Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods: We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results: Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion: The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Probabilidade de financiamento por cartões de crédito híbridos

Esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de identificar as variáveis e sua influência na propensão à aquisição de crédito pessoal, propondo um modelo estatístico de propensão ao financiamento por cartões de crédito híbridos para maximização de contratação de crédito e otimização dos esforços de marketing. O estudo descritivo pode gerar insights para a compreensão da expansão do crédito ao consumo, sobretudo num contexto de escassez de opções de financiamento e limitação no canal de distribuição. Foram usados dados de uma base de clientes de uma instituição financeira com variáveis sócio demográficas e transacionai, e o modelo matemático foi seguido da validação de sua capacidade preditiva.

Uma investigação sobre o impacto dos accruals na variabilidade dos resultados nos diferentes contrastes cross-sectional nas firmas brasileiras de capital aberto

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo principal investigar o impacto dos accruals na variabilidade dos resultados corporativos (EVAR) que influenciam a aplicação prática do income smoothing nas firmas brasileiras de capital aberto. Inicialmente, é demonstrada a importância das demonstrações contábeis que devem ser evidenciadas em cumprimento aos princípios contábeis geralmente aceitos. Sua evidenciação deve representar a realidade econômico-financeira da firma para o processo de tomada de decisão dos acionistas e credores. Porém, em determinados momentos, os gestores se sentem motivados a praticar o gerenciamento dos resultados contábeis na tentativa de reduzir a variabilidade dos lucros por meio da utilização dos accruals. Os accruals correspondem à diferença entre o lucro líquido e o fluxo de caixa operacional. Nesse processo de redução da volatilidade dos resultados, os gestores se utilizam da prática do income smoothing procurando reduzir eventuais distorções no preço das ações da firma. A amostra neste estudo é composta por um grupo de 163 firmas de capital aberto listadas na Bovespa e que apresentaram informações financeiras no intervalo de 2000 a 2007, categorizadas por setores através de dados obtidos na Economática. O modelo estatístico utilizado na pesquisa foi a análise de regressão para explicar os diferentes modelos de cross-sectional. Os resultados desta pesquisa indicam que os accruals são significativos para explicar a variabilidade dos resultados corporativos (EVAR) de empresas brasileiras. Além disso, nossos resultados sugerem que o modelo estrutural de identificação do EVAR nas empresas brasileiras deve ser explicado por variáveis não contábeis diferentes das que são apresentadas pelas firmas norte-americanas.

Dual resource transfers and interruption in external debt service

Externai debt service requires a dual resource transfer. Trade surpluses have to be generated in order to make foreign exchange revenues available for debt repayment. In addition, with developing countries' externai debt being largely a public liability, debt service requires that resources can be effectively transferred from the private to the public sector. This paper derives a statistical model for dealing with dual constraints in the presence of binary dependent variables and applies it to the dual resource transfer problem. The results from the estimation of the model for a sample of 31 middle-income developing countries in the period of 1980 to 1990, strongly support the hypothesis that both externai and fiscal constraints are important in explaining externai debt service disruptions.

Modelagem analítica e experimental da filtração em meios porosos

Deep bed filtration occurs in several industrial and environmental processes like water filtration and soil contamination. In petroleum industry, deep bed filtration occurs near to injection wells during water injection, causing injectivity reduction. It also takes place during well drilling, sand production control, produced water disposal in aquifers, etc. The particle capture in porous media can be caused by different physical mechanisms (size exclusion, electrical forces, bridging, gravity, etc). A statistical model for filtration in porous media is proposed and analytical solutions for suspended and retained particles are derived. The model, which incorporates particle retention probability, is compared with the classical deep bed filtration model allowing a physical interpretation of the filtration coefficients. Comparison of the obtained analytical solutions for the proposed model with the classical model solutions allows concluding that the larger the particle capture probability, the larger the discrepancy between the proposed and the classical models

Genetic associations between weight at maturity and maturation rate with ages and weights at first and second calving in Canchim beef cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Efeito da linhagem citoplasmática sobre a produção de leite em bovinos da raça Caracu

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeito da idade da vaca e da data juliana de nascimento sobre o ganho médio diário de bezerros de corte no período pré-desmame

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Qualidade em serviços de saúde: uma contribuição à definição de um modelo paramétrico e padrão de qualidade do tempo agendado para consulta ambulatorial

This work presents a study in quality of health care, with focus on consulting appointment. The main purpose is to define a statistical model and propose a quality grade of the consulting appointment time. The time considered is that from the day the patient get the appointment done to the day the consulting is realized. It is used reliability techniques and functions that has as main characteristic the analysis of data regarding the time of occurrence certain event. It is gathered a random sample of 1743 patients in the appointment system of a University Hospital - the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes - of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The sample is randomly stratified in terms on clinical specialty. The data were analyzed against the parametric methods of the reliability statistics and the adjustment of the regression model resulted in the Weibull distribution being best fit to data. The quality grade proposed is based in the PAHO criteria for a consulting appointment and result that no clinic got the PAHO quality grade. The quality grade proposed could be used to define priority for improvement and as criteria to quality control

Efeitos da utilização de diferentes covariáveis na avaliação do ganho de peso médio diário em suínos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelagem e medições de ondas de rádio para predição de perda de propagação em ambientes urbanos

In this dissertation new models of propagation path loss predictions are proposed by from techniques of optimization recent and measures of power levels for the urban and suburban areas of Natal, city of Brazilian northeast. These new proposed models are: (i) a statistical model that was implemented based in the addition of second-order statistics for the power and the altimetry of the relief in model of linear losses; (ii) a artificial neural networks model used the training of the algorithm backpropagation, in order to get the equation of propagation losses; (iii) a model based on the technique of the random walker, that considers the random of the absorption and the chaos of the environment and than its unknown parameters for the equation of propagation losses are determined through of a neural network. The digitalization of the relief for the urban and suburban areas of Natal were carried through of the development of specific computational programs and had been used available maps in the Statistics and Geography Brazilian Institute. The validations of the proposed propagation models had been carried through comparisons with measures and propagation classic models, and numerical good agreements were observed. These new considered models could be applied to any urban and suburban scenes with characteristic similar architectural to the city of Natal

