Longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequality

This paper considers the characterisation and measurement of income-related health inequality using longitudinal data. The paper elucidates the nature of the Jones and Lopez Nicholas (2004) index of “health-related income mobility” and explains the negative values of the index that have been reported in all the empirical applications to date. The paper further questions the value of their index to health policymakers and proposes an alternative index of “income-related health mobility” that measures whether the pattern of health changes is biased in favour of those with initially high or low incomes. We illustrate our work by investigating mobility in the General Health Questionnaire measure of psychological well-being over the first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1999.

New Evidence on Allyn Young’s Style and Influence as a Teacher

This paper publishes the hitherto unpublished correspondence between Allyn Abbott Young’s biographer Charles Blitch and 17 of Young’s former students or associates. Together with related biographical and archival material, the paper shows the way in which this adds to our knowledge of Young’s considerable influence as a teacher upon some of the twentieth century’s greatest economists. The correspondents are as follows: James W Angell, Colin Clark, Arthur H Cole, Lauchlin Currie, Melvin G de Chazeau, Eleanor Lansing Dulles, Howard S Ellis, Frank W Fetter, Earl J Hamilton, Seymour S Harris, Richard S Howey, Nicholas Kaldor, Melvin M Knight

An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macroeconomic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the microstructure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets

A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test under Cross Section Dependence

We propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test for testing the null hypothesis of unit-roots processes against the alternative that allows a proportion of units to be generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes and a remaining non-zero proportion to be generated by unit root processes. The proposed test is simple to implement and accommodates cross sectional dependence. We show that the distribution of the test statistic is free of nuisance parameters as (N, T) −! 1. Monte Carlo simulation shows that our test holds correct size and under the hypothesis that data are generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes has a better power than the recent test proposed in Pesaran [2007]. Various applications are provided.

The role of egg antigens, cytokines in granuloma formation in murine schistosomiasis mansoni

The induction of granuloma formation by soluble egg antigens (SEA) of Schistosoma mansoni is accompanied by T cell-mediated lymphokine production that regulates the intensity of the response. In the present study we have examined the ability of SDS-PAGE fractioned SEA proteins to elicit granulomas and lymphokine production in infected and egg-immunized mice. At the acute stage of infection SEA fractions (<21, 25-30, 32-38, 60-66, 70-90, 93-125, and > 200 kD) that elicited pulmonary granulomas also elicited IL-2, IL-4 lymphokine production. At the chronic stage a diminished number of fractions (60-66, 70-90, 93-125, and > 200 kD) were able to elicit granulomas with an overall decrease in IL-2, IL-4 production. Granulomas were elicited by larval-egg crossreactive and egg-specific fractions at both the acute and chronic stage of the infection. Examination of lymphokine production from egg-immunized mice demonstrated that as early as 4 days IL-2 was produced by spleen cells stimulated with <21, 32-38, 40-46, 93-125, and >200 kD fractions. By 16 days, IL-2production was envoked by 8 of 9 fractions. IL-4 production at 4 days in response to all fractions was minimal while at 16 days IL-4 was elicited with the < 21, 25-30, 50-56, 93-125, and > 200 kD fractions. The present study reveals differences in the range of SEA fractions able to elicit granulomas and IL-2, IL-4 production between acute and chronic stages of infection. Additionally, this study demonstrates sequential (IL-2 followed by IL-4) lymphokine production during the primary egg antigen response.

A Sensitivity analysis of poverty definitions

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of several estimators related to household income, to explore how some details of the definitions of the variables concerned influence the values of the common estimates, such as the mean, median and (poverty) rates. The purpose of this study is to highlight that some of the operational definitions entail an element of arbitrariness which leaves an undesirable stamp on the inferences made. The analyses use both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal (panel) component of the EU-SILC database.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

The association of education with body mass index and waist circumference in the EPIC-PANACEA study

