STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

ArrayMining: a modular web-application for microarray analysis combining ensemble and consensus methods with cross-study normalization

Background: Statistical analysis of DNA microarray data provides a valuable diagnostic tool for the investigation of genetic components of diseases. To take advantage of the multitude of available data sets and analysis methods, it is desirable to combine both different algorithms and data from different studies. Applying ensemble learning, consensus clustering and cross-study normalization methods for this purpose in an almost fully automated process and linking different analysis modules together under a single interface would simplify many microarray analysis tasks. Results: We present ArrayMining.net, a web-application for microarray analysis that provides easy access to a wide choice of feature selection, clustering, prediction, gene set analysis and cross-study normalization methods. In contrast to other microarray-related web-tools, multiple algorithms and data sets for an analysis task can be combined using ensemble feature selection, ensemble prediction, consensus clustering and cross-platform data integration. By interlinking different analysis tools in a modular fashion, new exploratory routes become available, e.g. ensemble sample classification using features obtained from a gene set analysis and data from multiple studies. The analysis is further simplified by automatic parameter selection mechanisms and linkage to web tools and databases for functional annotation and literature mining. Conclusion: ArrayMining.net is a free web-application for microarray analysis combining a broad choice of algorithms based on ensemble and consensus methods, using automatic parameter selection and integration with annotation databases.

Ultrastructural analysis of root canal dentine irradiated with 980-nm diode laser energy at different parameters

Objective: The purpose of this in vitro study was to investigate using the scanning electron microscope (SEM) the ultrastructural morphological changes of the radicular dentine surface after irradiation with 980-nm diode laser energy at different parameters and angles of incidence. Background Data: There have been limited reports on the effects of diode laser irradiation at 980 nm on radicular dentin morphology. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two maxillary canines were sectioned and roots were biomechanically prepared using K3 rotary instruments. The teeth were irrigated with 2 mL of distilled water between files and final irrigation was performed with 10 mL of distilled water. The teeth were then randomly divided into five groups (n = 8 each) according to their diode laser parameters: Group 1: no irradiation (control); group 2: 1.5 W/continuous wave (CW) emission (the manufacturer's parameters); group 3: 1.5 W/100 Hz; group 4: 3 W/CW; and group 5: 3 W/100 Hz. Laser energy was applied with helicoid movements (parallel to the canal walls) for 20 sec. Eight additional teeth for each group were endodontically prepared and split longitudinally and irradiation was applied perpendicularly to the root surface. Results: Statistical analysis showed no difference between the root canal thirds irradiated with the 980-nm diode laser, and similar results between the parameters 1.5 W/CW and 3 W/100 Hz (p > 0.05). Conclusion: When considering different output powers and delivery modes our results showed that changes varied from smear layer removal to dentine fusion.

Trends in dermatomyositis- and polymyositis-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2007: multiple cause-of-death analysis

Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.

UV-Derivative Spectrophotometric and Stability-Indicating High-Performance Liquid Chromatographic Methods for Determination of Simvastatin in Tablets

A stability-indicating high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) and a second-order derivative spectrophotometric (UVDS) analytical methods were validated and compared for determination of simvastatin in tablets. The HPLC method was performed with isocratic elution using a C18 column and a mobile phase composed of methanol:acetonitrile:water (60:20:20, v/v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min. The detection was made at 239 nm. In UVDS method, methanol and water were used in first dilution and distilled water was used in consecutive dilutions and as background. The second-order derivative signal measurement was taken at 255 nm. Analytical curves showed correlation coefficients > 0.999 for both methods. The quantitation limits (QL) were 2.41 mu g/ml for HPLC and 0.45 mu g/ml for UVDS, respectively. Intra and inter-day relative standard deviations were < 2.0 %. Statistical analysis with t- and F-tests are not exceeding their critical values demonstrating that there is no significant difference between the two methods at 95 % confidence level.

Immunohistochemical analysis of p53, APE1, hMSH2 and ERCC1 proteins in actinic cheilitis and lip squamous cell carcinoma

Aims: This study has compared the tissue expression of the p53 tumour suppressor protein and DNA repair proteins APE1, hMSH2 and ERCC1 in normal, dysplastic and malignant lip epithelium. Methods and results: Morphological analysis and immunohistochemistry were performed on archived specimens of normal lip mucosa (n = 15), actinic cheilitis (AC) (n = 30), and lip squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) (n = 27). AC samples were classified morphologically according to the severity of epithelial dysplasia and risk of malignant transformation. LSCC samples were morphologically staged according to WHO and invasive front grading (IFG) criteria. Differences between groups and morphological stages were determined by bivariate statistical analysis. Progressive increases in the percentage of epithelial cells expressing p53 and APE1 were associated with increases in morphological malignancy from normal lip mucosa to LSCC. There was also a significant reduction in epithelial cells expressing hMSH2 and ERCC1 proteins in the AC and LSCC groups. A higher percentage of malignant cells expressing APE1 was found in samples with an aggressive morphological IFG grade. Conclusions: Our data showed that epithelial cells from premalignant to malignant lip disease exhibited changes in the expression of p53, APE1, hMSH2 and ERCC1 proteins; these molecular change might contribute to lip carcinogenesis.

