Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

KRAS and HRAS mutations confer resistance to MET targeting in preclinical models of MET-expressing tumor cells.

The MET receptor tyrosine kinase is often deregulated in human cancers and several MET inhibitors are evaluated in clinical trials. Similarly to EGFR, MET signals through the RAS-RAF-ERK/MAPK pathway which plays key roles in cell proliferation and survival. Mutations of genes encoding for RAS proteins, particularly in KRAS, are commonly found in various tumors and are associated with constitutive activation of the MAPK pathway. It was shown for EGFR, that KRAS mutations render upstream EGFR inhibition ineffective in EGFR-positive colorectal cancers. Currently, there are no clinical studies evaluating MET inhibition impairment due to RAS mutations. To test the impact of RAS mutations on MET targeting, we generated tumor cells responsive to the MET inhibitor EMD1214063 that express KRAS G12V, G12D, G13D and HRAS G12V variants. We demonstrate that these MAPK-activating RAS mutations differentially interfere with MET-mediated biological effects of MET inhibition. We report increased residual ERK1/2 phosphorylation indicating that the downstream pathway remains active in presence of MET inhibition. Consequently, RAS variants counteracted MET inhibition-induced morphological changes as well as anti-proliferative and anchorage-independent growth effects. The effect of RAS mutants was reversed when MET inhibition was combined with MEK inhibitors AZD6244 and UO126. In an in vivo mouse xenograft model, MET-driven tumors harboring mutated RAS displayed resistance to MET inhibition. Taken together, our results demonstrate for the first time in details the role of KRAS and HRAS mutations in resistance to MET inhibition and suggest targeting both MET and MEK as an effective strategy when both oncogenic drivers are expressed.

Impact of MET targeting on tumor-associated angiogenesis and growth of MET mutations-driven models of liver cancer

Deregulated expression of the MET receptor tyrosine kinase has been reported in up to 50% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, the most abundant form of liver cancers, and is associated with decreased survival. Consequently, MET is considered as a molecular target in this malignancy, whose progression is highly dependent on extensive angiogenesis. Here we studied the impact of MET small molecule inhibitors on angiogenesis-associated parameters and growth of xenograft liver models consisting of cells expressing MET-mutated variants M1268T and Y1248H, which exhibit constitutive kinase activity. We demonstrate that MET mutations expression is associated with significantly increased production of vascular endothelial growth factor, which is blocked by MET targeting only in cells expressing the M1268T inhibitor-sensitive but not in the Y1248H inhibitor-resistant variant. Decrease in vascular endothelial growth factor production is also associated with reduction of tyrosine phopshorylation of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 expressed on primary liver sinusoidal endothelial cells and with inhibition of vessel formation. Furthermore, MET inhibition demonstrated an efficient anti-tumor activity and considerable reduction in microvessel density only against the M1268T-derived intrahepatic tumors. Collectively, our data support the role of targeting MET-associated angiogenesis as a major biological determinant for liver tumor growth control.

Intravenous Immunoglobulin with Enhanced Polyspecificity Improves Survival in Experimental Sepsis and Aseptic Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndromes.

Sepsis is a major cause for death worldwide. Numerous interventional trials with agents neutralizing single pro-inflammatory mediators have failed to improve survival in sepsis and aseptic systemic inflammatory response syndromes. This failure could well be explained by the widespread gene expression dysregulation known as "genomic storm" in these patients. A multifunctional polyspecific therapeutic agent might be needed to thwart the effects of this "storm". Licensed pooled intravenous immunoglobulin preparations seemed to be a promising candidate but they have also failed in their present form to prevent sepsis-related death. We report here the protective effect of a single dose of intravenous immunoglobulin preparations with additionally enhanced polyspecificity in three models of sepsis and aseptic systemic inflammation. The modification of the pooled immunoglobulin G molecules by exposure to ferrous ions resulted in their newly acquired ability to bind some pro-inflammatory molecules, complement components and endogenous "danger" signals. The improved survival in endotoxemia was associated with serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, diminished complement consumption and normalization of the coagulation time. We suggest that intravenous immunoglobulin preparations with additionally enhanced polyspecificity have a clinical potential in sepsis and related systemic inflammatory syndromes.

Socioeconomic disparities in childhood cancer survival in Switzerland.

