejora en cuanto a infraestructura y/o dispositivos de control de tráfico, al igual que un análisis antes – después, pero sin realizar una comparación mediante la ocurrencia de accidentes, sino que por medio de la técnica de conflictos de tráfico, se puede convertir en una aplicación directa y económica. Además, se pudo comprobar que el análisis de componentes principales utilizado en la creación del índice de riesgo de la intersección, es una herramienta útil para resumir todo el conjunto de mediciones que son posibles de obtener con la técnica de conflictos de tráfico y que permiten el diagnóstico del riesgo de accidentalidad en una intersección. En cuanto a la metodología para la homologación de los modelos, se pudo establecer la validez y confiabilidad al conjunto de respuestas entregadas por los observadores en el registro de datos en campo, ya que los resultados de la validación establecen que la medición de concordancia de las respuestas entregadas por los modelos y lo observado, son significativas y sugieren una alta coincidencia entre ellos. ABSTRACT The traditional way of estimating road safety level is the record of occurrence of traffic accidents; however, they are highly variable, random, and require a recording period of at least three years. There are preventive methods which do not need an accident to determine the road safety level of an intersection, such as traffic conflict technique, which introduces surrogate safety measures as parameters for the evaluation of accident risks. The general objective of the thesis is to establish a methodology that will allow the classification of risk at interurban intersections as a function of the analysis of conflicts between vehicles performed by means of surrogate road safety variables. The proposal of a methodology for the analysis and early evaluation of safety at an intersection will be based on two surrogate safety measures: the time to collision and the post encroachment time. On the other hand, the experimental development has taken place by means of field studies in which the exploratory part of the investigation selected three interurban T-intersections where the application of the traffic conflict technique gave variables that characterize the conflicts between vehicles; then, using multivariate analysis techniques, the models for the classification of qualitative and quantitative risk were obtained. With the models new field studies were carried out at six interurban Tintersections with the purpose of developing the homologation and the final study of the agreement between the proposed index and the classification model. The risk index obtained is a very useful tool for making rapid evaluations to estimate the hazard of a T-intersection, as well as for getting simply and economically the field data records after a fast training of the workers and then preparing the report of results by a specialist. The risk indices obtained show that the most influential original variables are the measurements of time. It was determined that the highest risk index values are related with greater risk of a conflict resulting in an accident. Within this index, the only variable whose contribution is proportionally direct is the approach speed, in agreement with what happens in a conflict, because excessive speed appears as a clear risk factor at an intersection because it intensifies all the human driving faults. One of the main contributions of this doctoral thesis to road engineering is the possibility of applying the methodology by local road administrations, which very often have limited investment resources to carry out these kinds of preventive studies, particularly in developing countries. The evaluation of the risk at an intersection after an improvement in terms of infrastructure and/or traffic control devices, the same as a before/after analysis, without comparison of accident occurrence but by means of the traffic conflict technique, can become a direct and economical application. It is also shown that main components analysis used for producing the risk index of the intersection is a useful tool for summarizing the whole set of measurements that can be obtained with the traffic conflict technique and allow diagnosing accident risk at an intersection. As to the methodology for the homologation of the models, the validity and reliability of the set of responses delivered by the observers recording the field data could be established, because the results of the validation show that agreement between the observations and the responses delivered by the models is significant and highly coincident.

Vision-based active safety system for automatic stopping

ntelligent systems designed to reduce highway fatalities have been widely applied in the automotive sector in the last decade. Of all users of transport systems, pedestrians are the most vulnerable in crashes as they are unprotected. This paper deals with an autonomous intelligent emergency system designed to avoid collisions with pedestrians. The system consists of a fuzzy controller based on the time-to-collision estimate – obtained via a vision-based system – and the wheel-locking probability – obtained via the vehicle’s CAN bus – that generates a safe braking action. The system has been tested in a real car – a convertible Citroën C3 Pluriel – equipped with an automated electro-hydraulic braking system capable of working in parallel with the vehicle’s original braking circuit. The system is used as a last resort in the case that an unexpected pedestrian is in the lane and all the warnings have failed to produce a response from the driver.

