Pollen analysis and planted ancient woodland restoration strategies: a case study from the Wentwood, southeast Wales,UK

This paper considers the contribution of pollen analysis to conservation strategies aimed at restoring planted ancient woodland. Pollen and charcoal data are presented from organic deposits located adjacent to the Wentwood, a large planted ancient woodland in southeast Wales. Knowledge of the ecosystems preceding conifer planting can assist in restoring ancient woodlands by placing fragmented surviving ancient woodland habitats in a broader ecological, historical and cultural context. These habitats derive largely from secondary woodland that regenerated in the 3rd–5th centuries A.D. following largescale clearance of Quercus-Corylus woodland during the Romano-British period. Woodland regeneration favoured Fraxinus and Betula. Wood pasture and common land dominated the Wentwood during the medieval period until the enclosures of the 17th century. Surviving ancient woodland habitats contain an important Fagus component that probably reflects an earlier phase of planting preceding conifer planting in the 1880s. It is recommended that restoration measures should not aim to recreate static landscapes or woodland that existed under natural conditions. Very few habitats within the Wentwood can be considered wholly natural because of the long history of human impact. In these circumstances, restoration should focus on restoring those elements of the cultural landscape that are of most benefit to a range of flora and fauna, whilst taking into account factors that present significant issues for future conservation management, such as the adverse effects from projected climate change.

Genomic analysis for managing small and endangered populations: a case study in Tyrol Grey cattle

Analysis of genomic data is increasingly becoming part of the livestock industry. Therefore, the routine collection of genomic information would be an invaluable resource for effective management of breeding programs in small, endangered populations. The objective of the paper was to demonstrate how genomic data could be used to analyse (1) linkage disequlibrium (LD), LD decay and the effective population size (NeLD); (2) Inbreeding level and effective population size (NeROH) based on runs of homozygosity (ROH); (3) Prediction of genomic breeding values (GEBV) using small within-breed and genomic information from other breeds. The Tyrol Grey population was used as an example, with the goal to highlight the potential of genomic analyses for small breeds. In addition to our own results we discuss additional use of genomics to assess relatedness, admixture proportions, and inheritance of harmful variants. The example data set consisted of 218 Tyrol Grey bull genotypes, which were all available AI bulls in the population. After standard quality control restrictions 34,581 SNPs remained for the analysis. A separate quality control was applied to determine ROH levels based on Illumina GenCall and Illumina GenTrain scores, resulting into 211 bulls and 33,604 SNPs. LD was computed as the squared correlation coefficient between SNPs within a 10 mega base pair (Mb) region. ROHs were derived based on regions covering at least 4, 8, and 16 Mb, suggesting that animals had common ancestors approximately 12, 6, and 3 generations ago, respectively. The corresponding mean inbreeding coefficients (F ROH) were 4.0% for 4 Mb, 2.9% for 8 Mb and 1.6% for 16 Mb runs. With an average generation interval of 5.66 years, estimated NeROH was 125 (NeROH>16 Mb), 186 (NeROH>8 Mb) and 370 (NeROH>4 Mb) indicating strict avoidance of close inbreeding in the population. The LD was used as an alternative method to infer the population history and the Ne. The results show a continuous decrease in NeLD, to 780, 120, and 80 for 100, 10, and 5 generations ago, respectively. Genomic selection was developed for and is working well in large breeds. The same methodology was applied in Tyrol Grey cattle, using different reference populations. Contrary to the expectations, the accuracy of GEBVs with very small within breed reference populations were very high, between 0.13-0.91 and 0.12-0.63, when estimated breeding values and deregressed breeding values were used as pseudo-phenotypes, respectively. Subsequent analyses confirmed the high accuracies being a consequence of low reliabilities of pseudo-phenotypes in the validation set, thus being heavily influenced by parent averages. Multi-breed and across breed reference sets gave inconsistent and lower accuracies. Genomic information may have a crucial role in management of small breeds, even if its primary usage differs from that of large breeds. It allows to assess relatedness between individuals, trends in inbreeding and to take decisions accordingly. These decisions would be based on the real genome architecture, rather than conventional pedigree information, which can be missing or incomplete. We strongly suggest the routine genotyping of all individuals that belong to a small breed in order to facilitate the effective management of endangered livestock populations.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

Implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): an empirical analysis for the case of Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented to circumvent budgetary constraints, and to encourage efficiency and quality in the provision of public infrastructure in order to reach social welfare. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater larger will be the economic reward to the contractor. The main aim of this paper is to identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To that end, Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information of motorways of the Spanish network of 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Static analysis of WCET in a satellite software subsystem

This paper describes the authors? experience with static analysis of both WCET and stack usage of a satellite on-board software subsystem. The work is a continuation of a previous case study that used a dynamic WCET analysis tool on an earlier version of the same software system. In particular, the AbsInt aiT tool has been evaluated by analysing both C and Ada code generated by Simulink within the UPMSat-2 project. Some aspects of the aiT tool, specifically those dealing with SPARC register windows, are compared to another static analysis tool, Bound-T. The results of the analysis are discussed, and some conclusions on the use of static WCET analysis tools on the SPARC architecture are commented in the paper.

Static and Dynamic Experimental Analysis of the Galloping Stability of Porous H-Section Beams

The phenomenon of self-induced vibrations of prismatic beams in a cross-flow has been studied for decades, but it is still of great interest due to their important effects in many different industrial applications. This paper presents the experimental study developed on a prismatic beam with H-section.The aim of this analysis is to add some additional insight into the behaviour of the flow around this type of bodies, in order to reduce galloping and even to avoid it. The influence of some relevant geometrical parameters that define the H-section on the translational galloping behaviour of these beams has been analysed. Wind loads coefficients have been measured through static wind tunnel tests and the Den Hartog criterion applied to elucidate the influence of geometrical parameters on the galloping properties of the bodies under consideration.These results have been completed with surface pressure distribution measurements and, besides, dynamic tests have been also performed to verify the static criterion. Finally, the morphology of the flow past the tested bodies has been visualised by using smoke visualization techniques. Since the rectangular section beam is a limiting case of the H-section configuration, the results here obtained are compared with the ones published in the literature concerning rectangular configurations; the agreement is satisfactory.