In this study, we investigated whether childhood cancer survival in Switzerland is influenced by socioeconomic status (SES), and if disparities vary by type of cancer and definition of SES (parental education, living condition, area-based SES). Using Cox proportional hazards models, we analyzed 5-year cumulative mortality in all patients registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry diagnosed 1991-2006 below 16 years. Information on SES was extracted from the Swiss census by probabilistic record linkage. The study included 1602 children (33% with leukemia, 20% with lymphoma, 22% with central nervous system (CNS) tumors); with an overall 5-year survival of 77% (95%CI 75-79%). Higher SES, particularly parents' education, was associated with a lower 5-year cumulative mortality. Results varied by type of cancer with no association for leukemia and particularly strong effects for CNS tumor patients, where mortality hazard ratios for the different SES indicators, comparing the highest with the lowest group, ranged from 0.48 (95%CI: 0.28-0.81) to 0.71 (95%CI: 0.44-1.15). We conclude that even in Switzerland with a high quality health care system and mandatory health insurance, socioeconomic differences in childhood cancer survival persist. Factors causing these survival differences have to be further explored, to facilitate universal access to optimal treatment and finally eliminate social inequalities in childhood cancer survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A vaccine formulation combining rhoptry proteins NcROP40 and NcROP2 improves pup survival in a pregnant mouse model of neosporosis.

Currently there are no effective vaccines for the control of bovine neosporosis. During the last years several subunit vaccines based on immunodominant antigens and other proteins involved in adhesion, invasion and intracellular proliferation of Neospora caninum have been evaluated as targets for vaccine development in experimental mouse infection models. Among them, the rhoptry antigen NcROP2 and the immunodominant NcGRA7 protein have been assessed with varying results. Recent studies have shown that another rhoptry component, NcROP40, and NcNTPase, a putative dense granule antigen, exhibit higher expression levels in tachyzoites of virulent N. caninum isolates, suggesting that these could be potential vaccine candidates to limit the effects of infection. In the present work, the safety and efficacy of these recombinant antigens formulated in Quil-A adjuvant as monovalent vaccines or pair-wise combinations (rNcROP40+rNcROP2 and rNcGRA7+rNcNTPase) were evaluated in a pregnant mouse model of neosporosis. All the vaccine formulations elicited a specific immune response against their respective native proteins after immunization. Mice vaccinated with rNcROP40 and rNcROP2 alone or in combination produced the highest levels of IFN-γ and exhibited low parasite burdens and low IgG antibody levels after the challenge. In addition, most of the vaccine formulations were able to increase the median survival time in the offspring. However, pup survival only ensued in the groups vaccinated with rNcROP40+rNcROP2 (16.2%) and rNcROP2 (6.3%). Interestingly, vertical transmission was not observed in those survivor pups immunized with rNcROP40+rNcROP2, as shown by PCR analyses. These results show a partial protection against N. caninum infection after vaccination with rNcROP40+rNcROP2, suggesting a synergistic effect of the two recombinant rhoptry antigens.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Response to chemotherapy, recurrence and survival in advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations, compared to those without

Objectives. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage in ovarian cancer patients with Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) BRCA founder mutations, compared to sporadic ovarian cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if this association exists in ovarian cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations. In addition, we sought to account for possible "survival bias" by minimizing any lead time that may exist between diagnosis and genetic testing. ^ Methods. Patients with stage III/IV ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer and a non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1 or 2 mutation, seen for genetic testing January 1996-July 2007, were identified from genetics and institutional databases. Medical records were reviewed for clinical factors, including response to initial chemotherapy. Patients with sporadic (non-hereditary) ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, without family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were compared to similar cases, matched by age, stage, year of diagnosis, and vital status at time interval to BRCA testing. When possible, 2 sporadic patients were matched to each BRCA patient. An additional group of unmatched, sporadic ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients was included for a separate analysis. Progression-free (PFS) & overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for variables of interest. Matched pairs were treated as clusters. Stratified log rank test was used to calculate survival data for matched pairs using paired event times. Fisher's exact test, chi-square, and univariate logistic regression were also used for analysis. ^ Results. Forty five advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish (non-AJ) BRCA mutations, 86 sporadic-matched and 414 sporadic-unmatched patients were analyzed. Compared to the sporadic-matched and sporadic-unmatched ovarian cancer patients, non-AJ BRCA mutation carriers had longer PFS (17.9 & 13.8 mos. vs. 32.0 mos., HR 1.76 [95% CI 1.13–2.75] & 2.61 [95% CI 1.70–4.00]). In relation to the sporadic- unmatched patients, non-AJ BRCA patients had greater odds of complete response to initial chemotherapy (OR 2.25 [95% CI 1.17–5.41]) and improved OS (37.6 mos. vs. 101.4 mos., HR 2.64 [95% CI 1.49–4.67]). ^ Conclusions. This study demonstrates a significant survival advantage in advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients with non-AJ BRCA mutations, confirming the previous studies in the Jewish population. Our efforts to account for "survival bias," by matching, will continue with collaborative studies. ^