Initiation of evasive manoeuvres during self-motion: a test of three hypotheses

To understand performance of evasive and interceptive actions it is important to know how people decide when to initiate a movement - initiating at the 'right' moment is often essential for successful performance. It has been proposed that initiation is triggered when a perceptually derived quantity reaches an invariant criterion value. Candidate quantities include time-to-collision (TTC), distance, and rate of image expansion ( ROE), all of which have received empirical support. We studied initiation of an evasive manoeuvre in a computer-simulated steering task in which the observer was required to steer through a stationary visual environment and avoid colliding with an obstacle in their path. The results could not be explained by hypotheses which propose that evasive manoeuvre initiation is based on a fixed criterion value of TTC or distance. The overall pattern was, however, consistent with the use of a criterion ROE value. This was further tested by analyses designed to directly evaluate whether the ROE value used to initiate the response was the same across experimental conditions. Only two of the six participants showed evidence for using the ROE strategy.

1° level of automation: the effectiveness of adaptive cruise control on driving and visual behaviour

The research activities have allowed the analysis of the driver assistance systems, called Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in relation to road safety. The study is structured according to several evaluation steps, related to definite on-site tests that have been carried out with different samples of users, according to their driving experience with the ACC. The evaluation steps concern: •The testing mode and the choice of suitable instrumentation to detect the driver’s behaviour in relation to the ACC. •The analysis modes and outputs to be obtained, i.e.: - Distribution of attention and inattention; - Mental workload; - The Perception-Reaction Time (PRT), the Time To Collision (TTC) and the Time Headway (TH). The main purpose is to assess the interaction between vehicle drivers and ADAS, highlighting the inattention and variation of the workloads they induce regarding the driving task. The research project considered the use of a system for monitoring visual behavior (ASL Mobile Eye-XG - ME), a powerful GPS that allowed to record the kinematic data of the vehicle (Racelogic Video V-BOX) and a tool for reading brain activity (Electroencephalographic System - EEG). Just during the analytical phase, a second and important research objective was born: the creation of a graphical interface that would allow exceeding the frame count limit, making faster and more effective the labeling of the driver’s points of view. The results show a complete and exhaustive picture of the vehicle-driver interaction. It has been possible to highlight the main sources of criticalities related to the user and the vehicle, in order to concretely reduce the accident rate. In addition, the use of mathematical-computational methodologies for the analysis of experimental data has allowed the optimization and verification of analytical processes with neural networks that have made an effective comparison between the manual and automatic methodology.

Use of bird carcass removals by urban scavengers to adjust bird-window collision estimates

Carcass removal by scavengers has been identified as one of the largest biases in estimating bird mortality from anthropogenic sources. Only two studies have examined carcass removal by scavengers in an urban environment, and previous estimates of bird-window collision mortality at houses have relied on carcass removal rates from wind turbine studies. We placed a bird carcass and time-lapse camera at 44 houses in Edmonton, Alberta. In total, 166 7-day trials were conducted throughout 2015. Time-to-event (survival) analysis was used to identify covariates that affected removal. The carcass removal rate was determined for use in estimating the number of birds killed from bird-window collisions at houses in Alberta. In total, 67.5% of carcasses were removed. The date the carcass was placed, the year the house was built, and the level of development within 50 m of the house were the covariates that had the largest effect on carcass removal. In calculating our removal rate, the number of detected carcasses in the first 24 hours was adjusted by 1.47 to account for removal by scavengers. Previously collected citizen science data were used to create an estimate of 957,440 bird deaths each year in Alberta as a result of bird-window collisions with houses. This number is based on the most detailed bird-window collision study at houses to date and a carcass removal study conducted in the same area. Similar localized studies across Canada will need to be completed to reduce the biases that exist with the previous bird-window collision mortality estimate for houses in Canada.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Collision-free prioritized medium access control in wireless networks with hidden nodes

We propose a collision-free medium access control (MAC) protocol, which implements static-priority scheduling and works in the presence of hidden nodes. The MAC protocol allows multiple masters and is fully distributed; it is an adaptation to a wireless channel of the dominance protocol used in the CAN bus. But unlike that protocol, our protocol does not require a node having the ability to sense the channel while transmitting to the channel. Our protocol is collision-free even in the presence of hidden nodes and it achieves this without synchronized clocks or out-of-band busy tones. In addition, the protocol is designed to ensure that many non-interfering nodes can transmit in parallel and it functions for both broadcast and unicast transmissions.

