The impact of red light cameras on safety in Arizona

Red light cameras (RLCs) have been used in a number of US cities to yield a demonstrable reduction in red light violations; however, evaluating their impact on safety (crashes) has been relatively more difficult. Accurately estimating the safety impacts of RLCs is challenging for several reasons. First, many safety related factors are uncontrolled and/or confounded during the periods of observation. Second, “spillover” effects caused by drivers reacting to non-RLC equipped intersections and approaches can make the selection of comparison sites difficult. Third, sites selected for RLC installation may not be selected randomly, and as a result may suffer from the regression to the mean bias. Finally, crash severity and resulting costs need to be considered in order to fully understand the safety impacts of RLCs. Recognizing these challenges, a study was conducted to estimate the safety impacts of RLCs on traffic crashes at signalized intersections in the cities of Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona. Twenty-four RLC equipped intersections in both cities are examined in detail and conclusions are drawn. Four different evaluation methodologies were employed to cope with the technical challenges described in this paper and to assess the sensitivity of results based on analytical assumptions. The evaluation results indicated that both Phoenix and Scottsdale are operating cost-effective installations of RLCs: however, the variability in RLC effectiveness within jurisdictions is larger in Phoenix. Consistent with findings in other regions, angle and left-turn crashes are reduced in general, while rear-end crashes tend to increase as a result of RLCs.

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Use of expert panels in highway safety: A critique

Expert panels have been used extensively in the development of the "Highway Safety Manual" to extract research information from highway safety experts. While the panels have been used to recommend agendas for new and continuing research, their primary role has been to develop accident modification factors—quantitative relationships between highway safety and various highway safety treatments. Because the expert panels derive quantitative information in a “qualitative” environment and because their findings can have significant impacts on highway safety investment decisions, the expert panel process should be described and critiqued. This paper is the first known written description and critique of the expert panel process and is intended to serve professionals wishing to conduct such panels.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Effect of clear zone widths on run-off-road crash outcomes

Current guidelines on clear zone selection and roadside hazard management adopt the US approach based on the likelihood of roadside encroachment by drivers. This approach is based on the available research conducted in the 1960s and 70s. Over time, questions have been raised regarding the robustness and applicability of this research in Australasia in 2010 and in the Safe System context. This paper presents a review of the fundamental research relating to selection of clear zones. Results of extensive rural highway statistical data modelling suggest that a significant proportion of run-off-road to the left casualty crashes occurs in clear zones exceeding 13 m. They also show that the risk of run-off-road to the left casualty crashes was 21% lower where clear zones exceeded 8 m when compared with clear zones in the 4 – 8 m range. The paper discusses a possible approach to selection of clear zones based on managing crash outcomes, rather than on the likelihood of roadside encroachment which is the basis for the current practice. It is expected that this approach would encourage selection of clear zones wider than 8 m when the combination of other road features suggests higher than average casualty crash risk.

Safety in occupational driving : development of a driver behaviour scale for the workplace context

International statistics indicate that occupational, or work-related driving, crashes are the most common cause of workplace injury, death, and absence from work. The majority of research examining unsafe driver behavior in the workplace has relied on general road safety questionnaires. However, past research has failed to consider the organizational context in the use of these questionnaires, and as such, there is ambiguity in the dimensions constituting occupational driving. Using a theoretical model developed by Hockey (1993, 1997), this article proposes and validates a new scale of occupational driver behavior. This scale incorporates four dimensions of driver behavior that are influenced by demanding workplace conditions; speeding, rule violation, inattention, and driving while tired. Following a content validation process, three samples of occupational drivers in Australia were used to assess the scale. Data from the first sample (n=145) were used to reduce the number of scale items and provide an assessment of the factorial validity of the scale. Data from the second sample (n=645) were then used to confirm the factor structure and psychometric properties of the scale including reliability and construct validity. Finally, data from the third sample (n=248) were used to establish criterion validity. The results indicated that the scale is a reliable and valid measure of occupational driver behavior.

Use of ITS to improve level crossings safety : open issues

Level crossing crashes have been shown to result in enormous human and financial cost to society. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) [5] a total of 632 Railway Level crossing (RLX) collisions, between trains and road vehicles, occurred in Australia between 2001 and June 2009. The cost of RLX collisions runs into the tens of millions of dollars each year in Australia [6]. In addition, loss of life and injury are commonplace in instances where collisions occur. Based on estimates that 40% of rail related fatalities occur at level crossings [12], it is estimated that 142 deaths between 2001 and June 2009 occurred at RLX. The aim of this paper is to (i) summarise crash patterns in Australia, (ii) review existing international ITS interventions to improve level crossing and (iii) highlights open human factors research related issues. Human factors (e.g., driver error, lapses or violations) have been evidenced as a significant contributing factor in RLX collisions, with drivers of road vehicles particularly responsible for many collisions. Unintentional errors have been found to contribute to 46% of RLX collisions [6] and appear to be far more commonplace than deliberate violations. Humans have been found to be inherently inadequate at using the sensory information available to them to facilitate safe decision-making at RLX and tend to underestimate the speed of approaching large objects due to the non-linear increases in perceived size [6]. Collisions resulting from misjudgements of train approach speed and distance are common [20]. Thus, a fundamental goal for improved RLX safety is the provision of sufficient contextual information to road vehicle drivers to facilitate safe decision-making regarding crossing behaviours.

