The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Intrinsic colony conditions affect the provisioning and oviposition process in the stingless bee Melipona scutellaris

The cell provisioning and oviposition process (POP) is a unique characteristic of stingless bees (Meliponini), in which coordinated interactions between workers and queen regulate the filling of brood cells with larval resources and subsequent egg laying. Environmental conditions seem to regulate reproduction in stingless bees; however, little is known about how the amount of food affects quantitative sequences of the process. We examined intrinsic variables by comparing three colonies in distinct conditions (strong, intermediate and weak state). We predicted that some of these variables are correlated with temporal events of POP in Melipona scutellaris colonies. The results demonstrated that the strong colony had shorter periods of POP.

Photolysis of ferric ions in the presence of sulfate or chloride ions: implications for the photo-Fenton process

The photo-Fenton process (Fe(2+)/Fe(3+), H(2)O(2), UV light) is one of the most efficient and advanced oxidation processes for the mineralization of the organic pollutants of industrial effluents and wastewater. The overall rate of the photo-Fenton process is controlled by the rate of the photolytic step that converts Fe(3+) back to Fe(2+). In this paper, the effect of sulfate or chloride ions on the net yield of Fe(2+) during the photolysis of Fe(3+) has been investigated in aqueous solution at pH 3.0 and 1.0 in the absence of hydrogen peroxide. A kinetic model based on the principal reactions that occur in the system fits the data for formation of Fe(2+) satisfactorily. Both experimental data and model prediction show that the availability of Fe(2+) produced by photolysis of Fe(3+) is inhibited much more in the presence of sulfate ion than in the presence of chloride ion as a function of the irradiation time at pH 3.0.

Some questions about the Metropolitan Areas in Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago regions

Among the numerous problems that are common to the Latin-American metropolises, such as the deep socio-spatial segregation, the impressive territorial fragmentation and the real estate valorisation that overvalues some territories, whilst it depreciates others, we have chosen to focus on the management of the metropolitan regions. That question clearly indicates that due to the great current changes of the economical restructuring - a process that strengthened the capitalist logic of social development - the traditional form of thinking urban planning has found its limits. Consequently, this issue of metropolitan management shows the need to look for new ways of metropolitan administration that can answer to the The main metropolitan regions of South America: Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago form our references to characterize the recent changes from a territorial point of view on the one hand; and relative to the new determinations of the metropolis on the other hand. This leads us to discuss the challenges that metropolitan management face in a scenario of governability fragmentation.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Effects of Laser on the Synovial Fluid in the Inflammatory Process of the Knee Joint of the Rabbit

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of low-level laser (LLL) energy on the clinical signs of inflammation and the cellular composition of synovial fluid (SF) in the inflamed knee of the rabbit. Background Data: There are few findings related to the effects of LLL on SF in inflammatory processes and there is little knowledge about the optimal parameters for reducing joint inflammation. Materials and Methods: Inflammation in the right knee of 36 rabbits was induced by intracapsular injection (0.2 mL) of Terebinthina commun (Tc). The animals were randomly assigned to three groups: acute experimental group (AEG), chronic experimental group (CEG), and control group (CG), which only received Tc. Each group was divided in two subgroups of six animals each. The AEG and CEG groups began to receive laser treatment 2 and 5 d after the induction of inflammation, respectively. Laser irradiation at a wavelength of 830 nm, power output of 77 mW, and power density of 27.5 W/cm(2) was applied daily for 7 d for either 0.12 sec or 0.32 sec, resulting in doses of 3.4 J/cm(2) and 8 J/cm(2), respectively. Body mass, joint perimeter, joint temperature, and the morphology of the SF were analyzed. Results: There was no statistically significant differences between groups in the body mass, joint perimeter, and SF morphology. Conclusion: Laser irradiation with the selected parameters produced only a few subtle differences in the inflammatory signs and the SF. The lack of effects may have been due to the short irradiation time.

Evaluation of Laser Phototherapy in the Inflammatory Process of the Rat's TMJ Induced by Carrageenan

Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate, by light microscopy, the effects of laser phototherapy (LPT) at 780nm or a combination of 660 and 790 nm, on the inflammatory process of the rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ) induced by carrageen. Background: Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are frequent in the population and generally present an inflammatory component. Previous studies have evidenced positive effects of laser phototherapy on TMDs. However, its mechanism of action on the inflammation of the TMJ is not known yet. Materials and Methods: Eighty-five Wistar rats were divided into 9 groups: G1, Saline; G2, Saline + LPT IR; G3, Saline + LPT IR + R; G4, Carrageenan; G5, Carrageenan + LPT IR; G6, Carrageenan + LPT IR + R; G7, previous LPT + Carrageenan; G8, previous LPT + carrageenan + LPT IR; and G9, previous LPT + carrageenan + LPT IR + R, and then subdivided in subgroups of 3 and 7 days. After animal death, specimens were taken, routinely cut and stained with HE, Sirius Red, and Toluidine Blue. Descriptive analysis of components of the TMJ was done. The synovial cell layers were counted. Results: Injection of saline did not produced inflammatory reaction and the irradiated groups did not present differences compared to non-irradiated ones. After carrageenan injection, intense inflammatory infiltration and synovial cell layers proliferation were observed. The infrared irradiated group presented less inflammation and less synovial cell layers number compared to other groups. Previous laser irradiation did not improve the results. Conclusion: It was concluded that the LPT presented positive effects on inflammatory infiltration reduction and accelerated the inflammation process, mainly with IR laser irradiation. The number of synovial cell layers was reduced on irradiated group.

