Early Warning System Potential for Single Sourcing Risk Mitigation

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Therapeutic efficacy of alternative primaquine regimens to standard treatment in preventing relapses by Plasmodium vivax : A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To compare efficacy and safety of primaquine regimens currently used to prevent relapses by Plasmodium vivax. Methods: A systematic review was carried out to identify clinical trials evaluating efficacy and safety to prevent malaria recurrences by P. vivax of primaquine regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day for 7 or 14 days compared to standard regimen of 0.25 mg/kg/day for 14 days. Efficacy of primaquine according to cumulative incidence of recurrences after 28 days was determined. The overall relative risk with fixed-effects meta-analysis was estimated. Results: For the regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day/7 days were identified 7 studies, which showed an incidence of recurrence between 0% and 20% with follow-up 60-210 days; only 4 studies comparing with the standard regimen 0.25 mg/kg/day/14 days and no difference in recurrences between both regimens (RR= 0.977, 95% CI= 0.670 to 1.423) were found. 3 clinical trials using regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day/14 days with an incidence of recurrences between 1.8% and 18.0% during 330-365 days were identified; only one study comparing with the standard regimen (RR= 0.846, 95% CI= 0.484 to 1.477). High risk of bias and differences in handling of included studies were found. Conclusion: Available evidence is insufficient to determine whether currently PQ regimens used as alternative rather than standard treatment have better efficacy and safety in preventing relapse of P. vivax. Clinical trials are required to guide changes in treatment regimen of malaria vivax.

Therapeutic efficacy of alternative primaquine regimens to standard treatment in preventing relapses by Plasmodium vivax: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To compare efficacy and safety of primaquine regimens currently used to prevent relapses by Plasmodium vivax. Methods: A systematic review was carried out to identify clinical trials evaluating efficacy and safety to prevent malaria recurrences by P. vivax of primaquine regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day for 7 or 14 days compared to standard regimen of 0.25 mg/kg/day for 14 days. Efficacy of primaquine according to cumulative incidence of recurrences after 28 days was determined. The overall relative risk with fixed-effects meta-analysis was estimated. Results: For the regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day/7 days were identified 7 studies, which showed an incidence of recurrence between 0% and 20% with follow-up 60-210 days; only 4 studies comparing with the standard regimen 0.25 mg/kg/day/14 days and no difference in recurrences between both regimens (RR= 0.977, 95% CI= 0.670 to 1.423) were found. 3 clinical trials using regimen 0.5 mg/kg/day/14 days with an incidence of recurrences between 1.8% and 18.0% during 330-365 days were identified; only one study comparing with the standard regimen (RR= 0.846, 95% CI= 0.484 to 1.477). High risk of bias and differences in handling of included studies were found. Conclusion: Available evidence is insufficient to determine whether currently PQ regimens used as alternative rather than standard treatment have better efficacy and safety in preventing relapse of P. vivax. Clinical trials are required to guide changes in treatment regimen of malaria vivax.

Mercury in Gas Operations - Occupational Health Risk Assessment

The project goal was to determine plant operations and maintenance worker’s level of exposure to mercury during routine and non-routine (i.e. turnarounds and inspections) maintenance events in eight gas processing plants. The project team prepared sampling and analysis plans designed to each plant’s process design and scheduled maintenance events. Occupational exposure sampling and monitoring efforts were focused on the measurement of mercury vapor concentration in worker breathing zone air during specific maintenance events including: pipe scrapping, process filter replacement, and process vessel inspection. Similar exposure groups were identified and worker breathing zone and ambient air samples were collected and analyzed for total mercury. Occupational exposure measurement techniques included portable field monitoring instruments, standard passive and active monitoring methods and an emerging passive absorption technology. Process sampling campaigns were focused on inlet gas streams, mercury removal unit outlets, treated gas, acid gas and sales gas. The results were used to identify process areas with increased potential for mercury exposure during maintenance events. Sampling methods used for the determination of total mercury in gas phase streams were based on the USEPA Methods 30B and EPA 1631 and EPA 1669. The results of four six-week long sampling campaigns have been evaluated and some conclusions and recommendations have been made. The author’s role in this project included the direction of all field phases of the project and the development and implementation of the sampling strategy. Additionally, the author participated in the development and implementation of the Quality Assurance Project Plan, Data Quality Objectives, and Similar Exposure Groups identification. All field generated data was reviewed by the author along with laboratory reports in order to generate conclusions and recommendations.

Impact of the use of β-lactam antimicrobials on the emergence of Escherichia coli isolates resistant to cephalosporins under standard pig-rearing conditions

The aim of this study was to evaluate if the treatments with ceftiofur and amoxicillin are risk factors for the emergence of cephalosporin resistant (CR) E. coli in a pig farm during the rearing period. One hundred 7-day-old piglets were divided into two groups, a control (n = 50) group and a group parenterally treated with ceftiofur (n = 50). During the fattening period, both groups were subdivided in two. A second treatment with amoxicillin was administered in feed to two of the four groups, as follows: group 1 (untreated, n = 20), group 2 (treated with amoxicillin, n = 26), group 3 (treated with ceftiofur, n = 20), and group 4 (treated with ceftiofur and amoxicillin, n = 26). During treatment with ceftiofur, fecal samples were collected before treatment (day 0) and at days 2, 7, 14, 21, and 42 posttreatment, whereas with amoxicillin, the sampling was extended 73 days posttreatment. CR E. coli bacteria were selected on MacConkey agar with ceftriaxone (1 mg/liter). Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), MICs of 14 antimicrobials, the presence of cephalosporin resistance genes, and replicon typing of plasmids were analyzed. Both treatments generated an increase in the prevalence of CR E. coli, which was statistically significant in the treated groups. Resistance diminished after treatment. A total of 47 CR E. coli isolates were recovered during the study period; of these, 15 contained blaCTX-M-1, 10 contained blaCTX-M-14, 4 contained blaCTX-M-9, 2 contained blaCTX-M-15, and 5 contained blaSHV-12. The treatment with ceftiofur and amoxicillin was associated with the emergence of CR E. coli during the course of the treatment. However, by the time of finishing, CR E. coli bacteria were not recovered from the animals.

Risk premiumin the global creditMarkets: 2006-2012

¿What have we learnt from the 2006-2012 crisis, including events such as the subprime crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers or the European sovereign debt crisis, among others? It is usually assumed that in firms that have a CDS quotation, this CDS is the key factor in establishing the credit premiumrisk for a new financial asset. Thus, the CDS is a key element for any investor in taking relative value opportunities across a firm’s capital structure. In the first chapter we study the most relevant aspects of the microstructure of the CDS market in terms of pricing, to have a clear idea of how this market works. We consider that such an analysis is a necessary point for establishing a solid base for the rest of the chapters in order to carry out the different empirical studies we perform. In its document “Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems”, Basel sets the requirement of a capital charge for credit valuation adjustment (CVA) risk in the trading book and its methodology for the computation for the capital requirement. This regulatory requirement has added extra pressure for in-depth knowledge of the CDS market and this motivates the analysis performed in this thesis. The problem arises in estimating of the credit risk premium for those counterparties without a directly quoted CDS in the market. How can we estimate the credit spread for an issuer without CDS? In addition to this, given the high volatility period in the credit market in the last few years and, in particular, after the default of Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008, we observe the presence of big outliers in the distribution of credit spread in the different combinations of rating, industry and region. After an exhaustive analysis of the results from the different models studied, we have reached the following conclusions. It is clear that hierarchical regression models fit the data much better than those of non-hierarchical regression. Furthermore,we generally prefer the median model (50%-quantile regression) to the mean model (standard OLS regression) due to its robustness when assigning the price to a new credit asset without spread,minimizing the “inversion problem”. Finally, an additional fundamental reason to prefer the median model is the typical "right skewness" distribution of CDS spreads...

Handgrip strength cut-off for cardiometabolic risk index among Colombian children and adolescents : the FUPRECOL study

Abstract Objective: Evidence shows an association between muscular strength (MS) and health among youth, however low muscular strength cut-points for the detection of high metabolic risk in Latin-American populations are scarce. The aim of this study was two-fold: to explore potential age- and sex-specific thresholds of MS, for optimal cardiometabolic risk categorization among Colombian children and adolescents; and to investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by MS group by applying the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) cut point. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study (the FUPRECOL study), published elsewhere. The FUPRECOL study assessments were conducted during the 2014– 2015 school year. MS was estimated by a handle dynamometer on 1,950 children and adolescents from Colombia, using the MS relative to weight (handgrip strength/body mass). A metabolic risk score was computed from the following components: waist circumference, triglycerides, HDL-c, glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ROC analysis showed a significant discriminatory accuracy of MS in identifying the low/high metabolic risk in children and adolescents and both gender. Results: In children, handgrip strength/body mass level for a low metabolic risk were 0.359 and 0.376 in girls and boys, respectively. In adolescents, these points were 0.440 and 0.447 in girls and boys, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results suggest a hypothetical MS level relative to weight for having a low metabolic risk, which could be used to identify youths at risk.

Harnessing the cellular and molecular complexity of high-risk neuroblastoma to investigate novel potential treatment approaches

Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common type of tumor in infants and the third most common cancer in children. Current clinical practices employ a variety of strategies for NB treatment, ranging from standard chemotherapy to immunotherapy. Due to a lack of knowledge about the molecular mechanisms underlying the disease's onset, aggressive phenotype, and therapeutic resistance, these approaches are ineffective in the majority of instances. MYCN amplification is one of the most well-known genetic alterations associated with high risk in NB. The following work is divided into three sections and aims to provide new insights into the biology of NB and hypothetical new treatment strategies. First, we identified RUNX1T1 as a key gene involved in MYCN-driven NB onset in a transgenic mouse model. Our results suggested that that RUNX1T1 may recruit the Co-REST complex on target genes that regulate the differentiation of NB cells and that the interaction with RCOR3 is essential. Second, we provided insights into the role of MYCN in dysregulating the CDK/RB/E2F pathway controlling the G1/S transition of the cell cycle. We found that RB is dispensable in regulating MYCN amplified NB's cell cycle, providing the rationale for using cyclin/CDK complexes inhibitors in NBs carrying MYCN amplification and relatively high levels of RB1 expression. Third, we generated an M13 bacteriophage platform to target GD2-expressing cells in NB. Here, we generated a recombinant M13 phage capable of binding GD2-expressing cells selectively (M13GD2). Our results showed that M13GD2 chemically conjugated with the photosensitizer ECB04 preserves the retargeting capability, inducing cell death even at picomolar concentrations upon light irradiation. These results provided proof of concept for M13 phage employment in targeted photodynamic therapy for NB, an exciting strategy to overcome resistance to classical immunotherapy.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Nat2, Xrcc1 And Hogg1 Polymorphisms, Cigarette Smoking, Alcohol Consumption And Risk Of Upper Aerodigestive Tract Cancer.

To evaluate associations between polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2), human 8-oxoguanine glycosylase 1 (hOGG1) and X-ray repair cross-complementing protein 1 (XRCC1) genes and risk of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer. A case-control study involving 117 cases and 224 controls was undertaken. The NAT2 gene polymorphisms were genotyped by automated sequencing and XRCC1 Arg399Gln and hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphisms were determined by Polymerase Chain Reaction followed by Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) methods. Slow metabolization phenotype was significantly associated as a risk factor for the development of UADT cancer (p=0.038). Furthermore, haplotype of slow metabolization was also associated with UADT cancer (p=0.014). The hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism (CG or GG vs. CC genotypes) was shown as a protective factor against UADT cancer in moderate smokers (p=0.031). The XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism (GA or AA vs. GG genotypes), in turn, was a protective factor against UADT cancer only among never-drinkers (p=0.048). Interactions involving NAT2, XRCC1 Arg399Gln and hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphisms may modulate the risk of UADT cancer in this population.

[association Between Breast Arterial Calcifications And Cardiovascular Risk Factors In Menopausal Women].

To analyze associations between mammographic arterial mammary calcifications in menopausal women and risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This was a cross-sectional retrospective study, in which we analyzed the mammograms and medical records of 197 patients treated between 2004 and 2005. Study variables were: breast arterial calcifications, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, age, obesity, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hypertension. For statistical analysis, we used the Mann-Whitney, χ2 and Cochran-Armitage tests, and also evaluated the prevalence ratios between these variables and mammary artery calcifications. Data were analyzed with the SAS version 9.1 software. In the group of 197 women, there was a prevalence of 36.6% of arterial calcifications on mammograms. Among the risk factors analyzed, the most frequent were hypertension (56.4%), obesity (31.9%), smoking (15.2%), and diabetes (14.7%). Acute coronary syndrome and stroke presented 5.6 and 2.0% of prevalence, respectively. Among the mammograms of women with diabetes, the odds ratio of mammary artery calcifications was 2.1 (95%CI 1.0-4.1), with p-value of 0.02. On the other hand, the mammograms of smokers showed the low occurrence of breast arterial calcification, with an odds ratio of 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.8). Hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, stroke and acute coronary syndrome were not significantly associated with breast arterial calcification. The occurrence of breast arterial calcification was associated with diabetes mellitus and was negatively associated with smoking. The presence of calcification was independent of the other risk factors for cardiovascular disease analyzed.

Urinary Tract Infection In Renal Transplant Recipients: Incidence, Risk Factors, And Impact On Graft Function.

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common infection posttransplant. However, the risk factors for and the impact of UTIs remain controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of posttransplant UTIs in a series of renal transplant recipients from deceased donors. Secondary objectives were to identify: (1) the most frequent infectious agents; (2) risk factors related to donor; (3) risk factors related to recipients; and (4) impact of UTI on graft function. This was a retrospective analysis of medical records from renal transplant patients from January to December 2010. Local ethics committee approved the protocol. The incidence of UTI in this series was 34.2%. Risk factors for UTI were older age, (independent of gender), biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes, and kidneys from deceased donors (United Network for Organ Sharing criteria). For female patients, the number of pretransplant pregnancies was an additional risk factor. Recurrent UTI was observed in 44% of patients from the UTI group. The most common infectious agents were Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, for both isolated and recurrent UTI. No difference in renal graft function or immunosuppressive therapy was observed between groups after the 1-year follow-up. In this series, older age, previous pregnancy, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, and biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes were risk factors for posttransplant UTI. Recurrence of UTI was observed in 44%, with no negative impact on graft function or survival.

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.