Description of loess sections in China

The magnetic susceptibility of loess and paleosols in central China represents a proxy climate index closely related to past changes of precipitation and vegetation, and thus to summer monsoon intensity. Time series of magnetic susceptibility constructed for three loess-paleosol sequences in the southern part of the Chinese Loess Plateau document the history of summer monsoon variation during the last 130,000 yr. They correlate closely with the oxygen isotope record of stages 1 to 5 in deep-sea sediments. Soils were forming during intervals of strong summer monsoon, whereas loess units were deposited at times of reduced monsoon intensity. The Chinese loess-paleosol sequence can thus be viewed as a proxy record of Asian monsoon variability extending over the last 2.5 myr.

Sea surface temperature and primary productivity reconstruction of sediment core SO130-275KL from the northeastern Arabian Sea during the late Holocene

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and d15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

Winter sea surface temperature reconstruction from planktic foraminiferal transfer functions in the northeastern Arabian Sea over the last two millennia

The Indian monsoon system is an important climate feature of the northern Indian Ocean. Small variations of the wind and precipitation patterns have fundamental influence on the societal, agricultural, and economic development of India and its neighboring countries. To understand current trends, sensitivity to forcing, or natural variation, records beyond the instrumental period are needed. However, high-resolution archives of past winter monsoon variability are scarce. One potential archive of such records are marine sediments deposited on the continental slope in the NE Arabian Sea, an area where present-day conditions are dominated by the winter monsoon. In this region, winter monsoon conditions lead to distinctive changes in surface water properties, affecting marine plankton communities that are deposited in the sediment. Using planktic foraminifera as a sensitive and well-preserved plankton group, we first characterize the response of their species distribution on environmental gradients from a dataset of surface sediment samples in the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. Transfer functions for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions were applied to a decadal-scale record of assemblage counts from the Pakistan Margin spanning the last 2000?years. The reconstructed temperature record reveals an intensification of winter monsoon intensity near the year 100 CE. Prior to this transition, winter temperatures were >1.5°C warmer than today. Conditions similar to the present seem to have established after 450 CE, interrupted by a singular event near 950 CE with warmer temperatures and accordingly weak winter monsoon. Frequency analysis revealed significant 75-, 40-, and 37-year cycles, which are known from decadal- to centennial-scale resolution records of Indian summer monsoon variability and interpreted as solar irradiance forcing. Our first independent record of Indian winter monsoon activity confirms that winter and summer monsoons were modulated on the same frequency bands and thus indicates that both monsoon systems are likely controlled by the same driving force.

Age model and palaeoclimate records over the past 22,000 years of sediment core GeoB10053-7

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon is an important component of the climate system in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. However, its past variability, relation with northern and southern high-latitude climate and connection to the other Asian monsoon systems are poorly understood. Here we present high-resolution records of monsoon-controlled austral winter upwelling during the past 22,000 years, based on planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and faunal composition in a sedimentary archive collected offshore southern Java. We show that glacial-interglacial variations in the Australian-Indonesian winter monsoon were in phase with the Indian summer monsoon system, consistent with their modern linkage through cross-equatorial surface winds. Likewise, millennial-scale variability of upwelling shares similar sign and timing with upwelling variability in the Arabian Sea. On the basis of element composition and grain-size distribution as precipitation-sensitive proxies in the same archive, we infer that (austral) summer monsoon rainfall was highest during the Bølling-Allerød period and the past 2,500 years. Our results indicate drier conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 due to a southward shift of summer rainfall and a relatively weak Hadley cell south of the Equator. We suggest that the Australian-Indonesian summer and winter monsoon variability were closely linked to summer insolation and abrupt climate changes in the northern hemisphere.

Bulk and amino acid parameters of core SO188-342KL from the Northern Bay of Bengal for the last 18 ka

The Northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB) is a globally important region for deep-sea organic matter (OM) deposition due to massive fluvial discharge from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (G-B-M) rivers and moderate to high surface productivity. Previous studies have focused on carbon burial in turbiditic sediments of the Bengal Fan. However, little is known about the storage of carbon in pelagic and hemipelagic sediments of the Bay of Bengal over millennial time scales. This study presents a comprehensive history of OM origin and fate as well as a quantification of carbon sediment storage in the Eastern Bengal Slope (EBS) during the last 18 ka. Bulk organic proxies (TOC, TIC, TN, d13CTOC, d15NTN) and content and composition of total hydrolysable amino acids (THAA) in a sediment core (SO188-342KL) from the EBS were analyzed. Three periods of high OM accumulation were identified: the Late Glacial (LG), the Bölling/Alleröd (B/A), and the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO). Lower eustatic sea level before 15 ka BP allowed a closer connection between the EBS and the fluvial debouch, favoring high terrestrial OM input to the core site. This connection was progressively lost between 15 and 7 ka BP as sea level rose to its present height and terrestrial OM input decreased considerably. Export and preservation of marine OM was stimulated during periods of summer monsoon intensification (B/A and EHCO) as a consequence of higher surface productivity enhanced by cyclonic-eddy nutrient pumping and fluvial nutrient delivery into the photic zone. Changes in the THAA composition indicate that the marine plankton community structure shifted from calcareous-dominated before 13 ka BP to siliceous-dominated afterwards. They also indicate that the relative proportion of marine versus terrestrial OM deposited at site 342KL was primarily driven by relative sea level and enlarged during the Holocene. The ballasting effect of lithogenic particles during periods of high coastal proximity and/or enhanced fluvial discharge promoted the export and preservation of OM. The high organic carbon accumulation rates in the EBS during the LG (18-17 ka BP) were 5-fold higher than at present and comparable to those of glacial upwelling areas. Despite the differences in sediment and OM transport and storage among the Western and Eastern sectors of the NBoB, this region remains important for global carbon sequestration during sea level low-stands. In addition, the summer monsoon was a key promotor of terrestrial and marine OM export to the deep-ocean, highlighting its relevance as regulator of the global carbon budget.

Benthic foraminifera assemblages of the Gulf of Aden

Benthic and selected planktic foraminifera and stable isotope records were determined in a piston core from the Gulf of Aden, NW Arabian Sea that spans the last 530 ka. The benthic foraminifera were grouped into four principal assemblages using Q-mode Principal Component Analyses. Comparison of each of these assemblages with the fauna of the nearby regions enabled us to identify their specific environmental requirements as a function of variability in food supply and strength of the oxygen minimum zone and by that to use them as indicators of surface water productivity. The benthic foraminiferal productivity indicators coupled with the record of Globigerina bulloides, a planktic foraminifer known to be sensitive to productivity changes in the region, all indicate higher productivity during glacial intervals and productivity similar to present or even reduced during interglacial stages. This trend is opposite to the productivity pattern related to the SW summer monsoon of the Arabian Sea and indicates the role of the NE winter monsoon on the productivity of the Gulf of Aden. A period of exceptionally enhanced productivity is recognized in the Gulf of Aden region between ~60 and 13 kyr indicating the intensification of the NE winter monsoon to its maximal activity. Contemporaneous indication of increased productivity in other parts of the Arabian Sea, unexplained so far by the SW summer monsoon variability, might be related to the intensification of the NE winter monsoon. Another prominent event of high productivity, second in its extent to the last glacial productivity event is recognized between 430 and 460 kyr. These two events seem to correspond to periods of similar orbital positioning of rather low precession (and eccentricity) amplitude for a relatively long period. Glacial boundary conditions seem to control to a large extent the NE winter monsoon variability as also indicated by the dominance of the 100 ka cycle in the investigated time series. Secondary in their importance are the 23 and 41 ka cycles which seem also to contribute to the NE monsoonal variability. Following the identification of productivity events related to the NE winter monsoon in the Gulf of Aden, it is possible now to extend this observation to other parts of the Arabian Sea and consider the contribution of this monsoonal system to the productivity fluctuations preserved in the sedimentary records.

Sedimentary n-alkanes, their hydrogen isotopes, GDGTs and d15N as well as d13Corg of lake Nam Co, Tibet

The transition from the last Glacial to the current Interglacial, the Holocene, represents an important period with climatic and environmental changes impacting ecosystems. In this study, we examined the interplay between the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) and the Westerlies at lake Nam Co, southern Tibet to understand the climatic effects on the ecosystem. Different organic geochemical proxies (n-alkanes, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, dD, d13Corg, d15N) are applied to reconstruct the environmental and hydrological changes on one of the longest available paleorecords at the Tibetan Plateau. Based on our paleohydrological dD proxies, the aquatic signal lags the terrestrial one due to specific ecological thresholds, which, in addition to climatic changes, can influence aquatic organisms. The aquatic organisms' response strongly depends on temperature and associated lake size, as well as pH and nutrient availability. Because the terrestrial vegetation reacts faster and more sensitively to changes in the monsoonal and climatic system, the dD of n-C29 and the reconstructed inflow water signal represent an appropriate IOSM proxy. In general, the interplay of the different air masses seems to be primarily controlled by solar insolation. In the Holocene, the high insolation generates a large land-ocean pressure gradient associated with strong monsoonal winds and the strongest IOSM. In the last glacial period, however, the weak insolation promoted the Westerlies, thereby increasing their influence at the Tibetan Plateau. Our results help to elucidate the variable IOSM, and they illustrate a remarkable shift in the lake system regarding pH, d13Corg and d15N from the last glacial to the Holocene interglacial period.

