Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Biocontrol by phenazine-1-carboxamide-producing Pseudomonas chlororaphis PCL1391of tomato root rot caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici

Seventy bacterial isolates from the rhizosphere of tomato were screened for antagonistic activity against the tomato foot and root rot-causing fungal pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici. One isolate, strain PCL1391, appeared to be an efficient colonizer of tomato roots and an excellent biocontrol strain in an F. oxysporum/tomato test system. Strain PCL1391 was identified as Pseudomonas chlororaphis and further characterization showed that it produces a broad spectrum of antifungal factors (AFFs), including a hydrophobic compound, hydrogen cyanide, chitinase(s), and protease(s). Through mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance, the hydrophobic compound was identified as phenazine-1-carboxamide (PCN). We have studied the production and action of this AFF both in vitro and in vivo. Using a PCL1391 transposon mutant, with a lux reporter gene inserted in the phenazine biosynthetic operon (phz), we showed that this phenazine biosynthetic mutant was substantially decreased in both in vitro antifungal activity and biocontrol activity. Moreover, with the same mutant it was shown that the phz biosynthetic operon is expressed in the tomato rhizosphere. Comparison of the biocontrol activity of the PCN-producing strain PCL1391 with those of phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (PCA)-producing strains P. fluorescens 2-79 and P. aureofaciens 30-84 showed that the PCN-producing strain is able to suppress disease in the tomato/F. oxysporum system, whereas the PCA-producing strains are not. Comparison of in vitro antifungal activity of PCN and PCA showed that the antifungal activity of PCN was at least 10 times higher at neutral pH, suggesting that this may contribute to the superior biocontrol performance of strain PCL1391 in the tomato/F. oxysporum system.

Scene Classification Using a Hybrid Generative/Discriminative Approach

We investigate whether dimensionality reduction using a latent generative model is beneficial for the task of weakly supervised scene classification. In detail, we are given a set of labeled images of scenes (for example, coast, forest, city, river, etc.), and our objective is to classify a new image into one of these categories. Our approach consists of first discovering latent ";topics"; using probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA), a generative model from the statistical text literature here applied to a bag of visual words representation for each image, and subsequently, training a multiway classifier on the topic distribution vector for each image. We compare this approach to that of representing each image by a bag of visual words vector directly and training a multiway classifier on these vectors. To this end, we introduce a novel vocabulary using dense color SIFT descriptors and then investigate the classification performance under changes in the size of the visual vocabulary, the number of latent topics learned, and the type of discriminative classifier used (k-nearest neighbor or SVM). We achieve superior classification performance to recent publications that have used a bag of visual word representation, in all cases, using the authors' own data sets and testing protocols. We also investigate the gain in adding spatial information. We show applications to image retrieval with relevance feedback and to scene classification in videos

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Enforcement problems and secondary markets

There is a large and growing literature that studies the effects of weak enforcement institutions on economic performance. This literature has focused almost exclusively on primary markets, in which assets are issued and traded to improve the allocation of investment and consumption. The general conclusion is that weak enforcement institutions impair the workings of these markets, giving rise to various inefficiencies.But weak enforcement institutions also create incentives to develop secondary markets, in which the assets issued in primary markets are retraded. This paper shows that trading in secondary markets counteracts the effects of weak enforcement institutions and, in the absence of further frictions, restores efficiency.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

Capital goods imports and investments in Latin America in the mid 1920s

The assessment of Latin American long term economic performance is in urgent need ofmobilizing more data to match the pressing demands of growth analysts. We present asystematic comparison of capital goods imports for 20 Latin American countries in 1925. It relies on both the foreign trade data of the importing countries and of the major exporting countries the industrialized economies of the time. The quality of foreign trade figures is tested; an homogeneous estimate of capital goods imported is derived, and its per capita ranking is discussed providing new light on Latin American development levels before import substitution.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

Tietohallintoympäristön ylläpitopalveluiden laadun parantaminen ja suorituskyvyn mittaaminen

Suorituskyvyn mittaaminen korostuu yhä nopeammin muuttuvassa ja monimutkaisemmassa toimintaympäristössä. Taloudellisia mittareita laajempi suorituskyvyn mittaaminen mahdollistaa muutosten huomaamisen ja niihin reagoinnin aikaisemmin kuin pelkkä taloudellisten lukujen seuraaminen. Asiakkaiden vaatimuksien ja kilpailun kasvaessa tulee IT- yritysten pyrkiä yhä laadukkaampaan toimintaan pysyäkseen kilpailussa mukana. Tutkimuksen aiheena on rakentaa tasapainotettu mittaristo tietohallintoympäristön ylläpitopalveluille sekä esittää menetelmiä laadun parantamiseen. Palveluiden laadun parantamisen osalta käsitellään palvelun laadun ominaisuuksia, laadunhallintaa ja laadunhallintajärjestelmien käyttökokemuksia, kehitysmenetelmiä sekä laadun parantamisen vaikutuksia. Huomio kiinnittyi ennakoivaan laatutyöskentelyyn ja palvelun laadun ominaisuuksien monipuoliseen käsittelyyn. Palveluiden ollessa kyseessä painotus on toiminnanja suunnittelun laadussa. Suorituskyvyn mittaamisessa käsitellään suorituskyvynominaisuuksia, suorituskyvyn mittaamisen käyttöä, tasapainotettua mittaristoa ja mittariston rakentamista. Soveltavassa osiossa rakennetaan tasapainotettu mittaristo sekä esitetään menetelmiä palveluiden laadun parannukseen. Mittareiden valinnassa ja laadun kehittämisessä on käytetty hyväksi IT- yritysten viitekehyksiä ITILiä ja COBITia.

