Delaware Reservoirs’ Drought Risk Assessment: A Paleo View

The Delaware River provides half of New York City's drinking water, is a habitat for wild trout, American shad and the federally endangered dwarf wedge mussel. It has suffered four 100‐year floods in the last seven years. A drought during the 1960s stands as a warning of the potential vulnerability of the New York City area to severe water shortages if a similar drought were to recur. The water releases from three New York City dams on the Delaware River's headwaters impact not only the reliability of the city’s water supply, but also the potential impact of floods, and the quality of the aquatic habitat in the upper river. The goal of this work is to influence the Delaware River water release policies (FFMP/OST) to further benefit river habitat and fisheries without increasing New York City's drought risk, or the flood risk to down basin residents. The Delaware water release policies are constrained by the dictates of two US Supreme Court Decrees (1931 and 1954) and the need for unanimity among four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware ‐‐ and New York City. Coordination of their activities and the operation under the existing decrees is provided by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). Questions such as the probability of the system approaching drought state based on the current FFMP plan and the severity of the 1960s drought are addressed using long record paleo‐reconstructions of flows. For this study, we developed reconstructed total annual flows (water year) for 3 reservoir inflows using regional tree rings going back upto 1754 (a total of 246 years). The reconstructed flows are used with a simple reservoir model to quantify droughts. We observe that the 1960s drought is by far the worst drought based on 246 years of simulations (since 1754).

Graphical models and point set matching

Point pattern matching in Euclidean Spaces is one of the fundamental problems in Pattern Recognition, having applications ranging from Computer Vision to Computational Chemistry. Whenever two complex patterns are encoded by two sets of points identifying their key features, their comparison can be seen as a point pattern matching problem. This work proposes a single approach to both exact and inexact point set matching in Euclidean Spaces of arbitrary dimension. In the case of exact matching, it is assured to find an optimal solution. For inexact matching (when noise is involved), experimental results confirm the validity of the approach. We start by regarding point pattern matching as a weighted graph matching problem. We then formulate the weighted graph matching problem as one of Bayesian inference in a probabilistic graphical model. By exploiting the existence of fundamental constraints in patterns embedded in Euclidean Spaces, we prove that for exact point set matching a simple graphical model is equivalent to the full model. It is possible to show that exact probabilistic inference in this simple model has polynomial time complexity with respect to the number of elements in the patterns to be matched. This gives rise to a technique that for exact matching provably finds a global optimum in polynomial time for any dimensionality of the underlying Euclidean Space. Computational experiments comparing this technique with well-known probabilistic relaxation labeling show significant performance improvement for inexact matching. The proposed approach is significantly more robust under augmentation of the sizes of the involved patterns. In the absence of noise, the results are always perfect.

Gestão estratégica de riscos de um ativo de produção de petróleo: uma abordagem quantitativa

O objetivo dessa dissertação é estabelecer um modelo quantitativo de gestão de riscos estratégicos de um ativo de produção de petróleo, notadamente o valor em risco do seu fluxo de caixa e de sua rentabilidade. Para tanto, foi utilizado um modelo de fluxo de caixa onde a receita operacional foi definida como variável estocástica. A receita operacional foi estimada a partir de uma função de perdas que descreve o volume de produção de petróleo, e de uma trajetória de preços definida por um modelo geométrico browniano sem reversão a média e com volatilidade descrita por um processo GARCH. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que o modelo proposto é capaz de fornecer informações importantes para a gestão de riscos de ativos de produção de petróleo ao passo que permite a quantificação de diferentes fatores de risco que afetam a rentabilidade das operações. Por fim, o modelo aqui proposto pode ser estendido para a avaliação do risco financeiro e operacional de um conjunto de ativos de petróleo, considerando sua estrutura de dependência e a existência de restrições de recursos financeiros, físicos e humanos.