Fast test for assessing the susceptibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to isoniazid and rifampin by real-time PCR

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), a leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide. Rapid diagnosis of resistant strains is important for the control of TB. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays may detect all of the mutations that occur in the M. tuberculosis 81-bp core region of the rpoB gene, which is responsible for resistance to rifampin (RIF) and codon 315 of the katG gene and the inhA ribosomal binding site, which are responsible for isoniazid (INH). The goal of this study was to assess the performance of RT-PCR compared to traditional culture-based methods for determining the drug susceptibility of M. tuberculosis. BACTEC TM MGIT TM 960 was used as the gold standard method for phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Susceptibilities to INH and RIF were also determined by genotyping of katG, inhA and rpoB genes. RT-PCR based on molecular beacons probes was used to detect specific point mutations associated with resistance. The sensitivities of RT-PCR in detecting INH resistance using katG and inhA targets individually were 55% and 25%, respectively and 73% when combined. The sensitivity of the RT-PCR assay in detecting RIF resistance was 99%. The median time to complete the RT-PCR assay was three-four hours. The specificities for tests were both 100%. Our results confirm that RT-PCR can detect INH and RIF resistance in less than four hours with high sensitivity.

Time course of the hemodynamic responses to aortic depressor nerve stimulation in conscious spontaneously hypertensive rats

The time to reach the maximum response of arterial pressure, heart rate and vascular resistance (hindquarter and mesenteric) was measured in conscious male spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) and normotensive control rats (NCR; Wistar; 18-22 weeks) subjected to electrical stimulation of the aortic depressor nerve (ADN) under thiopental anesthesia. The parameters of stimulation were 1 mA intensity and 2 ms pulse length applied for 5 s, using frequencies of 10, 30, and 90 Hz. The time to reach the hemodynamic responses at different frequencies of ADN stimulation was similar for SHR (N = 15) and NCR (N = 14); hypotension = NCR (4194 ± 336 to 3695 ± 463 ms) vs SHR (3475 ± 354 to 4494 ± 300 ms); bradycardia = NCR (1618 ± 152 to 1358 ± 185 ms) vs SHR (1911 ± 323 to 1852 ± 431 ms), and the fall in hindquarter vascular resistance = NCR (6054 ± 486 to 6550 ± 847 ms) vs SHR (4849 ± 918 to 4926 ± 646 ms); mesenteric = NCR (5574 ± 790 to 5752 ± 539 ms) vs SHR (5638 ± 648 to 6777 ± 624 ms). In addition, ADN stimulation produced baroreflex responses characterized by a faster cardiac effect followed by a vascular effect, which together contributed to the decrease in arterial pressure. Therefore, the results indicate that there is no alteration in the conduction of the electrical impulse after the site of baroreceptor mechanical transduction in the baroreflex pathway (central and/or efferent) in conscious SHR compared to NCR.

Hip fracture in the elderly: does counting time from fracture to surgery or from hospital admission to surgery matter when studying in-hospital mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Force-versus-time curves during collisions between two identical steel balls

We describe a numerical procedure for plotting the force-versus-time curves in elastic collisions between identical conducting balls. A system of parametric equations relating the force and the time to a dimensionless parameter is derived from the assumption of a force compatible with Hertz's theory of collision. A simple experimental arrangement consisting of a mechanical system of colliding balls and an electrical circuit containing a crystal oscillator and an electronic counter is used to measure the collision time as a function of the energy of impact. From the data we can determine the relevant parameters. The calculated results agree very well with the expected values and are consistent with the assumption that the collisions are elastic. (C) 2006 American Association of Physics Teachers.

LH and FSH concentration and follicular development in Nellore heifers submitted to fixed-time artificial insemination protocols with different progesterone concentrations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time needed to schedule dermatological consultations in Brazil

BACKGROUND: It is not clear what the population's demand for dermatologists is, nor how many professionals are needed in order to provide adequate care in this area of expertise. Knowledge of the flow of patients at dermatological clinics throughout the country allows for the formation of expansion and distribution policies regarding professionals, and provides backing for the decision to increase medical residency places. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the time it takes to schedule a private dermatological consultation in Brazil, and other factors concerning consultations. METHODS: Survey with a random sample of 14% of Brazilian dermatologists, simulating the scheduling of emergency clinical and cosmetic consultations, and botulinum toxin procedures. Also, details relating to cost and professionals, were studied. Data were adjusted for each region of the country. RESULTS: A total of 873 dermatologists were evaluated. Full SBD members represented 85%, and 66% were women. The median time to schedule a consultation ranged from 6 (out-of-pocket payment) to 7 (medical insurance) consecutive working days. Times varied depending on the region. A multivariate analysis showed that out-of-pocket consultations and procedures were scheduled sooner than with medical insurance, regardless of whether they were clinical or cosmetic. CONCLUSION: The characteristics of dermatologists are varied throughout regions of the country. Private consultations and procedures are scheduled sooner than with insurance companies.