Older adults’ safety perceptions of driving situations: Towards a new driving self-regulation scale

The term ‘driving self-restriction’ is used in the road safety literature to describe the behaviour of some older drivers. It includes the notion that older drivers will avoid driving in specific, usually self-identified situations, such as those in which safety is compromised. We sought to identify the situations that older drivers report avoiding; and, to determine the adequacy of a key measure of such behaviour. A sample of 75 drivers aged 65 years and older completed Baldock et al.’s modification of the Driving Habits Questionnaire avoidance items (Baldock et al., 2006), the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire, and open-ended items that elicited written descriptions of the most and least safe driving situation. Consistent with previous results, we found a relatively low level of driving self-restriction and infrequent episodes of aggressive violations. However, when combined with the situation descriptions, these data suggest that Driving Habits Questionnaire did not cover all of the situations that older drivers might choose avoid. We suggest that a new avoidance scale is needed and we present a new item pool that may be used for this purpose.

Developing a motorcycle and scooter safety compendium for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

Motorcycle and scooter crashes are significant contributors to road trauma in many low, medium and high income countries. The APEC Transportation Working Group has commissioned CARRS-Q to develop a compendium of best practice measures that can be used to reduce crashes, post-crash trauma and associated socio-economic costs. The compendium will be informed by findings from a literature review and an expert survey. The literature review examined motorcycle and scooter safety usage and fatalities along with socio-cultural factors which might influence safety in each economy. A discussion is provided regarding the processes involved in the expert survey and how this might be integrated with the findings from the literature review. The implications for developing the compendium are discussed as is the next step of a workshop to further disseminate findings. This will enable the identification of important motorcycle safety issues in APEC economies and implications for implementation of countermeasures.

Creating an effective prevention curriculum to reduce transport risks and injuries

Adolescent injury is a significant health concern and can be a result of the adolescents engagement in transport-related behaviours. There is however significant planning and formative research needed to inform prevention programme design. This presentation reports on the development and evaluation of a curriculum programme that was shown to be effective in reducing transport-related risks and injuries. Early adolescents report injuries resulting from a number of transport-related behaviours including those associated with riding a bicycle, a motorcycle, and as a passenger (survey of 209 Year 9 students). In focus groups, students (n=30) were able to describe the context of transport risks and injuries. Such information provided evidence of the need for an intervention and ecologically valid data on which to base programme design including insights into the language, culture and development of adolescents and their experiences with transport risks. Additional information about teaching practices and implementation issues were explored in interviews with 13 teachers. A psychological theory was selected to operationalise the design of the programmes that drew on such preparatory data. The programme, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth was evaluated with 197 participating and 137 control students (13–14 year olds). Results showed a significant difference between the intervention and control groups from baseline to 6-month follow-up in a number of transport-related risk behaviours and transport-related injuries. The programme thus demonstrated potential in reduce early adolescents transport risk behaviours and associated harm. Discussion will involve the implications of the development research process in designing road safety interventions.

Trends in impaired driving in Australia in 2010 : a status report

This paper reviews the status of alcohol, drugs and traffic safety in Australia, with particular emphasis on developments in the period 2008-2010. Australian jurisdictions have made impressive improvements in road safety since the early 1970s. Enforcement and public education campaigns that specifically target drink driving have been successful, with resultant long-term reduction in alcohol-related fatalities. There is a high level of community disapproval of drink driving and strong support for countermeasures. Many best-practice countermeasures targeting impaired driving are in place, including general prevention/ deterrence programs such as random breath testing (RBT), random roadside drug testing legal alcohol limits, responsible service of alcohol programs, public education and advertising campaigns and designated driver programs, and offender management programs such as driver licensing penalties and fines, alcohol ignition interlocks and vehicle impoundment for high risk drink drivers, and offender education programs. There continue to be enhancements occurring, particularly in the areas of drug-impaired driving and offender management, but also in addressing the fundamental policy and legislative framework to address impaired driving (e.g., a current national debate about lowering the permissible blood alcohol for all drivers from 0.05 to 0.02 or 0.00 gm/100 ml BAC). However, there are major challenges that may be impacting on programs targeting impaired driving, including the rapid development of a binge drinking culture among young Australians, the extension of trading hours of licensed premises, continued problems with secondary supply of alcohol to minors, and increases in the marketing of alcopops and ready-to-drink spirit-based beverages. This paper addresses the question: Are impaired driving countermeasures in Australia continuing to achieve reductions in road traumas and rates of offending, or are they plateauing? If they are plateauing, is this due to declining effectiveness of countermeasures or the need to ‘hold the line’ against societal influences encouraging impaired driving?