Strategic groupsin the European energy industry

Strategisten ryhmien teoria tarjoaa mahdollisuuden keskitason analyysiin yritysten ja toimialan välillä yritysten kilpailullisen aseman tarkasteluun. Strategiset ryhmät ovat samalla toimialalla toimivia yrityksiä, joilla on samanlaiset strategiset ominaisuudet, jotka kilpailevat samanlaisilla perusteilla tai jotka toteuttavat samanlaista strategiaa. Tässä tutkimuksessa strategisten ryhmien teoriaa on käytetty eurooppalaisten energiayritysten ryhmittelyyn. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana 104 energia-alan yritystä, jotka jaettiin viiteen strategiseen pääryhmään yritysten maantieteellisen toiminta-alueen ja koon mukaan. Jokainen ryhmä edustaa erilaista strategiaa. Muita strategisia ominaisuuksia, joita ovat diversifikaatioaste, tuotantoteknologia ja omistusmuoto, käytettiin muodostamaan alaryhmiä edellisistä pääryhmistä. Muodostettuja strategisia ryhmiä käytettiin seuraavaksi suoristuskykyerojen tutkimiseen ryhmien välillä. Suorituskykyä kuvaaviksi muuttujiksi valittiin liikevoitto-%, koko pääoman tuottoaste, vakavaraisuus-% ja current ratio. Tulokset osoittavat, että energiayritykset voidaan jakaa ryhmiin valittujen strategisten ominaisuuksien perusteella. Nämä yritysten strategiset valinnat eivät vaikuta merkittävästi yritysten taloudelliseen suorituskykyyn valittujen suorituskykymuuttujien osalta. Monikansalliset jättiläisyritykset ovat suorituskyvyltään heikoimpia ja eurooppalaiset suuryritykset parhaita ryhmiä, mutta erot eivät ole tilastollisesti merkittäviä. Ainut merkittävä ero suorituskykymuuttujissa oli vakavaraisuudessa monikansallisten ja eurooppalaisten suurten yritysten välillä. Muut suorituskykymuuttujat eivät eronneet ryhmien välillä tilastollisesti merkittävästi. Tilastollisesti merkittäviä eroja ei löydetty myöskään alaryhmien välillä.

When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity

One stream of leadership theory suggests leaders are evaluated via inferential observer processes that compare the fit of the target to a prototype of an ideal (charismatic) leader. Attributional theories of leadership suggest that evaluations depend on knowledge of past organizational performance, which is attributed to the leader's skills. We develop a novel theory showing how inferential and attributional processes simultaneously explain top-level leader evaluation and ultimately leader retention and selection. We argue that observers will mostly rely on attributional mechanisms when performance signals clearly indicate good or poor performance outcomes. However, under conditions of attributional ambiguity (i.e., when performance signals are unclear), observers will mostly rely on inferential processes. In Study 1 we tested our theory in an unconventional context-the U.S. presidential election-and found that the two processes, due to the leader's charisma and country economic performance, interact in predicting whether a leader is selected. Using a business context and an experimental design, in Study 2 we show that CEO charisma and firm performance interact in predicting leader retention, confirming the results we found in Study 1. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is quite general and can apply to various performance domains.

Organisaation kehittämisen merkitys yrityksen tulokselle. Tapaustutkimus Elimäen Osuuspankista

Tutkimuksen tarkastelukohteena oli organisaation kehittämisen merkitys yrityksen tulokselle. Tutkielma jakaantui teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Teoriaosassa muodostettiin viitekehys organisaation kehittämisen menetelmien ymmärtämiseksi ja siihen vaikuttavien osatekijöiden jaottelemiseksi. Työn empiirisessä osassa tätä viitekehystä hyödynnettiin kysely- ja haastattelututkimuksen sekä asiakas- ja henkilökyselyn pohjana. Organisaation kehittäminen on organisaation ja yksilön oppimista, kykyä oppia ja soveltaa oppimaansa käytäntöön siten, että se saa aikaan taloudellista tulosta. Yrityksen tulos voidaan jakaa taloudelliseen ja laadulliseen tulokseen. Taloudellinen tulos mitataan numeerisesti tilinpäätöksessä. Laadullinen tulos liittyy asiakkuuteen, oppimiskykyyn, sosiaalisen ja inhimillisen arvon mittaamiseen tai tietopääoman kehitykseen, jota voidaan mitata esimerkiksi asiakas- ja henkilöstötutkimuksin. Jotta organisaation kehittämisellä olisi merkitystä yrityksen tulokselle, tulee kehittämistyön olla pitkäjänteistä, systemaattista ja suunnitemallista pohjautuen yrityksen visioon.