Genetic Analysis of Age-at-Onset for Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Brazilian Family Study

Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Influence of third-generation oral contraceptives on the complexity analysis and symbolic dynamics of heart rate variability

Objective To evaluate the influence of oral contraceptives (OCs) containing 20 mu mu g ethinylestradiol (EE) and 150 mu mu g gestodene (GEST) on the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) in women. Methods One-hundred and fifty-five women aged 24 +/-+/- 2 years were divided into four groups according to their physical activity and the use or not of an OC: active-OC, active-non-OC (NOC), sedentary-OC, and sedentary-NOC. The heart rate was registered in real time based on the electrocardiogram signal for 15 minutes, in the supine-position. The heart rate variability (HRV) was analysed using Shannon`s entropy (SE), conditional entropy (complexity index [CInd] and normalised CInd [NCI]), and symbolic analysis (0V%, 1V%, 2LV%, and 2ULV%). For statistical analysis the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post hoc and the Wilcoxon test (p < 0.05 was considered significant) were applied. Results Treatment with this COC caused no significant changes in SE, CInd, NCI, or symbolic analysis in either active or sedentary groups. Active groups presented higher values for SE and 2ULV%, and lower values for 0V% when compared to sedentary groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion HRV patterns differed depending on life style; the non-linear method applied was highly reliable for identifying these changes. The use of OCs containing 20 mu mu g EE and 150 mu mu g GEST does not influence HR autonomic modulation.

Cytogenetic and molecular analysis of MLL rearrangements in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia survivors

The successful treatment of paediatric malignancies by multimodal therapy has improved outcomes for children with cancer, especially those with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Second malignant neoplasms, however, represent a serious complication after treatment. Depending on dosage, 2-12% of patients treated with topoisomerase II inhibitors and/or alkylating agents develop treatment-related acute myeloid leukaemia characterized by translocations at 11q23. Our goal was to study MLL rearrangements in peripheral lymphocytes using cytogenetic and molecular methods in order to evaluate the late effects of cancer therapy in patients previously treated for childhood ALL. Chromosomal rearrangements at 11q23 were analysed in cytogenetic preparations from 49 long-term ALL survivors and 49 control individuals. Patients were subdivided depending on the inclusion or omission of topoisomerase II inhibitors (VP-16 and/or VM-26) in their treatment protocol. The statistical analysis showed significant (P = 0.007) differences between the frequency of translocations observed for the groups of patients and controls. These differences were also significant (P = 0.006) when the groups of patients (independent of the inclusion of topoisomerase II inhibitors) and controls were compared (P = 0.006). The frequencies of extra signals, however, did not differ between groups of patients and controls. Several MLL translocations were detected and identified by inverse polymerase chain reaction, followed by cloning and sequencing. Thirty-five patients (81%) presented putative translocations; among those, 91% corresponded with t(4;11) (q21;q23), while the other 9% corresponded with t(11;X), t(8;11)(q23;q23) and t(11;16). Our results indicate an increase in MLL aberrations in childhood ALL survivors years after completion of therapy. The higher frequency in this cohort might be associated with therapy using anti-tumoural drugs, independent of the inclusion of topoisomerase II inhibitors. Even though the biological significance of these rearrangements needs further investigation, they demonstrate a degree of genome instability, indicating the relevance of cytogenetic and molecular studies during the follow-up of patients in complete clinical remission.

Quantitative CT analysis of the glabellar and anterior nasal spine regions for the placement of implants for nasal prosthesis retention

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the precision of the measurements of 2 craniometric anatomic points-glabella and anterior nasal spine-in order to verify their possibility as potential locations for placing implants aimed at nasal prostheses retention. Methods: Twenty-six dry human skulls were scanned in a high-resolution spiral tomography with 1-mm axial slice thickness and 1-mm interval reconstruction using a bone tissue filter. Images obtained were stored and transferred to an independent workstation containing e-film imaging software. The measurements (in the glabella and anterior nasal fossa) were made independently by 2 observers twice for each measurement. Data were submitted to statistical analysis (parametric t test). Results: The results demonstrated no statistically significant difference between interobserver and intraobserver measurements (P > .05). The standard error was found to be between 0.49 mm and 0.84 mrn for measurements in bone protocol, indicating a high /eve/ of precision. Conclusions: The measurements obtained in anterior nasal spine and glabella were considered precise and reproducible. Mean values of such measurements pointed to the possibility of implant placement in these regions, particularly in the anterior nasal spine.

