Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Creating flexible mappings between building information models and cost information

During the early design stages of construction projects, accurate and timely cost feedback is critical to design decision making. This is particularly challenging for cost estimators, as they must quickly and accurately estimate the cost of the building when the design is still incomplete and evolving. State-of-the-art software tools typically use a rule-based approach to generate detailed quantities from the design details present in a building model and relate them to the cost items in a cost estimating database. In this paper, we propose a generic approach for creating and maintaining a cost estimate using flexible mappings between a building model and a cost estimate. The approach uses queries on the building design that are used to populate views, and each view is then associated with one or more cost items. The benefit of this approach is that the flexibility of modern query languages allows the estimator to encode a broad variety of relationships between the design and estimate. It also avoids the use of a common standard to which both designers and estimators must conform, allowing the estimator added flexibility and functionality to their work.

Anti-proliferative and cytotoxic activity of pentadactylin isolated from Leptodactylus labyrinthicus on melanoma cells

Nowadays, the emergence of resistance to the current available chemotherapeutic drugs by cancer cells makes the development of new agents imperative. The skin secretion of amphibians is a natural rich source of antimicrobial peptides (AMP), and researchers have shown that some of these wide spectrum molecules are also toxic to cancer cells. The aim of this study was to verify a putative anticancer activity of the AMP pentadactylin isolated for the first time from the skin secretion of the frog Leptodactylus labyrinthicus and also to study its cytotoxic mechanism to the murine melanoma cell line B16F10. The results have shown that pentadactylin reduces the cell viability of B16F10 cells in a dose-dependent manner. It was also cytotoxic to normal human fibroblast cells; nevertheless, pentadactylin was more potent in the first case. The studies of action mechanism revealed that pentadactylin causes cell morphology alterations (e.g., round shape and shrinkage morphology), membrane disruption, DNA fragmentation, cell cycle arrest at the S phase, and alteration of mitochondrial membrane potential, suggesting that B16F10 cells die by apoptosis. The exact mechanism that causes reduction of cell viability and cytotoxicity after treatment with pentadactylin is still unknown. In conclusion, as cancer cells become resilient to death, it is worthwhile the discovery of new drugs such as pentadactylin that induces apoptosis.

Compressed sensing using hidden Markov models with application to vision based aircraft tracking

This paper investigates compressed sensing using hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hence provides an extension of recent single frame, bounded error sparse decoding problems into a class of sparse estimation problems containing both temporal evolution and stochastic aspects. This paper presents two optimal estimators for compressed HMMs. The impact of measurement compression on HMM filtering performance is experimentally examined in the context of an important image based aircraft target tracking application. Surprisingly, tracking of dim small-sized targets (as small as 5-10 pixels, with local detectability/SNR as low as − 1.05 dB) was only mildly impacted by compressed sensing down to 15% of original image size.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes

While the use of environmental factors in the analysis and prediction of failures of buried reticulation pipes in cold environments has been the focus of extensive work, the same cannot be said for failures occurring on pipes in other (non-freezing) environments. A novel analysis of pipe failures in such an environment is the subject of this paper. An exploratory statistical analysis was undertaken, identifying a peak in failure rates during mid to late summer. This peak was found to correspond to a peak in the rate of circumferential failures, whilst the rate of longitudinal failures remained constant. Investigation into the effect of climate on failure rates revealed that the peak in failure rates occurs due to differential soil movement as the result of shrinkage in expansive soils.

Application of meshfree methods to numerically simulate microscale deformations of different plant food materials during drying

Plant food materials have a very high demand in the consumer market and therefore, improved food products and efficient processing techniques are concurrently being researched in food engineering. In this context, numerical modelling and simulation techniques have a very high potential to reveal fundamentals of the underlying mechanisms involved. However, numerical modelling of plant food materials during drying becomes quite challenging, mainly due to the complexity of the multiphase microstructure of the material, which undergoes excessive deformations during drying. In this regard, conventional grid-based modelling techniques have limited applicability due to their inflexible grid-based fundamental limitations. As a result, meshfree methods have recently been developed which offer a more adaptable approach to problem domains of this nature, due to their fundamental grid-free advantages. In this work, a recently developed meshfree based two-dimensional plant tissue model is used for a comparative study of microscale morphological changes of several food materials during drying. The model involves Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and Discrete Element Method (DEM) to represent fluid and solid phases of the cellular structure. Simulation are conducted on apple, potato, carrot and grape tissues and the results are qualitatively and quantitatively compared and related with experimental findings obtained from the literature. The study revealed that cellular deformations are highly sensitive to cell dimensions, cell wall physical and mechanical properties, middle lamella properties and turgor pressure. In particular, the meshfree model is well capable of simulating critically dried tissues at lower moisture content and turgor pressure, which lead to cell wall wrinkling. The findings further highlighted the potential applicability of the meshfree approach to model large deformations of the plant tissue microstructure during drying, providing a distinct advantage over the state of the art grid-based approaches.