Caracterização dos retornos e das volatilidades de ativos financeiros do mercado Brasileiro : uma abordagem baseada na volatilidade realizada

The goal of this paper is twofold. First, using five of the most actively traded stocks in the Brazilian financial market, this paper shows that the normality assumption commonly used in the risk management area to describe the distributions of returns standardized by volatilities is not compatible with volatilities estimated by EWMA or GARCH models. In sharp contrast, when the information contained in high frequency data is used to construct the realized volatilies measures, we attain the normality of the standardized returns, giving promise of improvements in Value at Risk statistics. We also describe the distributions of volatilities of the Brazilian stocks, showing that the distributions of volatilities are nearly lognormal. Second, we estimate a simple linear model to the log of realized volatilities that differs from the ones in other studies. The main difference is that we do not find evidence of long memory. The estimated model is compared with commonly used alternatives in an out-of-sample experiment.

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Creditor's protection and bank loans: lack of competition hamprers bankruptcy reform's effects

This dissertation investigates how credit institutions’ market power limits the effects of creditor protection rules on the interest rate and the spread of bank loans. We use the Brazilian Bankruptcy Reform of June/2005 (BBR) as a legal event affecting the institutional environment of the Brazilian credit market. The law augments creditor protection and aims to improve the access of firms to the credit market and to reduce the cost of borrowing. Either access to credit or the credit cost are also determined by bank industry competition and the market power of suppliers of credit. We derive a simple economic model to study the effect of market power interacting with cost of lending. Using an accounting and operations dataset from July/2004 to December/2007 provided by the Brazilian Central Bank, we estimate that the lack of competition in the bank lending industry hinders the potential reducing effect of the BBR on the interest rate of corporate loans by approximately 30% and on the spread by approximately 23%. We also find no statistical evidence that the BBR affected the concentration level of the Brazilian credit market. We present a brief report on bankruptcy reforms around the world, the changes in the Brazilian legislation and on some recent related articles in our introductory chapter. The second chapter presents the economic model and the testable hypothesis on how the lack of competition in the lending market limits the effects of improved creditor protection. In this chapter, we introduce our empirical strategy using a differences-in-differences model and we estimate the limiting effect of market power on the BBR’s potential to reduce interest rates and on the spread of bank loans. We use the BBR as an exogenous event that affects collateralized corporate loans (treatment group) but that does not affect clean consumer loans (control group) to identify these effects, using different concentration measures. In Chapter 3, we propose a two-stage empirical strategy to handle the H–Statistics proposed by Panzar and Rosse as a measure of market competition. We estimate the limiting effects of the lack of competition in replacing the concentration statistics by the H–Statistics. Chapter 4 presents a structural break test of the concentration index and checks if the BBR affects the dynamic evolution of the concentration index.

Some notes about the determination of current account equilibrium real exchange rate and the relation between real exchange rate and productive specialization

The objective of these notes is to present a simple mathematical model of the determination of current account real exchange rate as defined by Bresser-Pereira (2010); i.e. the real exchange rate that guarantees the inter temporal equilibrium of balance of payments and to show the relation between Real Exchange rate and Productive Specialization at theoretical and empirical level.

The spenders-hoarders theory of capital accumulations, wealth distribution and fiscal policy

This paper proposes a simple OLG model which is consistent with the essential facts about consumer behavior, capital accumulation and wealth distribution, and yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy. By considering a society in which individuais are distinguished according to two characteristics, altruism and wealth preference, we show that those who in the long run hold the bulk of private capital are not so rnuch motivated by dynastic altruism as by preference for wealth. Two types of social segmentation can result with different wcalth distribution. To a large extcnt our results seem to fit reality better than those obtained with standard optimal growth models in which dynastic altruism ( or r ate o f impatience) is the only source of heterogeneity: overaccumulation can appear, public debt and unfunded pensions are not neutra!, estate taxation can improve the welfare of the top wealthy.