Analysis of the static and dynamic behaviour of hydraulic fills

En la actualidad existe un gran conocimiento en la caracterización de rellenos hidráulicos, tanto en su caracterización estática, como dinámica. Sin embargo, son escasos en la literatura estudios más generales y globales de estos materiales, muy relacionados con sus usos y principales problemáticas en obras portuarias y mineras. Los procedimientos semi‐empíricos para la evaluación del efecto silo en las celdas de cajones portuarios, así como para el potencial de licuefacción de estos suelos durantes cargas instantáneas y terremotos, se basan en estudios donde la influencia de los parámetros que los rigen no se conocen en gran medida, dando lugar a resultados con considerable dispersión. Este es el caso, por ejemplo, de los daños notificados por el grupo de investigación del Puerto de Barcelona, la rotura de los cajones portuarios en el Puerto de Barcelona en 2007. Por estos motivos y otros, se ha decidido desarrollar un análisis para la evaluación de estos problemas mediante la propuesta de una metodología teórico‐numérica y empírica. El enfoque teórico‐numérico desarrollado en el presente estudio se centra en la determinación del marco teórico y las herramientas numéricas capaces de solventar los retos que presentan estos problemas. La complejidad del problema procede de varios aspectos fundamentales: el comportamiento no lineal de los suelos poco confinados o flojos en procesos de consolidación por preso propio; su alto potencial de licuefacción; la caracterización hidromecánica de los contactos entre estructuras y suelo (camino preferencial para el flujo de agua y consolidación lateral); el punto de partida de los problemas con un estado de tensiones efectivas prácticamente nulo. En cuanto al enfoque experimental, se ha propuesto una metodología de laboratorio muy sencilla para la caracterización hidromecánica del suelo y las interfaces, sin la necesidad de usar complejos aparatos de laboratorio o procedimientos excesivamente complicados. Este trabajo incluye por tanto un breve repaso a los aspectos relacionados con la ejecución de los rellenos hidráulicos, sus usos principales y los fenómenos relacionados, con el fin de establecer un punto de partida para el presente estudio. Este repaso abarca desde la evolución de las ecuaciones de consolidación tradicionales (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English & Hussey, 1967) y las metodologías de cálculo (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) hasta las contribuciones en relación al efecto silo (Ranssen, 1985) (Ravenet, 1977) y sobre el fenómeno de la licuefacción (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). Con motivo de este estudio se ha desarrollado exclusivamente un código basado en el método de los elementos finitos (MEF) empleando el programa MATLAB. Para ello, se ha esablecido un marco teórico (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz & Shiomi, 1984) (Segura & Caron, 2004) y numérico (Zienkiewicz & Taylor, 1989) (Huerta & Rodríguez, 1992) (Segura & Carol, 2008) para resolver problemas de consolidación multidimensional con condiciones de contorno friccionales, y los correspondientes modelos constitutivos (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fiu & Liu, 2011). Asimismo, se ha desarrollado una metodología experimental a través de una serie de ensayos de laboratorio para la calibración de los modelos constitutivos y de la caracterización de parámetros índice y de flujo (Castro, 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies, 2006). Para ello se han empleado arenas de Hostun como material (relleno hidráulico) de referencia. Como principal aportación se incluyen una serie de nuevos ensayos de corte directo para la caracterización hidromecánica de la interfaz suelo – estructura de hormigón, para diferentes tipos de encofrados y rugosidades. Finalmente, se han diseñado una serie de algoritmos específicos para la resolución del set de ecuaciones diferenciales de gobierno que definen este problema. Estos algoritmos son de gran importancia en este problema para tratar el procesamiento transitorio de la consolidación de los rellenos hidráulicos, y de otros efectos relacionados con su implementación en celdas de cajones, como el efecto silo y la licuefacciones autoinducida. Para ello, se ha establecido un modelo 2D axisimétrico, con formulación acoplada u‐p para elementos continuos y elementos interfaz (de espesor cero), que tratan de simular las condiciones de estos rellenos hidráulicos cuando se colocan en las celdas portuarias. Este caso de estudio hace referencia clara a materiales granulares en estado inicial muy suelto y con escasas tensiones efectivas, es decir, con prácticamente todas las sobrepresiones ocasionadas por el proceso de autoconsolidación (por peso propio). Por todo ello se requiere de algoritmos numéricos específicos, así como de modelos constitutivos particulares, para los elementos del continuo y para los elementos interfaz. En el caso de la simulación de diferentes procedimientos de puesta en obra de los rellenos se ha requerido la modificacion de los algoritmos empleados para poder así representar numéricamente la puesta en obra de estos materiales, además de poder realizar una comparativa de los resultados para los distintos procedimientos. La constante actualización de los parámetros del suelo, hace también de este algoritmo una potente herramienta que permite establecer un interesante juego de perfiles de variables, tales como la densidad, el índice de huecos, la fracción de sólidos, el exceso de presiones, y tensiones y deformaciones. En definitiva, el modelo otorga un mejor entendimiento del efecto silo, término comúnmente usado para definir el fenómeno transitorio del gradiente de presiones laterales en las estructuras de contención en forma de silo. Finalmente se incluyen una serie de comparativas entre los resultados del modelo y de diferentes estudios de la literatura técnica, tanto para el fenómeno de las consolidaciones por preso propio (Fredlund, Donaldson & Gitirana, 2009) como para el estudio del efecto silo (Puertos del Estado, 2006, EuroCódigo (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009), etc.). Para concluir, se propone el diseño de un prototipo de columna de decantación con paredes friccionales, como principal propuesta de futura línea de investigación. Wide research is nowadays available on the characterization of hydraulic fills in terms of either static or dynamic behavior. However, reported comprehensive analyses of these soils when meant for port or mining works are scarce. Moreover, the semi‐empirical procedures for assessing the silo effect on cells in floating caissons, and the liquefaction potential of these soils during sudden loads or earthquakes are based on studies where the underlying influence parameters are not well known, yielding results with significant scatter. This is the case, for instance, of hazards reported by the Barcelona Liquefaction working group, with the failure of harbor walls in 2007. By virtue of this, a complex approach has been undertaken to evaluate the problem by a proposal of numerical and laboratory methodology. Within a theoretical and numerical scope, the study is focused on the numerical tools capable to face the different challenges of this problem. The complexity is manifold; the highly non‐linear behavior of consolidating soft soils; their potentially liquefactable nature, the significance of the hydromechanics of the soil‐structure contact, the discontinuities as preferential paths for water flow, setting “negligible” effective stresses as initial conditions. Within an experimental scope, a straightforward laboratory methodology is introduced for the hydromechanical characterization of the soil and the interface without the need of complex laboratory devices or cumbersome procedures. Therefore, this study includes a brief overview of the hydraulic filling execution, main uses (land reclamation, filled cells, tailing dams, etc.) and the underlying phenomena (self‐weight consolidation, silo effect, liquefaction, etc.). It comprises from the evolution of the traditional consolidation equations (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English, & Hussey, 1967) and solving methodologies (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) to the contributions in terms of silo effect (Ranssen, 1895) (Ravenet, 1977) and liquefaction phenomena (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). The novelty of the study lies on the development of a Finite Element Method (FEM) code, exclusively formulated for this problem. Subsequently, a theoretical (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz and Shiomi, 1984) (Segura and Carol, 2004) and numerical approach (Zienkiewicz and Taylor, 1989) (Huerta, A. & Rodriguez, A., 1992) (Segura, J.M. & Carol, I., 2008) is introduced for multidimensional consolidation problems with frictional contacts and the corresponding constitutive models (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fu & Liu, 2011). An experimental methodology is presented for the laboratory test and material characterization (Castro 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies 2006) using Hostun sands as reference hydraulic fill. A series of singular interaction shear tests for the interface calibration is included. Finally, a specific model algorithm for the solution of the set of differential equations governing the problem is presented. The process of consolidation and settlements involves a comprehensive simulation of the transient process of decantation and the build‐up of the silo effect in cells and certain phenomena related to self‐compaction and liquefaction. For this, an implementation of a 2D axi‐syimmetric coupled model with continuum and interface elements, aimed at simulating conditions and self‐weight consolidation of hydraulic fills once placed into floating caisson cells or close to retaining structures. This basically concerns a loose granular soil with a negligible initial effective stress level at the onset of the process. The implementation requires a specific numerical algorithm as well as specific constitutive models for both the continuum and the interface elements. The simulation of implementation procedures for the fills has required the modification of the algorithm so that a numerical representation of these procedures is carried out. A comparison of the results for the different procedures is interesting for the global analysis. Furthermore, the continuous updating of the model provides an insightful logging of variable profiles such as density, void ratio and solid fraction profiles, total and excess pore pressure, stresses and strains. This will lead to a better understanding of complex phenomena such as the transient gradient in lateral pressures due to silo effect in saturated soils. Interesting model and literature comparisons for the self‐weight consolidation (Fredlund, Donaldson, & Gitirana, 2009) and the silo effect results (Puertos del Estado (2006), EuroCode (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009)). This study closes with the design of a decantation column prototype with frictional walls as the main future line of research.