Background To examine the association of education with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Method This study included 141,230 male and 336,637 female EPIC-participants, who were recruited between 1992 and 2000. Education, which was assessed by questionnaire, was classified into four categories; BMI and WC, measured by trained personnel in most participating centers, were modeled as continuous dependent variables. Associations were estimated using multilevel mixed effects linear regression models. Results Compared with the lowest education level, BMI and WC were significantly lower for all three higher education categories, which was consistent for all countries. Women with university degree had a 2.1 kg/m2 lower BMI compared with women with lowest education level. For men, a statistically significant, but less pronounced difference was observed (1.3 kg/m2). The association between WC and education level was also of greater magnitude for women: compared with the lowest education level, average WC of women was lower by 5.2 cm for women in the highest category. For men the difference was 2.9 cm. Conclusion In this European cohort, there is an inverse association between higher BMI as well as higher WC and lower education level. Public Health Programs that aim to reduce overweight and obesity should primarily focus on the lower educated population.

Genetic variability of the mTOR pathway and prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation on Cancer (EPIC)

The mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) signal transduction pathway integrates various signals, regulating ribosome biogenesis and protein synthesis as a function of available energy and amino acids, and assuring an appropriate coupling of cellular proliferation with increases in cell size. In addition, recent evidence has pointed to an interplay between the mTOR and p53 pathways. We investigated the genetic variability of 67 key genes in the mTOR pathway and in genes of the p53 pathway which interact with mTOR. We tested the association of 1,084 tagging SNPs with prostate cancer risk in a study of 815 prostate cancer cases and 1,266 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We chose the SNPs (n = 11) with the strongest association with risk (p<0.01) and sought to replicate their association in an additional series of 838 prostate cancer cases and 943 controls from EPIC. In the joint analysis of first and second phase two SNPs of the PRKCI gene showed an association with risk of prostate cancer (ORallele = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78–0.94, p = 1.3×10−3 for rs546950 and ORallele = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76–0.93, p = 5.6×10−4 for rs4955720). We confirmed this in a meta-analysis using as replication set the data from the second phase of our study jointly with the first phase of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project. In conclusion, we found an association with prostate cancer risk for two SNPs belonging to PRKCI, a gene which is frequently overexpressed in various neoplasms, including prostate cancer.

Oocyst wall formation and composition in coccidian parasites

The oocyst wall of coccidian parasites is a robust structure that is resistant to a variety of environmental and chemical insults. This resilience allows oocysts to survive for long periods, facilitating transmission from host to host. The wall is bilayered and is formed by the sequential release of the contents of two specialized organelles - wall forming body 1 and wall forming body 2 - found in the macrogametocyte stage of Coccidia. The oocyst wall is over 90% protein but few of these proteins have been studied. One group is cysteine-rich and may be presumed to crosslink via disulphide bridges, though this is yet to be investigated. Another group of wall proteins is rich in tyrosine. These proteins, which range in size from 8-31 kDa, are derived from larger precursors of 56 and 82 kDa found in the wall forming bodies. Proteases may catalyze processing of the precursors into tyrosine-rich peptides, which are then oxidatively crosslinked in a reaction catalyzed by peroxidases. In support of this hypothesis, the oocyst wall has high levels of dityrosine bonds. These dityrosine crosslinked proteins may provide a structural matrix for assembly of the oocyst wall and contribute to its resilience.

A genome-wide association study reveals variants in ARL15 that influence adiponectin levels.

