Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Quantification of the accuracy of MRI generated 3D models of long bones compared to CT generated 3D models

Orthopaedic fracture fixation implants are increasingly being designed using accurate 3D models of long bones based on computer tomography (CT). Unlike CT, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not involve ionising radiation and is therefore a desirable alternative to CT. This study aims to quantify the accuracy of MRI-based 3D models compared to CT-based 3D models of long bones. The femora of five intact cadaver ovine limbs were scanned using a 1.5T MRI and a CT scanner. Image segmentation of CT and MRI data was performed using a multi-threshold segmentation method. Reference models were generated by digitising the bone surfaces free of soft tissue with a mechanical contact scanner. The MRI- and CT-derived models were validated against the reference models. The results demonstrated that the CT-based models contained an average error of 0.15mm while the MRI-based models contained an average error of 0.23mm. Statistical validation shows that there are no significant differences between 3D models based on CT and MRI data. These results indicate that the geometric accuracy of MRI based 3D models was comparable to that of CT-based models and therefore MRI is a potential alternative to CT for generation of 3D models with high geometric accuracy.

Contribution of take-out food consumption to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake : a mediation analysis

Lower fruit and vegetable intake among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups has been well documented, and may be a consequence of a higher consumption of take-out foods. This study examined whether, and to what extent, take-out food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and fruit and vegetable intake. A cross-sectional postal survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged 25–64 years in Brisbane, Australia in 2009 (response rate = 63.7%, N = 903). A food frequency questionnaire assessed usual daily servings of fruits and vegetables (0 to 6), overall take-out consumption (times/week) and the consumption of 22 specific take-out items (never to ≥once/day). These specific take-out items were grouped into “less healthy” and “healthy” choices and indices were created for each type of choice (0 to 100). Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education. The analyses were performed using linear regression, and a bootstrap re-sampling approach estimated the statistical significance of the mediated effects. Mean daily serves of fruits and vegetables was 1.89 (SD 1.05) and 2.47 (SD 1.12) respectively. The least educated group were more likely to consume fewer serves of fruit (B= –0.39, p<0.001) and vegetables (B= –0.43, p<0.001) compared with the highest educated. The consumption of “less healthy” take-out food partly explained (mediated) education differences in fruit and vegetable intake; however, no mediating effects were observed for overall and “healthy” take-out consumption. Regular consumption of “less healthy” take-out items may contribute to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake, possibly by displacing these foods.

Supermarket consumers and gender differences relating to their perceived importance levels of store characteristics

Family grocery shopping is the accepted domain of women; however, modern social and demographic movements challenge traditional gender roles with in the family structure. Men now engage in grocery shopping more freely and frequently, yet the essence of male shopping behaviour and beliefs present an opportunity for examination. This research identifies specific store characteristics, investigates the perceived importance of those characteristics and explores gender, age and income differences that may exist. A random sample collection methodology involving 280 male and female grocery shoppers was selected. Results indicated significant statistical differences between genders based on perceptions of importance of most store characteristics. Overall, male grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics less important than female shoppers. Income did not affect shoppers’ level of associated importance; however respondents’ age, education and occupation influenced perceptions of price, promotions and cleanliness.

Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information.

Modelling and performance evaluation of the IEEE 802.11 DCF for real-time control

Popular wireless networks, such as IEEE 802.11/15/16, are not designed for real-time applications. Thus, supporting real-time quality of service (QoS) in wireless real-time control is challenging. This paper adopts the widely used IEEE 802.11, with the focus on its distributed coordination function (DCF), for soft-real-time control systems. The concept of the critical real-time traffic condition is introduced to characterize the marginal satisfaction of real-time requirements. Then, mathematical models are developed to describe the dynamics of DCF based real-time control networks with periodic traffic, a unique feature of control systems. Performance indices such as throughput and packet delay are evaluated using the developed models, particularly under the critical real-time traffic condition. Finally, the proposed modelling is applied to traffic rate control for cross-layer networked control system design.

Improving patient privacy and confidentiality in one regional Emergency Department – a quality project

Background: Patient privacy and confidentiality (PPaC) is an important consideration for nurses and other members of the health care team. Can a patient expect to have confidentiality and in particular privacy in the current climate of emergency health care? Do staff who work in the Emergency Department (ED) see confidentiality as an important factor when providing emergency care? These questions are important to consider. Methods: This is a two phased quality improvement project, developed and implemented over a six month period in a busy regional, tertiary referral ED. Results: Issues identified for this department included department design and layout, overcrowding due to patient flow and access block, staff practices and department policies which were also impacted upon by culture of the team, and use of space. Conclusions: Changes successful in improving this issue include increased staff awareness about PPaC, intercom paging prior to nursing handover to remove visitors during handover, one visitor per patient policy, designated places for handover, allocated bed space for patient reviews/assessment and a strategy to temporarily move the patient if procedures would have been undertaken in shared bed space. These are important issues when considering policy, practice and department design in the ED.

Managing product quality and reliability under new challenges

This paper presents the findings of an investigation of the challenges Australian manufacturers are currently facing. A comprehensive questionnaire survey was conducted among leading Australian manufacturers. This paper reports the main findings of this study. Evidence indicates that product quality and reliability (Q & R) are the main challenges for Australian manufacturers. Design capability and time to market came second. Results show that there is no effective information exchange between the parties involved in production and quality control. Learning from the past mistakes is not proving to have significant effects on improving product quality. The technological innovation speed is high and companies are introducing as many as 5 new products in a year. This technological speed has pressure on the Q & R of new products. To overcome the new challenges, companies need a Q & R improvement model.

Train control to reduce delays upon service disturbances at railway junctions

Train delay is one of the most important indexes to evaluate the service quality of the railway. Because of the interactions of movement among trains, a delayed train may conflict with trains scheduled on other lines at junction area. Train that loses conflict may be forced to stop or slow down because of restrictive signals, which consequently leads to the loss of run-time and probably enlarges more delays. This paper proposes a time-saving train control method to recover delays as soon as possible. In the proposed method, golden section search is adopted to identify the optimal train speed at the expected time of restrictive signal aspect upgrades, which enables the train to depart from the conflicting area as soon as possible. A heuristic method is then developed to attain the advisory train speed profile assisting drivers in train control. Simulation study indicates that the proposed method enables the train to recover delays as soon as possible in case of disturbances at railway junctions, in comparison with the traditional maximum traction strategy and the green wave strategy.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

Predictive compensation for variable network delays and packet losses in networked control systems

Networked control systems (NCSs) offer many advantages over conventional control; however, they also demonstrate challenging problems such as network-induced delay and packet losses. This paper proposes an approach of predictive compensation for simultaneous network-induced delays and packet losses. Different from the majority of existing NCS control methods, the proposed approach addresses co-design of both network and controller. It also alleviates the requirements of precise process models and full understanding of NCS network dynamics. For a series of possible sensor-to-actuator delays, the controller computes a series of corresponding redundant control values. Then, it sends out those control values in a single packet to the actuator. Once receiving the control packet, the actuator measures the actual sensor-to-actuator delay and computes the control signals from the control packet. When packet dropout occurs, the actuator utilizes past control packets to generate an appropriate control signal. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through examples.