Contribution to the analysis and design of reflectarray antennas for reconfigurable beam applications at frequencies above 100 GHz using liquid crystal technology

El trabajo contenido en esta tesis doctoral está encuadrado en el desarrollo de antenas reconfigurables electrónicamente capaces de proporcionar prestaciones competitivas a las aplicaciones cada vez más comunes que operan a frecuencias superiores a 60 GHz. En concreto, esta tesis se centra en el estudio, diseño, e implementación de las antenas reflectarray, a las que se introduce la tecnología de cristal líquido como elemento característico con el que se consigue reconfigurabilidad de haz de forma electrónica. Desde un punto de vista muy general, se puede describir un cristal líquido como un material cuya permitividad eléctrica es variable y controlada por una excitación externa, que generalmente suele corresponderse con un campo eléctrico quasi-estático (AC). Las antenas reflectarray de cristal líquido se han escogido como objeto de estudio por varias razones. La primera de ellas tiene que ver con las ventajas que los reflectarrays, y en especial aquellos realizados en configuración planar, proporcionan con respecto a otras antenas de alta ganancia como los reflectores o los “phased-arrays”. En los reflectarrays, la alimentación a través de una fuente primaria común (característica de reflectores) y el elevado número de grados de libertad de las celdas que los componen (característica de arrays) hacen que estas antenas puedan proporcionar prestaciones eléctricas iguales o mejores que las anteriores, a un coste más reducido y con estructuras de antena más compactas. La segunda razón radica en la flexibilidad que ofrece el cristal líquido a ser confinado y polarizado en recintos de geometría variada, como consecuencia de su fluidez (propiedad de los líquidos). Por ello, la tecnología de cristal líquido permite que el propio elemento reconfigurable en las celdas de reflectarray se adapte a la configuración planar de manera que en sí mismo, el cristal líquido sea una o varias de las capas características de esta configuración. Esto simplifica de forma drástica la estructura y la fabricación de este tipo de antenas, incluso si se comparan con reflectarrays reconfigurables basados en otras tecnologías como diodos, MEMS, etc. Por tanto, su coste y desarrollo es muy reducido, lo que hace que se puedan fabricar reflectarrays reconfigurables eléctricamente grandes, a bajo coste, y en producción elevada. Un ejemplo claro de una estructura similar, y que ha tenido éxito comercial, son las pantallas de cristal líquido. La tercera razón reside en el hecho de que el cristal líquido es, hasta la fecha, de las pocas tecnologías capaces de ofrecer reconfigurabilidad del haz a frecuencias superiores a 60 GHz. De hecho, el cristal líquido permite reconfigurabilidad en un amplio margen de frecuencias, que va desde DC a frecuencias del espectro visible, incluyendo las microondas y los THz. Otras tecnologías, como los materiales ferroeléctricos, el grafeno o la tecnología CMOS “on chip” permiten también conmutar el haz en estas frecuencias. Sin embargo, la tecnología CMOS tiene un elevado coste y actualmente está limitada a frecuencias inferiores a 150 GHz, y aunque los materiales ferroeléctricos o el grafeno puedan conmutar a frecuencias más altas y en un rango más amplio, tienen serias dificultades que los hacen aún inmaduros. En el caso de los materiales ferroeléctricos, los elevados voltajes para conmutar el material los hacen poco atractivos, mientras que en el caso del grafeno, su modelado aún está en discusión, y todavía no se han arrojado resultados experimentales que validen su idoneidad. Estas tres razones hacen que los reflectarrays basados en cristal líquido sean atractivos para multitud de aplicaciones de haz reconfigurable a frecuencias superiores a 60 GHz. Aplicaciones como radar de escaneo de imágenes de alta resolución, espectroscopia molecular, radiómetros para observación atmosférica, o comunicaciones inalámbricas de alta frecuencia (WiGig) son algunas de ellas. La tesis está estructurada en tres partes. En la primera de ellas se describen las características más comunes de los cristales líquidos, centrándonos en detalle en aquellas propiedades ofrecidas por este material en fase nemática. En concreto, se estudiará la anisotropía dieléctrica (Ae) de los cristales líquidos uniaxiales, que son los que se emplean en esta tesis, definida como la diferencia entre la permitividad paralela (£//) y la perpendicular (e±): Ae = e,, - e±. También se estudiará la variación de este parámetro (Ae) con la frecuencia, y el modelado electromagnético macroscópico más general que, extraído a partir de aquella, permite describir el cristal líquido para cada tensión de polarización en celdas de geometría planar. Este modelo es de suma importancia para garantizar precisión en el desfasaje proporcionado por las diferentes celdas reconfigurables para reflectarrays que se describirán en la siguiente parte de la tesis. La segunda parte de la tesis se centra en el diseño de celdas reflectarray resonantes basadas en cristal líquido. La razón por la que se escogen estos tipos de celdas reside en el hecho de que son las únicas capaces de proporcionar rangos de fase elevados ante la reducida anisotropía dieléctrica que ofrecen los cristales líquidos. El objetivo de esta parte trata, por tanto, de obtener estructuras de celdas reflectarray que sean capaces de proporcionar buenas prestaciones eléctricas a nivel de antena, mejorando sustancialmente las prestaciones de las celdas reportadas en el estado del arte, así como de desarrollar una herramienta de diseño general para aquellas. Para ello, se estudian las prestaciones eléctricas de diferentes tipos de elementos resonantes de cristal líquido que van, desde el más sencillo, que ha limitado el estado de la técnica hasta el desarrollo de esta tesis y que está formado por un sólo resonador, a elementos que constan de varios resonadores (multi-resonantes) y que pueden ser monocapa o multicapa. En un primer paso, el procedimiento de diseño de estas estructuras hace uso de un modelo convencional de cristal líquido que ha venido siendo usado en el estado del arte para este tipo de celdas, y que considera el cristal líquido como un material homogéneo e isótropo cuya permitividad varía entre (e/7) y (e±). Sin embargo, en esta parte de la tesis se demuestra que dicho modelado no es suficiente para describir de forma genérica el comportamiento del cristal líquido en las celdas tipo reflectarray. En la tesis se proponen procedimientos más exactos para el análisis y diseño basados en un modelo más general que define el cristal líquido como un material anisótropo e inhomogeneo en tres dimensiones, y se ha implementado una técnica que permite optimizar celdas multi-resonantes de forma eficiente para conseguir elevadas prestaciones en cuanto a ancho de banda, rango de fase, pérdidas, o sensibilidad al ángulo de incidencia. Los errores cometidos en el uso del modelado convencional a nivel de celda (amplitud y fase) se han analizado para varias geometrías, usando medidas de varios prototipos de antena que usan un cristal líquido real a frecuencias superiores a 100 GHz. Las medidas se han realizado en entorno periódico mediante un banco cuasi-óptico, que ha sido diseñado especialmente para este fin. Uno de estos prototipos se ha optimizado a 100 GHz para conseguir un ancho de banda relativamente elevado (10%), pérdidas reducidas, un rango de fase mayor de 360º, baja sensibilidad al ángulo de incidencia, y baja influencia de la inhomogeneidad transversal del cristal líquido en la celda. Estas prestaciones a nivel de celda superan de forma clara aquellas conseguidas por otros elementos que se han reportado en la literatura, de manera que dicho prototipo se ha usado en la última parte de la tesis para realizar diversas antenas de barrido. Finalmente, en esta parte se presenta una estrategia de caracterización de la anisotropía macroscópica a partir de medidas de los elementos de reflectarray diseñados en banco cuasi-óptico, obteniendo resultados tanto en las frecuencias de interés en RF como en AC, y comparándolas con aquellas obtenidas mediante otros métodos. La tercera parte de la tesis consiste en el estudio, diseño, fabricación y medida de antenas reconfigurables basadas en cristal líquido en configuraciones complejas. En reflectarrays pasivos, el procedimiento de diseño de la antena se limita únicamente al ajuste en cada celda de la antena de las dimensiones de las metalizaciones que se emplean para el control de fase, mediante procesos de optimización bien conocidos. Sin embargo, en el caso de reflectarrays reconfigurables basados en cristal líquido, resulta necesario un paso adicional, que consiste en calcular de forma adecuada las tensiones de control en cada celda del reflectarray para configurar la fase requerida en cada una de ellas, así como diseñar la estructura y los circuitos de control que permitan direccionar a cada elemento su tensión correspondiente. La síntesis de tensiones es por tanto igual o más importante que el diseño de la geometría de las celdas, puesto que éstas son las que están directamente relacionadas con la fase. En el estado del arte, existen varias estrategias de síntesis de tensiones que se basan en la caracterización experimental de la curva de fase respecto al voltaje. Sin embargo, esta caracterización sólo puede hacerse a un solo ángulo de incidencia y para unas determinadas dimensiones de celda, lo que produce que las