Interference effects in nonplanar wires with a two-dimensional electron gas

We have studied the universal conductance fluctuations (UCF) due to quantum interface in a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) grown on the substrates with pre-patterned, sub-micron wires. The dependence of UCF on the angle between the direction of the magnetic field and the substrate has been investigated. We found, that magnetoresistance traces for different angles are completely uncorrelated. A non-planar character of electron motion is responsible for these angular conductance fluctuations. We compared the experimental results with a simple geometrical model.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A influência do fator de vibração térmica na densidade eletrônica de cristais bidimensionais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diagnosis of inflammatory lesions by high-wavenumber FT-Raman spectroscopy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

ZERO SOUND-VELOCITY IN PI, RHO-MESON GASES

Sharp transitions are perhaps absent in QCD, so that one looks for physical quantities which may reflect the phase change. One such quantity is the sound velocity which was shown in lattice theory to become zero at the transition point for pure glue. We show that even in a simple bag model the sound velocity goes to zero at temperature T = T(v) not-equal 0 and that the numerical value of this T(v) depends on the nature of the meson. The average thermal energy of mesons goes linearly with T near T(v), with much smaller slope for the pion. The T(v) - s can be connected with the Boltzmann temperatures obtained from transverse momentum spectrum of these mesons in heavy-ion collision at mid-rapidity. It would be interesting to check the presence of different T(v) - s in present day finite T lattice theory.

Non-local interactions and the dynamics of dispersal in immature insects

A simple mathematical model is developed to explain the appearance of oscillations in the dispersal of larvae from the food source in experimental populations of certain species of blowflies. The life history of the immature stage in these flies, and in a number of other insects, is a system with two populations, one of larvae dispersing on the soil and the other of larvae that burrow in the soil to pupate. The observed oscillations in the horizontal distribution of buried pupae at the end of the dispersal process are hypothesized to be a consequence of larval crowding at a given point in the pupation substrate. It is assumed that dispersing larvae are capable of perceiving variations in density of larvae buried at a given point in the substrate of pupation, and that pupal density may influence pupation of dispersing larvae. The assumed interaction between dispersing larvae and the larvae that are burrowing to pupate is modeled using the concept of non-local effects. Numerical solutions of integro-partial differential equations developed to model density-dependent immature dispersal demonstrate that variation in the parameter that governs the non-local interaction between dispersing and buried larvae induces oscillations in the final horizontal distribution of pupae. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

Effect of iron on inhibition of acid demineralisation of bovine dental enamel in vitro

Objectives: Iron ions (Fe2+) have been shown to be cariostatic in many studies particularly by their ability to reduce bacterial metabolism. Nevertheless, the role of iron ions on dissolution of enamel is unexplored. The aim of the present study was therefore to investigate the protective effect of increasing concentrations (0-120 mmol/L) of Fe2+ on the dissolution of enamel.Design: Enamel powder was subjected to acetic acid made with increasing concentrations with respect to FeSO4 center dot 7H(2)O. In order to determine the amount of enamel dissolved, the phosphate released in the medium was analysed spectrophotometrically using the Fiske-Subarrow method. Data were tested using Kruskall-Wall and Dunn's tests (p < 0.05). The degree of protection was found to approach maximum at about 15 mmol/L Fe2+. Higher concentrations of Fe2+ did not have an extra effect on inhibition of dissolution of enamel powder. In the next step, the protective effect of 15 mmol/L Fe2+ against mineral dissolution of the bovine enamel was evaluated using a simple abiotic model system. Enamel blocks were exposed to a sequence of seven plastic vials, each containing 1 mL of 10 mmol/L acetic acid. The acid in vial 4 was made 15 mmol/L with respect to FeSO4 center dot 7H(2)O. The mineral dissolved during each challenge was thus determined by phosphate released as described above. Data were tested using two-way ANOVA (p < 0.05). Results: Lower demineralisation (around 45%) was found in vial 4 (with Fe) that continued stable until vial 7.Conclusions: Thus, our data suggest that Fe2+, can be effective on inhibition of dissolution of enamel and that this effect may be durable. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.