Density functional theory analysis of the influence of pore wall heterogeneity on adsorption in carbons

Density functional theory for adsorption in carbons is adapted here to incorporate a random distribution of pore wall thickness in the solid, and it is shown that the mean pore wall thickness is intimately related to the pore size distribution characteristics. For typical carbons the pore walls are estimated to comprise only about two graphene layers, and application of the modified density functional theory approach shows that the commonly used assumption of infinitely thick walls can severely affect the results for adsorption in small pores under both supercritical and subcritical conditions. Under supercritical conditions the Henry's law coefficient is overpredicted by as much as a factor of 2, while under subcritical conditions pore wall heterogeneity appears to modify transitions in small pores into a sequence of smaller ones corresponding to pores with different wall thicknesses. The results suggest the need to improve current pore size distrubution analysis methods to allow for pore wall heterogeneity. The density functional theory is further extended here to allow for interpore adsorbate interactions, and it appears that these interaction are negligible for small molecules such as nitrogen but significant for more strongly interacting heavier molecules such as butane, for which the traditional independent pore model may not be adequate.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Online titrimetric and off-gas analysis for examining nitrification processes in wastewater treatment

The two steps of nitrification, namely the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrite to nitrate, often need to be considered separately in process studies. For a detailed examination, it is desirable to monitor the two-step sequence using online measurements. In this paper, the use of online titrimetric and off-gas analysis (TOGA) methods for the examination of the process is presented. Using the known reaction stoichiometry, combination of the measured signals (rates of hydrogen ion production, oxygen uptake and carbon dioxide transfer) allows the determination of the three key process rates, namely the ammonia consumption rate, the nitrite accumulation rate and the nitrate production rate. Individual reaction rates determined with the TOGA sensor under a number of operation conditions are presented. The rates calculated directly from the measured signals are compared with those obtained from offline liquid sample analysis. Statistical analysis confirms that the results from the two approaches match well. This result could not have been guaranteed using alternative online methods. As a case study, the influences of pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) on nitrite accumulation are tested using the proposed method. It is shown that nitrite accumulation decreased with increasing DO and pH. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounders using an electronic spreadsheet

In studies assessing the effects of a given exposure variable and a specific outcome of interest, confusion may arise from the mistaken impression that the exposure variable is producing the outcome of interest, when in fact the observed effect is due to an existing confounder. However, quantitative techniques are rarely used to determine the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Sensitivity analysis is a statistical technique that allows to quantitatively measuring the impact of an unmeasured confounding variable on the association of interest that is being assessed. The purpose of this study was to make it feasible to apply two sensitivity analysis methods available in the literature, developed by Rosenbaum and Greenland, using an electronic spreadsheet. Thus, it can be easier for researchers to include this quantitative tool in the set of procedures that have been commonly used in the stage of result validation.

Practical Quality Control: Comparision of Methods on the Quantification of Stationary Phases in Paper and Thin-Layer Chromatographic Systems

Introduction: Paper and thin layer chromatography methods are frequently used in Classic Nuclear Medicine for the determination of radiochemical purity (RCP) on radiopharmaceutical preparations. An aliquot of the radiopharmaceutical to be tested is spotted at the origin of a chromatographic strip (stationary phase), which in turn is placed in a chromatographic chamber in order to separate and quantify radiochemical species present in the radiopharmaceutical preparation. There are several methods for the RCP measurement, based on the use of equipment as dose calibrators, well scintillation counters, radiochromatografic scanners and gamma cameras. The purpose of this study was to compare these quantification methods for the determination of RCP. Material and Methods: 99mTc-Tetrofosmin and 99mTc-HDP are the radiopharmaceuticals chosen to serve as the basis for this study. For the determination of RCP of 99mTc-Tetrofosmin we used ITLC-SG (2.5 x 10 cm) and 2-butanone (99mTc-tetrofosmin Rf = 0.55, 99mTcO4- Rf = 1.0, other labeled impurities 99mTc-RH RF = 0.0). For the determination of RCP of 99mTc-HDP, Whatman 31ET and acetone was used (99mTc-HDP Rf = 0.0, 99mTcO4- Rf = 1.0, other labeled impurities RF = 0.0). After the development of the solvent front, the strips were allowed to dry and then imaged on the gamma camera (256x256 matrix; zoom 2; LEHR parallel-hole collimator; 5-minute image) and on the radiochromatogram scanner. Then, strips were cut in Rf 0.8 in the case of 99mTc-tetrofosmin and Rf 0.5 in the case of 99mTc-HDP. The resultant pieces were smashed in an assay tube (to minimize the effect of counting geometry) and counted in the dose calibrator and in the well scintillation counter (during 1 minute). The RCP was calculated using the formula: % 99mTc-Complex = [(99mTc-Complex) / (Total amount of 99mTc-labeled species)] x 100. Statistical analysis was done using the test of hypotheses for the difference between means in independent samples. Results:The gamma camera based method demonstrated higher operator-dependency (especially concerning the drawing of the ROIs) and the measures obtained using the dose calibrator are very sensitive to the amount of activity spotted in the chromatographic strip, so the use of a minimum of 3.7 MBq activity is essential to minimize quantification errors. Radiochromatographic scanner and well scintillation counter showed concordant results and demonstrated the higher level of precision. Conclusions: Radiochromatographic scanners and well scintillation counters based methods demonstrate to be the most accurate and less operator-dependant methods.