The adipocyte-derived protein adiponectin is highly heritable and inversely associated with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD). We meta-analyzed 3 genome-wide association studies for circulating adiponectin levels (n = 8,531) and sought validation of the lead single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5 additional cohorts (n = 6,202). Five SNPs were genome-wide significant in their relationship with adiponectin (P< or =5x10(-8)). We then tested whether these 5 SNPs were associated with risk of T2D and CHD using a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P< or =0.011 to declare statistical significance for these disease associations. SNPs at the adiponectin-encoding ADIPOQ locus demonstrated the strongest associations with adiponectin levels (P-combined = 9.2x10(-19) for lead SNP, rs266717, n = 14,733). A novel variant in the ARL15 (ADP-ribosylation factor-like 15) gene was associated with lower circulating levels of adiponectin (rs4311394-G, P-combined = 2.9x10(-8), n = 14,733). This same risk allele at ARL15 was also associated with a higher risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] = 1.12, P = 8.5x10(-6), n = 22,421) more nominally, an increased risk of T2D (OR = 1.11, P = 3.2x10(-3), n = 10,128), and several metabolic traits. Expression studies in humans indicated that ARL15 is well-expressed in skeletal muscle. These findings identify a novel protein, ARL15, which influences circulating adiponectin levels and may impact upon CHD risk.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in Europe: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND In previous meta-analyses, tea consumption has been associated with lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. It is unclear, however, if tea is associated inversely over the entire range of intake. Therefore, we investigated the association between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in a European population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centers in 8 European countries and consists of a total of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,835 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Country-specific Hazard Ratios (HR) for incidence of type 2 diabetes were obtained after adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors using a Cox regression adapted for a case-cohort design. Subsequently, country-specific HR were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Tea consumption was studied as categorical variable (0, >0-<1, 1-<4, ≥ 4 cups/day). The dose-response of the association was further explored by restricted cubic spline regression. Country specific medians of tea consumption ranged from 0 cups/day in Spain to 4 cups/day in United Kingdom. Tea consumption was associated inversely with incidence of type 2 diabetes; the HR was 0.84 [95%CI 0.71, 1.00] when participants who drank ≥ 4 cups of tea per day were compared with non-drinkers (p(linear trend) = 0.04). Incidence of type 2 diabetes already tended to be lower with tea consumption of 1-<4 cups/day (HR = 0.93 [95%CI 0.81, 1.05]). Spline regression did not suggest a non-linear association (p(non-linearity) = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE A linear inverse association was observed between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes. People who drink at least 4 cups of tea per day may have a 16% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-tea drinkers.

Determinants of non- response to a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND This paper discusses whether baseline demographic, socio-economic, health variables, length of follow-up and method of contacting the participants predict non-response to the invitation for a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the European multi-center EPIC-PANACEA study. METHODS Over 500.000 participants from several centers in ten European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were contacted 2-11 years later to update data on lifestyle and body weight. Length of follow-up as well as the method of approaching differed between the collaborating study centers. Non-responders were compared with responders using multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Overall response for the second assessment was high (81.6%). Compared to postal surveys, centers where the participants completed the questionnaire by phone attained a higher response. Response was also high in centers with a short follow-up period. Non-response was higher in participants who were male (odds ratio 1.09 (confidence interval 1.07; 1.11), aged under 40 years (1.96 (1.90; 2.02), living alone (1.40 (1.37; 1.43), less educated (1.35 (1.12; 1.19), of poorer health (1.33 (1.27; 1.39), reporting an unhealthy lifestyle and who had either a low (<18.5 kg/m2, 1.16 (1.09; 1.23)) or a high BMI (>25, 1.08 (1.06; 1.10); especially ≥30 kg/m2, 1.26 (1.23; 1.29)). CONCLUSIONS Cohort studies may enhance cohort maintenance by paying particular attention to the subgroups that are most unlikely to respond and by an active recruitment strategy using telephone interviews.

Seroconversion for west Nile and St. Louis encephalitis viruses among sentinel horses in Colombia

We prospectively sampled flavivirus-naïve horses in northern Colombia to detect West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) seroconversion events, which would indicate the current circulation of these viruses. Overall, 331 (34.1%) of the 971 horses screened were positive for past infection with flaviviruses upon initial sampling in July 2006. During the 12-month study from July 2006-June 2007, 33 WNV seroconversions and 14 SLEV seroconversions were detected, most of which occurred in the department of Bolivar. The seroconversion rates of horses in Bolivar for the period of March-June 2007 reached 12.4% for WNV and 6.7% for SLEV. These results comprise the first serologic evidence of SLEV circulation in Colombia. None of the horses sampled developed symptoms of encephalitis within three years of initial sampling. Using seroconversions in sentinel horses, we demonstrated an active circulation of WNV and SLEV in northern Colombia, particularly in the department of Bolivar. The absence of WNV-attributed equine or human disease in Colombia and elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin remains a topic of debate and speculation.