tensiones sintetizadas sean diferentes de las adecuadas, y en definitiva que se alcancen errores de fase mayores de 70º. De esta forma, hasta la fecha, las prestaciones a nivel de antena que se han conseguido son reducidas en cuanto a ancho de banda, rango de escaneo o nivel de lóbulos secundarios. En esta última parte de la tesis, se introduce una nueva estrategia de síntesis de tensiones que es capaz de predecir mediante simulaciones, y con alta precisión, las tensiones que deben introducirse en cada celda teniendo en cuenta su ángulo de incidencia, sus dimensiones, la frecuencia, así como la señal de polarización definida por su frecuencia y forma de onda AC. Esta estrategia se basa en modelar cada uno de los estados de permitividad del cristal líquido como un sustrato anisótropo con inhomogeneidad longitudinal (1D), o en ciertos casos, como un tensor equivalente homogéneo. La precisión de ambos modelos electromagnéticos también se discute. Con el objetivo de obtener una herramienta eficiente de cálculo de tensiones, también se ha escrito e implementado una herramienta de análisis basada en el Método de los Momentos en el Dominio Espectral (SD-MoM) para sustratos estratificados anisótropos, que se usa en cada iteración del procedimiento de síntesis para analizar cada una de las celdas de la antena. La síntesis de tensiones se ha diseñado además para reducir al máximo el efecto del rizado de amplitud en el diagrama de radiación, que es característico en los reflectarrays que están formados por celdas con pérdidas elevadas, lo que en sí, supone un avance adicional para la obtención de mejores prestaciones de antena. Para el cálculo de los diagramas de radiación empleados en el procedimiento de síntesis, se asume un análisis elemento a elemento considerando periodicidad local, y se propone el uso de un método capaz de modelar el campo incidente de forma que se elimine la limitación de la periodicidad local en la excitación. Una vez definida la estrategia adecuada de cálculo de las tensiones a aplicar al cristal líquido en cada celda, la estructura de direccionamiento de las mismas en la antena, y diseñados los circuitos de control, se diseñan, fabrican y miden dos prototipos diferentes de antena de barrido electrónico a 100 GHz usando las celdas anteriormente presentadas. El primero de estos prototipos es un reflectarray en configuración “single offset” con capacidad de escaneo en un plano (elevación o azimut). Aunque previamente se realizan diseños de antenas de barrido en 2D a varias frecuencias en el rango de milimétricas y sub-milimétricas, y se proponen ciertas estrategias de direccionamiento que permiten conseguir este objetivo, se desarrolla el prototipo con direccionamiento en una dimensión con el fin de reducir el número de controles y posibles errores de fabricación, y así también validar la herramienta de diseño. Para un tamaño medio de apertura (con un numero de filas y columnas entre 30 y 50 elementos, lo que significa un reflectarray con un número de elementos superior a 900), la configuración “single offset” proporciona rangos de escaneo elevados, y ganancias que pueden oscilar entre los 20 y 30 dBi. En concreto, el prototipo medido proporciona un haz de barrido en un rango angular de 55º, en el que el nivel de lóbulos secundarios (SLL) permanece mejor de -13 dB en un ancho de banda de un 8%. La ganancia máxima es de 19.4 dBi. Estas prestaciones superan de forma clara aquellas conseguidas por otros autores. El segundo prototipo se corresponde con una antena de doble reflector que usa el reflectarray de cristal líquido como sub-reflector para escanear el haz en un plano (elevación o azimut). El objetivo básico de esta geometría es obtener mayores ganancias que en el reflectarray “single offset” con una estructura más compacta, aunque a expensas de reducir el rango de barrido. En concreto, se obtiene una ganancia máxima de 35 dBi, y un rango de barrido de 12º. Los procedimientos de síntesis de tensiones y de diseño de las estructuras de las celdas forman, en su conjunto, una herramienta completa de diseño precisa y eficiente de antenas reflectarray reconfigurables basados en cristales líquidos. Dicha herramienta se ha validado mediante el diseño, la fabricación y la medida de los prototipos anteriormente citados a 100 GHz, que consiguen algo nunca alcanzado anteriormente en la investigación de este tipo de antenas: unas prestaciones competitivas y una predicción excelente de los resultados. El procedimiento es general, y por tanto se puede usar a cualquier frecuencia en la que el cristal líquido ofrezca anisotropía dieléctrica, incluidos los THz. Los prototipos desarrollados en esta tesis doctoral suponen también unas de las primeras antenas de barrido real a frecuencias superiores a 100 GHz. En concreto, la antena de doble reflector para escaneo de haz es la primera antena reconfigurable electrónicamente a frecuencias superiores a 60 GHz que superan los 25 dBi de ganancia, siendo a su vez la primera antena de doble reflector que contiene un reflectarray reconfigurable como sub-reflector. Finalmente, se proponen ciertas mejoras que aún deben se deben realizar para hacer que estas antenas puedan ser un producto completamente desarrollado y competitivo en el mercado. ABSTRACT The work presented in this thesis is focused on the development of electronically reconfigurable antennas that are able to provide competitive electrical performance to the increasingly common applications operating at frequencies above 60 GHz. Specifically, this thesis presents the study, design, and implementation of reflectarray antennas, which incorporate liquid crystal (LC) materials to scan or reconfigure the beam electronically. From a general point of view, a liquid crystal can be defined as a material whose dielectric permittivity is variable and can be controlled with an external excitation, which usually corresponds with a quasi-static electric field (AC). By changing the dielectric permittivity at each cell that makes up the reflectarray, the phase shift on the aperture is controlled, so that a prescribed radiation pattern can be configured. Liquid Crystal-based reflectarrays have been chosen for several reasons. The first has to do with the advantages provided by the reflectarray antenna with respect to other high gain antennas, such as reflectors or phased arrays. The RF feeding in reflectarrays is achieved by using a common primary source (as in reflectors). This arrangement and the large number of degrees of freedom provided by the cells that make up the reflectarray (as in arrays), allow these antennas to provide a similar or even better electrical performance than other low profile antennas (reflectors and arrays), but assuming a more reduced cost and compactness. The second reason is the flexibility of the liquid crystal to be confined in an arbitrary geometry due to its fluidity (property of liquids). Therefore, the liquid crystal is able to adapt to a planar geometry so that it is one or more of the typical layers of this configuration. This simplifies drastically both the structure and manufacture of this type of antenna, even when compared with reconfigurable reflectarrays based on other technologies, such as diodes MEMS, etc. Therefore, the cost of developing this type of antenna is very small, which means that electrically large reconfigurable reflectarrays could be manufactured assuming low cost and greater productions. A paradigmatic example of a similar structure is the liquid crystal panel, which has already been commercialized successfully. The third reason lies in the fact that, at present, the liquid crystal is one of the few technologies capable of providing switching capabilities at frequencies above 60 GHz. In fact, the liquid crystal allows its permittivity to be switched in a wide range of frequencies, which are from DC to the visible spectrum, including microwaves and THz. Other technologies, such as ferroelectric materials, graphene or CMOS "on chip" technology also allow the beam to be switched at these frequencies. However, CMOS technology is expensive and is currently limited to frequencies below 150 GHz, and although ferroelectric materials or graphene can switch at higher frequencies and in a wider range, they have serious difficulties that make them immature. Ferroelectric materials involve the use of very high voltages to switch the material, making them unattractive, whereas the electromagnetic modelling of the graphene is still under discussion, so that the experimental results of devices based on this latter technology have not been reported yet. These three reasons make LC-based reflectarrays attractive for many applications that involve the use of electronically reconfigurable beams at frequencies beyond 60 GHz. Applications such as high resolution imaging radars, molecular spectroscopy, radiometers for atmospheric observation, or high frequency wireless communications (WiGig) are just some of them. This thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, the most common properties of the liquid crystal materials are described, especially those exhibited in the nematic phase. The study is focused on the dielectric anisotropy (Ac) of uniaxial liquid crystals, which is defined as the difference between the parallel (e/7) and perpendicular (e±) permittivities: Ae = e,, - e±. This parameter allows the permittivity of a LC confined in an arbitrary volume at a certain biasing voltage to be described by solving a variational problem that involves both the electrostatic and elastic