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Impact of hormonal therapy on survival and racial disparities in a large community-based cohort of older men with local/regional prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (CaP) is the most diagnosed non-cutaneous malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality among United States males. Major racial disparities in incidence, survival, as well as treatment persist. The mortality is three times higher among African Americans (AAs) compared with Caucasians. Androgen carcinogenesis has been persistently implicated but results are inconsistent; and hormone manipulation has been the main stay of treatment for metastatic disease, supportive of the androgen carcinogenesis. The survival disadvantage of AAs has been attributed to the differences in socioeconomic factors (SES), tumor stage, and treatment. We hypostasized that HT prolongs survival in CaP and that the racial disparities in survival is influenced by variation in HT and primary therapies as well as SES. To address these overall hypothesis, we first utilized a random-effect meta-analytic design to examine evidence from randomized trials on the efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy in localized and metastatic disease, and assessed, using Cox proportional hazards models, the effectiveness of HT in prolonging survival in a large community-based cohort of older males diagnosed with local/regional CaP. Further we examined the role of HT and primary therapies on the racial disparities in CaP survival. The results indicated that adjuvant HT compared with standard care alone is efficacious in improving overall survival, whereas HT has no significant benefit in the real world experience in increasing the overall survival of older males in the community treated for local/regional disease. Further, racial differences in survival persist and were explained to some extent by the differences in the primary therapies (radical prostatectomy, radiation and watchful waiting) and largely by SES. Therefore, given the increased used of hormonal therapy and the cost-effectiveness today, more RCTs are needed to assess whether or not survival prolongation translates to improved quality of life, and to answer the research question on whether or not the decreased use of radical prostatectomy by AAs is driven by the Clinicians bias or AAs's preference of conservative therapy and to encourage AAs to seek curative therapies, thus narrowing to some degree the persistent mortality disparities between AAs and Caucasians. ^

The role of cardiovascular comorbidities in ovarian cancer survival

Objective. One facet of cancer care that often goes ignored is comorbidities, or diseases that exist in concert with cancer. Comorbid conditions may affect survival by influencing treatment decisions and prognosis. The purpose of this secondary data analysis was to identify whether a history of cardiovascular comorbidities among ovarian cancer patients influenced survival time at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. The parent study, Project Peace, has a longitudinal design with an embedded randomized efficacy study which seeks to improve detection of depressive disorders in ovarian, peritoneal, and fallopian tube cancers. ^ Methods. Survival time was calculated for the 249 ovarian cancer patients abstracted by Project Peace staff. Cardiovascular comorbidities were documented as present, based upon information from medical records in addition to self reported comorbidities in a baseline study questionnaire. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare survival time among patients with a presence or absence of particular cardiovascular comorbidities. Cox Regression proportional models accounted for multivariable factors such as age, staging, family history of cardiovascular comorbidities, and treatment. ^ Results. Among our patient population, there was a statistically significant relationship between shorter survival time and a history of thrombosis, pericardial disease/tamponade, or COPD/pulmonary hypertension. Ovarian cancer patients with a history of thrombosis lived approximately half as long as patients without thrombosis (58.06 months vs. 121.55 months; p=.001). In addition, patients who suffered from pericardial disease/tamponade had poorer survival than those without a history of pericardial disease/tamponade (48 months vs. 80.07 months; p=.002). Ovarian cancer patients with a history of COPD or pulmonary hypertension had a median survival of 60.2 months, while the median survival for patients without these comorbidities was 80.2 months (p=.014). ^ Conclusion. Especially because of its relatively lower survival rate, greater emphasis needs to be placed on the potential influence of cardiovascular comorbid conditions in ovarian cancer.^

Assessing the improved discriminatory power of a new biomarker in prognostic models

Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) is the most popular measure of the performance of prediction models, it has limitations, especially when it is used to evaluate the added discrimination of a new biomarker in the model. Pencina et al. (2008) proposed two indices, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), to supplement the improvement in the AUC (IAUC). Their NRI and IDI are based on binary outcomes in case-control settings, which do not involve time-to-event outcome. However, many disease outcomes are time-dependent and the onset time can be censored. Measuring discrimination potential of a prognostic marker without considering time to event can lead to biased estimates. In this dissertation, we have extended the NRI and IDI to survival analysis settings and derived the corresponding sample estimators and asymptotic tests. Simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of the time-dependent NRI and IDI with Pencina’s NRI and IDI. For illustration, we have applied the proposed method to a breast cancer study.^ Key words: Prognostic model, Discrimination, Time-dependent NRI and IDI ^

Estrogen-induced gene expression and patient survival in high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary

Background. Assessment of estrogen receptor (ER) expression has inconsistent utility as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. In breast and endometrial cancers, the use of estrogen-induced gene panels, rather than ER expression alone, has shown improved prognostic capability. Specifically, over-expression of estrogen-induced genes in these tumors is associated with a better prognosis and signifies estrogen sensitivity that can be exploited with hormone antagonizing agents. It was therefore hypothesized that estrogen-induced gene expression in ovarian carcinoma would successfully predict outcomes and differentiate between tumors of varying estrogen sensitivities. Methods. Two hundred nineteen (219) patients with ovarian cancer who underwent surgery at M. D. Anderson between 2004 and 2007 were identified. Of these, eighty-three (83) patients were selected for inclusion because they had advanced stage, high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary or peritoneum, had not received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had readily available frozen tissue for study. All patients had also received adjuvant treatment with platinum and taxane agents. The expression of seven genes known to be induced by estrogen in the female reproductive tract (EIG121, sFRP1, sFRP4, RALDH2, PR, IGF-1, and ER) was measured using qRT-PCR. Unsupervised cluster analyses of multiple gene permutations were used to categorize patients as high or low estrogen-induced gene expressors. QPCR gene expression results were then compared to ER and PR immunohistochemical (IHC) expression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of both individual genes and selected gene clusters on patient survival. Results. Median follow-up time was 38.7 months (range 1-68 months). In a multivariate model, overall survival was predicted by sFRP1 expression (HR 1.10 [1.02-1.19], p=0.01) and EIG121 expression (HR 1.28 [1.10-1.49], p<0.01). A cluster defined by EIG121 and ER was further examined because that combination appeared to reasonably segregate tumors into distinct groups of high and low estrogen-induced gene expressors. Shorter overall survival was associated with high estrogen-induced gene expressors (HR 2.84 [1.11-7.30], p=0.03), even after adjustment for race, age, body mass index, and residual disease at debulking. No difference in IHC ER or PR expression was noted between gene clusters. Conclusion. In sharp contrast to breast and endometrial cancers, high estrogen-induced gene expression predicts shorter overall survival in patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. An estrogen-induced gene biomarker panel may have utility as prognostic indicator and may be useful to guide management with estrogen antagonists in this population.^

BIOLOGICAL MECHANISMS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS OF BCR-ABL-INDUCED MITOCHONDRIAL OXIDATIVE STRESS AND CELL SURVIVAL IN CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), a myeloproliferative disorder, represents approximately 15-20% of all adult leukemia. The development of CML is clearly linked to the constitutively active protein-tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL, which is encoded by BCR-ABL fusion gene as the result of chromosome 9/22 translocation (Philadelphia chromosome). Previous studies have demonstrated that oxidative stress-associated genetic, metabolic and biological alterations contribute to CML cell survival and drug refractory. Mitochondria and NAD(P)H oxidase (NOX) are the major sources of BCR-ABL-induced cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, it is still unknown how CML cells maintain the altered redox status, while escaping from the persistent oxidative stress-induced cell death. Therefore, elucidation of the mechanisms by which CML cells cope with oxidative stress will provide new insights into CML leukemogenesis. The major goal of this study is to identify the survival factors protecting CML cells against oxidative stress and develop novel therapeutic strategies to overcome drug resistance. Several experimental models were used to test CML cell redox status and cellular sensitivity to oxidative stress, including BCR-ABL inducible cell lines, BCR-ABL stably transformed cell lines and BCR-ABL-expressing CML blast crisis cells with differential BCL-XL/BCL-2 expressions. Additionally, an artificial CML cell model with heterogenic BCL-XL/BCL-2 expression was established to assess the correlation between differential survival factor expression patterns and cell sensitivity to Imatinib and oxidative stress. In this study, BCL-XL and GSH have been identified as the major survival factors responsive to BCR-ABL-promoted cellular oxidative stress and play a dominant role in regulating the threshold of oxidative stress-induced apoptosis. Cell survival factors BCL-XL and BCL-2 differentially protect mitochondria under oxidative stress. BCL-XL is an essential survival factor in preventing excessive ROS-induced cell death while BCL-2 seems to play a relatively minor role. Furthermore, the redox modulating reagent β-phenethyl isothiocyanate (PEITC) has been found to efficiently deplete GSH and induce potent cell killing effects in drug-resistant CML cells. Combination of PEITC with BCL-XL/BCL2 inhibitor ABT737 or suppression of BCL-XL by BCR-ABL inhibitor Gleevec dramatically sensitizes CML cells to apoptosis. These results have suggested that elevation of BCL-XL and cellular GSH are important for the development of CML, and that redox-directed therapy is worthy of further clinical investigations in CML.

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^