A Paradigm Shift in Predoctoral Dental Curricula in Brazil: Evaluating the Process of Change

In 2002, the Brazilian Ministry of Education approved the official curricular guidelines for undergraduate courses in Brazil to be adopted by the nation's 188 dental schools. In 2005-06, the Brazilian Dental Education Association (BDEA) promoted workshops in forty-eight of the schools to verify the degree of transformation of the curriculum based on these guidelines. Among the areas analyzed were course philosophy (variables were v1: knowledge production based on the needs of the Brazilian Public Health System [BPHS]; v2: health determinants; and v3: postgraduate studies and permanent education); pedagogical skills (v4: curricular structure; v5: changes in pedagogic and didactic skills; and v6: course program orientation); and dental practice scenarios (v7: diversity of the scenarios for training/learning; v8: academic health care centers opened to the BPHS; and v9: participation of students in health care delivery for the population). The subjects consisted of faculty members (n=711), students (n=228), and employees (n=14). The results showed an incipient degree of curriculum transformation. The degree of innovation was statistically different depending on the type of university (public or private) for variables I, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Private schools reported a higher level of innovation than public institutions. Resistance to transforming the dental curriculum according to the official guidelines may be linked to an ideological conception that supports the private practice model, continues to have faculty members direct all classroom activities, and prevents students from developing an understanding of professional practice as targeted towards the oral health needs of all segments of society.

RNA interference-mediated knockdown of CD49e (alpha 5 integrin chain) in human thymic epithelial cells modulates the expression of multiple genes and decreases thymocyte adhesion

Background: The thymus is a central lymphoid organ, in which bone marrow-derived T cell precursors undergo a complex process of maturation. Developing thymocytes interact with thymic microenvironment in a defined spatial order. A component of thymic microenvironment, the thymic epithelial cells, is crucial for the maturation of T-lymphocytes through cell-cell contact, cell matrix interactions and secretory of cytokines/chemokines. There is evidence that extracellular matrix molecules play a fundamental role in guiding differentiating thymocytes in both cortical and medullary regions of the thymic lobules. The interaction between the integrin alpha 5 beta 1 (CD49e/CD29; VLA-5) and fibronectin is relevant for thymocyte adhesion and migration within the thymic tissue. Our previous results have shown that adhesion of thymocytes to cultured TEC line is enhanced in the presence of fibronectin, and can be blocked with anti-VLA-5 antibody. Results: Herein, we studied the role of CD49e expressed by the human thymic epithelium. For this purpose we knocked down the CD49e by means of RNA interference. This procedure resulted in the modulation of more than 100 genes, some of them coding for other proteins also involved in adhesion of thymocytes; others related to signaling pathways triggered after integrin activation, or even involved in the control of F-actin stress fiber formation. Functionally, we demonstrated that disruption of VLA-5 in human TEC by CD49e-siRNA-induced gene knockdown decreased the ability of TEC to promote thymocyte adhesion. Such a decrease comprised all CD4/CD8-defined thymocyte subsets. Conclusion: Conceptually, our findings unravel the complexity of gene regulation, as regards key genes involved in the heterocellular cell adhesion between developing thymocytes and the major component of the thymic microenvironment, an interaction that is a mandatory event for proper intrathymic T cell differentiation.

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Galaxy distribution and evolution around a sample of 2dF groups

Context. We study galaxy evolution and spatial patterns in the surroundings of a sample of 2dF groups. Aims. Our aim is to find evidence of galaxy evolution and clustering out to 10 times the virial radius of the groups and so redefine their properties according to the spatial patterns in the fields and relate them to galaxy evolution. Methods. Group members and interlopers were redefined after the identification of gaps in the redshift distribution. We then used exploratory spatial statistics based on the the second moment of the Ripley function to probe the anisotropy in the galaxy distribution around the groups. Results. We found an important anticorrelation between anisotropy around groups and the fraction of early-type galaxies in these fields. Our results illustrate how the dynamical state of galaxy groups can be ascertained by the systematic study of their neighborhoods. This is an important achievement, since the correct estimate of the extent to which galaxies are affected by the group environment and follow large-scale filamentary structure is relevant to understanding the process of galaxy clustering and evolution in the Universe.

The close circumstellar environment of Betelgeuse II. Diffraction-limited spectro-imaging from 7.76 to 19.50 mu m with VLT/VISIR

Context. Mass-loss occurring in red supergiants (RSGs) is a major contributor to the enrichment of the interstellar medium in dust and molecules. The physical mechanism of this mass loss is however relatively poorly known. Betelgeuse is the nearest RSG, and as such a prime object for high angular resolution observations of its surface (by interferometry) and close circumstellar environment. Aims. The goal of our program is to understand how the material expelled from Betelgeuse is transported from its surface to the interstellar medium, and how it evolves chemically in this process. Methods. We obtained diffraction-limited images of Betelgeuse and a calibrator (Aldebaran) in six filters in the N band (7.76 to 12.81 mu m) and two filters in the Q band (17.65 and 19.50 mu m), using the VLT/VISIR instrument. Results. Our images show a bright, extended and complex circumstellar envelope at all wavelengths. It is particularly prominent longwards of approximate to 9-10 mu m, pointing at the presence of O-rich dust, such as silicates or alumina. A partial circular shell is observed between 0.5 and 1.0 '' from the star, and could correspond to the inner radius of the dust envelope. Several knots and filamentary structures are identified in the nebula. One of the knots, located at a distance of 0.9 '' west of the star, is particularly bright and compact. Conclusions. The circumstellar envelope around Betelgeuse extends at least up to several tens of stellar radii. Its relatively high degree of clumpiness indicates an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the material lost by the star. Its extension corresponds to an important intermediate scale, where most of the dust is probably formed, between the hot and compact gaseous envelope observed previously in the near infrared and the interstellar medium.