A influência da adição de caulim, quartzo e feldspato potássico na formulação de massas cerâmicas para telhas: Modelo estatístico

The production of roof tiles in the state of Rio Grande do Norte accounts for around 60% of the total of ceramic pieces produced. There is a need for investment to improve quality and productivity, thereby promoting technological innovations. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to determine the effect of kaolin, potassium feldspar and quartz in two standard formulations, as well as the effect of sintering temperature on the technological properties of linear firing shrinkage, water absorption and bending rupture stress, by fitting the statistical model and using multiple linear regression to assess the relationship between technological properties and independent variables. The raw materials were characterized using the following techniques: X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRF), rational analysis (RA), differential thermal analysis (DTA) and granulometric analysis (GA). The test specimens were compacted by uniaxial pressure (25 MPa), dried in a stove at 110 ºC for 24 hours and sinterized at 850 ºC, 950 ºC and 1050 ºC and held isothermal for 30 minutes. The results obtained indicate that the addition of kaolin to two standard formulations (M and R) promoted a reduction in water absorption values and an increase in bending rupture stress values. The sintering temperatures for group M that resulted in the lowest linear firing shrinkage and water absorption values were 850 ºC and 950 ºC, respectively, and the highest bending rupture stress values were reached at a temperature of 950 ºC. In the case of group R, the sintering temperature that obtained the lowest water absorption and linear firing shrinkage values was 850 ºC, and the highest bending rupture stress values were attained at a temperature of 1050 ºC. This work explains the statistical approach used to fit the model that describes the relationship between the technological properties and percentage of kaolin, quartz and feldspar, as well as the models that enable predictions, provided that the lower and upper limits of the percentage of clay minerals, flux and quartz used in this study are respected. Statistica 6 software was used and results were obtained by stepwise forward regression

Teste de condutividade elétrica em função do número de sementes e da quantidade de água para sementes de milheto

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influência do tamanho na germinação e no vigor de sementes de milheto (Pennisetum americanum (L.) Leeke)

O milheto é uma gramínea anual de sementes pequenas, com grande diversidade de tamanho, e com dificuldade, às vezes, do estabelecimento da população adequada de plantas. Este experimento objetivou verificar a influência do tamanho da semente de milheto sobre sua germinação e vigor. Foram utilizados quatro lotes de sementes (I, II, III e IV), classificados em quatro tamanhos, através de peneiras de malha quadrada, sendo: peneira 1 ≥ 2,00mm, peneira 2: 1,68 a 2,00mm, peneira 3: 1,41 a 1,68mm, peneira 4: 0,71 a 1,41mm e mais uma porção do lote original (testemunha), que constituíram os tamanhos. Foram realizados os testes de: peso de 1000 sementes, germinação inicial e após seis meses de armazenamento (TGI e TGII, respectivamente) e vigor (primeira contagem do teste de germinação e condutividade elétrica das sementes). Utilizou-se o delineamento experimental inteiramente casualizado, com quatro repetições por tratamento. As sementes de peneira 4 apresentaram menores pesos de 1000 sementes para todos os lotes, menores valores de germinação para o TGI, em todos os lotes, e para o TGII nos lotes II e IV. Para o vigor (primeira contagem do teste de germinação) observou-se menor valor para peneira 4, nos lotes I, II e IV; enquanto para a condutividade, a peneira 4 apresentou maior valor para todos os lotes, indicando pior qualidade fisiológica dessas sementes. Concluiu-se que a germinação e o vigor das sementes de milheto são influenciados pelo seu tamanho; sementes maiores são de melhor qualidade do que as menores.

Otimização do tempo e temperatura no processamento da gipsita oriunda dos cristalizadores da produção de sal para obter gesso de uso na construção civil

During the process of the salt production, the first the salt crystals formed are disposed of as industrial waste. This waste is formed basically by gypsum, composed of calcium sulfate dihydrate (CaSO4.2H2O), known as carago cru or malacacheta . After be submitted the process of calcination to produce gypsum (CaSO4.0,5H2O), can be made possible its application in cement industry. This work aims to optimize the time and temperature for the process of calcination of the gypsum (carago) for get beta plaster according to the specifications of the norms of civil construction. The experiments involved the chemical and mineralogical characterization of the gypsum (carago) from the crystallizers, and of the plaster that is produced in the salt industry located in Mossoró, through the following techniques: x-ray diffraction (XRD), x-ray fluorescence (FRX), thermogravimetric analysis (TG/DTG) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with EDS. For optimization of time and temperature of the process of calcination was used the planning three factorial with levels with response surfaces of compressive mechanical tests and setting time, according norms NBR-13207: Plasters for civil construction and x-ray diffraction of plasters (carago) beta obtained in calcination. The STATISTICA software 7.0 was used for the calculations to relate the experimental data for a statistical model. The process for optimization of calcination of gypsum (carago) occurred in the temperature range from 120° C to 160° C and the time in the range of 90 to 210 minutes in the oven at atmospheric pressure, it was found that with the increase of values of temperature of 160° C and time calcination of 210 minutes to get the results of tests of resistance to compression with values above 10 MPa which conform to the standard required (> 8.40) and that the X-ray diffractograms the predominance of the phase of hemidrato beta, getting a beta plaster of good quality and which is in accordance with the norms in force, giving a by-product of the salt industry employability in civil construction