energies. Thus, the frequency dependence of (Ae) is also described and characterised. Note that an appropriate LC modelling is quite important to ensure enough accuracy in the phase shift provided by each cell that makes up the reflectarray, and therefore to achieve a good electrical performance at the antenna level. The second part of the thesis is focused on the design of resonant reflectarray cells based on liquid crystal. The reason why resonant cells have been chosen lies in the fact that they are able to provide enough phase range using the values of the dielectric anisotropy of the liquid crystals, which are typically small. Thus, the aim of this part is to investigate several reflectarray cell architectures capable of providing good electrical performance at the antenna level, which significantly improve the electrical performance of the cells reported in the literature. Similarly, another of the objectives is to develop a general tool to design these cells. To fulfill these objectives, the electrical yields of different types of resonant reflectarray elements are investigated, beginning from the simplest, which is made up of a single resonator and limits the state of the art. To overcome the electrical limitations of the single resonant cell, several elements consisting of multiple resonators are considered, which can be single-layer or multilayer. In a first step, the design procedure of these structures makes use of a conventional electromagnetic model which has been used in the literature, which considers that the liquid crystal behaves as homogeneous and isotropic materials whose permittivity varies between (e/7) y (e±). However, in this part of the thesis it is shown that the conventional modelling is not enough to describe the physical behaviour of the liquid crystal in reflectarray cells accurately. Therefore, a more accurate analysis and design procedure based on a more general model is proposed and developed, which defines the liquid crystal as an anisotropic three-dimensional inhomogeneous material. The design procedure is able to optimize multi-resonant cells efficiently to achieve good electrical performance in terms of bandwidth, phase range, losses, or sensitivity to the angle of incidence. The errors made when the conventional modelling (amplitude and phase) is considered have been also analysed for various cell geometries, by using measured results from several antenna prototypes made up of real liquid crystals at frequencies above 100 GHz. The measurements have been performed in a periodic environment using a quasi-optical bench, which has been designed especially for this purpose. One of these prototypes has been optimized to achieve a relatively large bandwidth (10%) at 100 GHz, low losses, a phase range of more than 360º, a low sensitivity to angle of incidence, and a low influence of the transversal inhomogeneity of the liquid crystal in the cell. The electrical yields of this prototype at the cell level improve those achieved by other elements reported in the literature, so that this prototype has been used in the last part of the thesis to perform several complete antennas for beam scanning applications. Finally, in this second part of the thesis, a novel strategy to characterise the macroscopic anisotropy using reflectarray cells is presented. The results in both RF and AC frequencies are compared with those obtained by other methods. The third part of the thesis consists on the study, design, manufacture and testing of LCbased reflectarray antennas in complex configurations. Note that the design procedure of a passive reflectarray antenna just consists on finding out the dimensions of the metallisations of each cell (which are used for phase control), using well-known optimization processes. However, in the case of reconfigurable reflectarrays based on liquid crystals, an additional step must be taken into account, which consists of accurately calculating the control voltages to be applied to each cell to configure the required phase-shift distribution on the surface of the antenna. Similarly, the structure to address the voltages at each cell and the control circuitry must be also considered. Therefore, the voltage synthesis is even more important than the design of the cell geometries (dimensions), since the voltages are directly related to the phase-shift. Several voltage synthesis procedures have been proposed in the state of the art, which are based on the experimental characterization of the phase/voltage curve. However, this characterization can be only carried out at a single angle of incidence and at certain cell dimensions, so that the synthesized voltages are different from those needed, thus giving rise to phase errors of more than 70°. Thus, the electrical yields of the LCreflectarrays reported in the literature are limited in terms of bandwidth, scanning range or side lobes level. In this last part of the thesis, a new voltage synthesis procedure has been defined and developed, which allows the required voltage to be calculated at each cell using simulations that take into account the particular dimensions of the cells, their angles of incidence, the frequency, and the AC biasing signal (frequency and waveform). The strategy is based on the modelling of each one of the permittivity states of the liquid crystal as an anisotropic substrate with longitudinal inhomogeneity (1D), or in certain cases, as an equivalent homogeneous tensor. The accuracy of both electromagnetic models is also discussed. The phase errors made by using the proposed voltage synthesis are better than 7º. In order to obtain an efficient tool to analyse and design the reflectarray, an electromagnetic analysis tool based on the Method of Moments in the spectral domain (SD-MoM) has also written and developed for anisotropic stratified media, which is used at each iteration of the voltage synthesis procedure. The voltage synthesis is also designed to minimize the effect of amplitude ripple on the radiation pattern, which is typical of reflectarrays made up of cells exhibiting high losses and represents a further advance in achieving a better antenna performance. To calculate the radiation patterns used in the synthesis procedure, an element-by-element analysis is assumed, which considers the local periodicity approach. Under this consideration, the use of a novel method is proposed, which avoids the limitation that the local periodicity imposes on the excitation. Once the appropriate strategy to calculate the voltages to be applied at each cell is developed, and once it is designed and manufactured both the structure to address the voltages to the antenna and the control circuits, two complete LC-based reflectarray antennas that operate at 100 GHz have been designed, manufactured and tested using the previously presented cells. The first prototype consists of a single offset reflectarray with beam scanning capabilities on one plane (elevation and azimuth). Although several LC-reflectarray antennas that provide 2-D scanning capabilities are also designed, and certain strategies to achieve the 2-D addressing of the voltage are proposed, the manufactured prototype addresses the voltages in one dimension in order to reduce the number of controls and manufacturing errors, and thereby validating the design tool. For an average aperture size (with a number of rows and columns of between 30 and 50 elements, which means a reflectarray with more than 900 cells), the single offset configuration provides an antenna gain of between 20 and 30 dBi and a large scanning range. The prototype tested at 100 GHz exhibits an electronically scanned beam in an angular range of 55º and 8% of bandwidth, in which the side lobe level (SLL) remains better than -13 dB. The maximum gain is 19.4 dBi. The electrical performance of the antenna is clearly an improvement on those achieved by other authors in the state of the art. The second prototype corresponds to a dual reflector antenna with a liquid crystal-based reflectarray used as a sub-reflector for beam scanning in one plane (azimuth or elevation). The main objective is to obtain a higher gain than that provided by the single offset configuration, but using a more compact architecture. In this case, a maximum gain of 35 dBi is achieved, although at the expense of reducing the scanning range to 12°, which is inherent in this type of structure. As a general statement, the voltage synthesis and the design procedure of the cells, jointly make up a complete, accurate and efficient design tool of reconfigurable reflectarray antennas based on liquid crystals. The tool has been validated by testing the previously mentioned prototypes at 100 GHz, which achieve something never reached before for this type of antenna: a competitive electrical performance, and an excellent prediction of the results. The design procedure is general and therefore can be used at any frequency for which the liquid crystal exhibits dielectric anisotropy. The two prototypes designed, manufactured and tested in this thesis are also some of the first antennas that currently operate at frequencies above 100 GHz. In fact, the dual reflector antenna is the first electronically scanned dual reflector antenna at frequencies above 60 GHz (the operation frequency is 100 GHz) with a gain greater than 25 dBi, being in turn the first dual-reflector antenna with a real reconfigurable sub-reflectarray. Finally, some improvements that should be still investigated to make these antennas commercially competitive are proposed.

Twenty-year advanced DInSAR analysis of severe land subsidence: The Alto Guadalentín Basin (Spain) case study

A twenty-year period of severe land subsidence evolution in the Alto Guadalentín Basin (southeast Spain) is monitored using multi-sensor SAR images, processed by advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) techniques. The SAR images used in this study consist of four datasets acquired by ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, ALOS and COSMO-SkyMed satellites between 1992 and 2012. The integration of ground surface displacement maps retrieved for different time periods allows us to quantify up to 2.50 m of cumulated displacements that occurred between 1992 and 2012 in the Alto Guadalentín Basin. DInSAR results were locally compared with global positioning system (GPS) data available for two continuous stations located in the study area, demonstrating the high consistency of local vertical motion measurements between the two different surveying techniques. An average absolute error of 4.6 ± 4 mm for the ALOS data and of 4.8 ± 3.5 mm for the COSMO-SkyMed data confirmed the reliability of the analysis. The spatial analysis of DInSAR ground surface displacement reveals a direct correlation with the thickness of the compressible alluvial deposits. Detected ground subsidence in the past 20 years is most likely a consequence of a 100–200 m groundwater level drop that has persisted since the 1970s due to the overexploitation of the Alto Guadalentín aquifer system. The negative gradient of the pore pressure is responsible for the extremely slow consolidation of a very thick (> 100 m) layer of fine-grained silt and clay layers with low vertical hydraulic permeability (approximately 50 mm/h) wherein the maximum settlement has still not been reached.