XRF measurements, CNS content, grain size and sediment accumulation of sediment core NC_08/01 from lake Nam Co, Tibet

Decadal to sub-decadal variability of inflow, evaporation and biological productivity derived from Lake Nam Co was used to reconstruct hydrological changes for the past ca. 24 k cal a BP. The timing of these variations corresponds to known climatic shifts on the Northern Hemisphere. After a dry and cold Last Glacial Maximum the lake level of Nam Co initially rose at ca. 20 k cal a BP. Moist but further cold conditions between ca. 16.2 and 14 k cal a BP correspond to Heinrich Event 1. A warm and moist phase between ca. 14 and 13 k cal a BP is expressed as a massive enhancement in inflow and biological productivity and might be associated with a first intensification of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon coinciding with the Bølling-Allerød complex. A twostep decrease in inflow and a contemporaneous decline in biological productivity until ca. 11.8 k cal a BP points to cool and dry conditions during the Younger Dryas. Lake levels peak at ca. 9.4 k cal a BP, although hydrological conditions remain relatively stable during the Holocene with only low-amplitude variations observed.

(Table S2) The reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Intraseasonal variability of mixed layer depth in the tropical Indian Ocean

In this paper, we use an observational dataset built from Argo in situ profiles to describe the main large-scale patterns of intraseasonal mixed layer depth (MLD) variations in the Indian Ocean. An eddy permitting (0.25A degrees) regional ocean model that generally agrees well with those observed estimates is then used to investigate the mechanisms that drive MLD intraseasonal variations and to assess their potential impact on the related SST response. During summer, intraseasonal MLD variations in the Bay of Bengal and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean primarily respond to active/break convective phases of the summer monsoon. In the southern Arabian Sea, summer MLD variations are largely driven by seemingly-independent intraseasonal fluctuations of the Findlater jet intensity. During winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation drives most of the intraseasonal MLD variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Large winter MLD signals in northern Arabian Sea can, on the other hand, be related to advection of continental temperature anomalies from the northern end of the basin. In all the aforementioned regions, peak-to-peak MLD variations usually reach 10 m, but can exceed 20 m for the largest events. Buoyancy flux and wind stirring contribute to intraseasonal MLD fluctuations in roughly equal proportions, except for the Northern Arabian Sea in winter, where buoyancy fluxes dominate. A simple slab ocean analysis finally suggests that the impact of these MLD fluctuations on intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability is probably rather weak, because of the compensating effects of thermal capacity and sunlight penetration: a thin mixed-layer is more efficiently warmed at the surface by heat fluxes but loses more solar flux through its lower base.

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

Simulation of monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM

The monsoon depressions that form over India during the summer are analyzed using simulations from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model. This type of synoptic system often occurs with a frequency of one to two per month and can produce a strong Indian rainfall. Two kinds of analyses are conducted in this study. The first one is a subjective analysis based on the evolution of the precipitation rate and the pattern of the sea level pressure. The second one is an objective analysis performed using the TRACK program, which identifies and tracks the minima in the sea level pressure anomaly held and computes the statistics for the distribution of systems. The analysis of a 9-yr control run, which simulates strong precipitation rates over the foothills of the Himalayas and over southern India but weak rates over central India, shows that the number of disturbances is coo low and that they almost never occur during August, when break conditions prevail. The generated disturbances more often move north, toward the foothills of the Himalayas. Another analysis is performed to study the effect of the Tibetan Plateau elevation on these disturbances with a 9-yr run carried out with a Tibetan Plateau at 50% of its current height. It is shown that this later integration simulates more frequent monsoon disturbances, which move rather northwestward, in agreement with the current observations. The comparison between the two runs shows that the June-July-August rainfall difference is in large part due to changes in the occurrence of the monsoon disturbances.

Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright