D5.1 – Scenario Arrangement Document – round 1

This deliverable is a confirmation and update of 'D5.5 - First Version Scenario Arrangement Document – round 1' after a revisions with game developers. It outlines the implementation plan for each of the first-round studies of the RAGE pilots. The main goal of these pilots is to perform a small-scale test of the RAGE games with end-users and intermediary stakeholders in five different non-leisure domains to guide the further development of the games for the final validation studies.

Endocrine disruptors mixtures: the real scenario of human exposure

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are exogenous agents that have the ability to interfere with/or mimic estrogenic hormones and, therefore can simultaneously and differentially trigger specific signaling pathways responsible for the nature and magnitude of biological responses in diverse cell types. Human exposure to EDCs, particularly at low-doses, is ubiquitous, persistent and occurs in complex mixtures. These compounds can bioaccumulate in lipid compartments of tissues forming a mixed “body burden” of contaminants of different origins. Although the independent action of chemicals has been considered the main principle in EDCs mixture toxicity, several effects cannot be predicted when analyzing single compounds individually. Based in a revision of the literature, focused in studies that evaluated EDCs mixtures, we hypothesize the scenario of a pregnant woman environmentally exposed to three different EDCs as a potential real scenario of human exposure supported by data describing where exposure to these compounds occur.

Uncertainty Management in Acquisitions: What Scenario Analysis Could Offer

This study answers to How scenario analysis could help acquiring companies to reduce uncertainty in the acquisition process? It is due to the mismatch between academic world’s caveat emptor and business world’s eagerness to pursue acquisitions that motivated this study. Acquisitions are as popular as ever, thus, managing the uncertainty surrounding these transactions is relevant. This study creates a generic theoretical model with a strategy-level scope. Thus, the study does not discuss nor does it seek answers to operational issues related in both fields. This study is explorative and constructivist in nature. It discusses briefly the concepts and relatedness of risk and uncertainty and establishes a hierarchy between these two: Risks being a “sub-section” of uncertainty, although not with clear boundaries. Acquisition theory follows the process view that understands acquisitions as a process with various levels – some strategic, some operational. Scenario analysis is presented as tool for management to enrich their strategic discussion and understand their future options. The empirical data collection is done through interviewing. The results are reflected on literature on strategic management, scenario literature, and on a consultancy’s report picturing firm’s strategies in accordance with their acquisition processes. The study has an abductive approach as it tries to combine multiple views and generates discussion between literature review, interviews, the report, and second round of literature. The model suggests three propositions: First, at the strategic decision making level, when the decision whether or not to pursue an acquisition growth strategy has been made, it provides firms new data and enriches the strategic discussion. Second, when the acquisition strategy has been created, it can be applied as a tool to measure possible acquisition targets against the backdrop of the first set of scenarios. Third, due to the scenario analysis’ requirement to include people with various backgrounds and from multiple levels of the corporate hierarchy, it could help managers to avoid biases stemming from hubris.

The outset of mental torture. Through the lens of the Ticking Time Bomb Scenario

No doubt shall be placed when qualifying torture as one of the cruellest crime offences against human beings. It is widely known that the first torture practices go back to the Middle Ages, where torture mechanisms and devices were used as a legitimate means of punishment, extraction of confessions or executions. Brutal techniques such as ‘Judas Cradle’, ‘The Rack’ or the ‘Rat Torture’ were indeed, the ones commonly used. Moreover, some centuries onwards, torture warrants were permitted and authorised by Privy Councils in legislations such as the English one. However, examples like that were the only ones which public accountability was given to, whereas off-the-book practices remained in silence in other countries for long lasting years. Nowadays, in the 21st century, there are innumerable enforced laws and provisions that prohibit the act of torture, to be precise, physical and psychological torture. Nonetheless, not only are these legislations necessary for fighting torture, but also ad hoc courts and specialised committees continuously report the existence of this crime offence.

Mission and Scenario Planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (Path Planning and Collision Avoidance Systems)

As unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAVs) are being widely utilized in military and civil applications, concerns are growing about mission safety and how to integrate dierent phases of mission design. One important barrier to a coste ective and timely safety certication process for UAVs is the lack of a systematic approach for bridging the gap between understanding high-level commander/pilot intent and implementation of intent through low-level UAV behaviors. In this thesis we demonstrate an entire systems design process for a representative UAV mission, beginning from an operational concept and requirements and ending with a simulation framework for segments of the mission design, such as path planning and decision making in collision avoidance. In this thesis, we divided this complex system into sub-systems; path planning, collision detection and collision avoidance. We then developed software modules for each sub-system

Development of new scenario decomposition techniques for linear and nonlinear stochastic programming

Une approche classique pour traiter les problèmes d’optimisation avec incertitude à deux- et multi-étapes est d’utiliser l’analyse par scénario. Pour ce faire, l’incertitude de certaines données du problème est modélisée par vecteurs aléatoires avec des supports finis spécifiques aux étapes. Chacune de ces réalisations représente un scénario. En utilisant des scénarios, il est possible d’étudier des versions plus simples (sous-problèmes) du problème original. Comme technique de décomposition par scénario, l’algorithme de recouvrement progressif est une des méthodes les plus populaires pour résoudre les problèmes de programmation stochastique multi-étapes. Malgré la décomposition complète par scénario, l’efficacité de la méthode du recouvrement progressif est très sensible à certains aspects pratiques, tels que le choix du paramètre de pénalisation et la manipulation du terme quadratique dans la fonction objectif du lagrangien augmenté. Pour le choix du paramètre de pénalisation, nous examinons quelques-unes des méthodes populaires, et nous proposons une nouvelle stratégie adaptive qui vise à mieux suivre le processus de l’algorithme. Des expériences numériques sur des exemples de problèmes stochastiques linéaires multi-étapes suggèrent que la plupart des techniques existantes peuvent présenter une convergence prématurée à une solution sous-optimale ou converger vers la solution optimale, mais avec un taux très lent. En revanche, la nouvelle stratégie paraît robuste et efficace. Elle a convergé vers l’optimalité dans toutes nos expériences et a été la plus rapide dans la plupart des cas. Pour la question de la manipulation du terme quadratique, nous faisons une revue des techniques existantes et nous proposons l’idée de remplacer le terme quadratique par un terme linéaire. Bien que qu’il nous reste encore à tester notre méthode, nous avons l’intuition qu’elle réduira certaines difficultés numériques et théoriques de la méthode de recouvrement progressif.

Scenario-based preparedness plan for floods

The increasing trend of disaster victims globally is posing a complex challenge for disaster management authorities. Moreover, to accomplish successful transition between preparedness and response, it is important to consider the different features inherent to each type of disaster. Floods are portrayed as one of the most frequent and harmful disasters, hence introducing the necessity to develop a tool for disaster preparedness to perform efficient and effective flood management. The purpose of the article is to introduce a method to simultaneously define the proper location of shelters and distribution centers, along with the allocation of prepositioned goods and distribution decisions required to satisfy flood victims. The tool combines the use of a raster geographical information system (GIS) and an optimization model. The GIS determines the flood hazard of the city areas aiming to assess the flood situation and to discard floodable facilities. Then, the multi-commodity multimodal optimization model is solved to obtain the Pareto frontier of two criteria: distance and cost. The methodology was applied to a case study in the flood of Villahermosa, Mexico, in 2007, and the results were compared to an optimized scenario of the guidelines followed by Mexican authorities, concluding that the value of the performance measures was improved using the developed method. Furthermore, the results exhibited the possibility to provide adequate care for people affected with less facilities than the current approach and the advantages of considering more than one distribution center for relief prepositioning.

Development of new scenario decomposition techniques for linear and nonlinear stochastic programming

Une approche classique pour traiter les problèmes d’optimisation avec incertitude à deux- et multi-étapes est d’utiliser l’analyse par scénario. Pour ce faire, l’incertitude de certaines données du problème est modélisée par vecteurs aléatoires avec des supports finis spécifiques aux étapes. Chacune de ces réalisations représente un scénario. En utilisant des scénarios, il est possible d’étudier des versions plus simples (sous-problèmes) du problème original. Comme technique de décomposition par scénario, l’algorithme de recouvrement progressif est une des méthodes les plus populaires pour résoudre les problèmes de programmation stochastique multi-étapes. Malgré la décomposition complète par scénario, l’efficacité de la méthode du recouvrement progressif est très sensible à certains aspects pratiques, tels que le choix du paramètre de pénalisation et la manipulation du terme quadratique dans la fonction objectif du lagrangien augmenté. Pour le choix du paramètre de pénalisation, nous examinons quelques-unes des méthodes populaires, et nous proposons une nouvelle stratégie adaptive qui vise à mieux suivre le processus de l’algorithme. Des expériences numériques sur des exemples de problèmes stochastiques linéaires multi-étapes suggèrent que la plupart des techniques existantes peuvent présenter une convergence prématurée à une solution sous-optimale ou converger vers la solution optimale, mais avec un taux très lent. En revanche, la nouvelle stratégie paraît robuste et efficace. Elle a convergé vers l’optimalité dans toutes nos expériences et a été la plus rapide dans la plupart des cas. Pour la question de la manipulation du terme quadratique, nous faisons une revue des techniques existantes et nous proposons l’idée de remplacer le terme quadratique par un terme linéaire. Bien que qu’il nous reste encore à tester notre méthode, nous avons l’intuition qu’elle réduira certaines difficultés numériques et théoriques de la méthode de recouvrement progressif.

European lobster (Homarus gammarus) larvae under an acidification scenario: addressing biochemical, development and behaviour responses

A acidificação dos oceanos constitui uma problemática global e a realidade de que está, efetivamente, a acontecer não é uma consideração subjetiva. A Acidificação dos oceanos provocada por emissões de dióxido de carbono de origem antropogénica tem vindo a reduzir o pH das águas superficiais do Oceano e projeções preveem a continuidade deste processo. Embora muita investigação tenha sido desenvolvida no âmbito dos invertebrados que calcificam, tais como moluscos e crustáceos, poucos consideraram o estudo de efeitos ao nível sub-celular para avaliar stress oxidativo ou respostas funcionais do metabolismo energético em tais condições, interligando vários níveis de organização biológica. O objetivo do presente estudo foi o de avaliar os efeitos da exposição a diferentes níveis-alvo de pCO2 (controlo: 370 μatm; aumentado: 710 μatm) e de pH (controlo: 8.15; reduzido: 7.85) em parâmetros de crescimento bem como avaliar respostas comportamentais e bioquímicas relacionadas com stress oxidativo e metabolismo energético durante o desenvolvimento larvar de um crustáceo decápode. Este cenário de acidificação está de acordo com os RCPs previstos pelo Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas (IPCC, 2014) para o ano 2100. Para o presente estudo, foi utilizado o crustáceo Homarus gammarus (L.) – sendo uma espécie com elevado valor comercial, que tem vindo a sofrer elevada pressão de pesca em águas Europeias. Fêmeas adultas provenientes da costa Atlântica Oeste Portuguesa foram obtidas de um retalhista local. Após a eclosão em ambiente laboratorial controlado, larvas provenientes da mesma progenitora foram expostas às condições acima descritas desde o momento da eclosão até à chegada ao Estádio III. A sobrevivência individual e ocorrência de ecdise foram avaliados individualmente de 12h em 12h. Réplicas de cada tratamento foram recolhidas em momentos específicos durante o Estádio I (primeiro estádio larvar) e Estádio III (último estádio larvar) para análise morfométrica e de crescimento (peso fresco e comprimento carapaça) e respostas bioquímicas. Os biomarcadores analisados incluíram parâmetros relacionados com stress oxidativo e danos (atividade da enzima superóxido dismutase (SOD), peroxidação lipídica (LPO) e danos no DNA) e metabolismo energético (atividade da cadeia transportadora de eletrões (ETS) e da enzima lactato desidrogenase (LDH) e quantificação de Hidratos de Carbono). Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a sobrevivência diminui e que o período inter-muda é afetado durante a exposição a cenários de acidificação. No que respeita aos parâmetros de crescimento/morfométricos, larvas do cenário de acidificação apresentam uma tendência para crescimento diminuído, menor peso e comprimento de carapaça. As análises bioquímicas realizadas indicam a ocorrência de stress oxidativo sob condições de acidificação. Respostas ao nível do metabolismo energético não variaram significativamente entre tratamentos. Os resultados apontam também para que fases larvares possam possuir um sistema antioxidante ainda em desenvolvimento, tornando-as mais suscetíveis ao stress oxidativo. As fases larvares são uma fase vulnerável e crucial no ciclo de vida das espécies, influenciando o recrutamento e a renovação de stocks. Este estudo contribui para um melhor entendimento sobre a vulnerabilidade desta espécie num cenário de alterações climáticas – Acidificação dos oceanos – ao endereçar os mecanismos envolvidos nas respostas deste crustáceo a este agente causador de stress.

Small states and the promotion of their foreign policy agenda in the international scenario: Trinidad and Tobago and the Kyoto Protocol

Este estudio de caso busca identificar los elementos del portafolio de política exterior de Trinidad y Tobago que le permitieron promover exitosamente sus intereses en el Protocolo de Kioto. Al hacer esto, este texto analizará las limitaciones de Trinidad y Tobago en términos de vulnerabilidades de localización, burocracia y recursos. Posteriormente, una revisión del portafolio de política exterior de este Estado ilustrará el uso de estrategias de creación de capacidades y de organización como lo son el contacto con actores institucionales y no gubernamentales, la formación de coaliciones y estrategias argumentativas, entre otras. Finalmente, este artículo concluirá que dichas acciones permitieron la promoción de la agenda de política exterior de Trinidad y Tobago a través de la creación de hojas de ruta y la coordinación de la incertidumbre con el Protocolo de Kioto. Para hacer esto, este trabajo se concentrará en examinar conceptos como vulnerabilidad y priorización, asimismo contrastando diferentes artículos académicos en la materia junto con documentos oficiales de Trinidad y Tobago.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

Program Annotations: Feedback for Students Learning to Program

This paper presents a novel program annotation mechanism which enables students to obtain feedback from tutors on their programs in a far simpler and more efficient way than is possible with, for example, email. A common scenario with beginning students is to email tutors with copies of their malfunctioning programs. Unfortunately the emailed program often bears little resemblance to the program the student has been trying to make work; often it is incomplete, a different version and corrupted. We propose an annotation mechanism enabling students to simply and easily annotate their programs with comments asking for help. Similarly our mechanism enables tutors to view students’ programs and to reply to their comments in a simple and structured fashion. This means students can get frequent and timely feedback on their programs; tutors can provide such feedback efficiently, and hence students’ learning is greatly improved.

Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios

The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a heterogeneous environment. The event abstraction model comprises a hierarchy of events derived from different log sources such as system audit data, application logs, captured network traffic, and intrusion detection system alerts. Unlike existing event abstraction models where low-level information may be discarded during the abstraction process, the event abstraction model presented in this work preserves all low-level information as well as providing high-level information in the form of abstract events. The event abstraction model presented in this work was designed independently of any particular IDS and thus may be used by any IDS, intrusion forensic tools, or monitoring tools. The second part of the research investigates the use of unification for multi-step attack scenario specification and detection. Multi-step attack scenarios are hard to specify and detect as they often involve the correlation of events from multiple sources which may be affected by time uncertainty. The unification algorithm provides a simple and straightforward scenario matching mechanism by using variable instantiation where variables represent events as defined in the event abstraction model. The third part of the research looks into the solution to address time uncertainty. Clock synchronisation is crucial for detecting multi-step attack scenarios which involve logs from multiple hosts. Issues involving time uncertainty have been largely neglected by intrusion detection research. The system presented in this research introduces two techniques for addressing time uncertainty issues: clock skew compensation and clock drift modelling using linear regression. An off-line IDS prototype for detecting multi-step attacks has been implemented. The prototype comprises two modules: implementation of the abstract event system architecture (AESA) and of the scenario detection module. The scenario detection module implements our signature language developed based on the Python programming language syntax and the unification-based scenario detection engine. The prototype has been evaluated using a publicly available dataset of real attack traffic and event logs and a synthetic dataset. The distinct features of the public dataset are the fact that it contains multi-step attacks which involve multiple hosts with clock skew and clock drift. These features allow us to demonstrate the application and the advantages of the contributions of this research. All instances of multi-step attacks in the dataset have been correctly identified even though there exists a significant clock skew and drift in the dataset. Future work identified by this research would be to develop a refined unification algorithm suitable for processing streams of events to enable an on-line detection. In terms of time uncertainty, identified future work would be to develop mechanisms which allows automatic clock skew and clock drift identification and correction. The immediate application of the research presented in this thesis is the framework of an off-line IDS which processes events from heterogeneous sources using abstraction and which can detect multi-step attack scenarios which may involve time uncertainty.