Spatial distribution and morphometric analysis of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies : Case study from the sporadic permafrost region, Tavvavuoma, Sweden

Projected air and ground temperatures are expected to be higher in Arctic and sub-Arcticlatitudes and with temperatures already close to the limit where permafrost can exist,resistance against degradation is low. With thawing permafrost, the landscape is modifiedwith depression in which thermokarst lakes emerge. In permafrost soils a considerableamount of soil organic carbon is stored, with the potential of altering climate even furtherif expansion and formation of new thermokarst lakes emerge, as decay releasesgreenhouse gases (C02 and CH4) to the atmosphere. Analyzing the spatial distribution andmorphometry over time of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies, is of importance inaccurately predict carbon budget and feedback mechanisms, as well as to assess futurelandscape layout and these features interaction. Different types of high-spatial resolutionaerial and satellite imageries from 1963, 1975, 2003, 2010 and 2015, were used in bothpre- and post-classification change detection analyses. Using object oriented segmentationin eCognition combined with manual adjustments, resulted in digitalized water bodies>28m2 from which direction of change and morphometric values were extracted. Thequantity of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies was in 1963 n=92, with succeedingyears as a trend decreased in numbers, until 2010-2015 when eleven water bodies wereadded in 2015 (n=74 to n=85). In 1963-2003, area of these water bodies decreased with50 651m2 (189 446-138 795m2) and continued to decrease in 2003-2015 ending at 129337m2. Limnicity decreased from 19.9% in 1963 to 14.6% in 2003 (-5.3%). In 2010 and2015 13.7-13.6%. The late increase in water bodies differs from an earlier hypothesis thatsporadic permafrost regions experience decrease in both area and quantity of thermokarstlakes and water bodies. During 1963-2015, land gain has been in dominance of the ratiobetween the two competing processes of expansion and drainage. In 1963-1975, 55/45%,followed by 90/10% in 1975-2003. After major drainage events, land loss increased to62/38% in 2010-2015. Drainage and infilling rates, calculated for 15 shorelines werevaried across both landscape and parts of shorelines, with in average 0.17/0.15/0.14m/yr.Except for 1963-1975 when rate of change in average was in opposite direction (-0.09m/yr.), likely due to evident expansion of a large thermokarst lake. Using a squaregrid, distribution of water bodies was determined, with an indistinct cluster located in NEand central parts. Especially for water bodies <250m2, which is the dominant area classthroughout 1963-2015 ranging from n=39-51. With a heterogeneous composition of bothsmall and large thermokarst lakes, and with both expansion and drainage altering thelandscape in Tavvavuoma, both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms are inplay - given that sporadic permafrost still exist.