Numerical simulation of micro-scale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying - a meshfree approach

This thesis developed a high preforming alternative numerical technique to investigate microscale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying. The technique is based on a novel meshfree method, and is more capable of modeling large deformations of multiphase problem domains, when compared with conventional grid-based numerical modeling techniques. The developed cellular model can effectively replicate dried tissue morphological changes such as shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling, as influenced by moisture reduction and turgor loss.

Effective diffusivity and evaporative cooling in convective drying of food material

This article presents mathematical models to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of food materials using three different effective diffusivities: shrinkage dependent, temperature dependent and average of those two. Engineering simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics was utilized to simulate the model in 2D and 3D. The simulation results were compared with experimental data. It is found that the temperature dependent effective diffusivity model predicts the moisture content more accurately at the initial stage of the drying, whereas, the shrinkage dependent effective diffusivity model is better for the final stage of the drying. The model with shrinkage dependent effective diffusivity shows evaporative cooling phenomena at the initial stage of drying. This phenomenon was investigated and explained. Three dimensional temperature and moisture profiles show that even when the surface is dry, inside of the sample may still contain large amount of moisture. Therefore, drying process should be carefully dealt with otherwise microbial spoilage may start from the centre of the ‘dried’ food. A parametric investigation has been conducted after the validation of the model.

Shared autonomy for close-quarters navigation and control of a VTOL platform

This thesis presents an approach for a vertical infrastructure inspection using a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) unmanned aerial vehicle and shared autonomy. Inspecting vertical structure such as light and power distribution poles is a difficult task. There are challenges involved with developing such an inspection system, such as flying in close proximity to a target while maintaining a fixed stand-off distance from it. The contributions of this thesis fall into three main areas. Firstly, an approach to vehicle dynamic modeling is evaluated in simulation and experiments. Secondly, EKF-based state estimators are demonstrated, as well as estimator-free approaches such as image based visual servoing (IBVS) validated with motion capture ground truth data. Thirdly, an integrated pole inspection system comprising a VTOL platform with human-in-the-loop control, (shared autonomy) is demonstrated. These contributions are comprehensively explained through a series of published papers.

Multiscale features and information extraction of online strain for long-span bridges

The strain data acquired from structural health monitoring (SHM) systems play an important role in the state monitoring and damage identification of bridges. Due to the environmental complexity of civil structures, a better understanding of the actual strain data will help filling the gap between theoretical/laboratorial results and practical application. In the study, the multi-scale features of strain response are first revealed after abundant investigations on the actual data from two typical long-span bridges. Results show that, strain types at the three typical temporal scales of 10^5, 10^2 and 10^0 sec are caused by temperature change, trains and heavy trucks, and have their respective cut-off frequency in the order of 10^-2, 10^-1 and 10^0 Hz. Multi-resolution analysis and wavelet shrinkage are applied for separating and extracting these strain types. During the above process, two methods for determining thresholds are introduced. The excellent ability of wavelet transform on simultaneously time-frequency analysis leads to an effective information extraction. After extraction, the strain data will be compressed at an attractive ratio. This research may contribute to a further understanding of actual strain data of long-span bridges; also, the proposed extracting methodology is applicable on actual SHM systems.

Online estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular randomwalk and rate randomwalk coefficients of inertial measurement unit gyros and accelerometers. In the online method, a state-space model is proposed, and recursive parameter estimators are proposed for quantities previously measured from offline data techniques such as the Allan variance method. The Allan variance method has large offline computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of approximately 100 calculations per data sample.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

Frequency-motivated observer design for the prediction of parametric roll resonance control applications in marine systems

This work deals with estimators for predicting when parametric roll resonance is going to occur in surface vessels. The roll angle of the vessel is modeled as a second-order linear oscillatory system with unknown parameters. Several algorithms are used to estimate the parameters and eigenvalues of the system based on data gathered experimentally on a 1:45 scale model of a tanker. Based on the estimated eigenvalues, the system predicts whether or not parametric roll occurred. A prediction accuracy of 100% is achieved for regular waves, and up to 87.5% for irregular waves.

Adaptive finite element analysis of elliptic problems based on bubble-type local mesh generation

A new mesh adaptivity algorithm that combines a posteriori error estimation with bubble-type local mesh generation (BLMG) strategy for elliptic differential equations is proposed. The size function used in the BLMG is defined on each vertex during the adaptive process based on the obtained error estimator. In order to avoid the excessive coarsening and refining in each iterative step, two factor thresholds are introduced in the size function. The advantages of the BLMG-based adaptive finite element method, compared with other known methods, are given as follows: the refining and coarsening are obtained fluently in the same framework; the local a posteriori error estimation is easy to implement through the adjacency list of the BLMG method; at all levels of refinement, the updated triangles remain very well shaped, even if the mesh size at any particular refinement level varies by several orders of magnitude. Several numerical examples with singularities for the elliptic problems, where the explicit error estimators are used, verify the efficiency of the algorithm. The analysis for the parameters introduced in the size function shows that the algorithm has good flexibility.