Time course of the hemodynamic responses to aortic depressor nerve stimulation in conscious spontaneously hypertensive rats

The time to reach the maximum response of arterial pressure, heart rate and vascular resistance (hindquarter and mesenteric) was measured in conscious male spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) and normotensive control rats (NCR; Wistar; 18-22 weeks) subjected to electrical stimulation of the aortic depressor nerve (ADN) under thiopental anesthesia. The parameters of stimulation were 1 mA intensity and 2 ms pulse length applied for 5 s, using frequencies of 10, 30, and 90 Hz. The time to reach the hemodynamic responses at different frequencies of ADN stimulation was similar for SHR (N = 15) and NCR (N = 14); hypotension = NCR (4194 +/- 336 to 3695 +/- 463 ms) vs SHR ( 3475 +/- 354 to 4494 +/- 300 ms); bradycardia = NCR (1618 +/- 152 to 1358 +/- 185 ms) vs SHR (1911 +/- 323 to 1852 +/- 431 ms), and the fall in hindquarter vascular resistance = NCR (6054 +/- 486 to 6550 +/- 847 ms) vs SHR (4849 +/- 918 to 4926 +/- 646 ms); mesenteric = NCR (5574 +/- 790 to 5752 +/- 539 ms) vs SHR (5638 +/- 648 to 6777 +/- 624 ms). In addition, ADN stimulation produced baroreflex responses characterized by a faster cardiac effect followed by a vascular effect, which together contributed to the decrease in arterial pressure. Therefore, the results indicate that there is no alteration in the conduction of the electrical impulse after the site of baroreceptor mechanical transduction in the baroreflex pathway (central and/or efferent) in conscious SHR compared to NCR.

Optimal time for initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected, treatment-naive children aged 2 to 5 years old

BACKGROUND The use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) comprising three antiretroviral medications from at least two classes of drugs is the current standard treatment for HIV infection in adults and children. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for antiretroviral therapy recommend early treatment regardless of immunologic thresholds or the clinical condition for all infants (less than one years of age) and children under the age of two years. For children aged two to five years current WHO guidelines recommend (based on low quality evidence) that clinical and immunological thresholds be used to identify those who need to start cART (advanced clinical stage or CD4 counts ≤ 750 cells/mm(3) or per cent CD4 ≤ 25%). This Cochrane review will inform the current available evidence regarding the optimal time for treatment initiation in children aged two to five years with the goal of informing the revision of WHO 2013 recommendations on when to initiate cART in children. OBJECTIVES To assess the evidence for the optimal time to initiate cART in treatment-naive, HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, the AEGIS conference database, specific relevant conferences, www.clinicaltrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry platform and reference lists of articles. The date of the most recent search was 30 September 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared immediate with deferred initiation of cART, and prospective cohort studies which followed children from enrolment to start of cART and on cART. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors considered studies for inclusion in the review, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted data on the primary outcome of death from all causes and several secondary outcomes, including incidence of CDC category C and B clinical events and per cent CD4 cells (CD4%) at study end. For RCTs we calculated relative risks (RR) or mean differences with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For cohort data, we extracted relative risks with 95% CI from adjusted analyses. We combined results from RCTs using a random effects model and examined statistical heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS Two RCTs in HIV-positive children aged 1 to 12 years were identified. One trial was the pilot study for the larger second trial and both compared initiation of cART regardless of clinical-immunological conditions with deferred initiation until per cent CD4 dropped to <15%. The two trials were conducted in Thailand, and Thailand and Cambodia, respectively. Unpublished analyses of the 122 children enrolled at ages 2 to 5 years were included in this review. There was one death in the immediate cART group and no deaths in the deferred group (RR 2.9; 95% CI 0.12 to 68.9). In the subgroup analysis of children aged 24 to 59 months, there was one CDC C event in each group (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.06 to 14.87) and 8 and 11 CDC B events in the immediate and deferred groups respectively (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.24 to 3.73). In this subgroup, the mean difference in CD4 per cent at study end was 5.9% (95% CI 2.7 to 9.1). One cohort study from South Africa, which compared the effect of delaying cART for up to 60 days in 573 HIV-positive children starting tuberculosis treatment (median age 3.5 years), was also included. The adjusted hazard ratios for the effect on mortality of delaying ART for more than 60 days was 1.32 (95% CI 0.55 to 3.16). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This systematic review shows that there is insufficient evidence from clinical trials in support of either early or CD4-guided initiation of ART in HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. Programmatic issues such as the retention in care of children in ART programmes in resource-limited settings will need to be considered when formulating WHO 2013 recommendations.