Simulation of glassy state relaxations in polymers: A static analysis of methyl group and methoxy group rotation in poly(vinyl methyl ether)

We show that the simple quasi-static technique, also called the adiabatic mapping technique, can be used to determine the energetics of rotation of methyl and methoxy groups in amorphous poly(vinyl methyl ether) even though the latter process is too slow to be amenable to direct molecular dynamics simulation. For the methyl group rotation, we find that the mean and standard deviation of the simulated rotational barrier heights agree well with experimental data from quasi-elastic neutron scattering. In the case of the methoxy groups we find that just 4% of the groups contribute more than 90% of the observed dielectric relaxation strength. The groups which make the most contribution are those which, by virtue of their particular conformation and local environment, have two alternative positions of similar energy.

Feature analysis of spammers in social networks with active honeypots:a case study of Chinese microblogging networks

In this poster we presented our preliminary work on the study of spammer detection and analysis with 50 active honeypot profiles implemented on Weibo.com and QQ.com microblogging networks. We picked out spammers from legitimate users by manually checking every captured user's microblogs content. We built a spammer dataset for each social network community using these spammer accounts and a legitimate user dataset as well. We analyzed several features of the two user classes and made a comparison on these features, which were found to be useful to distinguish spammers from legitimate users. The followings are several initial observations from our analysis on the features of spammers captured on Weibo.com and QQ.com. ¦The following/follower ratio of spammers is usually higher than legitimate users. They tend to follow a large amount of users in order to gain popularity but always have relatively few followers. ¦There exists a big gap between the average numbers of microblogs posted per day from these two classes. On Weibo.com, spammers post quite a lot microblogs every day, which is much more than legitimate users do; while on QQ.com spammers post far less microblogs than legitimate users. This is mainly due to the different strategies taken by spammers on these two platforms. ¦More spammers choose a cautious spam posting pattern. They mix spam microblogs with ordinary ones so that they can avoid the anti-spam mechanisms taken by the service providers. ¦Aggressive spammers are more likely to be detected so they tend to have a shorter life while cautious spammers can live much longer and have a deeper influence on the network. The latter kind of spammers may become the trend of social network spammer. © 2012 IEEE.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

A Spatial Analysis to Permanent Income as Deterrent of Homicides: the case of Medellin City

This paper studies the relationship between permanent income and homicides, estimating an income-crime elasticity. We assume that this elasticity varies across geographical areas. We estimate different specifications of Spatial Panel Models using information of urban areas in Medellin (Colombia), areas known as communes. Spatial Models consider the importance of location and the type of neighbors of each commune. We simulate an intervention over permanent income in order to estimate the income elasticity for each commune and the average elasticity of income-crime on the city. We provide evidence about spatial dependence between the homicides per commune and their neighbors, and about a relationship between homicides and neighbor’s income. In our case of study, the average estimated impact of 1% increase in permanent income in a specific commune produces a decrease in the homicide rate on average in 0.39%. Finally, permanent income plays a crime deterrent role, but also this effect of income on crime varies across the city, showing that some areas are strategically located to this kind of intervention.

Automated Software Debugging Using Hybrid Static/Dynamic Analysis

With the increasing complexity of today's software, the software development process is becoming highly time and resource consuming. The increasing number of software configurations, input parameters, usage scenarios, supporting platforms, external dependencies, and versions plays an important role in expanding the costs of maintaining and repairing unforeseeable software faults. To repair software faults, developers spend considerable time in identifying the scenarios leading to those faults and root-causing the problems. While software debugging remains largely manual, it is not the case with software testing and verification. The goal of this research is to improve the software development process in general, and software debugging process in particular, by devising techniques and methods for automated software debugging, which leverage the advances in automatic test case generation and replay. In this research, novel algorithms are devised to discover faulty execution paths in programs by utilizing already existing software test cases, which can be either automatically or manually generated. The execution traces, or alternatively, the sequence covers of the failing test cases are extracted. Afterwards, commonalities between these test case sequence covers are extracted, processed, analyzed, and then presented to the developers in the form of subsequences that may be causing the fault. The hypothesis is that code sequences that are shared between a number of faulty test cases for the same reason resemble the faulty execution path, and hence, the search space for the faulty execution path can be narrowed down by using a large number of test cases. To achieve this goal, an efficient algorithm is implemented for finding common subsequences among a set of code sequence covers. Optimization techniques are devised to generate shorter and more logical sequence covers, and to select subsequences with high likelihood of containing the root cause among the set of all possible common subsequences. A hybrid static/dynamic analysis approach is designed to trace back the common subsequences from the end to the root cause. A debugging tool is created to enable developers to use the approach, and integrate it with an existing Integrated Development Environment. The tool is also integrated with the environment's program editors so that developers can benefit from both the tool suggestions, and their source code counterparts. Finally, a comparison between the developed approach and the state-of-the-art techniques shows that developers need only to inspect a small number of lines in order to find the root cause of the fault. Furthermore, experimental evaluation shows that the algorithm optimizations lead to better results in terms of both the algorithm running time and the output subsequence length.